Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions

Monkey King

Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

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This is spreading faster and getting bigger by the day, the Random News thread is turning into a singular topic a little quick so we might as well make it a real thread for all our needs, news bites, and discussion.

For those of you who don't know there's been a widespread degree suddenly of revolts and protests in Arab speaking countries against their many authoritarian governments mostly lit from economic discontent and hugely young populations.

Valued above all else is the real time living of these events any members who live in any of these nations and want to reach out and tell the world what's going on. Tigerlilly was and is our hero still, the angel of the thread. And anyone else who wants to talk (yes Bar Kuma, you too) can drop their words here for us. We'd love to hear. We're behind you in spirit.

So far Tunisia toppled it's regime. Then Egypt toppled it's regime. Now Libya is soon to topple it's own.

Now let's look at the players!
I'll try to keep this updated.

THE SCENE:

THE PLAYERS:

MOROCCO

Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Leader: King Mohammed VI

Forecast: Anger here is based around corruption and awkward government, not regime change. Maybe the monarchy will finally see a better future in becoming figureheads and letting a parliament deal with ruling. Situation: Reforms and minor protests.

ALGERIA

Type: Authoritarian Presidency
Leader: Abdelaziz Bouteflika

Forecast: Algeria has been buzzing along protest wise during all the major protests so far, never really reaching a fever pitch of any sort, but never fully ebbing. If and when Libya goes it might be the final straw to make things blow up for real. Situation: Minor unrest, some immolations. Government concessions.

MAURITANIA

Type: Shaky Deeply Flawed Democracy w' Authoritarian tendencies
Leader: Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz

Forecast: This nation is incredibly unstable, more likely a military coup then a people power attempt at healthy government. Situation: Minor unrest and self immolations.

TUNISIA

Type: Interim Government
Leader: ~~Zine El Abidine Ben Ali~~

Forecast: Looks like a storm just passed! Liberated!
Situation: Dictator run out of town. Great Success!

LIBYA
Type: Interim Government
Leader: ~~Colonel Gaddafi~~
Forecast: A hard road ahead. But the bastard is dead.
Situation: Civil war over, much much rebuilding to be done. The tyrant is dead, his sons fled or also. EGYPT Type: Interim Military Gov YO WORD??
Leader: ~~Hosni Mubarak~~

Forecast: KIDNAP THAT FOOL
Situation: WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT

NORTH SUDAN Type: Military Dictatorship
Leader: Omar al bashir

Forecast: More likely then you think. Though more likely an internal coup. Some might be angry at Omar for letting the South go free among other things. Pair that with how goddamned poor the country is and who knows. And yes this is an Arab country (mostly), black or not. For a discussion on that go look in that "Strawhats in our world" thread in the General Anime section.
Situation: Self Immolation, Minor Unrest. Bashir has promised not to run for re-election.
SOMALIA Type: Republics, Islamic states, Interim Govs, Warlords, Pirate Captains
Coolest Ex Patriot: K'naan

Forecast: Ironically most of these various warring authorties probably have more satisfied people then places like Egypt. Somaliland for instance. And no…Somali is an ethnic group all it's own, but they're veeery close to the Arabs in some ways.
Situation: A minor protest against the warring factions in Mogadishu…as if it would matter.

JORDAN
Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Leader: King Abdullah II

Forecast: Jordan is much stabler and free then most, but also economically weak in many regards. An otherwise tolerated degree of repression might not be so tolerated if the economy sloped much lower.
Situation: Middling unrest. Cabinet sacked by King. New one chosen. Further reforms. LEBANON
Type: Divisionary Religion Based Democracy
Leader: Michel Suleiman

Forecast: Lebanon is tied up all sorts of shit right now unrelated to any of this. Namely an investigation into a presidential assassination. The usual Hezbollah/Israel nastiness defines this poor nations day to day issues. Their politics are a mess, but I don't think people feel crushed by them in particular.
Situation: Unrelated mess. SYRIA
Type: Baathist Dictatorship
Leader: Bashar al-Assad

