@MajinArekkusu:
A lot of story could be wrapped up in Wano and then set up the stage for the last arcs which could be only 2 for all we know, with the defeat of Kaido and possibly even Big Mom, Elbaf and Raftel/War.
The big war could run simultaneously with the goings on on Raftel with Strawhats and the BB crew, or the war will actually be on Raftel and not on the sea or various islands surrounding it etc.
Elbaf could be as short as Zou and after that would be the last arc, involving all the important characters at once and basically in the same location.
The last arc could also consist of only huge revelations and battles, instead of the usual long arcs with a ton of set ups and adventure, members being split up etc. Thus Oda can breeze through it in 2–3 years, cause that is still a big amount of characters to showcase in battles if he goes that route.
So basically we could potentially be looking at 1–2 years of Wano left, less than a year for Elbaf and rest for the final arc, ending the series in 5–6 years max.
Sounds a whole lot like the final war arc in Naruto mixed with Game of Thrones season 8 pacing XD
I don't think every little thing will be important in One Piece. I do think that five years is a really low estimate though. "I would like to end One Piece in five years", to me, sounds a whole lot like saying, "I'd sure like to win the lottery". I mean, it's a desire, but not one with much chance of happening right?
It would feel incredibly rushed to end One Piece in 150 to 200 chapters, especially considering we're mid-Wano. The chase scene in WCI alone was 30 chapters. We just spent a full chapter on the backstory of Gyukimaru (yes, it served the purpose of solving the 'we need weapons' problem; but Oda created the 'we need weapons' problem to be solved in the first place). To resolve just the major story stuff in under 200 chapters would just require huge exposition dumps.
I mean, sure someone can just show up and hand the Straw Hats the last Road Poneglyph, but is that really satisfying? I kinda wonder then, why we would be following the story of Luffy, when Roger would seem so much more impressive by comparison. He sailed to the last island, figured out the Road Poneglyph thing, then searched the world and found them. The Straw Hats were handed that information via exposition dump on Zou, given the first Road Poneglyph. They have to overcome some pretty impressive odds to to get the poneglyphs from Big Mom and Kaido. If they were just given the last one, the only one presenting any mystery, wouldn't that feel a whole lot like Rayleigh should've just told them about One Piece in the cafe on Sabaody? Isn't the point that they're supposed to undertake the adventure on their own rather than rely on Roger's former crew mates to just pass all the valuable information along to them? Hasn't the story kind of looked down on that in the past - going all the way back to Krieg attempting to take Zeff's log book from his year long voyage in the Grand Line? It would also kind of clash with the pacing of everything up through Wano.
I get that big events can happen quickly… but how quickly? Sure, Elbaf doesn't even need to be an arc. It could just be a place they stop for 20 chapters like Zou. But for that to be the case, they'd just need to be handed the path to Raftel, as indicated in the above post. Like, let's figure the minimum: 30 to 40 chapters remaining in Wano (really low estimate), 20 for Elbaf. It leaves only 120 or so chapters for Raftel and the Final War.... which just seems unsatisfying. Sure, all the other stuff can just be dumped in big flashbacks and exposition scenes, which sounds a lot like the big final battle against Tobi(Obito) -> Madara -> Kaguya -> Sasuke in Naruto... how many flashbacks were there in that single battle? Obito & Madara, the first Hokage, Kaguya's children / sage of six paths, and Orochimaru's resurrection? All while the entire Naruto world fought four major villains who tagged out. Point is, that battle felt like four distinct story arcs crammed into one.... because it was. Kishimoto got tired of writing (understandable) and pushed four stories into a single battle.
I have no doubt that major things will be revealed in the final war in One Piece, but it would just feel like it runs counter to the themes and structure of One Piece for them all to be dumped in some massive 100 chapter long battle at Raftel where everyone in the series shows up. That's just like the ending of Naruto... the series everyone here seems to hate. Also, the pacing would make Game of Thrones season 8 seem good by comparison.
I think it's rather unlikely.
I don't think there will be dedicated arcs for stuff like "the underworld" or "escaped Level 6 inmates" or "What's Crocodile up to now?", but I do think there's setup for more than 2 more arcs remaining.
Wouldn't it be against Oda's nature if the path through the New World was so predetermined and predictable for the Straw Hats? They stumbled upon Punk Hazard, were led by Law to Dressrosa and then Zou. They went to WCI to rescue Sanji en route to Wano. Basically everything from Fishman Island onward has been a set course to Whole Cake Island / Wano. If we only leave Elbaf and Raftel.... the Straw Hat's entire journey in the New World is basically determined for them. Why even have a log pose (Nami asked Inuarushi this very question and he assured her that she would still need it in the future)?
I know it probably will not be popular opinion, but I feel like One Piece has about 15 years left +/- a couple. I really don't take the 'five year' estimate seriously at all. It sounds a lot like "I'd like to end One Piece in five years. Of course, I keep thinking of all this other cool stuff that I want to draw, so...".
My impression is that we've essentially got two big stories left, rather than two arcs. We spent the pat 400 chapters on Kaido / Big Mom. Next saga deals with Shanks / Blackbeard. Then the final war. Sure, the two could be one in the same... but that feels wrong. It's essentially the same as Naruto, where the big war is something that just happens to the Straw Hats. It isn't something they play a role in starting and doesn't really fit with the setup from Marineford. Whitebeard said the discovery of One Piece would start the great war. In this scenario, the war just sort of starts, the Straw Hats continue their adventure in the midst of the war, and then discover One Piece.
So I feel like it might go something like:
Vegapunk Arc -> Elbaf -> Final Island (I call it Log's End) -> Fullalead / Beehive Island / whatever -> Raftel -> War
All of those aren't huge 100 chapter arcs. The Final Island and Raftel would probably be short, Zou sized.
Morgans said "One of the worst generation" would soon rise to claim the title of Pirate King. I feel like for that to be the case, all of them at least need to be seen as 'contenders' to some degree. At this point, we've gotten all of the Worst Generation involved in a major arc aside from Bonney and Urogue. There's a connection between Bonney, Kuma, and therefore Vegapunk. Urogue has a connection to Eneru, which means, possibly Elbaf. I think the final arc before Raftel will involve a major clash between 'The Worst Generation' after Kaido, Big Mom, and Shanks are removed from the equation (not necessarily killed), culminating in Luffy vs. Blackbeard for the title and the path to Raftel. Raftel, One Piece, True History, final war which would be more than one part. We've still gotta deal with Sharley's prophecy, Im, the ancient weapons, etc.
I could see maybe 10 years, but not 5.