Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

[Jabberwok]

Hey that's an improvement. Let's take stock.

Presumably three of us have been primed. There's one arsonist left. We're essentially still at MYLO, but we've got a better a chance at lynching someone today.

With a mislynch, 5 are left. 3 probably get killed if the remaining arsonist ignites. Game over if we're not lucky.

If less than 3 are killed, the firefighter got a save in and there's still a chance to win. If there's no ignite tonight, we can assume that either Shuhan or LC was primed and there's another chance for a lynch tomorrow. Neither of these are especially likely, but there's a somewhat decent chance we won't lose yet.

With no lynch, the arsonist is forced to prime another target no matter what and the firefighter gets another chance to save. There's a slim chance they get it right, but a mislynch tomorrow instead leaves us needing two correct saves instead of one to have a chance. That's not a better situation.

We need to lynch someone today.

Additionally, I think we should revisit the hypofighter idea. There's a high chance (43-60%) that the firefighter is already primed. If we mislynch today, it's about a coinflip if the firefighter dies in the night, unable to report. If they correctly saved someone, we'll have a last ditch chance to lynch but no extra information. With the arsonist's primings already performed, they can't really react to a correct save. If they're scared, they prime another person and give us an extra chance to lynch.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

To clarify, hypofighter in this case means everyone listing the three players that they theoretically doused each of the past three nights.

Sidenote: Galaxy didn't mention increased oil smell. I don't know if that's a clue, a simple mistaken omission, or just flavor text. But food for thought.

[Shinobu Mahara]

Personally not surprised by Kitsunes flip, there was bound to be one found eventuslly.
Le crys, flip helps a little bit i guess not they got stumped

I know the numbers are different now, but before hypoclaiming firefighter role was deemed a bad idea, you would honestly consider this option now that its closer because it statistically sound?

[Galaxy 9000]

I've actually come down with a cold, so I can't smell anything anymore.

[Jabberwok]

@Shinobu:

I know the numbers are different now, but before hypoclaiming firefighter role was deemed a bad idea, you would honestly consider this option now that its closer because it statistically sound?

I was never that against hypofighter, personally. What makes it more important now is that there's a very good chance, if we mislynch today, that the firefighter will be one of the dead tonight. In the event that they managed to save someone, wouldn't we want some extra information going into the final day? Again, the arsonist can't react to increased pressure except for delaying the ignition, which gives us as the Forest another opportunity to lynch.

Consider it this way: late in a different game, a Doctor manages to keep another player safe and avoid a night kill. That Doctor can claim and potentially clear an extra name. In our case, since any given player is likely to die, it makes sense to give a list of past dousing targets as essentially a last will. The rest of the Forest covers for the firefighter by doing the same so the arsonist can't know how many people will survive. The main goal here isn't to preserve the firefighter since none of us really has control over that. It's to give an extra clue to the Forest members who make it to tomorrow.

Note that I don't think the firefighter should outright claim unless we're about to lynch them. It pays to keep the arsonist guessing.

[Huschel]

I'm interested in doing the hypofighter. I do have some personal investment in it. :ninja:

So let me repeat this in my own words to see if I understand. I name three people who would have been legal targets for my firefighter ability during N1, N2 and N3. Which is pretty much anybody but myself. Possibly the same player more than once. Everybody else does the same.

When the firefighter gets killed, we hopefully get a confirmed Townie out of this. Right?

I'm for it because it gives us something to do. I also agree that we lynch today because we are quite possibly at mylo. Fortunately, the arsonist can't be sure either.

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

Li'l busy on D4, but I'll be as active as possible.

100% apologise for not hammering. I was being polite by letting the day run on (some questions still being unanswered), but I did not factor in that all remaining active players had voted. 100% my fault.

My questions posed yesterday still stand, Shinobu and Space.

[Wooden_Giraffe]

@SpaceCowboy:

@Wooden: You stated that you thought Kitsune was more likely to be a mafia than Crys.
Was that only due to Crys reckless vote, or did Kitsune somehow rubbed you in the wrong way?