Forecast: The second most deserving toppling belongs to Mr. Assad. Syria was the OTHER country to host a Baath party dictatorship like Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. They've been pretty quiet toward all but Israel and Lebanon though and not attracted a ton of Western interest or ire like Saddam. They're pretty nasty though don't be fooled. Assad falling would be excellent news, but he's well backed up by his military and secret police. And they responded to unrest from one Islamist group my performing an assualt so violent on one city they held that the like hasn't been seen since the middle ages. Poor though Syria is….I unfortunately doubt a revolt.
Situation: Serious violent crackdown, burgeoning potential of civil war, secretarian divides as well. IRAQ
Type: Shaky Interim Council
Leader: Interim Council trying to form government still

Forecast: Sometimes people just want to protest against a goddamn mess, and so the people of Iraq are out against corruption and mismanagement.
Situation: Middle protests, some governor stepped down in Basra and shit, Kurds protesting against their regions dudes as well. SAUDI ARABIA
Type: Absolute Monarchy
Leader: King Saud

Forecast: Repressive as hell with basically zero political expression? Shit! But very economically successful? EH….uh. The Saudi Monarchy is well backed by foreign interests and military so I doubt much would happen. But the Arab world don't like these guys much. And damn! Probably the most sexist nation on earth this side of the Taliban's Afghanistan. Women are practically lower then animals here. They have every reason to revolt...
Situation: Minor unrest, reported self immolater. KUWAIT
Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Leader: Emir Sabah

Forecast: EXTREMELY unlikely. Kuwait has a fairly free government for a true monarchy. And it's one of the most socially liberalized of the Arab states. And above all it's DAMNED rich. The average person here is probably richer then most of us North American/Western European/East Asian mucky mucks. Would you revolt?
Situation: Some minor protests with minor aims. BAHRAIN
Type: Constitutional Monarchy
Leader: Emir al-Khalifa

Forecast: Much more likely then I thought apparently. Security forces are being stupid, and apparently a majority of the people are Shiite, whereas the rulers are Sunni. Creating potential tension I didn't forsee.
Situation: Getting really bad. QATAR
Type: Absolute Monarchy
Leader: Emir Hamad

Forecast: Very very unlikely. Also a prosperous ass oil kingdom. Also preparing for a World Cup in the future.
Situation: Nothing. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Type: Plural Monarchy
Leader: Emir al-Nahyan

Forecast: The home of Dubai? Riot? Extremely unlikely. Well…sort of. There are scores of desperately poor people here, but none of them are locals. They're migrant workers from places like India. And they are treated terribly.
I doubt they'd do anything though...they have so little power.
Situation: Nothing. YEMEN
Type: Authoritarian Presidency/Pseudo Democracy
Leader: Ali Abdullah Saleh

Forecast: Saleh is entrenching himself even if he has promised not to run for re-election, he's just not giving in to continued demands. And starting on crazy shit like blaming the US for the protests. Yemen continues to worry me, I want to root for all these revolutions, but Yemen has always teetered on being a failed state and heavy instability could just….you know. Saleh is the one who should help make peace by resigning of course.
Situation: Major unrest. Saleh could leave soon. OMAN
Type: Absolute Monarchy
Leader: Ben Qaboos the Gay Sultan

Forecast: Man things are heating up big time here. I doubt Quaboos will resort to Mubarak tactics though, he's pretty respected by the people enough that he has lots of room to wiggle. I see this being similar to Bahrain in terms of escalation. The ultimate end here might be for Oman to transform into a more true constituitonal monarchy. A respected monarchy doesn't necessarily get French revolutioned, it may simply go (rest of) western/northern european style and become a delightful ceremonial bit of nothing. If Quaboos is smart (and I think he is) he will set this up for after his death. He may already have been, but the protests will possibly hasten this reform. And if he's truly smart he will answer the protests fully and honestly.
Situation: Minor protests for reform spreading now. Sultan has ordered a study into a parliament.
Country Profiles Continued: http://apforums.net/showpost.php?p=2108294&postcount=6

THE FALLEN DOMINO COUNT:
The major major revolutions will be counted as dominos. 1. Tunisia: √
2. Egypt: √
3. Libya: √
4. Yemen: ???
5. Syria: ….

