Eh…...I guess, Kasich?
Indecision 2016 - In Soviet Russia, we elect american president!
-
-
Out of sheer curiosity, who is your favourite republican presidential candidate and why?
If "favourite" is a strong word, since they all seem pretty terrible, than the one you dislike the least.
Alan Alda.
He was great on The West Wing.
-
-
so…ive heard and read Trump wants to ban not only the whole internet from the USA,but also free speech as well
do you think it can happen? i dont think it would due to multiple businesses would go out quickly and sink the economy further. -
Out of sheer curiosity, who is your favourite republican presidential candidate and why?
If "favourite" is a strong word, since they all seem pretty terrible, than the one you dislike the least.
Kasich, for frequently being the voice of moderation, and Christie, for understanding the difference between defying politically correctness and straight up being a bigoted asshole and choosing to do the former.
If I had to pick a likely candidate, though, I'd take Rubio. Some of his policies are reasonable and I anticipate a hard pivot to the center if he wins the nom.
-
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/marine-le-pen-trump-muslim-ban
Even Marine le Pen thinks Trunp's Muslim ban is a bit much.
-
Out of sheer curiosity, who is your favourite republican presidential candidate and why?
If "favourite" is a strong word, since they all seem pretty terrible, than the one you dislike the least.
Trump. The more time goes on, the more he makes it clear he has NO Chance of winning the general, so I'd like him to get the nom for an easy Hilary win lol.
If we're talking which I'd mind the least actually BECOMING President? Chris Christie honestly.
Out of all the candidates we have now, Christie is the only one I've seen who is willing to compromise when the issue is important. He got slammed by his own party for taking help when Hurricane Sandy happened and even just for greeting President Obama with a handshake and a hug when he showed up in NJ during the aftermath, and he didn't apologize for that.
None of the Repubs are aligned with me on my biggest issue (LGBT Rights) but Christie, at least, has shown in the past that he accepts the direction the wind is blowing on it, and he will stop fighting against it when he realizes he's been beat. He stopped fighting Marriage equality WAY before the rest of the Republicans for example because he realized it'd go to the supreme court and that anything he tried to do to stop it on the state level at that point would have just been a waste of time and taxpayer money.
So I'd trust him more than any others to just let the advances we've gotten thus far stand at the very least.
I don't like most of his actual policies, but I feel out of any of them, he'd be the most likely to actually work with Democrats rather than put his foot down and insist it all be his way or the highway.
Switch Friend Code: SW-1795-2519-1884 • Click Here to check out my Twitch Channel
-
Didn't trump say he'd go 3rd party if he didn't get the republican nom? That would split the republican vote as well
  -
I think he pledged to not go 3rd party shortly after the first debate.
-
I hope Trump pulls a Nader campaign where nothing is accomplished besides spoiling key states for the Republicans.
-
Didn't trump say he'd go 3rd party if he didn't get the republican nom? That would split the republican vote as well
He dismissed it at first, but he´s giving some vague clues about it now for some reason.
Probably to spook the other rep. candidates. -
I think he pledged to not go 3rd party shortly after the first debate.
Since the GOP has come out as "I'm not with this idiot here" Trump has been throwing around the threat of 3rd party again
-
It's not going to happen, but I'd honestly be curious to see where the Republican party focuses its attention if he does go rogue. Trump is obviously outlandish and extremist in some respects, but on a lot of conservative Christian issues like birth control he's pretty moderate. It would leave the GOP in a weird position because they probably couldn't sway his devoted fanbase.
If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life
-
If Trump goes third party and splits that vote then the Democrats win in a electoral college landslide the likes of which hasn't been seen Reagan/Mondale.
It's kind of the best possible outcome.
-
It's not going to happen, but I'd honestly be curious to see where the Republican party focuses its attention if he does go rogue. Trump is obviously outlandish and extremist in some respects, but on a lot of conservative Christian issues like birth control he's pretty moderate. It would leave the GOP in a weird position because they probably couldn't sway his devoted fanbase.
In some points I think his religious moderation helps him with Northern racist assholes whove been icked a bit by the GOP's southern branding over the past decades (though they probably still voted R in almost all cases).
-
Don't know who the artist is…but I love them already.
[hide]
"ZA WOOORU
Immagration has stopped"
[/hide] -
  -
Every picture I've ever seen of Cruz has been of either a wax figure that was held a little too close to the fire, or of a disgruntled basketball coach disputing a foul.
