First time in a long time that I've posted in a "Next Straw Hat Crewmates" thread... or any thread here... and I've been (lazily) pushing off writing this for a long time. This was originally going to be about Yamato leaving Wano as regular Straw Hat. (But eventually, Chapter 1057 happened.)
I'm not 100% certain how Oda will handle the crew, but for now, I feel like if there's any additional regular Straw, it's gonna be Vivi. If not her, than potentially no one. If you don't want to read everything below, then if you'd like, you can skip to the line that starts with "Vivi."
(EDIT: I had more here that I was putting in spoiler tags, and it was about various characters I, or others, were thinking of joining as a regular Straw Hat, but I had trouble getting it to post properly, so for now I'll just move on.)
My expectations for a new crew member were a lot more lenient years and years ago compared to now. They changed partially due to reading posts from threads like this one, so not all of my opinions I came up with on my own.
Monet was an infamous candidate around a decade ago, but back then, I was looking to see if she would join. For one thing, I was wondering if her swirly glasses were going to be a hint of a more goofy side to her. Not only was her drugging children a red flag, but also... Luffy's interactions with her in Chapter 681 and Chapter 683 weren't anything special- she was his enemy and that was basically it.
Rebecca stuck out to me among the various characters who interacted with Luffy in Chapter 704, but eventually I became doubtful about her joining.
Sabo had history with Luffy, so before he showed up in Dressrosa, I thought he might be the final Straw Hat... but he's pretty fine with his role in the revolutionary army.
Raizo was someone I was wondering about for a short while. I know he was hinted at by Kin'emon back in Chapter 700, but during Zou there was this buildup and mystery regarding Raizo's identity and location. I also felt he had a flashy debut in Chapter 817. I gave up shortly after that though.
Carrot pretty much always felt like a tag-along character to me, but not a Straw Hat. IMO, her "peak" in terms of hype to me was Chapter 888 with the debut of her Sulong transformation. However present people believe Carrot was in the story, I feel like it hasn't been enough. For example, I think she should've been the mink who Oda teased in Chapter 795 (which was partially a Zou teaser chapter). I also think Oda could've done better with Carrot during Wano.
Yamato was definitely the character who made me think, "Well, surely this is the final Straw Hat", mainly due to the combination of Yamato's desire to sail with Luffy and the Yamato hype being given. I figured that a new Straw Hat could have special treatment to distinguish that character from side characters, especially if they've appeared so late into the story.
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Yamato got a YouTube video for the Japanese voice actor reveal for the anime series.
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They got to be on the cover of Volume 100. Only a small percentage of manga reach Volume 100, so I'd like to believe every character on that cover is really important to the story. I think Yamato spot could've potentially belonged to Shanks, Sabo, or Momo.
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Yamato also got a figure for the Volume 100 Ichibankuji celebrations. As seen here, prizes A through J are figures of Straw Hats Luffy through Jinbe in the poses from the iconic Straw Hat Pirates scene in Volume 98, Chapter 989 / Episode 1000. The towels for prize M also have the various Straw Hats in those same poses. Yamato also has a towel. Also, the final prize is that Yamato figure. Interestingly enough, if I'm interpreting this correctly, it's called the "Last One Prize (ラストワン賞)"? Did Yamato win a fan voter poll or something? Putting Yamato with Straw Hat merchandise based on the iconic Chapter 989 scene seems really symbolic to me.
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Yamato also got an audio message on Twitter for birthday celebrations.
Considering late 2021 to mid 2022 in particular, unless I missed something (and maybe I did), I'm unaware of any other characters getting tweet like this in 2021/2022 besides the Straw Hats. I was going to provide links for Zoro (then Yamato), Chopper, Jinbe, Robin, Franky, Usopp, Brook, Luffy, and Nami, but I had issues, so please let me know if you want to see those.
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In the manga itself, Yamato has been one of the few non Straw Hat characters who knows the end of Luffy's dream.
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I thought that scene with Yamato being familiar with Franky was a sign of Yamato already having background knowledge on the Straw Hats, making it somewhat "easier" to become a member.
But yeah, ultimately, Yamato stayed in Wano. Is Yamato a future regular Straw Hat? An honorary one? Neither? Not sure, but I feel like if Yamato was to join, it should've happened at the end of Wano.
Vivi is, at this point, the character who I think has the highest chance of becoming a regular Straw Hat, but I'm not 100% sure about her either. For someone who's not a regular Straw Hat, I feel like she's gotten a lot of attention inside and outside of the manga, although it could simply be because of the honorary Straw Hat status she's already gotten. She'd have to be put into a situation where she can't properly rule Alabasta without accomplishing something, and that something would involve going to Laugh Tale. We'll have to see...
Maybe no one else will become a regular Straw Hat though? That Straw Hat Pirates moment in Volume 98, Chapter 989 is pretty iconic. There's also that scene in Chapter 1060 where Luffy reveals the end of his dream to the crew.
I also find it interesting how the Vivre Card Visual Dictionary gives numbers to various One Piece characters (shown here, if you scroll down)- Straw Hats Luffy through Jinbe have numbers 0001 through 0010. The Going Merry and Thousand Sunny have 0011 and 0012, and Vivi has 0013. Numbers 0014 and above go to the other characters, based on when they appear in the manga.
Again, any special treatment that Vivi gets might be because she's an honorary Straw Hat. Still... I think she has the highest chance of joining compared to other already debuted characters. It's hard for me to imagine a brand new character becoming a regular Straw Hat... except maybe someone like the "burn scar" character. That character's not guaranteed to be new though. Oda's already started referencing the character at the end of Wano, but... eh...
So yeah, those are (some of) my thoughts.