Sakonosolo

Nice thread. Hopefully it'll be used a lot.

ChesCa

I'll just put up what I put up everywhere else: However they got it, NPR reported that Egypt is rolling out the anti-terrorism units into the streets.

Sakonosolo

I'm not sure if this is what you're talking about but
http://www.presstv.com/detail/162337.html

Army has been sent out as well.

Rogues' Gallery

Excellent Thread!

I'll try and keep my eye on these events.

JERK DISEASE

DJIBOUTI Type: Authoritarian Presidency
Leader: Ismail Omar Guelleh

Forecast: Dude has been holding on to power over his limit, and recently did some good ol' fashioned term futzing. US military base in the region, Obama's headache must be huge!
Situation: Thousands of people on the move! For a super tiny country thats big!
Non Arab World Nations

IRAN
Type: uh…..bizarre mix of democracy and religious dictatorship. The religious dictatorship basically hovers over a democracy and say what it can or can't do within Islamic perimeters. So basically it's kind of a bullshit democracy in that it's limited to what unelected people want from it. And apparently even it's votes are rigged! So basically just a theocracy.
Unelected Leader: Ali Khamenei

"Elected" Leader: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Forecast: God. This is the biggest domino, and maybe every other domino's force smashing against it might not make it fall. The government isn't a puppet of foreign interests like Egypt was to the US, or Syria is to Iran. Iran works for Iran and doesn't answer to anybody. They're entrenched in a hugely important position and will fight hard before even conceding ground. Further to the point Iran is propped up by a praetorian guard force known as the Revolutionary Guard, who are fiercely loyal to the regime, and have a great deal of money invested in various parts of the country. I don't see simple protests as bringing such an organization down. But it only…. By the way, if Iran falls, so does Syria. Syria is a dependent baby on Iran's nipple.
Situation: Iran tried huge protests in 2009 if you recall and they tapered off. Too bad. But with what happened in Tunisia and fuckin' Egypt? The people are ready to go again, and this time maybe for keeps.

Sakonosolo

He means sending them in I think.

ChesCa

I edited it after my mistake. They're rolling them out.

JERK DISEASE

Wonderful…
That's just great.

JERK DISEASE

http://www.presstv.com/detail/162335.html

Fucking shut up for once in your life Israel.

Akumu

And here we go.

This is going to get real interesting real fast.

Sakonosolo

I'm sure there's a perfect metaphor to cover this but I can't think of any at the moment.

Edit: Wait, Israel's the kid(s) circling the fight screaming "FIGHT".

JERK DISEASE

I've been pissed about our past support of monster regimes during the Cold War. But now that US funded military is killing and crushing protesters I'm mad right now.

Biden is a moron, and Obama is being a coward.

trappedolphin

I found this picture pretty inspiring.

I read somewhere that protests are supposed to begin at 5AM Eastern Time. That's a little over four hours from now. It's exciting, but terribly frightening at the same time.

JERK DISEASE

Fund a monster to avoid monsters and you make a worse monster then you could imagine.

Example: IRAN

Sakonosolo

There were tweets saying that the tear gas canisters being shot said "Made in US" on them. Fucking disgusting.

JERK DISEASE

I'm honestly thinking of contacting my representatives.

Our media should be taking the government to task on this. Maddow, Stewart, goddamned Beck, I don't care.

ChesCa

Small tidbit: A noble peace prize winner (I didn't catch his name) is calling for the president to resign. He might even be in Egypt right now.
Also, in case I can't listen to it, NPR will be covering Egypt, at the very least in part, on 'All Things Considered' tomorrow, in case they can give us something new.

Sakonosolo

Apparently there's little to no coverage whatsoever.