~Stargazer~, ~Distance~ original stories.
3DS Friend Code: 2234-8294-8917
-
-
Ted Cruz is less genuine than Hillary Clinton by a large margin.
-
Every picture I've ever seen of Cruz has been of either a wax figure that was held a little too close to the fire, or of a disgruntled basketball coach disputing a foul.
@Monkey:
he looks like an orc that grew hair
He looks like a real life caricature.
-
-
@Daz:
I love these. So fitting.
Except Calvin's vocabulary is significantly more sophisticated than Trump's.
If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life
-
Except Calvin's vocabulary is significantly more sophisticated than Trump's.
[hide]
[/hide] -
Except Calvin's vocabulary is significantly more sophisticated than Trump's.
There's actual some truth to that.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/10/20/donald-trump-and-ben-carson-speak-grade-school-level-that-today-voters-can-quickly-grasp/LUCBY6uwQAxiLvvXbVTSUN/story.html?event=event25
Note by comparison, Calvin and Hobbes has a level somewhere between 3.6 and 4.3 depending on the book. -
@Daz:
I love these. So fitting.
[hide]http://i.imgur.com/YkaEO0I.jpg
[/hide]How DARE they sully the purity of Calvin and Hobbes with that bastard's face!!
-
Seems like the change in talking can have its ups and downs. On the one hand, using simpler words to get a point across can get everyone to understand what is being said. Sure, you won't use large words that make people sound intelligent, but people can comprehend the words and get behind them.
The problem, as the article mentions in a way, is that not only are the words simple, but the speeches get simpler as well as the explanation. It's one thing to say "The economy is in a bad position due to many factors involved, from lack of money moving around to businesses not paying taxes and putting money back into the economy", but very different from "Economy is bad, we must do something about it". The former gives off complexity and shows the politician has knowledge, while the latter is just spouting the problem and nothing else.
Part of the problem here could be with how terrible the education system can be in the states. When children grow up and have only the basic of knowledge and lingual skills, people change their way to communicate with those people. In many ways, it feels that the general populace speaks at a 6th grade level because that's all they know how to do, at least when social media/internet is involved.
-
Fact checking the candidates: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/opinion/campaign-stops/all-politicians-lie-some-lie-more-than-others.html
In other words, the Democratic candidates are about equal in honesty and the three leading Republicans all lie the most.
If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life
-
Fact checking the candidates: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/opinion/campaign-stops/all-politicians-lie-some-lie-more-than-others.html
In other words, the Democratic candidates are about equal in honesty and the three leading Republicans all lie the most.
Except that Politifact is heavily biased in favour of Democrats. Truth is subjective (which is why even Politifact has a sliding scale of truth) and on similar issues, they tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Democrats. Their actual content is pretty solid (they use reliable resources that they cite, for one) but their conclusions are just all over the place.
-
Except that Politifact is heavily biased in favour of Democrats. Truth is subjective (which is why even Politifact has a sliding scale of truth) and on similar issues, they tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Democrats. Their actual content is pretty solid (they use reliable resources that they cite, for one) but their conclusions are just all over the place.
Not really. Politifact frequently acknowledges that sometimes issues are more complex or nuanced than can be evaluated in a simple true or false answer, in which case the fact-checkers tend more towards classifying the statement in question as partially true or false. The writer of the article I linked noted that their truth-o-meter isn't exactly scientific and often looks at the intention and framing of the statement, not just the related fact. While the degree of truth or lie may vary, I think overall it's pretty easy to conclude if a statement is generally true or generally false. There can be variance in some of the breakdowns but I think overall the trends are telling.
Unless, of course, you think that Politifact is systematically biased, which would put you in the small camp of unabashedly conservative news sites.
-
Reality has a well-known liberal bias; clearly the only way to adjust for said bias is to unskew the results.
-
Rep debate tonight. Trump still in a commanding lead according to recent polls.
Cruz is next
Then Rubio
Then Carson
Everyone else is negligible. Keep in mind Romney won the nomination with less support than what Trump has now. These debates always seem to bring forth contenders to Trump's lead but never knock him out of it but Cruz has never benefited greatly from them. Rubio stands a better chance to gain more ground but he has so much ground to cover it's likely not going to make a difference.
