@Monkey:
I think what I predicted or said was more that Russia just routinely collapses every once in awhile and something crazy happens.
Good crazy happened last time, maybe it's bad crazy this time…
Maybe Russia explodes inward and falls to pieces....
Can get quite nasty with all those nukes and wmd's splintering and ending up in myriad of different leaders and would-be tyrants. Though I think that Russia west of Urals will at least stay intact.
Maybe Russia explodes inward and the people turn against their horrible leaders…
Putin has done throughout job with cleaning all kind of political opposition and there is really NO option for Russians to switch Putin to. Also Putin has elevated himself in the eyes of russians as a great leader and a patriot, Putin can throw his lackeys to the dogs if needed to be, Dmitri Medvedev might be one of the first fall guys.
Maybe it explodes outward and Putin tries to shore up his popularity by bullying some other smaller country…
That is actually very possible scenario if things wont turn better for Russian economy. It is oldest political trick in the book and perhaps the most effective, when facing problems inside own country, start a war/conflict with foreign nation and let nationalistic hysteria sweep over masses and sudden leader is more popular than ever (as long war is going well).
He will most likely target nation what is not in NATO or being protected by such treaties and that country would have to been sanctioning Russia to justify aggression, there are but a handful such countries in Europe… OH SH*T.
Maybe it explodes outward and Putin is overthrown and replaces by Russian fascists who go to war with NATO…
Russian people already faced results of fall of Soviet Union and unrest of 90's, they might as well try to throw some weight around instead let them fall to pieces without any show of strength. If Putin won't give in russians nationalist demands they might elect some radical to do it.
Maybe Russia suffers awfully for a few years, does nothing major, learns no lessons…
The most plausible and realistic outcome, Putin will continue to blame West for Russia's hardships and throw some minions to the fire and wait that oil prices go up again (inevitable) and then Russia can continue act as a dick and bully when other countries will be dependable for Russia's oil and gas.
I think at least I'd like to think the bullshit Russians tell themselves about how western style stuff failed them in the 90's..so they NEEDED sweet Putin authority is absolutely discredited.
Russia had the golden opportunity to become a real democratic and liberal country in late 90's its just such a pity that KGB agent Putin became President just when Russia's economy started to pick itself up, I really don't think Putin has that much even in credit for Russia's economic boon in 2000's, he was just a lucky guy to hoard all credit from it. Also Russian people have not enjoyed true democracy never in its history.