Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

Huschel

I don’t quite understand the purpose of the question. Obviously they go for the win, the firefighter succeeding just means they won’t be able to ignite as many as they think.

If the arsonists don't immediately win once they ignite, they more or less wasted a night action and severely cut down the suspect list.

One more thought about lynching today before I go: if we lynch a tree, we will have a confirmed Forest dweller to give input tomorrow. If we lynch an arsonist, even better. If we lynch the firefighter…um, well...good night.

--- Update From New Post Merge ---

(P.S.: I was much more excited about my role before I knew everybody had the same thing)

Jabberwok

The firefighter should never claim unless a) they're about to be lynched or b) a less-than-expected number of Trees ignite, since they'll be able to confirm both themselves and another late game.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

Lynching today is a good idea in my opinion. An 8/9 chance of having a not bad result ain't bad, as as Huschel said a dead player is a confirmed town that can still offer input, so it's not detrimental at this point. We have a much higher chance of it being helpful than it not being. I'm up for lynching someone that my gut says is scum.
That said, if we lynch the firefighter I'll eat my own foot in rage.

Honestly took me forever to find the link you were all talking about. If you want to hide a tree, use a forest, I guess.

Shinobu Mahara

Okay so im gonna try and post something before my internet tries to tell me I cant connect again.
Personally I dont even know if this message will send but im typing it out anyway

As far as I can tell at this stage is Shuhan and I aren't okay with a D1 lynch. Where SUDK and Jabberwok are perfectly okay with it. Wooden is okay with lynching D1 inactives, which i can understand and by no means disagree with it, even if I don't want D1 lynches.

Never liked the numbers but if people really want my point of view on it
9 people playing, so i'm gonna go with either 2-3 mafia, 'cause that's generally 1/3rd.
Not exactly sure if there can be more than one firefighter, and I cant load another webpage to check which is great ;-;

Seemingly cant give much info due to internet struggle but will try to rectify it in the meantime so I can actually post something worthwhile if at all.. (if it lets me, we'll see i guess)

Jabberwok

There's one firefighter, two arsonists, and six trees. It's on the linked page.

le crystal

I would say that lynching today is more beneficial than a no lynch. We either manage to get an arsonist or we still have a confirmed… treenie to talk to us tomorrow whose input we don’t have to doubt.

I have faith in our firefighter in self preservation.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Shinobu Mahara

But what happens under the circumstance that the firefighter dies D1 or N1. Then we have kinda boned ourselves.
Not only that but if the firefighter refuses to show themself, and its too late then where do we go from there?

2 mafia, 1 firefighter means we have a more than likely chance of getting a tree down than a mafia. Unless of course already there is dousing in play. In any event we may get lucky, but i wouldnt go to the effort of saying its more beneficial at this point to down a player without evidence.

@le crys, you may have faith in the firefighter, but does the firefighter have faith in themself? :ninja:

Jabberwok

No one can die Night 1. Priming and ignition have to occur on different nights so no night kills can occur until Night 2 at the earliest. And most of us are in agreement that the arsonists will try to kill as many of us as possible instead of one by one, so we probably won't even see a night kill on Night 2.

If the firefighter gets lynched, that's their own damn fault. Claiming is infinitely preferable to being lynched, especially when they can potentially protect themselves from being killed at night.

And of course there's a greater chance of lynching a…natureboi?... than an arsonist. That's how the game works. And without any investigative roles or even successive night kills to work off of, we're not going to have much evidence in the first place.

Huschel

@Shinobu: You really need to familiarize yourself with the setup before leading people in unnecessary directions. Here's an incentive:

Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara I'll ask you the same question I gave Wooden: Do you think the arsonists would try to go for the win as soon as possible or would they try to be more conservative?@Jabberwok:The firefighter has to target 'one other player'.

@lecrystal and SUDK: Are you familiar with the hypo cop strategy? Or hypo firefighter in our case. You don't need to be because here is the crux of it:

! > Hypo claim A hypo claim is where everyone claims the same role, such as cop, and outs a report. This is done so that if the real cop dies, the town knows their report. This strategy is not foolproof, however, because it helps the mafia figure out the real cop in the first place. Tell me why we should or shouldn't deploy this strategy.

@Shuhan: Do you think it is a Forest player's duty to appear not scummy?

Galaxy 9000

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Shinobu Mahara (1): Huschel
Not Voting (8): SUDK, SpaceCowboy, Jabberwok, Shuhan, Shinobu Mahara, Kitsune Inferno, Wooden_Giraffe, le Crystal

A little under 37 hours remain.

