@Ubiq:
People should keep in mind that the Green Party is only on the ballot in about half the states. The only thing they can accomplish is drawing votes off of the candidate whose positions are closest to their own.
Yeah, Third Parties can't win in the current policitcal system and climate, and to be honest, I think they know they can't.
The entire reason they run is because if they happen to get enough votes to be an actual Blip on the radar, the hope is that the major parties will take notice and will adopt some of their platforms going forward to try to entice some of their voters.
I'm EXTREMELY sure Jill Stein knows this and is basically just using the anger the Bernie or Busters have right now to play them for votes.
It gets even more ridiculous when you realize that, when Bernie switched to supporting Hillary, his Supporters didn't form one unified chunk of opposition. They splintered. A very large chunk followed Bernie to support Hillary of course, but the remaining Bernie or Busters didn't all flock to one place.
Some say they're backing Jill Stein, Some say Gary Johnson, some still want to write in Bernie, and some want to stay home and abstain from voting.
The 3rd parties are already severely handicapped by the fact that the vast majority of the electorate sticks to the rigid 2 party system, even if they don't necessarily back a specific party. Then there's the fact that the media doesn't focus on them too heavily as a result. Hillary and Trump are gonna be EVERYWHERE for the next few months and even if they can squeak up enough to be in the debates, Stein and Johnson won't be getting much media play.
Add the aforementioned fractioning of the Bernie or Bust folks and you get possibly an increase in the votes they get for sure, but nowhere near enough to actually win.
To underscore the fact that they flat out can't win, I've found this article on a Libertarian news site.
This was linked to me when I said the 3rd parties had no chance by a Bernie or Buster trying to convince me we can "Finally Shatter the 2 Party system!" this time around.
Now, remember this. This was shared by a Bernie or Buster as the proof that it's possible for a 3rd party candidate to win. It's also a write-up about the chances of the Libertarian party candidate written for a site with "Libertarian" in the title. It's not a stretch to say these people are gonna paint the Libertarian in the absolute best light they can.
Even they admit he can't win in this article.
Here's the relevant quote:
@Libertarian Republic Article:
Think about it: 50% of the electorate is unaffiliated voters. So off the bat, half the country has no loyalty to either party. Take into consideration that each party has a sizable group of people are beyond pissed at their party’s choice and you have a perfect storm.
Also remember that in a three-way race things get interesting. The benchmark for winning the presidential election is 270 electoral votes — if Johnson is able to win just one or two states it could prevent any candidate from reaching that mark. If that were to happen the House of Representatives would be tasked with picking the president. In such a situation, Johnson could emerge as the rational, non-divisive choice.
Bolded the most important bit.
The strategy put forth here is not to actually win.
This website, which again, is a libertarian website… so they have EVERY reason to paint their candidate's chances in the absolute best possible light, is advocating he basically try to be a spoiler candidate.
This is laughable absurd because it requires a lot of things happen perfectly for this guy:
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He needs to win at least 1 or 2 states, when again, everything is already stacked against him.
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He needs the ones he wins to be big enough to cause an actual dent in the electoral count. Too little, and Trump or Hillary wins without him and he becomes a footnote.
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He needs Hillary and Trump to be basically neck-in-neck in all the other states they win. If one of them pulls ahead to a significant degree, this plan is bunk
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He also needs to hurt them both equally. If he takes two states for example that were both polling blue, he didn't do anything that would help HIM win, he just elected Donald Trump.
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Then after ALL of that, if we assume everything goes right and he steals just enough electoral votes from both candidates that nobody wins.... We have to then rely on Congress, specfically the House of Representatives, to pick the President. We also have to trust that they'll compromise and all agree to make the choice to back the guy who is not one of the two major parties and who, in this scenario, definitely didn't get the popular vote or the majority of the delegates.
This "Plan" screws over democracy and puts the election of the president in the hands of the House of Representatives. Let me remind you, they've been Republican-controlled for a VERY long time and any scenario where the Dems take the House back this upcoming election pretty much goes hand in hand with a Hillary Clinton presidency.... and even that's a long shot. So chances are, if she doesn't win, the Republicans maintaining controll of the house... meaning the Republicans get to pick the new president.... meaning Probably Trump. They won't stop the partisan bickering and gridlock to pick a THIRD PARTY candidate for president. There's just no way it's happening.
This is at best, a ridiculous pipe dream and at worse, a con on the side of the Libertarians to try to trick angry Bernie or Busters into helping further their agenda, potentially at the cost of electing Trump.