A bit of both I guess, although in hindsight my suspicion of Kitsune was mostly due to him advocating for a Day 1 lynch but not bothering to vote. If he truly had personal issues keeping him from participating(which his modkill proves was true), then it really wasn't much to go on. But I still felt pretty strongly the arsonists gained nothing by Crys' random hammer. Only reason for an inactive to do that was so that their active partner could stay off the wagon, but since both Jabs and Space were willing to hammer that wasn't necessary either.

Unfortunately Kitsune didn't do much interacting, and there was little talk of him in general, but I'm going to do a reread and see if I can glean anything from how others treated or regarded him.

Hypofighter still has one drawback I can think of, but only causes an issue if we come close to lynching the firefighter and it forces them to claim. The arsonist at that point will know exactly how successful they've been at priming trees, which will determine whether or not they choose to ignite. Only a 1/6 chance of that happening.

[SpaceCowboy]

@Jabberwok:

Additionally, I think we should revisit the hypofighter idea. There's a high chance (43-60%) that the firefighter is already primed. If we mislynch today, it's about a coinflip if the firefighter dies in the night, unable to report. If they correctly saved someone, we'll have a last ditch chance to lynch but no extra information. With the arsonist's primings already performed, they can't really react to a correct save. If they're scared, they prime another person and give us an extra chance to lynch.

@Jabberwok:

I was never that against hypofighter, personally. What makes it more important now is that there's a very good chance, if we mislynch today, that the firefighter will be one of the dead tonight. In the event that they managed to save someone, wouldn't we want some extra information going into the final day? Again, the arsonist can't react to increased pressure except for delaying the ignition, which gives us as the Forest another opportunity to lynch.

Consider it this way: late in a different game, a Doctor manages to keep another player safe and avoid a night kill. That Doctor can claim and potentially clear an extra name. In our case, since any given player is likely to die, it makes sense to give a list of past dousing targets as essentially a last will. The rest of the Forest covers for the firefighter by doing the same so the arsonist can't know how many people will survive. The main goal here isn't to preserve the firefighter since none of us really has control over that. It's to give an extra clue to the Forest members who make it to tomorrow.

Maybe I'm very dumb, but I still don't get this.
I don't see how any bit of info about what the Fire Fighter does helps the town. IMO it only gives information to the Arsonist about his chances of pulling through a win.

You yourself mentioned that the scare factor should make them re evaluate their chances. I think they'll be more scared if they know nothing about it.

Also, what Wooden said.

So, we currently have 3 people primed. If we assume that the arsonists didn't prime any of the more inactive/suspicious people, I reckon at least LC wasn't primed.
I also have some doubts about Shuhan getting primed on N1, and this would be very lucky for us, so let's assume it didnt happen.

So correct me if I'm wrong, if out of these 6 players we lynch one of the 2 guys that are not primed, its game over right?

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

My questions posed yesterday still stand, Shinobu and Space.

To be honest, I'm not so sure it will be as sucessful with the current set up.
I envisioned that plan with Crys dead and 2 Arsonists still alive to give us a better %.

Basically, we should still have 4 trees alive.
The plan involved one of the trees stepping forward, claiming and giving some other tree the chance to answer a couple of questions specific to the PM.

At that point we would have 7 people alive, 1 FF, 2 arsonists and 4 trees.
This would cut down the number of possible suspects to 5. The other 2 trees would also know that these 2 guys are trees because they would basically check both the question and the answers and this should put 4 trees on the same page, since tree #3 and tree #4 wouldn't be afraid to go along with the decisions of #1 and #2.

The only draw back is that depending on the reactions we got, the mafia could possibly identify the Fire Fighter.

It's a bit meta-ish I guess, but at that point, considering how the game was going and how many freebies the mafia got, I honestly was just going to purpose it for fun.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Also,

Vote: Time extention

We may not need it, but I'll just leave the vote up for a bit.

[Jabberwok]

@SpaceCowboy:

Maybe I'm very dumb, but I still don't get this.
I don't see how any bit of info about what the Fire Fighter does helps the town. IMO it only gives information to the Arsonist about his chances of pulling through a win.