Shinobu Mahara

@Huschel:

@Shinobu: You really need to familiarize yourself with the setup before leading people in unnecessary directions. Here's an incentive:

Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara I'll ask you the same question I gave Wooden: Do you think the arsonists would try to go for the win as soon as possible or would they try to be more conservative?@Jabberwok:The firefighter has to target 'one other player'.

@lecrystal and SUDK: Are you familiar with the hypo cop strategy? Or hypo firefighter in our case. You don't need to be because here is the crux of it:

Tell me why we should or shouldn't deploy this strategy.

@Shuhan: Do you think it is a Forest player's duty to appear not scummy?

I believe that the arsonists will kill off first at random unless of course someone does seem like a genuine threat. Really what i think doesnt change what might happen. As much as I think they would be more conservative, they could very well change their play style just to throw the game into chaos.
All I can say is your vote seems hella premature, and im not surprised. keep in mind I was having internet struggles at the time, however you're probably right in saying i should familiarize myself with it before i start the "unnessary directions".
By now you surely realize this is a common theme amongst how I play.. just let it go, dude/ ma'am.

No point really defending myself against your vote considering its "incentive". Regardless of whats been said I still dont advocate for a D1 lynch.
The chances are that the firefighter has/will save themselves for now, and mafia may very well get lucky on which one they hit. Saving not just 1 tree, but 2.
You guys seem to think just because there are limited players (9) that D1 lynch is a good thing. But through all the explanations I just dont see it.

On another note, there is a possibility that the firefighter may not be able to save themself, and only act like a doctor/healer role.
What do others think about this possibility, and in such a case, what might people suggest for that person? Claiming in that event would not be enough. It would be a confirmed kill at that point?
They may not necessarily be safe at night phase, we'd save someone, but the future safety of the trees would be in jeopardy.

Huschel

@Shinobu:

I believe that the arsonists will kill off first at random unless of course someone does seem like a genuine threat. Really what i think doesnt change what might happen. As much as I think they would be more conservative, they could very well change their play style just to throw the game into chaos.
All I can say is your vote seems hella premature, and im not surprised. keep in mind I was having internet struggles at the time, however you're probably right in saying i should familiarize myself with it before i start the "unnessary directions".
By now you surely realize this is a common theme amongst how I play.. just let it go, dude/ ma'am.

Whether it's common or not isn't particularly relevant. If I feel like it's scummy behaviour I'm going to call it out. What was your alignment again last game? :ninja:

No point really defending myself against your vote considering its "incentive". Regardless of whats been said I still dont advocate for a D1 lynch.
The chances are that the firefighter has/will save themselves for now, and mafia may very well get lucky on which one they hit. Saving not just 1 tree, but 2.
You guys seem to think just because there are limited players (9) that D1 lynch is a good thing. But through all the explanations I just dont see it.

Can you elaborate on this, please?

On another note, there is a possibility that the firefighter may not be able to save themself, and only act like a doctor/healer role.
What do others think about this possibility, and in such a case, what might people suggest for that person? Claiming in that event would not be enough. It would be a confirmed kill at that point?
They may not necessarily be safe at night phase, we'd save someone, but the future safety of the trees would be in jeopardy.

According to the rules, the firefighter can't target themselves. I mentioned that above but granted the formatting was a little messed up.

Of course, claiming must not happen prematurely. But keep in mind that it takes the arsonists two nights to kill a specific person (unless they had already been doused beforehand) so the firefighter might not even die immediately. Still, caution is obviously advised.

Galaxy 9000

@Shinobu:

I believe that the arsonists will kill off first at random unless of course someone does seem like a genuine threat. Really what i think doesnt change what might happen. As much as I think they would be more conservative, they could very well change their play style just to throw the game into chaos.
All I can say is your vote seems hella premature, and im not surprised. keep in mind I was having internet struggles at the time, however you're probably right in saying i should familiarize myself with it before i start the "unnessary directions".
By now you surely realize this is a common theme amongst how I play.. just let it go, dude/ ma'am.

No point really defending myself against your vote considering its "incentive". Regardless of whats been said I still dont advocate for a D1 lynch.
The chances are that the firefighter has/will save themselves for now, and mafia may very well get lucky on which one they hit. Saving not just 1 tree, but 2.
You guys seem to think just because there are limited players (9) that D1 lynch is a good thing. But through all the explanations I just dont see it.

On another note, there is a possibility that the firefighter may not be able to save themself, and only act like a doctor/healer role.
What do others think about this possibility, and in such a case, what might people suggest for that person? Claiming in that event would not be enough. It would be a confirmed kill at that point?
They may not necessarily be safe at night phase, we'd save someone, but the future safety of the trees would be in jeopardy.