Ubiq

Of the Nothing crowd, the only one I would think could have its situation quickly go bad is the UAE if only because they're relatively vulnerable to a real estate bubble popping. If that happened, you'd have a bunch of poor immigrants, a bunch of ruined investors, decades of infrastructure investment poured down a drain, and a whole lot of anger. The rest aren't anywhere near as vulnerable though the UAE is one of the few oil countries to really diversify; it's just that they chose to go into a field that's extremely risky right now.

@Jerk:

Fund a monster to avoid monsters and you make a worse monster then you could imagine.

Example: IRAN

Are you implying that American foreign policy is somehow to blame for its horrible, horrible mistakes over the last half century? Do you want the ~~Communists~~terrorists to win?

Also: IRAQ, CHILE, hell, pick a country that wasn't Communist and that had a dictator.

JERK DISEASE

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/cairodowntown

Akumu

@Sakonosolo:

There were tweets saying that the tear gas canisters being shot said "Made in US" on them. Fucking disgusting.

Well, seeing as they bought them from us, it's no surprise.
We sell they buy. Up until now, they weren't being used on the people, so we had no reason to jeopardize the contract. It's business.

You wouldn't be calling it "fucking disgusting" if they weren't using them on the people, so let's not jump to such things just yet.

trappedolphin

@Sakonosolo:

There were tweets saying that the tear gas canisters being shot said "Made in US" on them. Fucking disgusting.

yeah, this picture has been going around too:

[hide]

You can't see it like this, but basically the bottom of the can says "Made in USA".[/hide]

@JERK:

I'm honestly thinking of contacting my representatives.

Our media should be taking the government to task on this. Maddow, Stewart, goddamned Beck, I don't care.

People on Twitter were talking about this, too. Philip J. Crowley also posted the following:

We are concerned that communication services, including the Internet, social media and even this #tweet, are being blocked in #Egypt.

We are closely monitoring the situation in #Egypt. We continue to urge authorities to show restraint and allow peaceful protests to occur.

Rogues' Gallery

@Sakonosolo:

Apparently there's little to no coverage whatsoever.

I can imagine why. shudders

@JERK:

I'm honestly thinking of contacting my representatives.

Our media should be taking the government to task on this. Maddow, Stewart, goddamned Beck, I don't care.

Do it. Someone needs to bring light to this. My parents (and probably most Americans) had no idea whatsoever that something of this magnitude is going down and believe that it doesn't affect them because Egypt is "so far away".

Anyway, I show my support for the people of Egypt.

Zigee

i was actually going to make a thread on this topic, but i was thinking jerk disease could probably do it better. well informative. i wish for the best in egypt

Hiroy

@trappedolphin:

I found this picture pretty inspiring.

http://www.boingboing.net/2011/01/25/230680480.jpg

I read somewhere that protests are supposed to begin at 5AM Eastern Time. That's a little over four hours from now. It's exciting, but terribly frightening at the same time.

Yeah. I can think of several possible conclusions, and most involve bloodshed. The best result I can think of is Mubarak giving in.

Zigee

@JERK:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/cairodowntown

is this stream live? i think its almost 8am in egypt and it seems kinda dark.

leo.mysterio

Thanks man, this topic made things easier to understand a thing that I really wanted to know more about.

Shandian

@JERK:

http://www.presstv.com/detail/162335.html

Fucking shut up for once in your life Israel.

Israel dont really want to make Nasser or similar to make his return… I dont think they like Mubarak that much anyway but atleast he is an co-operative. Israel is living in a fucked up situation being surrounded by hostile cultures with each of surrounding nations outnumbering Israel by population by huge margin even with having most strongest military in area, but since Egypt was their main enemy and leader of hostile coalition against Israel back in 60's-70's they dont want history to repeat itself a bit.

I wish that people of Egypt would be able to kick that despot Mubarak out of office but I dont think its very likely, Mubarak and his goverment is really fond of being in power and they will not give up on power in their lifetime, as long they are backed down by police and military any hope of revolution will be dealt with extreme measures.