You yourself mentioned that the scare factor should make them re evaluate their chances. I think they'll be more scared if they know nothing about it.

Also, what Wooden said.

So, we currently have 3 people primed. If we assume that the arsonists didn't prime any of the more inactive/suspicious people, I reckon at least LC wasn't primed.
I also have some doubts about Shuhan getting primed on N1, and this would be very lucky for us, so let's assume it didnt happen.

So correct me if I'm wrong, if out of these 6 players we lynch one of the 2 guys that are not primed, its game over right?

Since Stumps get burned too, we'll have a full account of who was primed no matter what. If fewer than three people are killed, we'll know that the firefighter managed to save our butts. If we have a list of the players that they doused each night, we can potentially draw some conclusions about which kill was canceled and thus who might be a Tree. It's more of a contingency plan than anything.

I don't know about you guys but I would probably ask the Firefighter for a list of their dousings anyway if we accidentally out them. It changes some of the uncertainty of our predicament but not too much otherwise.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Actually, here's a compromise: don't list what night you 'doused' who. We won't know the order of primings anyway so that extra bit of informationdoesn't help the Forest, just the arsonist.

If everyone names three names (repeats allowed, of course) with no additional context, we'll still find the same results while giving less of our hand away.

[SpaceCowboy]

@Jabberwok:

Since Stumps get burned too, we'll have a full account of who was primed no matter what. If fewer than three people are killed, we'll know that the firefighter managed to save our butts. (1) If we have a list of the players that they doused each night, we can potentially draw some conclusions about which kill was canceled and thus who might be a Tree. It's more of a contingency plan than anything.

I don't know about you guys but I would probably ask the Firefighter for a list of their dousings anyway if we accidentally out them. It changes some of the uncertainty of our predicament but not too much otherwise.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

(2) Actually, here's a compromise: don't list what night you 'doused' who. We won't know the order of primings anyway so that extra bit of informationdoesn't help the Forest, just the arsonist.

If everyone names three names (repeats allowed, of course) with no additional context, we'll still find the same results while giving less of our hand away.

(1) Or a mafia. Problem is, we wont know if it's an arsonist or a doused tree that survived.

What's the difference between the FireFighter dousing X, an arsonist on N3, or douse Y, a tree that ends up surviving? How do we know this? How is it useful?

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

@Space:

**(1) Or a mafia. Problem is, we wont know if it's an arsonist or a doused tree that survived.

What's the difference between the FireFighter dousing X, an arsonist on N3, or douse Y, a tree that ends up surviving? How do we know this? How is it useful?**I'm with Space on that last point. We have absolutely no way of knowing whether the person doused was an arsonist or tree. I can only see this leading to misunderstandings in the future, honestly, and don't agree with the hypofighter idea.

@Space:

Basically, we should still have 4 trees alive.
The plan involved one of the trees stepping forward, claiming and giving some other tree the chance to answer a couple of questions specific to the PM.

At that point we would have 7 people alive, 1 FF, 2 arsonists and 4 trees.
This would cut down the number of possible suspects to 5. The other 2 trees would also know that these 2 guys are trees because they would basically check both the question and the answers and this should put 4 trees on the same page, since tree #3 and tree #4 wouldn't be afraid to go along with the decisions of #1 and #2.

The only draw back is that depending on the reactions we got, the mafia could possibly identify the Fire Fighter. That wouldn't work considering we all know the PMs word-for-word, but I appreciate and love the idea.

[SpaceCowboy]

@sudk
If you are talking about the post death PM, I believe that the questions I had in mind would bypass the problem.

[Jabberwok]

@SpaceCowboy:

(1) Or a mafia. Problem is, we wont know if it's an arsonist or a doused tree that survived.

What's the difference between the FireFighter dousing X, an arsonist on N3, or douse Y, a tree that ends up surviving? How do we know this? How is it useful?

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

I'm with Space on that last point. We have absolutely no way of knowing whether the person doused was an arsonist or tree. I can only see this leading to misunderstandings in the future, honestly, and don't agree with the hypofighter idea.

Yes, there are a couple possibilities for confusion, but it's better than nothing, isn't it?

