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Yeah, it always astounds me how people can talk in absolutes regarding the future of a series no one knows about.
Everything so far in Wano is going against Carrot. Taking it as a hint she is not going to join is the most logical conclusion at the moment, but seeing it as a definite fact, pretend to have some secret deep knowledge and go "this is going/not going to happen" makes one sound foolish.
Particularly in a case like this that could change abruptly and unnexpectedly. I mean, Carrot was like just Wanda's shadow in Zou and then, surprise, guess who is on the Sunny? Not Wanda! And just like that Carrot was promoted to member of the main cast for a whole 80-chapter arc.
Rival Mars made a very good point with Momonosuke, a character who we know will be one of the center names of this arc and so far is background character at best. So we know there will be plenty of time and occasion to develop and focus on whoever Oda wants before Wano ends.
I would argue Carrot is a different case because, if she was really going to join, Oda should be actively trying to sell her at every opportunity just like he was with Jinbe in WCI. But, who knows? Things could change in a snap. Imagine she spotting Chopper's group on their way out of Kuri and deciding to follow them… one page and she would be deeply involved in the plot again.
My guess is Carrot being put on the backburner this arc is specifically due to Nekomamushi not being on the island. Pedro's death pertains to that side of their kingdom, not Inuarashi's. Oda has nearly 100 characters to focus on this arc, its going to be impossible to give characters all the screentime they need at this moment, but I'm sure the minks will eventually be given screentime once Nekomamushi comes back.
Its similar to Jinbe, he's out of focus until he's not and returns this arc. She had a pretty decent focus in WCI, did a lot of notable things, and was personally affected by Pedro's death (if he's actually dead, which I think so). I think even giving her these moments were especially important to her character.
Like, why go through all of the trouble to have Pedro reminisce about him joining Roger's ship, then tell Carrot that Luffy and crew are the people to follow just before he dies? Its written in a pretty significant way, and I do think it possibly paints towards something.
I do think Wano is going to cap the crew member growth and Oda will make up for having no crew joins in 400 chapters. Jinbe will officially join, Carrot will possibly join, and its possible a Wano character may join themselves. Hell, maybe even Vivi comes back into the fold if tragedy befalls her family at the Reverie. The Reverie ends in 2 more days and there's 9 more days until the fight at Onigashima even starts, possibly giving enough time for travel to Wano. Total BS guessing here though lol