I know your connection is a bit spotty, and that may have been a contributor to this, but please do not edit your posts. Usually, one instance of this would result in a modkill, but I'm going to be a little lenient here because of both the small player size we have in this game, and because of the connection issues you've been having.

To everybody else, I received confirmation that the edit was just adding the final paragraph, with no other edits, so it's no different from posting a new post and it merging. In future cases where you want to clarify something in your post, you must do so in a new post.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

@Huschel:

@lecrystal and SUDK: Are you familiar with the hypo cop strategy? Or hypo firefighter in our case. You don't need to be because here is the crux of it:

Tell me why we should or shouldn't deploy this strategy.

What would be the point of employing it? Upon the firefighter's death, we'd find out who is not currently primed. Knowing if someone is or isn't doused doesn't help much, as nothing can be done about priming once it's happened. It would help us see who won't die during the next ignition-phase, which I can't see being helpful. I feel like it would be more risky for the firefighter than beneficial to us, considering they're our only line of defense against the mafia. I think we should not employ the strategy.
I have heard of the strategy, though, though I can't remember a situation where it's happened off the top of my head.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

@Galaxy: I don't agree with it, but I understand your reasons for not modkilling Shinobu.

@Huschel: Was that vote on Shinobu genuine? You play it off in the post, but you seem genuinely concerned that he was leading us in a certain direction wrongfully.

le crystal

@Huschel:

@lecrystal and SUDK: Are you familiar with the hypo cop strategy? Or hypo firefighter in our case. You don't need to be because here is the crux of it:

Tell me why we should or shouldn't deploy this strategy.

Yes I am, it doesn't seem like much harm for everyone (excluding tree stumps) to state their 'firefighter report' in their first post of the day. If our firefighter unfortunately dies we at least can have useful info he collected to work with via the reports he sent in every day, and info you don't have to doubt about too much is always good.

I could see this giving the arsonists (and us) another mind game to play though: eg me the plain ol tree send a random cop report saying 'SUDK is an arsonist'. If I am among the ignited a few days later, questions will definitely arise like 'is SUDK one of the arsonists and he and his buddy thought I am the firefighter, but in truth I just got lucky and now its a sizeable amount of proof that he's an arsonist' or 'are the arsonists just trying to frame SUDK?'

I'll be back later to read and analyse the other posts better, in a bit of a rush right now.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

that formatting ;-;

Shinobu Mahara

@Huschel:

Whether it's common or not isn't particularly relevant. If I feel like it's scummy behaviour I'm going to call it out. What was your alignment again last game? :ninja:

By all means call me out for scummy behaviour, but as a member of mere tree people I am not going to bother defending/pleading my case. There'd be no point, but i will try my best to read up on this stuff so you can go forward into a more pressing issue.
Alignment last game doesnt really give much for the current game, albeit aligned mafia at the time (hehe).

Can you elaborate on this, please?

On the bold part? Cause if thats the case i was talking about the firefighter possibly (at the time) could have saved themself at the same time as being targeted by mafia, much like a bulletproof/side effect of doctor.
If its not that you're looking for, then im not sure.

Of course, claiming must not happen prematurely. But keep in mind that it takes the arsonists two nights to kill a specific person (unless they had already been doused beforehand) so the firefighter might not even die immediately. Still, caution is obviously advised.

Noted. Will have read through extensively by next post.

@Galaxy, won't happen again boss. By all means if i do it in a future game, make sure you kill me for doing so. I need to learn from my mistakes.

Jabberwok

@BananaStan I'm hesitant to say too much since I don't want to influence the arsonists towards what I consider the optimal route. Suffice to say that both strategies have significant risks and it will probably depend on how well we're doing as a forest.

Huschel

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

What would be the point of employing it? Upon the firefighter's death, we'd find out who is not currently primed. Knowing if someone is or isn't doused doesn't help much, as nothing can be done about priming once it's happened. It would help us see who won't die during the next ignition-phase, which I can't see being helpful. I feel like it would be more risky for the firefighter than beneficial to us, considering they're our only line of defense against the mafia. I think we should not employ the strategy.
I have heard of the strategy, though, though I can't remember a situation where it's happened off the top of my head.

The idea was that once the firefighter dies and assuming that not as many people died at once as would be expected, we would know that the firefighter had protected someone and we could potentially clear a townie. I don't see any danger for the firefighter themselves but there's still a couple downsides to this. Thanks for indulging me though.

@Huschel: Was that vote on Shinobu genuine? You play it off in the post, but you seem genuinely concerned that he was leading us in a certain direction wrongfully.

It was genuine.

@le:

Yes I am, it doesn't seem like much harm for everyone (excluding tree stumps) to state their 'firefighter report' in their first post of the day. If our firefighter unfortunately dies we at least can have useful info he collected to work with via the reports he sent in every day, and info you don't have to doubt about too much is always good.