-
I've said it before and I'm going to say it again. I don't even count Trump as a contender. Not literally but seriously. I don't care how far up in the polls he is and how much we and the media talk about him the man will never win the Republican nomination. I still have my money on Cruz or Rubio. Going all in I'd bet Rubio.
At least that would be the smarter decision.
-
Rep debate tonight. Trump still in a commanding lead according to recent polls.
Cruz is next
Then Rubio
Then Carson
Everyone else is negligible. Keep in mind Romney won the nomination with less support than what Trump has now. These debates always seem to bring forth contenders to Trump's lead but never knock him out of it but Cruz has never benefited greatly from them. Rubio stands a better chance to gain more ground but he has so much ground to cover it's likely not going to make a difference.
While the nomination is based partly on public opinion, it's also decided by all the leaders of the party, and because of that, Trump is never going to get it when the actual convention comes around. Yes, he has a very specific base, but he can't grow past the base of racists, is toxic for the party, and can't win the real deal. He's too utterly disliked by everyone that isn't in that small base. He won't be the nominee.
Now, if he was outrageously popular like he was getting 80% of the votes in polls, that'd be different. If you can get the majority of republicans you can win the election. But just getting 30% of 50% of the country isn't going to win. Trump as actual candidate would be one of the largest shutouts in history.
-
Jeb is finally having a good day.
-
While the nomination is based partly on public opinion, it's also decided by all the leaders of the party, and because of that, Trump is never going to get it when the actual convention comes around. Yes, he has a very specific base, but he can't grow past the base of racists, is toxic for the party, and can't win the real deal. He's too utterly disliked by everyone that isn't in that small base. He won't be the nominee.
Now, if he was outrageously popular like he was getting 80% of the votes in polls, that'd be different. If you can get the majority of republicans you can win the election. But just getting 30% of 50% of the country isn't going to win. Trump as actual candidate would be one of the largest shutouts in history.
I wouldn't underestimate Donald Trump's chance.
One, 68 % of his supporters would still vote for him as an independent, something he made a point to reference on his twitter account (think of it this way, if he would still have more votes than any of the other Republicans got in that poll if he only got 68 % of them). That alone means he could damage any other prospective Republican candidate so that they will not win by running as an independent.
Two, Trump's support is not as small and its range is not as minuscule as you think. The latest PPP poll had Trump winning 42 % of self-described "moderate" Republicans (this is from Iowa), whereas he actually loses to Cruz amongst the more conservative ones. Hell, in New Hampshire he does far better and that's the more moderate state and is usually won by the more moderate candidate compared to Iowa. He's winning in South Carolina as well.
Yes, the party head's don't like Trump. But if they do anything keep him from obtain the nod that smells of foul play and manipulation (like if he won Iowa, New Hamsphire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the most of votes from the primaries), it's going to anger the anti-establishment base who will believe they've been cheated and only confirm that the party doesn't care for them. And that would only make an independent run by him even stronger (which Carson said he would support if they do, so keep his supporters in mind). Trump is also not the kind of person who easily fades from view, he's very good at getting attention. Let's not forget the memo by the RNC about what to do if Trump should get the nomination. That's enough to indicate they think he can. And hey, their concern about beating the Democrats outweighs their dislike of the loudmouth.
Whether or not Trump can win the general election is irreverent (especially because a lot can happen to change, as the increased focus on National Security due San Bernardino shows), the perception that he can win is what matters. I'm not saying Trump is guaranteed to get the nomination but I believe it's foolish to think that he can not. I'd wait till both Iowa and New Hampshire are over, when a lot more candidates will have dropped out for one, before making any assumptions like that.
-
I don't think Huckabee actually understands politics.
All over America I hear young people say, ‘Would you tell me what you’re gonna do? Would you get me free college? Would you make sure that I can have medical marijuana?' You know what I think we oughta tell young people, ‘We aren’t gonna give you anything! We’re gonna give you the opportunity to get off your butt and go serve your country and secure your freedom because if you don’t, nobody else is.'
Complicating things since 2009.
-
I don't think Huckabee actually understands politics.
Huckabee doesn't understand a lot of things.
-
I'm not entirely sure Huckabee isn't merely a construct of every sterotype about the far right forged into one being.
-
I don't think Huckabee actually understands politics.
So basically You'll get nothing and like it? (Pick yourself up by your bootstraps bullshit)
Thanks Mike.