If someone gets saved, we're left with a 2 Forest-1 arsonist situation. Even if multiple people doused are left alive, we're no worse off than we were before. The two Forest know that one of the other two is scum and all they need to do is filter out the firefighter reports. It's worth noting that that situation is even more unlikely than the one I theorized and really shouldn't be too big of a problem.

The remaining Stumps, assuming they're around, can help be as logical as possible to remove unsound reasoning.

I'm still not seeing any real way the arsonist benefits from hypofighter at this point.

[SpaceCowboy]

I honestly still don't see any positives in Hypo. I guess if everyone is on board with it, I'll tag along, but I honestly feel like it will be a distraction.

We've spend a lot of time talking about it and not much else.

@SUDK By the way, for my strategy, here are the 2 questions I had in mind.

"You are a Candy citizen from the Candy Kingdom. Alongside with the other Candy Citizens you must fight defeat the evil Ice King in his quest to vanquish your home.

You have no special Candy powers."

The questions done would be:

• How many colored words are in your PM?

and after the person that would step forward answers this first question:

• Are these the words and in this order: Candy citizen, Candy citizen, Candy Kingdom, Candy Powers, Ice King.

I feel like the tree PM's might allow this to be done with mininal risk

@Huschel: You still havent said a lot today apart from the Hypo thing.
Do you find any clue in Kitsune's voting padrons or interaction?

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

@Space: But we know the PMs word-for-word form the setup link in the opening post. I don't imagine Galaxy changed the wording on them.

@Jabberwok: I'm still against the idea. I don't think it's 'better than nothing'. If the Mafia see who doesn't die when they choose to ignite, they have a huge lead on knowing who the firefighter is, assuming they don't die. And I still don't understand how we're meant to tell the alignment of any of the living doused players, other than normal deduction that we're doing anyway. Seems more risky than not.

[Jabberwok]

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

@Space: But we know the PMs word-for-word form the setup link in the opening post. I don't imagine Galaxy changed the wording on them.

@Jabberwok: I'm still against the idea. I don't think it's 'better than nothing'. If the Mafia see who doesn't die when they choose to ignite, they have a huge lead on knowing who the firefighter is, assuming they don't die. And I still don't understand how we're meant to tell the alignment of any of the living doused players, other than normal deduction that we're doing anyway. Seems more risky than not.

Agree with your point to Space. The PMs seem almost perfectly cut-and-pasted minus one or two small changes. Doesn't seem like a helpful strategy at all.

The Mafia deducing who the firefighter is, if they survive, is pretty inconsequential. It would still take two nights for them to kill a remaining member, giving the Forest two opportunities to Lynch. And if the Mafia deduced the firefighter, the remaining Tree could too. Really, the firefighter could just claim at that point. There's really no benefit to the Mafia in that respect.

Deduction is always more productive when there's more information out there. If two or more of the firefighter's dousees survive, the hypofighter doesn't add much and it can basically be ignored. That's not that likely though. And even if it does happen, the Forest doesn't lose anything by going through the motions.

[SpaceCowboy]

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

@Space: But we know the PMs word-for-word form the setup link in the opening post. I don't imagine Galaxy changed the wording on them.

@Jabberwok: I'm still against the idea. I don't think it's 'better than nothing'. If the Mafia see who doesn't die when they choose to ignite, they have a huge lead on knowing who the firefighter is, assuming they don't die. And I still don't understand how we're meant to tell the alignment of any of the living doused players, other than normal deduction that we're doing anyway. Seems more risky than not.

I completely forgot that.

Picard Facepalm

[Jabberwok]

Since we've spent most of the Day discussing this and not really who to lynch…

Vote: Time Extension

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

I still don't like the idea of risking the firefighter, but that sounds reasonable enoug; I hadn't considered the remaining players, and how much less important the Firefighter was right now. I'm in on the idea. I'd like to hear from one of the other three players on that.

Vote: Day Extension

[Shinobu Mahara]

Currently at uni, but Imma do this just in case:

​Vote: Day Extension

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

Shinobu, can you please answer my question from yesterday?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

When you get back, obviously.