I could see this giving the arsonists (and us) another mind game to play though: eg me the plain ol tree send a random cop report saying 'SUDK is an arsonist'. If I am among the ignited a few days later, questions will definitely arise like 'is SUDK one of the arsonists and he and his buddy thought I am the firefighter, but in truth I just got lucky and now its a sizeable amount of proof that he's an arsonist' or 'are the arsonists just trying to frame SUDK?'

I'll be back later to read and analyse the other posts better, in a bit of a rush right now.

I feel like you blended some different scenarios together? Why would anybody be claiming cop reports? Anyway, the hypo strategy had some small weak points when I thought of it and by now I have realized even bigger flaws with it. Not worth it.

@Shinobu:

By all means call me out for scummy behaviour, but as a member of mere tree people I am not going to bother defending/pleading my case. There'd be no point, but i will try my best to read up on this stuff so you can go forward into a more pressing issue.
Alignment last game doesnt really give much for the current game, albeit aligned mafia at the time (hehe).

My point was that you behaved similarly last game and in that one you were mafia. I believe some people let you get away with little things because they thought it was just you being you and I don't want to do that in this game.
@Shinobu:

On the bold part? Cause if thats the case i was talking about the firefighter possibly (at the time) could have saved themself at the same time as being targeted by mafia, much like a bulletproof/side effect of doctor.
If its not that you're looking for, then im not sure.

So the mafia getting lucky means dousing a person who is not being protected? That seems rather likely, unfortunately.

And I'm still not sure if everybody knows that the firefighter cannot target themselves.

Unvote. Vote Lynch: Kitsune Inferno
Vote: Day Extend Why KI and not Space? No reason.

SpaceCowboy

@Huschel: Why are you so insistent on the Fire fighter revealing himself?
You made that suggestion on your first post of the Day, and now you are suggesting the Hypo scenario, which is frankly useless because the role of the firefighter is not investigatory. If anything, it allows the mafia to know if one of their Night targets for dousing is safe. It tells the town nothing.

@Jabber & Wooden: Assuming Kitsune will still show up, eventually, how do you decide who should be lynched?
@Le Crystal: Regarding post #65, it won't really work like that since the Fire fighter doesn't know with certainty who is a tree or an Arsonist.

With this being said, I'm still trying to understand the reason why people want a lynch today.
I understand that the fact that there won't be any deaths during the Night makes people want a lynch to start cutting some numbers, but I would rather postpone a potential lynch to D2 quite honestly, even if it is for the chance of lynching a doused player.

I'm still trying to understand if the tree stump state is beneficial or negative. I'm partially concerned that there might be too many "noise"/ideas spread around, but at least it prevents lack of conversation.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

@Huschel:

Vote: Day Extend

Why? 16 chars of

Huschel

I'm mobile so this is gonna be short.

Space, stop putting words in my mouth, please. I brought up the hypo ff because there is literally 0 risk for that role. Am I wrong? There is other issues with the strategy and I have acknowledged as much.

Why not extend the day? It had been 24 hours with two players missing.

BellisarioFaith

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Kitsune Inferno (1): Huschel
Not Voting (8): SUDK, SpaceCowboy, Jabberwok, Shuhan, Shinobu Mahara, Kitsune Inferno, Wooden_Giraffe, le crystal

About 26 hours remain.

SpaceCowboy

The entire hypo strategy revolves around someone that can have a correct info on someone's allignment and to enable that person to report their findings with reduced risk.
In this case, for us as forest, it doesn't give us any conclusive info. If anything, it warns the mafia that someone might have screwed them out of one or two kills and allows them to rethink their strategy and approach to the game.

Not even 24 hours have passed. I personally just had a busy time and couldn't access a computer till now.

@Huschel:

Shuhan, when if ever do you think the Firefighter should reveal themselves?

Yeah, I might have misinterpreted this one. It was just a question to keep the conversation flowing.

Kitsune Inferno

Hey guys sorry for the late arrival. Im here just busy as fuck today. I will be around later this afternoon or some time tomorrow.

Forgive me! And dont lynch me!

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

I will be much more available tomorrow so Id also like to

Vote: Day Extend

Shuhan

I am a work comp tonight so I should be able to post tonight more. Will be back.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

Wait, Huschel, why did you change your vote? Do you think a pressure vote is more important than a vote of suspicion? Assuming that vote on Kitsune is genuine as well.

I'll agree to a day extend if it helps anyone. No skin off my nose.
Vote: Day Extend

@Space: I'm all for lynching today because it can push discussion forward quicker, and discussion is all we've got. How do you think a no lynch today would help the town?

