American Politics: A Brand New Day

pariston_hill

@JulieYBM
This is kind the crux of the neoliberal dilema.
As neoliberalism has been the most successful wealth redistribution program (from workers to multi millionaire and billionaire), parties upholding the neoliberal dogma both can't and wont address the decline in quality of live and staggering wages because to do so would mean turn the flow of money upwards a little bit and in doing show the political class would lose support for their campaign donors (and bribes they receive).

This old David Graeber video talks about the symbiosis of center and far right that neoliberalism birthed

JulieYBM

@pariston_hill said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@JulieYBM
This is kind the crux of the neoliberal dilema.
As neoliberalism has been the most successful wealth redistribution program (from workers to multi millionaire and billionaire), parties upholding the neoliberal dogma both can't and wont address the decline in quality of live and staggering wages because to do so would mean turn the flow of money upwards a little bit and in doing show the political class would lose support for their campaign donors (and bribes they receive).

This old David Graeber video talks about the symbiosis of center and far right that neoliberalism birthed

Yeah, it's why I say that action speak louder than words in politics. If won't fix shit you are not my friend, you are not my ally. If you won't burn down the house to do the right thing then just fuck off lol

Nobodyman

@Time-Control-Magician said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

Don’t know people forgot about the Tea Party and how they habitually tried to repeal the ACA even those that owe their political careers to the movement largely don’t identify with the movement anymore.

MAGA has been in the public conscious for 8 years (and probably will for the next 4 years), so it's had a really good run regardless of what happens from here on out.

At any rate it’ll likely be cannibalized by some new variant of Republican extremism. Especially if they can’t find a candidate able to win the general like Trump did.

Probably. People forget (or never knew) that Reagan originally used it.

andre

@Nobodyman

The tea party started during the Obama era. It's been around for 15 years, but hasn't been relevant in 8.

Nobodyman

@andre Sorry, I was referring to the MAGA slogan.

Yes, true enough that the Tea Party itself is basically defunct, though I might argue that its influence still lingers.

andre

@Nobodyman Gotcha. Don't know how I missed that part.

Time Control Magician

Don’t know if I agree with people like Jay Leno that Trump winning means the election was fair and democracy works.

When you still have people being purged from voting rolls close to an election, people who can’t vote because of blatantly dubious laws, fake bomb threats temporarily stopping people from casting ballots along with egregiously long lines, rich corporations flooding elections with money anonymously, people whose job it is to certify election results openly stating they won’t if their preferred candidate doesn’t win, and of course one of the two candidates being allowed to run despite the fact he should’ve been convicted on impeachment (twice) and therefore disqualified from running.

Can we much about this was fair?

pariston_hill

@Time-Control-Magician
Literally nothing in the US electoral system is fair. Absolutely nothing. The Founding Fathers rigged the game for big land owners (themselves) and it has been this way ever since.

Time Control Magician

@pariston_hill said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@Time-Control-Magician
Literally nothing in the US electoral system is fair. Absolutely nothing. The Founding Fathers rigged the game for big land owners (themselves) and it has been this way ever since.

I mean you’re not telling me something I don’t already know. The problem is many people educated and not don’t know this.

andre

The more I think about this the more I realize politics is a silly game. We have more ways than ever to reach people and instead of making it easier, it's made it more difficult. People have never been more disconnected from major news and prone to disinformation. Kamala is a neocon and the democratic party is conservative, but the policy was very easily on her side this time for just about everyone, but simple is what sells to a vast part of the electorate. Inflation was everywhere and was handled here better than everywhere else, but that's such a hard message. I'm frankly not convinced that the leftist policies I like would have been enough, but I do know the messaging didn't do its job.

Satsuki

@Nobodyman said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@andre Sorry, I was referring to the MAGA slogan.

Yes, true enough that the Tea Party itself is basically defunct, though I might argue that its influence still lingers.

Didn't the Tea Party just basically turn into MAGA?

pariston_hill

@Time-Control-Magician said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

I mean you’re not telling me something I don’t already know. The problem is many people educated and not don’t know this.

If you want and need to deprogram people from the propagandized view of politics and history (which you guys need) one must never be enough pedagogical.

cooldud

@andre said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@cooldud I don't agree. The working class has been duped. Democrat messaging was bad and the Biden situation was unfortunate, but my experience is that people that would be otherwise decent have given in to hatred and done so pretty easily. Other slurs in my plant were too dirty to say here and the guys in general were anti POC and LGBTQ.

They’ve always been that way, and they’ve voted Democrat in the past. Consistently. Reliably. Until the party went neoliberal, broke the unions by exporting all the jobs and left middle America in the dust.

And if you’re going to stop speaking to people because they don’t pass your purity tests, you’re not winning elections.