[Shinobu Mahara]

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

Shinobu, can you please answer my question from yesterday? When you get back, obviously.

Who do you think we should vote for today, if anybody? Do you have any suspects?

Im assuming that you mean this question. In which case at the current time I am more swaying towards Huschel flip. However that goes without saying that I really dont know who to flip at this stage.
I've essentially been not voting towards a lynch this entire game. So being able to pull a target out of thin air is a little hard pressed. But if I had to go with my gut..
I could be completely wrong, but its not exactly like there is a way to know.

@Huschel:

I'm interested in doing the hypofighter. I do have some personal investment in it. :ninja:

Care to explain this further? Or is this an attempt to rat out the one actually involved in firefighting?

It is only because of this earlier post that i even suspect anything, without it, id be clueless as to who to suspect.
(No hate please)

As much as I can understand people going towards hypoclaiming firefighter, considering how it was explained to me before, with great difficulty.
Statistically sound, multiple day extensions, little to no worthwhile communication. Possibly throw the firefighter to the wolves? Mmm doesnt sit pretty with me, but I'd guess if all agreed to do so, i'd tag along.
But I see no reason to discuss it, unless we will actually take that path of action.

Why do i feel like im only going to be questioned more for trying to answer something.. Anyway those are my thoughts.

[Wooden_Giraffe]

Sorry guys, felt like death yesterday and immediately went to bed once I got home. I should be able to come on and evaluate things tonight. I think we have enough but I’ll add to it anyway.

Vote Time Extension

[Jabberwok]

Alright, time should be safely extended and it seems like pretty much everyone is on-board with the hypofighter.

Here's mine, in alphabetical order: Huschel, Shuhan, Wooden

I'm curious, has anyone gleaned anything from Kitsune's earlier statements that might help us suss out the remaining arsonist? I haven't had the opportunity to really go over it yet.

[SpaceCowboy]

Ok, better than staying idle

Wooden, Jabber, Jabber
@Kitsune:

Hey guys sorry for the late arrival. Im here just busy as fuck today. I will be around later this afternoon or some time tomorrow.

Forgive me! And dont lynch me!

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

I will be much more available tomorrow so Id also like to

Vote: Day Extend

@Kitsune:

Okay, read through everything. Sorry for the late arrival.

I agree that we should be focused on lynching. It doesn't make sense not to because with nine players our firefighter is at her least effective and I feel like in this setup, we need to act quickly. The fewer night phases we give the arsonists, the better, right?

I don't really have many new observations to offer at this point, so let's get down to scumhunting.

Huschel: You've probably taken the most visible stance amongst the forest. Do you worry this might make you a target for burnering?

Jabberwok: From what I can gather, Shuhan, Shinobu, and Space have all advocated not lynching at some point. Do you think our arsonists are among these three or would that be too obvious?

I'll be back in a bit.

@Kitsune:

Sorry, I meant to make it in before the hammer dropped but I overslept.

My main issue with yesterday was why on earth we wound up wifh four wagons and I think Im going to be focusing my efforts when I get online on those who started them. Thats utterly ridiculpus especially so late in the game.

That said, I also suspect at least one, if not both, of our arsonists stayed off of the Shinobu wagon. Im currently very suspicious of Shinobu and Space for those reasons.

Hopefully I can inpit more soon and Shuhan and le crys can join in as well. Sorry for the inactivity.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Sorry on phone. Suspicoous of Shinobi and Space for the multiple wagons. I am incapable of typing.

@Kitsune:

Yeah, that's fair. I haven't been able to give this as much attention as I'd like, and in the end, if we feel like we need to lynch somebody for being inactive, I think I'd be a good candidate. I obviously think we should focus on lynching the arsonists, but if it clears my name in the end, it's probably worth letting it happen.

That said, le crystal's inactivity is concerning. But I think there are bigger fish to fry.

Vote Lynch: Shuhan

My reasoning is that I don't buy that "I advocated for no lynch just to gauge reactions" stuff for a second. I'm convinced that one of Shinobu, Space, or Shuhan is an arsonist and right now I'm leaning Shuhan because of his inactivity in Day 1 and sudden gungho attitude shift in Day 2.

