I'm still betting on 30th anniversary, 2027.
Even if the story is somehow ready to finish before that, everyhone involved will want to stretch it out to that landmark. If that involves Oda slowing down and only doing two chapters a month or just stretching otu final battles/epilogue, I can't see it ending much sooner than that.
Wano remainder-6 months (~February 2022)
Elbaf-1 year (2022)
Odds and ends- 1 year (2023)
Laugh Tale- 1 year (2024)
Final War- 3 years (2027)
Thats assuming current pace of about 40 chapters a year.
Odds and ends includes things like final poneglyph, Shanks, Revolutionaries, and Vegapunk, that can fit in anywhere. Final War includes 1 on 1 fights for everyone as an indulgence the final arc can afford, so that'd be about a year by itself if there's not a lot of musical chairs.
Elbaf and Laugh Tale can both easily be shorter arcs, regardless of all their buildup, and could conceivably be done in 15-20 chapters each like the old days, especially if he skimps on the fight stuff. Its hard to imagine Elbaf being that short after all this time, but Fishman Island was overhyped and was relatively short too So if Oda DOES make those short, then you can take off a whole year.
No idea what Laugh Tale will hold… but it might just be the trip to get there, then the trasure room and Joy Boy's flashback. It may not need lots of action and enemies if its treated more like just a lore dump setup arc, like Jaya or Zou were.
Once Odas in the thick of the final war, who knows, he may not be able to help himmself and that might take 8 years by itself. But he seems really ready to be done. So while his 5 years remaining (now 3) doesn't make any sense, I wouldn't count on it being a decade+ either.
But if we get to Elbaf and that takes two years like the arcs we have been getting then its all out the window. Unless that's also used to wrap Big Mom, Shanks, Vegapunk, etc.
It's also possible Oda is going to do something crazy and the big war will start now before they even get to LT and uncover the ancient secrets that are supposed to start the war, in which case a lot of the groundwork and action can be done between arcs and off camera, and that'll save some time.