Mubarak will be backed up by other Arab leaders in this matter and he is free to use extreme force to crush any hopes of rebellion, of course there will be internation outcry for too harsh methods but everyone knows that it will only take couple of years before its forgotten by everyone.

Egypt lives by tourism though so they might have to cover their hands to silk before they grab the hammer to crush rebellion lest they scary tourists off (who are only intrested to lay in beaches and observing some pyramids).

Unfortunately some of the rebels are anything but liberal and if they somehow manage to overthrow Mubarak and his totalitarian rule Egypt might face new age of repression and a brutal massacre targeting of kopti christian population in nation who has been living in relative peace with rest of the population up to date.

Hiroy

@Zigee:

is this stream live? i think its almost 8am in egypt and it seems kinda dark.

Nah. It's not. If it were, we should be able to skip.

Sakonosolo

It says it's offline for me.

Sesshy

@JERK:

http://www.presstv.com/detail/162335.html

Fucking shut up for once in your life Israel.

The unnamed minister wasn't urging Egypt to use force from what I read in the article, it just has him stating that he doesn't think the people will be able to overthrow the government.

Akumu

Okay, I have to go to bed now. I've got to be up for a long day of classes in six hours.
I really hope I don't wake up to find out that there's been a massacre..

Ubiq

@Hiroy:

Yeah. I can think of several possible conclusions, and most involve bloodshed. The best result I can think of is Mubarak giving in.

If he were going to do that without a fight, he almost certainly would have already done so if only to leave on his own terms. At this point, a military coup is probably the least bloody way of resolving this.

@Shandian:

Israel is living in a fucked up situation being surrounded by hostile cultures with each of surrounding nations outnumbering Israel by population by huge margin

Maybe they shouldn't piss off their neighbors by doing things like promising not to build settlements and then going ahead and doing it anyway. Even then, it's not like any of their neighbors is going to risk Israel glassing their capital just for the sake of Palestinians. Talk of Israel being erased from the map is nonsense.

JERK DISEASE

@Akumu:

Well, seeing as they bought them from us, it's no surprise.
We sell they buy. Up until now, they weren't being used on the people, so we had no reason to jeopardize the contract. It's business.

You wouldn't be calling it "fucking disgusting" if they weren't using them on the people, so let's not jump to such things just yet.

When paired with the comments from Biden and the rest of the press?
It's fucking disgusting.

Insider2000

Reading the thread title, it smelt a bit jerkish. My sense of smell is almost as good as my gaydar.

But seriously, this is crazy interesting. I never imagined Egypt could be in such upheaval, be it possibly for the better. Ignorance sucks.

@Zigee:

is this stream live? i think its almost 8am in egypt and it seems kinda dark.

I don't think it's live anymore. I think this is a recording now.

Zigee

its pretty much going to be a given that there is going to be massive losses :(

Rogues' Gallery

Watching the nightly news right now. Absolutely nothing reported on these events so far.

Akumu

@JERK:

When paired with the comments from Biden and the rest of the press?
It's fucking disgusting.

The press is the press. They are completely independent from the government. And Biden is Biden. He in no way repesents the beliefs of the White House.

And why I don't like it any more than you do, I also don't think we should be blaming our government in anyway. If Egypt didn't get them from us, they'd get them from somewhere, we were just the best deal.
Would it somehow make it better if they read Made in Russia, England, China, etc. on them?

Personally, I don't give a fuck who made them, I care about how they're being used. That's what's fucking disgusting, not that they read "made in the U.S.A"

JERK DISEASE

@Akumu:

The press is the press. They are completely independent from the government. And Biden is Biden. He in no way repesents the beliefs of the White House.

I should have clarified. I meant press secretary.

And why I don't like it any more than you do, I also don't think we should be blaming our government in anyway. If Egypt didn't get them from us, they'd get them from somewhere, we were just the best deal.

I'm willing to follow you on "we funded them for use not on people" but don't use this non-logic nihilist excuse bullshit on me.