Not a lot to go by, but whatever.

The only thing that caught my attention was him not hammering Shinobu because he was asleep.

Mr. STump @Shuhan: What do you think of our current situation?

[Shinobu Mahara]

Okie, here goes.
Huschel, Shuhan, SUDK
Not sure how well this will turn out but yeah

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

Shinobu, Huschel, Jabberwok

[SpaceCowboy]

@Sudk and Shinobu: What are your plans for the rest of the day?

We'll obviously need to pull a lynch. Would you rather vote for someone you feel might be primed not to give the victory to the mafia in caseof myslynch, or to someone you think may be mafia with lower chances of being primed.

Any targets?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

I'll just push this idea forward because I wont stick around for long:
I purpose lynching Jabber, Woody or Huschel. Maybe SUDK as well, but I'll need to thin about him better.

We are 6 people right now and we should assume we have 3 guys primed.

If we lynch someone that isn't primed, we risk a detonation and 3 people get killed + 1 lynched = 2 players alive.

Going by the same order of ideas that was pushed by Shinobu on D2, which I believe we all can agree on, the mafia would less likely target inactives and suspicious people.

I think this clears both Shinobu and me on N1, probably Shuhan and LC as well.
N2 they surely didn't target Shuhan or LC. Maybe they also say Shinobu's a bit passive and decided to go for someone more active.
D3 was the LC Catastrophe, so I'm having a hard time reading who they could have possibly targetted.

I feel like these 3 individuals have a bigger chance of being primed and will still be able to contribute to the conversation.

--- Update From New Post Merge ---

Ok, I'm sleepy so I'll do this for now.

Vote Lynch: Huschel

[Galaxy 9000]

With 6 players standing tall, it takes 4 to lynch. Huschel (1): SpaceCowboy
Not Voting (5): SUDK, Jabberwok, Huschel, Shinobu Mahara, Wooden_Giraffe About 19.5 hours remain.

[Jabberwok]

@SpaceCowboy:

-Aiming for a primed player-

There's definitely a certain logic to this, but I think it also doesn't really move us that forward. Suppose we correctly pick a Tree that's been primed, whom we've chosen because the consensus believes that they're not very scummy. We force the arsonist to spend another night priming, giving the Forest another lynch tomorrow. One fewer suspect is great and all, but if the lynched player wasn't much of a suspect to begin with, the list isn't narrowed that much. Plus, it causes lower odds for the firefighter to be effective since they'd have correctly douse two people instead of one (unless we keep picking primed players to lynch for the rest of the game, which would require a heap of luck).

I think we should try to hit a balance between a clean and scummy lynch: someone who people have some suspicions of, but isn't at the top of their list. Clean enough to be primed, but not so clean as to be extremely likely to be a Tree. Personally I'd pick SUDK or Huschel.

[SpaceCowboy]

^^

That's the reason why I went to Huschel.

Between you, Woody and him, I have it like this:
Jabber - More townie vibes, also biggest chance of being primed.
Woody- Less townie vibes, also less chance of being primed.
Husch - In the middle on both.

I'll tryto extend this logic when I wake up, but I really need some sleep.

Also, I'll need to consider SUDK. Townie vibes she's at a similar level as Husch, but his activity level makes me think ththat the mafia sees in Husch a best prime target.

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

I'd obviously rather go for a Mafia, but I'm not adverse to going after someone we think is primed if we have that information somehow. How do you think we'd figure it out, Space?

I'm still not sure about Shinobu not being primed N1. If I were Mafia, I'd have primed him on the off chance his soft claim wasn't vanilla town like most think. I believe that even if not on N1, Shinobu is primed. This means I think he's not Mafia-aligned, too.

Other than that, I can agree with them not going after inactive players. I'd say Wooden and I are in that period between active and inactive that makes it hard to determine whether we've been primed. Huschel, Jabberwok and Space have been the most active and proactive about things, so I expect that at least one of them as primed as well.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

I'm a 'he', Space.

[SpaceCowboy]

Just this last reply to SUDK.