@Shuhan: I'll extend that question to you, too, because as I recall you had that view as well?

SpaceCowboy

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

@Space: I'm all for lynching today because it can push discussion forward quicker, and discussion is all we've got. How do you think a no lynch today would help the town?

We know the set-up so a lynch wouldn't really tell us any info we don't know.
Chances are we hit a tree. If we happen to target the Firefighter, he will have to claim on D1. While it doesn't put his life in jeopardy, it does make the job easier for the mafia, especially because that pretty much means he will defend himself during N1.
Also, if we only lynch on D2, we might lynch the person the mafia has doused.

On the other hand, I can understand that in a game with no silly roles and open setup the only way to push forward the conversation is by acting and that involved votes and lynches.
Also, if we lynch someone today, we do increase the chances of the firefighter protecting someone doused.

Let me consider this for a bit.

Shinobu Mahara

Okie, up to date and ready to not be hounded for confusion.
As far as i can understand thus far:
Me and Space advocate for a no lynch, although space seems like he’d consider a lynch.
Wooden, huschel, jabberwok and SUDK are all okay with a lynch yoday (good for them).

Not sure if i fully understand both sides of hypoclaiming. Its both beneficial for town and mafia.
And without it, what do we fall back on?

Also, after reading back in detail i realized how to answer the question.
If i was mafia, id prime as many people as possible, and then later game just be like “burn baby burn”.
Would that be considered conservative, or high risk high reward?

Kitsune Inferno

Okay, read through everything. Sorry for the late arrival.

I agree that we should be focused on lynching. It doesn't make sense not to because with nine players our firefighter is at her least effective and I feel like in this setup, we need to act quickly. The fewer night phases we give the arsonists, the better, right?

I don't really have many new observations to offer at this point, so let's get down to scumhunting.

Huschel: You've probably taken the most visible stance amongst the forest. Do you worry this might make you a target for burnering?

Jabberwok: From what I can gather, Shuhan, Shinobu, and Space have all advocated not lynching at some point. Do you think our arsonists are among these three or would that be too obvious?

I'll be back in a bit.

Galaxy 9000

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Kitsune Inferno (1): Huschel

Not Voting (8): SUDK, SpaceCowboy, Jabberwok, Shuhan, Shinobu Mahara, Kitsune Inferno, Wooden_Giraffe, le crystal

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to extend the day.

Day Extension (3): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno, SUDK

A little over 13 hours remain.

Jabberwok

@SpaceCowboy:

@Jabber & Wooden: Assuming Kitsune will still show up, eventually, how do you decide who should be lynched?

Whoever seems least helpful or seems to have the poorest grasp of the rules, unless anyone should seem particularly suspicious (no one has really caught my eye yet). Particularly on this first day, it's basically a random guess.

@Kitsune:

Jabberwok: From what I can gather, Shuhan, Shinobu, and Space have all advocated not lynching at some point. Do you think our arsonists are among these three or would that be too obvious?

Typically I'd estimate we'd have one arsonist advocating for lynch and the other against. However, given the timeline of when we received our PMs and when the game began, I think it's a reasonable assumption that the scum haven't identified each other yet. Without established coordination and with fewer numbers, they have a lot more risk than usual involved with a lynch. I'd expect at least one, if not both scum, to be pushing back against a lynch.

Huschel

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

Wait, Huschel, why did you change your vote? Do you think a pressure vote is more important than a vote of suspicion? Assuming that vote on Kitsune is genuine as well.

I'm unsure why you keep questioning my votes. I believe both times my reasons were pretty obvious reasons but feel free to ask why I voted not if I voted.

A (single) pressure vote is just a tool to express dissatisfaction. In KI's case he hadn't shown up yet so lynching him seemed liked a valid option should he have never shown at all.
A vote of suspicion is way more important because that is one I actually believe in. And other players can therefore use it to scrutinize me as well.

@Shinobu:

Not sure if i fully understand both sides of hypoclaiming. Its both beneficial for town and mafia.
And without it, what do we fall back on?

Personally I would prefer to let it rest at this point. Hypoclaiming is not the way to go in my opinion and I believe a couple people don't totally understand how I meant to employ it. If people want to talk about the hypo strategy more then it should be about the fact that I brought it up and why. Not whether we use it or not.

Also, after reading back in detail i realized how to answer the question.
If i was mafia, id prime as many people as possible, and then later game just be like “burn baby burn”.
Would that be considered conservative, or high risk high reward? Would that be considered conservative, or high risk high reward?

Going for the win as soon as possible would be high risk, high reward. A successful firefightering could screw you but you might just win on the spot.

