It's the economy. It's been rough in the developed leading economies, imagine how much more rough it is in places like Egypt. And it destroys the credibility of authoritarian governments who often get accepted once people slide into a livable status quo.
Remember how Bartholemew Kuma was getting all agitated and defended Gaddafi for bringing peace and stability to Libya? How nothing else seemed to matter to him because of that?
Well start taking away that peace and stability and see how long Gaddafi continues being beloved by his people.
Not that guys like Mubarak were exactly darlings of their countries.
But it's the difference between begrudged everyday living and feeling like you aren't living anymore. Nihilism sets in.
Look at what started Tunisia's riots. A college grad with no job prospects. Hell a college grad who from what I've read is probably more qualified for real nice jobs then most of us (certainly more then me), who was forced to sell fruits on the street to make ends meet.
God, I mean I have a shit degree I'm not even technically done with that even if I intended to go with it and got it's job I would be poorer then poor. I'm having hell finding even basic day jobs with how hard up times are. I've been laid off already during all this even. But since I live in the US there's plenty of things that can keep me going until times and my own circumstances improve, so I can land a job and a life.
In Tunisia, you get forced to sell fruit when a goddamn computer sciences degree gets you nothing? Because the jobs are gained through bullshit and connections and bribes? And you get attacked by cops for even selling fruit?
You lose all will to live, and you douse yourself in gas and light yourself on fire in front of a government building because what the fuck else can you do.
And then suddenly as that mindset grips a whole nation. Whose really that afraid of death by machine gun, or capture and torture, or baton, or tank, or whatever.
And suddenly the government has a problem. A very very big problem.
Some of these dictatorships, they're gonna hold. And that's because they have things like Praetorian Guard units. Iran has this, Syria has this. I'm not sure about Egypt. And those types are like the Nazi SS. Loyal to the core and highly skilled. And they can crush protestors and even regular army coups.
Tunisia didn't have one of these thank god.
And it's not just the Arab and Greater Middle East that we should have our eyes on.
Burma has been miserable for a long time and it's people clearly hate their government. Burma's started a slow as molasses but still existent liberalization process possibly. But who knows. Uprisings have been horrifically cut down here many times. It depends on the army I think. If they start to get paid shit….
Central Asia is filled with the same sort of obviously false democracies that places like Egypt and Tunisia are or were. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. All of them have middling economies. Some are on their way up and aren't so bad (Kazakh) others are realllly bad (Tajik). Kyrgyzstan has chased TWO different presidents out in the past decade for evolving into dictators. It's depressing that the revolutions don't seem to work, but at least they don't tolerate shit. I personally hope Uzbekistan gets toppled most. That president is a monster in a three piece suit.
Belarus, the last dictatorship in Europe. The last piece of Cold War in Europe (aside from Transnnistria). Alexander Lukashenko is just like Ben Ali or Mubarak. Same sort of scum. There were riots earlier after yet another bullshit election in 2010. I hope Lukashenko gets his ass tossed out or shot. He was confidently boasting that Belarus would have no color revolution like Ukraine, and the fucker was right about the election riots. But now I hope he peed his pants after seeing what happened in Tunisia. And unlike Tunisia, which is an oasis among authoritarian nations, Belarus is increasingly an ugly little archaic zit on Europe's face with the other Soviet Bloc countries slowly gaining power and economy and some finally catching up with West Europe. After the shaky post-communist years. Even Russia hates him now. If Putin will bother poisoning that one Ukrainian politician, I wish he would just shoot Lukashenko's stupid Thompson and Tompson mustached balloon head off.