-
Rubio has apparently the best actual idea of what's going on in the middle east, props also to Kasich a bit.
Too bad that…
1. They keep denying stuff we're already doing for political points.
2. Their prescription always seems to be BOOTS ON THE GROUND lol.
3. Not entirely sure they're aware of the full dimensions of what a sectarian war is about. Supporting Saudi troops in there, very stupid on all manner of levels. -
While the nomination is based partly on public opinion, it's also decided by all the leaders of the party, and because of that, Trump is never going to get it when the actual convention comes around. Yes, he has a very specific base, but he can't grow past the base of racists, is toxic for the party, and can't win the real deal. He's too utterly disliked by everyone that isn't in that small base. He won't be the nominee.
Now, if he was outrageously popular like he was getting 80% of the votes in polls, that'd be different. If you can get the majority of republicans you can win the election. But just getting 30% of 50% of the country isn't going to win. Trump as actual candidate would be one of the largest shutouts in history.
If Trump has 40% of the popular vote and Rubio and Cruz only have 14/10% respectively (citing this which was posted on Al-Jazeera) and they're the closest to Trump you still think Trump wouldn't win the nomination?
Again he has more support than Romney did at this point and as far as popularity is concerned he's not working with a small base, he IS the most popular candidate right now for the republicans. If his base is small then everyone else's base is practically non-existent. Romney as polling below 40 when he got the nomination. McCain was polling before 40 when he got the nomination. Both were at least above 30. No one is near that. You don't need 80% popularity to win the primary and be the nominee.
I haven't watched or seen highlights from tonight's debate though, that might change things. But probably not. As it stands when I last looked the people of the party want Trump far more than they want anyone else. If the party decides it doesn't want that and somehow prevents him from the getting the nomination, even though most delegates are up for popular vote, that will only divide the party further. But Trump being the front runner is already dividing the party, I know. They're in a lose lose.
My bet is that they will go with popular opinion in the end. If they go against the people then they risk a lot of damage to the party over an election they're not going to win anyway. That could potentially do a lot of damage when Reps in congress are up for re-election next year. If they side with the people they support their lost cause and they look more united as a party going into congressional re-elections.
-
If his base is small then everyone else's base is practically non-existent. Romney as polling below 40 when he got the nomination. McCain was polling before 40 when he got the nomination. Both were at least above 30. No one is near that. You don't need 80% popularity to win the primary and be the nominee.
It's not about JUST him, nor is it how much he has right now while there's still 15 candidates. Once that trims down to three or four people and there's some actual coverage of others, it changes in a hurry. Maybe no one catches up, but it rebalances to something not as extreme. Maybe him at 35 and someone else at 25.
His base is as large as it goes. He's so extreme he scares all other republicans, all middle ground that could go either way, and all democrats. Yes, he's got that 30 or 40% of republicans… but in the general election he doesn't go any higher than that, and only getting 15% of all voters is a tremendous loss... especially when he blackens all other members of the party to the point they have to dissavow him and distance themselves.
If he becomes the official candidate, the republicans lose a ton of ground in the next election, in all the races, not just the presidency. If he goes third party, they lose the presidency due to the competition, but maybe not the house and senate seats they have.
They have tons of reason to keep him out. He damages the entire party, not just the presidential run.
Best case scenario, he runs third party, and does well enough for third party to actually grow legs and be able to run in 2020, and allows/forces the republicans to finally split up between the somewhat reasonable and the insane groups. Right now it's like three different parties trying to be a cohesive whole because they have to be to get the numbers, but it just can't work for that much longer. They have to go saner and less zealot soon or they never win anything big again, especially with Texas going purple by as soon as 2020, and certainly by 2024.
-
Still one of my favorites.
-
Is the "Another Winning Performance" thing supposed to be sarcasm?
-
It's not about JUST him, nor is it how much he has right now while there's still 15 candidates. Once that trims down to three or four people and there's some actual coverage of others, it changes in a hurry. Maybe no one catches up, but it rebalances to something not as extreme. Maybe him at 35 and someone else at 25.
You make it sound like the reason no one is interested in Cruz or Rubio or Jeb is because they're conflicted right now trying to decide how Fiorina matches up with Christie or they're still undecided on if Kaisch is really conservative enough for whatever but no one cares. No has cared for a long time. It's Trump and the next guy. For awhile the next guy was Carson. Now it's nobody and that's not because there's so many of them. It's because they don't care about the rest. This is like the 5th time these people have gotten in front of America and said the same things. People didn't care about them before. They won't suddenly start caring about them now.
