An Analysis of the ACTUAL Dawn Prophecy
First of all let’s clear up who Oden’s Wife is addressing. She’s not talking to Orochi. What we got from this chapter was that Orochi thought she was talking to him. But that’s ridiculous, what purpose would a woman who’s burning to death have to spit wild poetry to the person killing her like as if it would change anything. No, Oden’s wife is talking to Momonosuke, who we know was present even up to her death, so he definitely heard her saying this. And unlike the previous interpretation of her cursing a person in her last breath, she’s giving her son Motivation to go on, knowing he’s going to be cast into a situation he is definitely not prepared for, what with him going to become an orphan soon who travels 20 years into the future and all.
Now I’ll explain the relevance of the Shogun’s interpretation and the ACTUAL interpretation which applies to Momonosuke.
“You are like the moon who knows not the Dawn”- Oden’s Wife
Let’s begin with the person being addressed to. I’m not an expert on this part so I’ll give you the facts as is, the Kanji for the term “Kozuki” is in fact a variation of the translation for “Moonlight”. So between Orochi and Momonosuke, there’s only one person associated directly with the moon by design. You can even go into the Orochi myths but the best you’ll get from there is Susano’o, the brother of the Moon god, killed Yamata no Orochi.
Now that we agree she’s addressing Momonosuke, what we know from chapter 919 is that children growing up in circumstances where they don’t know about the outside world is a problem. The Dawn does in fact have to do with Opening Wano’s borders but it’s more to do with knowing the good outside of Wano in order to decide to open the borders. Mama Momo is telling Momonosuke that he’s also like these children, a child that doesn’t know about the splendors of not being in this Isolationist country. Hence Momonosuke’s general uptightness during his introduction at Punk Hazard.
And there’s a reason this part about “the Dawn” is actually the closest thing to being correct and we shall get to that.
”When 9 Shadows are cast woven together through 20 years of moonlit nights”- Oden’s Wife
The word “woven” is an interesting choice of words is this part. There’s only two obvious usages in this story, “woven fates” and “woven hats”. Here the word is used cleverly in both ways. The 9 Shadows are the 9 Strawhats. It’s not even a stretch considering how much symbolism “Woven hats” has in this story. There’s a “woven hat” in the Logo of the series. The main characters are identified by a “woven hat”. The big secrets of the world in Mariejois involve a giant “woven hat”. The overarching theme of “Inherited will” is symbolized by the inheritance of a “woven hat”. The foreshadowing of this arc involved Ace making a “woven hat”. Luffy arrives and befriends a maker of “woven hats” in a town named after “woven hats”. The list goes on. No it doesn’t but you get the point. “Woven fates” implies that these characters must be closely tied together as if by fate itself and we know among the many traits characters in the story have pointed out about Luffy and his crew, a prevelant one is that it’s like it was pure fate the things they accomplish.
“Only then shall you know the radiance of Dawn”-Oden’s Wife
Now this is where it comes together. Only when Momonosuke’s been with the Strawhats will he know the benefits of the outside world. And that’s the interesting part. We’ve seen this happen gradually as the story went on while Momonosuke was on Luffy’s ship. So the prophecy is essentially complete. Or is it? It is curious how Kin’emon and company constantly keep secrets from Luffy. This is in a way showing the effects of their isolationist policies they also lived through. Wano’s big deal is that it’s secretive and unfortunately that aspect hasn’t been shaken off entirely even in Momonosuke. This is the actual prophecy coming to fruition. When Kin’emon and company have fully seen the good in the outside world(i.e Luffy and company) and also see the bad in their isolationism(i.e keeping secrets all the time and not trusting people even though they’ve saved your life over and over again).
Remember that the opening the borders of Wano was Oden’s idea. Only Oden went on Roger’s ship and even on returning he doesn’t seem to have divulged what his exact reasoning was when deciding this. So until the Strawhats came into the picture, Kin’emon and Momonosuke didn’t actually have a reason for doing this outside of it was their master’s wish. That’s why this Prophecy is to Momonosuke and is just about finding the good in the outside world and when him and his retainers finally fully trust the Strawhats, then the prophecy will be completed. And I think that’s just around the corner since there can’t be any bigger secret than this on the Horizon for sure.
