@ultimateclima:
I haven't really seen you post around lately. And the only big theory you've had I can think of as of late was the Jinbe joining theory, which most agreed with after awhile.
Oh I post some here and there and I try to pick things people will pick apart, like reincarnation and Mariejoa speculation. It's true that I don't post as much these days, but I also don't get bites on them like I used to lol. Anyway, this is not something I'm aiming to discuss.
I'd be happy to debate your theories in depth…if it was something I really disagreed with. I don't think this is impossible...The main problem I have with this, aside from the speculative evidence, is that the Kingdoms kept the pills and ancient water. Hard to think of a reason why they would keep it if it was just a Trojan horse from the WG instead of part of their ancient heritage.
It has some merit. Just hard to think that the ancient water is such an important part of the plot given how little they spent on it. But it's not like Oda hasn't done foreshadowing without emphasis before.
Other comment is even if the water does become important, I still feel the sacrifice of the Kicking Claw Force was badly written. Just wanted to say that.
Well, you can come up with any reason you want for their initial creation. The result is still the same. It was a very dangerous drug that they chose to lock up rather than destroy. That's a fact that looms over any method of creation I can think of, and thus remains fairly independent of it. "These things are very dangerous, so we will lock them away forever" is just how Oda likes to conclude a lot of things.
And yeah I honestly don't really care much about the water part. That's simply what kick started my train of thought.
@Pantheras:
How long they took the pills isn't necessarily the main problem, but how often and how much. For a little while, NFP may have been testing them out on other individuals(humans, then maybe fishmen), trying to discover what is a good limit or a bad one. When we first saw Hodi taking four at a time, Daruma noted the danger of taking that many, though he seemingly didn't know the actual side effects. From his surprise at Hodi taking that many, we can assume that they have been fairly careful in their consumption of the pills. Also, they have had the luxury of time. When the New Fishman Pirates were actually pressed to use the pills to a significant degree in their battle against the Strawhats, soon after is when the negative side effects immediately occurred, and, as you noted, at a similar time.
If those countries were engaged in warfare to the point that they were desperate enough to turn to these pills, then that means they were being severely pressed upon by their foes. Some of those countries (and many of those soldiers) may have been smart enough to just use them sparingly, but there can be no doubt that there are rulers and soldiers who will inevitably make bad decisions, which would include abusing those pills, especially if they were in a desperate situation. If they didn't think that there were not any side effects, what would have stop them from abusing them from battle to battle, over a period of weeks and months. I also find it hard to believe that they wouldn't have at the very least tested the pills to some degree just to see if there was a limit. It's not as if those drugs would have automatically come with an instruction manual, so there should be some natural curiosity just to see when negative side effects would come into play. After all, they would obviously want to know the full potential of such an advantage over their enemies.
And, regardless of how beneficial a drug is, there will obviously be negative consequences if it is abused. Of course, someone in one of those countries would have expressed some concern about this, maybe even conducting their own experiments if they aren't being heard by their superiors. I think the negative side effects would have been easily found. If Oda wanted us to believe that one country could have destroyed itself through these means, I would be willing to accept it, but not several countries. That just seems far too big of a reach.
We have no idea how often and how much the NFP were taking the drugs, but I think it's fair to say that they were in fact taking them. We don't know how often other armies would use them either, but I doubt they'd ever use them outside of battle, so the reality of it all could take several battles. Look at the 70,000 NFP fodder guys. They were all taking these pills, but none of them seem any worse for wear at this point.
The NFP presented the drugs as something that will provide strength at the cost of shaving off the person's life, so they had a general idea of what they were getting themselves into. They just didn't care that much. Should there have been some opposition to the drugs within the AC back during the void century? Certainly. This type of plot is actually fairly common, where a king feeds his army steroids that he's aware will eventually kill them because it makes them more effective in battle now, and chooses to ignore those in opposition. Sort of a "greed takes over" kind of thing.
I'm not going to sit here and get into some deep fanfiction about how this all could have gone down 900 years ago. Even if I refine it and make a good story out of it, which would take me a while, it would doubtlessly be horribly wrong. But it's relatively common for people to not truly realize the danger of something until the reality of it sets in, even if they were aware of the possibility.
Lastly, it's well within reason that communication 900 years ago wasn't that good. Fishman Island, at the very least, probably didn't communicate with the surface very often. Even if the drug was well known already above, it would be entirely feasible that such news hadn't reached them yet. In the current time, they get news from pirates passing through and newspapers that they're likely the ones to bring. But that's a situation which is now only 24 years old. In our world, back during the age of pirates, long distance communication was only done through a letter delivered by a courier. If Oda used that for a model, it would stand to reason that everyone would be extremely "in the dark" regarding current events by our standards (especially considering the danger of the Grand Line/New World oceans to couriers). Of course, if they were utilizing den den mushi's back then, it's a moot point. Even still, some nations are simply more independent than others.