I feel like I wasnt primed on N1 because I was on that list and had a vote on me by Woody, as well as the 4th wagon made it seem like I would be a person to be hunted during D2.
It's possible that I was targetted on N2 or 3. So if anyone wants to consider this go ahead.

[Wooden_Giraffe]

In no particular order…..
Huschel, Huschel, and Jabberwok

Time to finally do that reread and see if I can find some Kitsune bits.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Here's what I got, every reference to Kitsune, as well as Kitsune posts.

#68 - Huschel: Lynch votes Kitsune due to activity, gives no specific reason why him over Space(who had been equally inactive up til that point).
#69 - Space: Asks Jabs and myself how we'd decide a D1 lynch if Kitsune showed up(he was the only one not to post at this point).
#73 - Kitsune: Apologizes for being late and votes to extend the day.
#75 - SUDK: Questions whether Huschel's vote on Kitsune is genuine and asked why a pressure vote was more important than a suspicion vote.
#78 - Kitsune: Agrees with lynching immediately. Asks Huschel if he's worried about being primed due to his visible stance. Asks Jabs if he thinks the arsonists are among the Day 1 no-lynch party(Shuhan, Space and Shinobu).
#80 - Jabs: Answers Kitsune. Speculates that the arsonists have one member in each party(lynch and no-lynch). However, he assumes the arsonists don't currently know who each other are and are likely both against it.
#81 - Huschel: Answers Kitsune. Says he isn't worried and states(jokingly?) that he isn't the firefighter. Unvotes Kitsune.
#87 - Huschel: Asks Kitsune, along with Crys and myself, to give more input.
#93 - Kitsune: Disagrees with Jabs saying that the arsonists will split between the two parties or both advocate no lynching(this part is true as Kitsune was pro-lynch). Says he has no suspects. Disagrees with hypofighting.
#106 - Wooden: Agrees with Kitsune's post(#93).
#119 - Jabs: Revises his thinking to be more in line with Kitsunes.
#124 - Wooden: Accuses Space of ignoring Kitsune's inactivity in favor of Crys', states Kitsune is more suspicious(this was after I lynch voted Space for the 4th wagon).
#138 - Jabs: Asks Kitsune what his reads were from the previous day.
#145 - Kitsune: Says he would have hammered Shinobu but overslept. Didn't like that 4 wagons were active so late in the day. Speculates 1 or both arsonists stayed off the wagon. Suspects Space and Shinobu for those reasons. Again apologizes for inactivity.
#149 - Wooden: Harps on Kitsune for favoring a Day 1 lynch and not following through.
#150 - Space: Responds to Kitsune's suspicions. Defends himself by saying he was purposefully sticking around on Day 1 to change vote if needed.
#160 - Kitsune: Answers my post(#149). Says he would understand if he got lynched for inactivity. Claims Crys' inactivity is concerning but that there are bigger fish to fry. Lynch votes Shuhan. Reasons for being change from no-lynch to pro-lynch attitude.
#195 - Space: States his biggest concern at the moment is the inactivity of Crys and Kitsune.
#212 - Space: Bemoans Kitsune, as well as Shinobu and SUDK not being around to potentially vote for or switch to voting Crys.
#234 - Wooden: I post that Kitsune is running into actual personal issues keeping him from the game.
#239 - Wooden: In response to SUDK asking about my vote on Crys, I state I'd prefer Kitsune as I think he's more likely mafia.
#241 - Jabs: States he's fine with voting Kitsune, but doesn't think he's any scummier than Crys.
#242 - SUDK: Says he's more willing to vote Kitsune, but won't be around to vote at the end of the day and neglects to put down a vote before leaving.
#243 - Space: Doesn't blatantly say it but indicates a Kitsune lynch would have been fine, but was too late to pursue. Insists on Crys.
#244 - Wooden: Bemoans that a lynch will only be achieved if SUDK, Shinobu or Kitsune show up.