@Kitsune:

Huschel: You've probably taken the most visible stance amongst the forest. Do you worry this might make you a target for burnering?

It might. But it's not like people agree with me a lot or take in what I write (see below). Regardless, someone will get targeted and there is only one role that should particularly worry about getting cut down. And no, that is not me.

@SpaceCowboy:

We know the set-up so a lynch wouldn't really tell us any info we don't know.
Chances are we hit a tree. If we happen to target the Firefighter, he will have to claim on D1. While it doesn't put his life in jeopardy, it does make the job easier for the mafia, especially because that pretty much means he will defend himself during N1.

@Huschel:

The firefighter has to target 'one other player'.

@Huschel:

According to the rules, the firefighter can't target themselves.

@Huschel:

And I'm still not sure if everybody knows that the firefighter cannot target themselves.

Why are you not reading my posts? :wassat:

Unvote

Shinobu Mahara

If you prefer to not go about that strategy for now, thats cool.
I’m understand why you brought it up, and what benefits it would have for both parties.
Was more saying that im not sure what direction to take in the meantime, if we all decide to take that path.

2nd part: but wouldnt it be an more risky delaying the kills for as long as possible, but solidifying the fact that all trees are doused? But in turn making a longer game and higher stakes of mafia being killed off by the town in the meantime.
Logically, 2 people, albeit making it a little harder, a fast win may not necessarily be easy depending on whether or not both mafia can communicate. However, i believe in a setup like this; that its probably more than likely not the case.

But you tell if that point of view is wrong..

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

@Huschel: You're the only person who's voted, so I'm free to look at them and ask questions. Would you still be willing to pursue a Shinobu lynch?

@Jabberwok: So if we were to lynch one of those three options (Shinobu, Shuhan and Space), you think we'd have at least a 1/3 chance of hitting a Mafia? Do you think this is what we should do?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Also, to make sure I understand it correctly: Firefighter is the same as a Doctor, right?

Galaxy 9000

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Not Voting (9): SUDK, SpaceCowboy, Jabberwok, Shuhan, Shinobu Mahara, Kitsune Inferno, Wooden_Giraffe, le crystal, Huschel

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to extend the day.

Day Extension (3): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno, SUDK

A little over 11 hours remain.

Huschel

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

@Huschel: You're the only person who's voted, so I'm free to look at them and ask questions. Would you still be willing to pursue a Shinobu lynch?

Sorry, that was worded improperly. You should most definitely question my votes. But please don't question if my votes are genuine. I assure you they have been and will be.

As for Shinobu, you tell me. Why should I pursue a Shinobu lynch over other people? Honestly, I already have too many people I'm considering. Shinobu is not that high on the list anymore.

Also, to make sure I understand it correctly: Firefighter is the same as a Doctor, right?

A doctor stops a kill. A firefighter stops somebody getting marked for a kill. They are different roles.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

To clarify. Once somebody has been doused in gasoline by an arsonist, there is nothing the firefighter can do about it. They have to prevent the first step which is the dousing.

--- Update From New Post Merge ---

There is 11 hours left and I get the impression that most people are advocating for a lynch today. I really hope we can make the day extension happen. If we can't do that we may as well self-immolate.

Shinobu Mahara

Vote: Day Extension
Just for you huschel, do with it what you can.
Not sure how useful 1 vote will be but more discussion i guess means more scum-hunting.

So a firefighter can stop a target being marked, but cant stop an already doused player.
So N1 would result in two confirmed doused players, and a more than likely lynch D2.
If the firefighter has not put in their action before the mafia target a player, we could save a potential tree.
That part also falls down to luck considering silence among night phase.
Which by N2 would mean we either start burning, or we have more than comfortable levels of doused players.

Huschel

Okay, you just made me realize that I've been using my words badly. Whenever I said dousing above I meant 'dousing with gasoline' so I was referring to the arsonists priming a target for a later kill. I did not mean the firefighter dousing somebody with water. I apologize if my posts above are confusing, I hope you can see what I meant to say. I think just replacing 'dousing' with 'priming' should do it.

Anyway, thanks for that vote Shinobu. We need one more for an extension.

@ Shinobu: I don't quite follow your thought process about 'two confirmed doused players'. Nobody is doused right now and the firefighter can only protect one player per night. Furthermore, the prevention only works for that particular night phase.

@Shuhan:

Do you think it is a Forest player's duty to appear not scummy?
@Shuhan:

Since there is no investigation and only a firefighter, the vote is our only real weapon against those dastards. I understand your skepticism, but we need to keep our numbers high. At this point so early in the game, it's hard to tell what to do. We need more people to post.

Does this not contradict your no lynch stance? Once again, I don't understand what you expect to be different on D2.