The unspoken truth about many working class people is that they are individualistic to the point of being selfish and want things to be simple. They don't want to believe that they have moral failures because they go to church and hate the right people. I say this knowing that many of these guys are "decent" with a lowercase d. I think it's really complex, but I don't know how the left talks to them if they see a banana and call it an ostrich.

I don’t know what to tell you. Them being individualistic flies in the face of the fact that they’re the most pro-union swath of people in the entire country. More than people on the coasts.

That's not to say that democrats did even a halfway decent job of doing that, but I'm not convinced that any leftist can get that demographic.

This is aside from thoughts about the missing 15 million plus and what separated them from Kamala.

That is an explicit lack of enthusiasm. Biden has residual goodwill in the midwest and (ironic, given their own races) a better coalition with grassroots black leaders.

You don’t lose all the blue wall states unless you lose the working class.

Time Control Magician

@pariston_hill said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

If you want and need to deprogram people from the propagandized view of politics and history (which you guys need) one must never be enough pedagogical.

Don’t know between the fact here in the U.S. educators are underpaid and under-appreciated. Along with the fact they constantly have to put up with bullshit from kids & their parents.

That’s a hell of an ask.

Robby

Things to keep in mind when it comes to the vote totals.

Not all votes are in yet, particularly in California. Final tally will probably be millions higher for Harris, just not anywhere that matters.
For all intents and purposes, this was a second term Biden run, and incumbents often lose a few million second time around. And for all the good that Biden did, he was an unpopular president because he got to deal with the aftermath of Covid and got blamed for all of Trump's economic policies (in the same way Trump got all the credit for Obama). Losing a few million was to be expected.

(Like Biden stood with and saved a bunch of unions and they still all went in for Trump?)

What wasn't expected was that Trump would do this well again after January 6 and the convictions and selling state secrets and.... the everything... but apparently people just really do not care about that and it really isn't a crime if the president does it. If only Nixon had known.

If you look at Kamala's polling, it nosedived about a month ago... when her campaigning changed and the novelty wore off. I think it the election had been in October she would have done better, as stupid and fickle as that is. Still starting a campaign from scratch 100 days out and coming this close is still impressive, even if the result sucks.

@andre said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@Robby There are a lot of minorities in the middle class.

Sure. But the minorities in this case that were talked about constantly on both sides were very specifically whittled down to "trans folk that are doing surgery in your classrooms" and "insane asylum people that eat dogs and cats." Not the much broader, for example, "women" and "Latinos".

My best friend in the world for 25 years is trans. That's absolutely an important thing to protect and fight for, it's a very important issue for me. But it's not an issue that gets Joe Shmoe that doesn't know any of "those people" excited to vote.

It SUCKS, but that seems to be one of the microcosms of the shift.

They lost the blue wall, they lost the middle class. People feel failed. For whatever reason, they feel let down.

Satsuki

Charles would be ashamed at all this.

Time Control Magician

@Robby said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

(Like Biden stood with and saved a bunch of unions and they still all went in for Trump?)

As aggravating as more blacks going for Trump the guy that’s not missed a chance to show his dislike for blacks. And represents a party that’s spent the last decade and a half disenfranchising blacks and most notably during Biden’s term blocked voting rights legislation they may have counteracted the above.

But yeah what they do lose voting for Trump?

pariston_hill

I beg y'll to look at the numbers and stop threading any other demographic that's not white as a monolith.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls

JulieYBM

@pariston_hill said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

I beg y'll to look at the numbers and stop threading any other demographic that's not white as a monolith.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls

The fact that 53% of white women voted from Trump—if I'm reading these right—sure is a great sign that they will always support White Supremacy before they support other women and queer people.

Fucking disgusting all around.

pariston_hill

@JulieYBM
Yup. Before any other intersectionality a white person in a racialized society is always white first anything else second.

MetaMario

jesus, looks like Kamala didn't win any swing state.

andre

@Time-Control-Magician

Misogyny has had a turnup in corners of the black community recently. Podcasts like fresh and fit have a similar reach among the youth as joe Rogan does in other communities. I have family who voted for Trump and it all either came down to not believing a woman could lead, or vague monetary hopes.

As alluded to, though, like always. More black people voted for Trump than last time, but we are the block, especially BLACK WOMEN, that held it down, because we are the block, especially BLACK WOMEN, that understand the repercussions of all this and have been here before. I called my momma after the election and she was distraught. This is pretty important to me.

andre

@Robby I don't really agree with that. Trans folks were brought up more by the right as a Boogeyman than the left as a fulcrum of the campaign. An 8 year hate campaign is just now bearing political fruit.

I do think Kamala missed whiffed on messaging, but not that she over emphasized the "wrong minorities".

