Revisiting the thing I posted just a couple days ago with the new figure…
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- Oda says timeskip marks 50% of the series (August 30, 2010) - Chapter 597 (+50% final chapter 1194)
- Oda says is 60% complete (December 15, 2012) - Chapter 691 (+40% final chapter 1151)
- Editor Suguru Sugita says is 70% complete (July 17, 2015) - Chapter 793 (+30% final chapter 1132)
- Oda says is 65% complete (July 20, 2016) - Chapter 832 (+35% final chapter 1280)
- Oda says is 80% complete (July 21, 2018) - Chapter 912 (+20% final chapter 1140)
- Oda says 5 years left - (Nov 19, 2019) -Chapter 955 (35 chapters a year, final chapter 1130. 40 chapters per year, final chapter 1155,)
- Oda says 4.5 years left- (August 26, 2020) - Chapter 988 (35 chapters a year, final chapter 1145. 40 chapters per year, final chapter 1168)
Still completely in line with the other estimates, outside of the outlier 65% guess, which to be fair he made at the start of the Big Mom arc, and it seems likely that went longer than he expected and he didn't decid to offload some of its plot points till the end.
Notably, new estimate with 35-40 chapters a year puts it perfectly in line with his 60% guess, and within spitting distance of his 50% guess.
The overall consistency really does seem to indicate a pretty solid overall chapter plan, if he was always referring to overall series length rather than number of years needed to get there. But even timetable kind of works out.
Chapter 1 was July 19, 1997 and timeskip in October 4, 2010. So the series would have been just entering it 14th year at that point. So whether he meant time or chapters, it hitting the finale after chapter 1200 at year 30 seems pretty damn consistent for just a ballpark guess. [/hide]
Then there's our estimate of 7 years left
[hide](30th anniversary)- 35 chapters a year, final chapter 1233, 40 chapters a year final chapter 1268. Though I'd err closer to 35 chapters a year at this point.
That comes out to a bit less than the 60% estimate, but doesn't add too many more years while still allowing SOME time for stories to breathe. Matches Oda's desire to finish while also matching his history of underestimating how long till specific events happen. And at 10 chapters a volume, that'd be 24.5-28.4 volumes from where 97 stops, which could bring it to a nice 125 volumes.
I estimated 120 for years until the Big Mom arc went long, and then 130 seemed more reasonable after that given Wano was going to be lengthy, but Oda has doubled down on timetable since then. So…
.
Oda probably won't end the series on the exact week of 30th anniversary, unless he's REALLY trying for that, but he might!
Oh, and just for fun, here's a post from me from November of last year, after Oda had announced his 5 year thing. We're nearly a year deeper into Wano and only now starting the fights, so its still pretty consistent with what I thought then.
I understand it was news when Oda gave a specific number but it's just… its not going to be that soon unless he really rushes the home stretch.
I thought 30 years (2027) ~1200 chapters was about right a few years ago, but the last two arcs length makes that seem way too short.
Had Big Mom been a silly little 6 month detour arc, we'd be on track to maybe finish in five years now. But it went for two years AND didn't finish any of it's plot threads, and now it looks like Wano (already a year in) is going to be at least two years itself, if not three.
Just for math's sake, 1 year=40 chapters
Wano-1.5-2 years
Elbaf-1 year
Raftel-1 year
Final war-3 years
That's almost 300 chapters, before you throw in extra subplots (Shanks, Vegapunk, revos, flashbacks, island we've been given no advance warning of, etc, stuff I'd slot at least 1 free year to) surprises, and that 120 ch. is VERY conservative for the BIG FINALE.
Obviously only Oda knows his plans. Maybe Elbaf and Raftel will be short 10 chapter adventures before launching into the final war, and that will stay tightly focused on the Strawhats... but none of those things sound like Oda's style.
Even something like the Strawhats vs. BB pirates... if all 10 (11?) crew members get extended 1 on 1 fights as Shonen Law dictates, even if they're just 2-3 chapters apiece, that's a solid year by itself. And the main Luffy/BB even being longer (ala Water 7) and well...
I used to calculate it at 15 years to go! Once Wano is done I'll feel safer calling a shorter number than a decade, but... seven years is the bare minimum I can see at this point, and that's if Oda really rushes through some of it. No way its actually five unless something really crazy happens.
It never shrinks because Oda takes what we already knew and estimated around, and then makes that arc longer than any arc before it. Dresserossa taking two years was really unexpected, we kind of thought that would be a short stop and Doflamingo would carry over a couple small arcs instead. But...
Another consideration is that the big war while epic in scope, focuses mostly on the crew's battles, and the hundreds of secondary characters we've met over the years just get a few panels here and there, much the way Dragonball handled all its end-series cameos, which could reduce the time on it significantly. I think maybe Raftel being a breather island is a place to cut some time though. Surpassing whatever obstacle is needed to get there, big treasure room, then finding out the true history (10 chapter flashback? Roger flashback?) could probably be done in half a year if the crew is by themselves when they reach it or its fairly simple like say, Little Garden was. Maybe that's where Vegapunk will be hiding and he'll just exposit everything then.
For all that Oda has historically been bad about guessing pacing on the current arc, (Skypeia was only supposed to be 1 year, Merry's death was mentioned 3 years early, Year of Sanji etc.) he maybe pretty good at overall containing an arc within the time he's willing to give it. He let himself indulge in the first half of the series but has maybe been a little bit more keen about making sure stuff doesn't go too far past a certain mark in the second half and has more readily cut ideas. [/hide]
TLDR- Chapter 1150 seems to be what Oda is aiming for and he might hit it if he really wants to, but 1200 is the bare minimum for it to breathe as we understand the remaining details, ~1250-1300 seems best. But probably no longer.
As much as we're conditioned to thinking the series will go forever and Oda can't help himself and of course he'll make the viking arc huge and have the final war showcase every character ever at length… I think we have to believe he'll do what it takes to get it all done sooner than later.