His base is as large as it goes. He's so extreme he scares all other republicans, all middle ground that could go either way, and all democrats. Yes, he's got that 30 or 40% of republicans… but in the general election he doesn't go any higher than that, and only getting 15% of all voters is a tremendous loss... especially when he blackens all other members of the party to the point they have to dissavow him and distance themselves.
His base is larger than McCain's or Romney's. You can't keep bringing up the size of his base as an argument to his limits because there's no base to that argument. You could have said at this point in the race Romney appealed to no Democrats because of his flip flopped stance on previous left-minded policies he made and that behavior made him equally unappealing to the far-right who believed he wasn't actually conservative enough leaving him only to really be able to claim moderate conservatives. He still went on to win the nomination though.
Also I'm not concerned with how he'll do in the general election and you can't really talk about it as if any of the other candidates would do better. No one in the middle is voting for Rubio or Cruz. People are talking about them only as a foil to Trump. No one cares about them on their own.
If he becomes the official candidate, the republicans lose a ton of ground in the next election, in all the races, not just the presidency. If he goes third party, they lose the presidency due to the competition, but maybe not the house and senate seats they have.
They're going to get hurt either way like I said. Him getting the nomination doesn't mean they will lose ground in all races. That makes no sense. Republicans would be less likely to come out and vote for republican's at state and local levels if the party chooses to not support the candidate that was popularly chosen. It shows the party and it's people are not aligned. That will do far more damage to their chances at that level than Trump getting the nomination and losing the general. If anything they will push even harder at local and state levels if Trump loses, the way they did when Obama was reelected. They can't do that if they don't believe in the party.
They have tons of reason to keep him out. He damages the entire party, not just the presidential run.
All the candidates supported or at least didn't contest a video well known to be fake so they could have an excuse to control women's vaginas. The Party damages the party. Their idea's don't work well at a national level for a number of reasons. Trump isn't the cause of that he just makes it very clear what they look like at this point when they try to appeal to their base across a national level.
-
The main thing for me when it comes to these numbers is how I don't believe them ever. I remember last election when polls everywhere were claiming the race was going to be close, that no one knew who was going to win. When the time came Obama won by a large margin and wasn't anywhere close to the poll numbers.
Part of the problem with these polls is you don't know who actually will participate and who won't. You might have the more vocal people throw in their voice, and Trump would have a more vocal base with what he's been doing. If this is the case, the truth would be that the silent majority could have a much different opinion than the vocal minority. Then you have the problem of pool numbers and where you are getting those numbers from. If you are only getting 1000's of people for these numbers, that doesn't do much for representation. If you are only polling in a few areas, you don't get a full picture either. Before I can truly consider the percents, I need the actual numbers and other relevant information.
Then there's the fact that people are either trolling, or just on the train until primaries hit. You can get people who say trump because they think it is funny, but they would never actually vote for the person. Then you have those that are cheering now, but as primaries hit and their selection is down to a few, they have to consider everything. Sure, Trump is loud but then many will realize that he's not one who should be elected and will go for someone else. So that 40% could very well be much lower, or if my faith in humanity is to be lost, it could be higher.Disclaimer: I have little idea how the process works for these statistics come up, so my complaints could be off the mark. That said, the fact that numbers have been meaningless many times before (ie last election) still makes me doubt them in the end.
-
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/ap-gop-natl-security-debate-fact-check
CHRISTIE: "When I stand across from King Hussein of Jordan and I say to him, 'You have a friend again sir, who will stand with you to fight this fight,' he'll change his mind."
THE FACTS: He won't, because he died in 1999. Jordan's king now is Abdullah II.
Complicating things since 2009.
-
I'm only halfway through the Republican debate and I have reaffirmed my position. Donald Trump is fucking nuts.
Choosing Donald Trump as the Republican nominee would be so much more toxic for the party than choosing others like Cruz and Rubio. The fact that he mainly panders to the most extreme views of his party and turns off… mostly everybody else says enough. He could never win the general election unless in the most exceptional of cases so the GOP will never pick him as their nomination. Not unless they want to lose and lose badly.
-
Trump would immediately alter his politics and rhetoric if he made it to the general. How that would go over I do wonder.