I know this seems pretty anti-climactic but that’s where the importance of Orochi’s interpretation comes in. He is depicted as a person who is fully superstitious, and not even pretending to be. The Beast pirates have in fact occupied Wano but but from what we can tell, the Beast pirates are the ones that got intergrated into Wano and not the other way around. This isn’t the Wano Oden envisioned. He wanted something like full cultural integration maybe but apparently, Wano looks like what you’d typically expect of Olden Japan even after 20 years of occupation.
Therefore Orochi envisions this as the next best thing. An outside force that manages to still maintain the isolationist principles for the most part and doesn’t introduce their own foreign influences enough to change things like the social standings of citizens and class structure or affect the economy or culture or especially their secrecy(since Sakazuki and company still don’t know much about the country). As long as the Wano of today looks like the Wano of yesterday to the greatest degree possible, Orochi sees this as maintaining Wano’s isolationism the best he can.
Essentially Orochi is actually superstitious of the outside world genuinely from what we can tell and the reason his interpretation is important is, it will be his downfall of own making. It will be a domino effect and the best part is, we can actually see where his reasoning could come from. The Samurai did travel 20 years, they do have a grudge against him, Oden did have “9 Scabbard” warriors(or retainers), and his goal was to open to the borders. But that’s how superstition works. You add tangential elements to things for the sake of overblowing things. Like it doesn’t ever mention that he’ll be killed in Oden’s Wife’s prophesy at all. It’s just blatant paranoia.
I can’t speculate on how the dominoes will fall but my own personal theory(this is a theory now, not an Analysis like what I’ve just been doing) is that he’ll lose to Zoro yet he was on equal or even slightly better level. It may not even be an actual fight as opposed to him sending out his top minion or something but he will actually have the advantage in someway but upon seeing Zoro’s 9 sword style, he’ll completely break down. It will be paranoia at its finest because Orochi knows that Oden’s “9 Scabbards” are actually people but his paranoia and superstition will win out again. The result being he’ll take the name “9 Scabbards” literally and upon seeing a man who singlehandedly wields 9 swords, the guy will unravel and that will be the beginning his end.
Anyway that’s the analysis of the ACTUAL “Dawn prophecy” and I haven’t gotten into like why it’s 20 years exactly because that’s not explained in the story. And why the shadows are in moonlit nights because moonlit nights are a big deal in One Piece during big events, like Chopper and Robin’s story and even Ussop and Luffy’s fight at Water seven but this is a bit flimsy to use as evidence so I expect they’ll be more to it.
TL;DR The Prophecy is about Momonosuke meeting the Strawhats who will show him the outside world ain’t so bad. It was a dying mother’s last soothing words to her son who she knew was going to be sorrowful and even more distrustful once he jumps 20 years into the future as a freakin Orphan. The prophecy is NOT the last desperate screams of a woman to her killers one of whom is even immortal. Orochi made this whole thing up in his head because that’s how superstitious zealots work and that’s how they’ll eventually fall.
p.s. You have to admit it would pretty damn weird for Momonosuke’s last words from his mom to b her screaming curses to the heavens because he said he was saw her die so once again, he must have been there.
p.p.s I like talking about thematic relevance a lot in my theories or analyses so I can’t not talk about it here. To symbolize how isolationism built on superstition only leads to self destruction of a country, Orochi will have to lose because of this, since we can’t have the country actually being destroyed since saving it is the goal. And to symbolize how acceptance and trust of others beyond your borders is beneficial, Momonosuke has been saved a number of times by just the generosity of the Strawhats, and once the Prophecy from his own Mom is fullfilled, he will fully embrace the Strawhats and get their help to win the country. A perfect contrast.