@SpaceCowboy:

I'm still trying to understand if the tree stump state is beneficial or negative. I'm partially concerned that there might be too many "noise"/ideas spread around, but at least it prevents lack of conversation.

You seem to be questioning the usefulness of lynched trees still being able to talk. Can you elaborate on your thoughts here?

@crys, KI, Wooden: I hope you manage to give more input

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

@Huschel: Care to share your suspects, then?

Full disclosure, I don't really have much in the way of suspects, so my vote would go to whatever wagon I see appear at the current time, unless something sticks out to me.
That is, if we get any votes, which is unlikely at this point.

Jabberwok

Vote: Time Extend

I'd really like a lynch today if possible but 3 hours seems too short to achieve one from scratch.

Huschel

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

@Huschel: Care to share your suspects, then?

Full disclosure, I don't really have much in the way of suspects, so my vote would go to whatever wagon I see appear at the current time, unless something sticks out to me.
That is, if we get any votes, which is unlikely at this point.

They might be the obvious ones but right now it's Shuhan and SpaceCowboy. I'm waiting for them to come back.

Wooden_Giraffe

Sorry for vanishing yesterday. I’ll be able to read up on everything and post more after work. I think we got enough but just in case.

**Vote: Day Extend

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Ugggh, I’m too used to zetaboards mechanics.

Vote: Day Extend**

SpaceCowboy

Vote: Time extention
I think the majority is reached with Jabber's vote, but I'll vote just for precaution

@Huschel:

(1) Personally I would prefer to let it rest at this point. Hypoclaiming is not the way to go in my opinion and I believe a couple people don't totally understand how I meant to employ it. If people want to talk about the hypo strategy more then it should be about the fact that I brought it up and why. Not whether we use it or not.

(2) Why are you not reading my posts? :wassat:

(1) - Ok, so how exactly do you meant to employ it? I've already explained why I think it makes no sense to use that strategy when the role that's supposed to be hypoed isn't an investigatory one.

(2) - I did.
I just didn't saw the phrase in "" on #59 on the wiki page and assumed you were lying about it to question someone. Decided to see how it went.
Now after this post I came back to it and realized that it was actually on the role description on the bottom of the page.

@Huschel:

@SpaceCowboy:

You seem to be questioning the usefulness of lynched trees still being able to talk. Can you elaborate on your thoughts here?

That depends on the way people look at "I was lynched".
If they understand that the threat of getting lynched is a way for people to keep the conversation flowing and that even after getting lynched they still will be able to give their input, it's a fine "ability".

If people take it personally, like what happened in many games in the past and get salty or butthurt about it, that will only obstruct their view of the game and they will funnel their analyzes, input and accusations on the guys that led their bandwagon.
This is what concerns me. People having tunnel vision on someone and directing the conversation against them, and ignoring other possible (and most likely/obvious) suspects. I fear this maycause a lot of distraction, but this problem is not on the rule/ablity, but on the player.

The player needs to understand that even if he is lynched, he can still win the game. Getting lynched is no "game over", as long as your party wins in the end, you win as well.

@Jabberwok:

Typically I'd estimate we'd have one arsonist advocating for lynch and the other against. However, given the timeline of when we received our PMs and when the game began, I think it's a reasonable assumption that the scum haven't identified each other yet. Without established coordination and with fewer numbers, they have a lot more risk than usual involved with a lynch. I'd expect at least one, if not both scum, to be pushing back against a lynch.

Do you feel like there's a chance that one of the scum is laying low on purpose due to not having contact with his partner?

–----------------------

@Shinobu: Who do you think has taken a stronger stance on what the Forest should do today?

--- Update From New Post Merge ---

Vote: Day Extension Not sure the mod will be pesky about the wording.

Kitsune Inferno

@Jabberwok:

Whoever seems least helpful or seems to have the poorest grasp of the rules, unless anyone should seem particularly suspicious (no one has really caught my eye yet). Particularly on this first day, it's basically a random guess.

Typically I'd estimate we'd have one arsonist advocating for lynch and the other against. However, given the timeline of when we received our PMs and when the game began, I think it's a reasonable assumption that the scum haven't identified each other yet. Without established coordination and with fewer numbers, they have a lot more risk than usual involved with a lynch. I'd expect at least one, if not both scum, to be pushing back against a lynch.

Hmm. I dont know if I'd agree with that. While I do find the no lynch folks suspicious, I do feel like the arsonists will want to appear as pro-forest as possible and advocate for lynching even if it's less convenient for their wincon. I know it's meta but I do feel it's more probable the arsonists could be independently advocating a lynch in a bid to appear town.

I unfortunately dont have any suspects at present.

Also let me state that hypofighting is a terrible idea.