Robby

@andre said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@Robby I don't really agree with that. Trans folks were brought up more by the right as a Boogeyman than the left as a fulcrum of the campaign. An 8 year hate campaign is just now bearing political fruit.

I'm paraphrasing. I'm not going to bring up every example of horrific racism and failure to counter-campaigning, we'd be here all month, I just went with those two examples because they had very specific examples that immediately came to mind.

Nitwit

@Satsuki He would probably die again after someone revives him. It's pretty heartbroken America gone extremely right-wing. Really nothing we can do about it.

Johnny B. Decent

@Nitwit To be honest, I would say America is usually more conservative then not. I mean, the guy who wrote "All men are created equal" owned slaves.

Nobodyman

pariston_hill

@Nobodyman
No kidding, this is probably the best joke (which is not an actual joke but an sarcastic observation) of the whole run of Family Guy.

Satsuki

Nitwit

@Satsuki The sad thing about it. I could definitely see these type of people get upset if you insult God King Trump. We are so cooked.

Time Control Magician

To semi quote Scott Steiner.

Fuck them, and Fuck him too.

cooldud

… and they called Arizona for the doofus, completing the sweep of the swing states.

So interesting that the Dems are holding on down-ballot. They held on to Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada in the senate and are doing well in the House races. Biden staying in the race so long and then replacing him with such a terrible candidate really cost them on the top of the ticket.

Riddler

@pariston_hill said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

Alright, enough vibe base analysis

Just going by the numbers:
Trump 2020: 74,223,975
Trump 2024: 71,880,307
Difference: -2,343,668

Biden 2020: 81,283,501
Harris 2024: 67,030,608
Difference: -14,252,893

There was not a shift to the right on the voters zeitgeist, the DNC sowed a shitty campaign and reaped an electoral disaster.

Those numbers actually aren't correct since they were taken at an too early date. Now that more votes have been counted, we are at:

Trump 2020: 74,223,975
Trump 2024: 74,650,754
Difference: 426,779

Biden 2020: 81,283,501
Harris 2024: 70,916,946
Difference: -10,366,555

So the Democrats lost around 10 million votes, while Trump pretty much got the same amount as in 2020, with a slight, but probably statistically insignificant increase.

I'm not trying to make a point or anything, just want to get the facts straight. It does paint a pretty clear picture though: I agree that the election was overall lost due to voter apathy on the Democratic side, but the fact that over 70 million people in the US are willing to vote Trump after all these lawsuits, the amount of bullshit he spews and his blatant coup attempt on January 6th...

onemoment

Honestly, the fact that Democrats lost due to voter apathy is better than some post-election analysis I've heard. Yes, it's disgusting that Trump got so many votes, but Republican voters are generally terrible. The fact that Democrats neglected to vote at least means that if they're encouraged that future elections might be more competitive.

I'm also saying that trying to ignore Project 2025 for now. That whole mess is something I don't want to think about until it happens at this point.

MetaMario

@cooldud said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

So interesting that the Dems are holding on down-ballot. They held on to Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada in the senate and are doing well in the House races. Biden staying in the race so long and then replacing him with such a terrible candidate really cost them on the top of the ticket.

this is a bit more comforting (hopefully 2028 midterms are favorable).
WV and MT were expected to be losses anyway, but losing in Ohio and Texas (Cancun Ted again) is rough.

regardless, the Repubs don't have a supermajority so Dems have to slow down wherever they can....

pariston_hill

@onemoment said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

I'm also saying that trying to ignore Project 2025 for now.

Which in itself in absolutely ludicrous. Who thought putting all the christo-fascists short term plans in a single public document is a good idea? Almost makes one think the whole thing is a deception for something worse.

That being said, there's very few things in that - from what I saw and recall - that really reaally reaaally need GOP absolute control to pass.

Nitwit

@pariston_hill The Democratic Party seems to be trying to attract right-wing votes by being transphobic and claiming that trans women do not belong in female-only sports. I believe this stance makes the party fundamentally flawed. We need a new third-party movement that is exclusively LGBTQ+ friendly and does not accept funding from corporations.

Time Control Magician

@Nitwit said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

We need a new third-party movement that is exclusively LGBTQ+ friendly and does not accept funding from corporations.

All well and good except in order for this to be feasible you’d have to ban things like Citizens United since while corporate donations doesn’t guarantee you’ll win an election, you practically need it alongside strong voter outreach & canvassing.

That also somehow have avoid to fringe fuckery.

Robby

Maybe if a third party ever gets more than .4% of the vote.

Perot was the last time there was anything remotely viable and that was before Citizens United and he was self funded.

Satsuki

Also can''t deny that sexism and racism were a big part of her losing. Too many Americans were subconsciously or consciously not willing to vote for a Black woman.