Personally, I don't give a fuck who made them, I care about how they're being used. That's what's fucking disgusting, not that they read "made in the U.S.A"

Do you not fucking get the entire concept that we are highly supportive of a repressive regime in the first place?
Are you so goddamn dense that you don't understand that people didn't really care about "hey this one object was made in the US" so much as what that symbolizes in large?

This is one of the surrogate babies we let suck on our teat for our aims in the region, their military is a giant bubble because we fund them. You know what helped in Tunisia? That the government wasn't being pumped full of boom boom money.

If you believe you live in an electoral democracy, and you fucking do and should be more grateful for it now then most times, you should feel slightly gross and wanting to effect change in your countries policies.

I'm sick of this reactionary knee jerk reaction of when any amount of negative spotlight gets thrown back on the US for some people who would say anything about any other country turning immeditaly to garbage like "IT WOULD BE SOMONE ELSE LOL".

You don't get to care about what X is used for when where X came from is just as important. Military support from other nations is a CENTRAL part of international understanding.
Refusing to pay attention to one to care about the other is a lie.

And why do you think we have this photo. Huh? Why?
Why are Egyptians holding up "MADE IN USA" to the camera? Why do you think they're doing that? What do you think our hypocritical position toward Egypt is doing right now? And how dense can you be to think something like that doesn't matter? Do you know anything about the Iranian revolution? How about the Khmer Rouge? What about the Taliban?

trappedolphin

Tens of thousands of tweets coming up every ten seconds now.

FB page claimed to have up-to-date news, photos and videos: http://www.facebook.com/elshaheeed.co.uk

Some of you might find this helpful, if you're talking about what we can do: http://pieceofmind.publicrealm.net/emergency-response-plan/

There is now a hashtag for BidenSaysItsOK.

JERK DISEASE

MSNBC is prominently featuring news on their site about it.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

As a matter of fact so is Fox.
http://www.foxnews.com/
Maybe Repubs out of pure spite will attack Obama on this mostly because they don't have to worry about blame for any mess. Probably one of the rare times phony partisan rage can cause some good if it gets Obama doing stuff he should.

Meanwhile CNN thinks the Kardashian sisters among other things are more important. No Egypt in site among headlines, just some random article about Arab protestors in general in the itty bitty sidebar.
http://www.cnn.com/

That might be it for CNN being my "leave on the Tv and half pay attention" news.

Pochipochi

@JERK:

Meanwhile CNN thinks the Kardashian sisters among other things are more important. No Egypt in site among headlines, just some random article about Arab protestors in general in the itty bitty sidebar.
http://www.cnn.com/

Ctrl + F Egypt

Get sent to bottom of the page

JERK DISEASE

I heard something about Coptic Christians planning to protect all the Muslim protestors while they pray today.

Pochipochi

@JERK:

I heard something about Coptic Christians planning to protect all the Muslim protestors while they pray today.

Awwww

shit just

gotta grin.

Mr M

@JERK:

I heard something about Coptic Christians planning to protect all the Muslim protestors while they pray today.

also heard that

so fucking awesome

IamGod

Looks like Egypt has shut off the countries internet among other things:

http://gizmodo.com/5745521/skeptical-that-egypts-internet-is-dead-check-it-out-for-yourself

That will stop this social network induced revolution right in its tracks! :getlost:

JERK DISEASE

Twitter still works if you use phones or something.

trappedolphin

@JERK:

I heard something about Coptic Christians planning to protect all the Muslim protestors while they pray today.

Yup, they are. It's pretty cool to see people talking about this kind of solidarity.

Twitter (richardenglnbc): Demonstrations to start at at least 7 mosques in cairo, 3 churches. Then march to tahrir

A retweet from someone living in Egypt: Pray for #Egypt. Very worried as it seems that government is planning a war crime tomorrow against people. We are all ready to die #Jan25

I can't imagine how it must feel to be living there now.

Also, Noor DSL has been confirmed to be working - the government can't take it down because it's connected to the stock market and banks.

Zigee

@JERK:

Twitter still works if you use phones or something.

didn't they cut off mobiles too?