Huschel

@SpaceCowboy:

(1) - Ok, so how exactly do you meant to employ it? I've already explained why I think it makes no sense to use that strategy when the role that's supposed to be hypoed isn't an investigatory one.

I will spoiler tag my answer because I am not interested in derailing us too much with this anymore.

! 1) Every day each player gives a target they protected the previous night.

Eventually the arsonists ignite their targets. If the firefighter is not dead, nothing happens. If the firefighter is among the victims…
We check if as many people have died as would be expected (one per night - 1). If fewer people died we know that the firefighter managed to protect somebody. We have their public reports and can see who might be a townie.

! I thought of using this in the first place because as opposed to hypo copping, this strategy does in no way endanger the firefighter. The more I thought about it though the more issues I realized myself and you guys have also brought a couple up. For example, this would potentially let the arsonists know that their dousing target had not been protected. Or they could even get cute and not douse anybody at all to maybe clear themselves. In the end, there's little payoff and various risks.
! The end

@SpaceCowboy:

(2) - I did.
I just didn't saw the phrase in "" on #59 on the wiki page and assumed you were lying about it to question someone. Decided to see how it went.
Now after this post I came back to it and realized that it was actually on the role description on the bottom of the page.

I don't quite buy that. Who would I be questioning? The firefighter? And #68 was clearly addressed to everybody.

The player needs to understand that even if he is lynched, he can still win the game. Getting lynched is no "game over", as long as your party wins in the end, you win as well.

True.

Jabberwok

@SpaceCowboy:

Do you feel like there's a chance that one of the scum is laying low on purpose due to not having contact with his partner?

It's certainly possible. Avoiding too many strong statements and generally creating inactivity (particularly without explicitly endorsing it) is probably the most cautious tactic when you don't know your scumbuddy yet. Let's keep an eye out for that.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

To address your point about lynched players, Space, I definitely agree. Having had my fair share of salt myself, I think it's particularly important in this game that things don't get too personal. Pretty much all of our lynches will be guesswork unless we get lucky late in the game, which means we're even more likely to mislynch several innocents. Since everyone can still help out, it's especially important to avoid making or taking things personal.

It'd also be nice to avoid comments like, "If he didn't want to get lynched, he shouldn't have acted so scummy!" Those are useless statements that avoid blame and don't patch things up at all. If you're instrumental in someone's mislynch, be mature and apologize so we can keep trying to win this thing.

SpaceCowboy

@Huschel:

I don't quite buy that. Who would I be questioning? The firefighter? And #68 was clearly addressed to everybody.

Shinobu and SUDK since they were the ones you were adressing at that moment and the ones talking to you about the role of the firefighter.
When I read it I assumed you had either made a mistake or were trying to pull something of them.
When you quoted me in particular I rechecked the wiki and saw that you had drawn that conclusion from "example Role PM's" section. I had only checked the "Notes" section and I got the impression that he could target anyone.

–-----------------------

@Woody and Le Crystal: You have both stated that you would be fine with a lynch today, but haven't stated how we should achieve it.
Do you think anyone in particular deserves to be lynched at this point of the game? If not, what criteria do you purpose to pick the unlucky one?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

@Shinobu:

So a firefighter can stop a target being marked, but cant stop an already doused player.
So N1 would result in two confirmed doused players, and a more than likely lynch D2. If the firefighter has not put in their action before the mafia target a player, we could save a potential tree.
That part also falls down to luck considering silence among night phase.
Which by N2 would mean we either start burning, or we have more than comfortable levels of doused players.

Even though there are 2 arsonists, they can only douse/bobby trap one person per night.

Galaxy 9000

The day has been extended. You have a little over 24 hours left, now.

Jabberwok

Day extended
No new discussion in 3-4 hours

Great use of time guys

Vote Lynch: Shinobu

You seem to have the worst grasp of the parameters of this game and explaining everything is a distraction from more meaningful discussion. You're also in the no-lynch-today group, which I see as some reason for suspicion.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

Well, I guess that answers my question to Jab that he never answered. I'm up for voting for Shinobu if no one pops out at me.

I agree with Huschel that Space "assuming [you] were lying" isn't right.

Activity's gonna dip for me from now until tomorrow.

@Jabberwok:

Day extended
No new discussion in 3-4 hours

Great use of time guysMy excuse was it being 6am.

Jabberwok

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

Well, I guess that answers my question to Jab that he never answered. I'm up for voting for Shinobu if no one pops out at me.

Sorry about that, I'd answered in my head but not in here xD Shuhan and Shinobu stand out more for this than Space, who struck me as more instinctually opposed to a Day 1 lynch before becoming more neutral after thinking about the set-up.