Gizmo

@Riddler said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

@pariston_hill said in American Politics: A Brand New Day:

Alright, enough vibe base analysis

Just going by the numbers:
Trump 2020: 74,223,975
Trump 2024: 71,880,307
Difference: -2,343,668

Biden 2020: 81,283,501
Harris 2024: 67,030,608
Difference: -14,252,893

There was not a shift to the right on the voters zeitgeist, the DNC sowed a shitty campaign and reaped an electoral disaster.

Those numbers actually aren't correct since they were taken at an too early date. Now that more votes have been counted, we are at:

Trump 2020: 74,223,975
Trump 2024: 74,650,754
Difference: 426,779

Biden 2020: 81,283,501
Harris 2024: 70,916,946
Difference: -10,366,555

So the Democrats lost around 10 million votes, while Trump pretty much got the same amount as in 2020, with a slight, but probably statistically insignificant increase.

I'm not trying to make a point or anything, just want to get the facts straight. It does paint a pretty clear picture though: I agree that the election was overall lost due to voter apathy on the Democratic side, but the fact that over 70 million people in the US are willing to vote Trump after all these lawsuits, the amount of bullshit he spews and his blatant coup attempt on January 6th...

I’m annoyed I’m trying to look up stats now…
Trying to find a site that has data from 2020 and 2024 by state

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

vs

https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/

Here’s a stat I find interesting: CA results 2020 vs 2024.

2020: 11.1M votes Biden (63.5%) vs 6 M Donald Trump (34.3%)
2024: 7.72 M votes Kamala (58.9%) vs 4.99 M Donald Trump (38.1%)
the real kicker (78% reporting)

Based on these numbers, 3.7 Million votes still need to be taken into account.
If you assume the percentages stay the same:
Kamala (9.89 M total)
Potentially 2.1 M votes not accounted for for Kamala
Trump (6.40 M total)
Potentially 1.4 M votes not accounted for for Trump

Just to show how much polling is still left to go just using 1 state as an example. Maybe we should cool it with the comparisons to 2020 until the final numbers come in a few months from now.

Still think the poll numbers themselves are worth looking into, just more looking into percentages, swing states numbers and comparing voting numbers or looking at states that voted blue in 2020 and voted red in 2024.

Again, numbers aren’t final, but a site that shows stats including states that swung from blue to red (Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia)
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/11/10/us-election-results-map-2024-how-does-it-compare-to-2020

So for example, Wisconsin:
2020: 1.63M Biden (49.4%) vs 1.6M Trump (48.8%)
2024 (95% estimated reporting): 1.67M Kamala (48.8%) vs 1.7M Trump (49.7%)

Etc.

Edit: Looking at percentages though, assuming the percentages stay the same and a 100% result rate, 4.5% in California swung Republican. That’s roughly 750,000 votes right there. Again, CA is solidly Blue so not really concerned the state as a whole will turn, but that is a significantly bigger switch in 2024 than expected.

Another stat I find intriguing, my numbers assume the total vote in CA in 2024 will end up roughly 16.8 M total. In 2020, 17.48 M roughly voted. That’s roughly 680,000 votes that abstained too. Again, I’m assuming my total in 2024 is correct, but given the estimated percentage in 2024 isn’t precise and there’s such a large number of voters in CA, that number could just be estimation errors. Again, worth waiting for the results to finalize in a few months to confirm how much abstaining really played a part here.

pariston_hill

@Gizmo
Given that there's no unified electronic voting, total raw data make that time to compile, but given the DNC lost the popular vote is fair to say abstention was indeed a problem, Donnie kept his core and Dems coalition was undone.

Another thing to look is that the Harris campaign ended up 20M in the red. And just Oprah alone appearing at a rally costed 1M. I think an audit of it should be good.

Gizmo

@pariston_hill I’m also pointing out in a week, roughly 6.657 Million votes have been taken into consideration, yet because we’re posting simple stats with incomplete data people are making a lot of big assumptions. A week ago we were proclaiming 14M democrats didn’t vote. Then the new numbers told a story that 10M Democrats didn’t vote, but Trump numbers stayed the same. Willing to bet more Trump votes are coming in, so the final story will likely show a lot of Americans switched and voted Republican and the abstaining numbers might be significantly less.

We’re proclaiming how fake news is terrible and how bad it is to spread misinformation, but showing simple numbers like we did without clarifying a full story is doing the same thing, skewing a narrative to sell an agenda.

pariston_hill

@Gizmo
I present the data as it was at the time, and by no means tried to portray it as the final picture of it.

But I disagree on voter base shift towards the right, I do think a bad campaign that went hard to trying to capture the fictional Niki Haley voters is one part of why Dems had bad numbers.

And by far solely going by numbers albeit incomplete is miles better than the media pundits trying to point the blame of a too "woke" campaign or attacking minorities for not voting hard enough on the dems.