So I think that's every post that mentions Kitsune prior to him being modkilled. Some things that stick out to me.
-I am reminded that I was suspicious of Space for singling out Crys when I felt Kitsune was worse considering his lynch stance.
-As Space mentioned Kitsune failed to hammer Shinobu, since he had stated he was in favor of lynching and suspicious of no-lynchers, him voting for Shinobu should have been an easy move to lynch a tree. Though, it's not like his inactivity was a one time thing. It was consistent throughout and likely was in no way influenced by his being mafia.
-That being said, I noticed one BIG thing. Not one of these posts was by Shinobu, I didn't see anywhere that he referenced Kitsune. Kitsune mentions his suspicions of him a couple times, but was normally as a part of the no-lynch party and not something he did individually.

This makes my primary suspects Shinobu and then Space. However, if we want to go the 'possibly primed' route, Shinobu is the least likely primed of those of us remaining in my opinion. I doubt Space was primed N1, but the following nights are more likely. I think he'd be the better balance pick.

Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara

[Huschel]

Sorry guys, life has been…life. I saw the day extension happen and now I can finally get back into this. Rereading everything now.

--- Update From New Post Merge ---

Alphabetical Hypofighter: Space, Wooden, Wooden
–-

Now this will mostly be tidbits I got from rereading. Putting them out there so others can come to their own conclusions. Some has been brought up already, specifically by Wooden just above.

@Kitsune:

I know it's meta but I do feel it's more probable the arsonists could be independently advocating a lynch in a bid to appear town.

This can go either way. It's very WIFOM. It was obviously true for KI himself.

@Wooden:

On the other hand, I find mafia more willing to strongly defend someone they know to be town. So if people are finding Huschel scummy because of this, then it's likely that Shinobu is in fact innocent.

This can still apply to me but also to SpaceCowboy who really didn't want to lynch Shuhan but in the end relented.

@Shinobu:

Shinobu: If anything, my opinion is that it was quite probable that only one mafia had voted against me, and the other never got the chance to come back to vote, otherwise it my lynch surely would have happened.

Well, at least parts of that is true. Kitsune didn't vote for him.

–-

Then there's SUDK who is consistently agreeing (or disagreeing) with other people's stances but rarely comes up with his own ideas. On the other hand, he is very open about that. It seems pretty bold for an arsonist to be actively playing scummily.

---

Wooden already mentioned it but here are the people who stated their willingness to lynch Kitsune over crys yesterday.

Wooden (#239), Huschel (#240), SUDK (#242). Jabber and Space don't say they'd prefer a KI lynch but that they wouldn't be opposed (#241 and #243). Which is everybody except for Shinobu. Those posts were made in the span of ~12 hours but Shinobu also didn't post at that time at all.

---

For me it's between SpaceCowboy and Shinobu Mahara. I think considering who has been primed by the arsonists is valid but should not take priority over who you think is scum. Jabber mentioned above that it's not really that fruitful. Potential priming should be a tie-breaker.

Wooden's observation that Shinobu never interacted with Kitsune is very interesting.

@Wooden:

This makes my primary suspects Shinobu and then Space. However, if we want to go the 'possibly primed' route, Shinobu is the least likely primed of those of us remaining in my opinion. I doubt Space was primed N1, but the following nights are more likely. I think he'd be the better balance pick.

Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara

]Do you want to go the 'possibly primed' route? Cause you're saying Shinobu is probably not primed but then you vote for him. I feel like you're saying that you'd vote Space if you wanted to consider primings but I'm not sure.

@Jabberwok:

It'd also be nice to avoid comments like, "If he didn't want to get lynched, he shouldn't have acted so scummy!" Those are useless statements that avoid blame and don't patch things up at all.
If you're instrumental in someone's mislynch, be mature and apologize so we can keep trying to win this thing.

… My bad.

--- Update From New Post Merge ---

Six hours are left, so I guess...

Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

I've been thinking it over, and I'm torn.

On the one hand, I concede that Shinobu's not interacting with Kitsune is suspicious, and that his soft claim of town is odd and poorly thought out (especially with the timing).
On the other hand, he's also the person I most suspect to be the Firefighter (about 75% sure). Jabber's mention that the Firefighter is less important now than in the early game (paraphrased, correct me if I'm wrong) has made me think that losing him wouldn't be the biggest loss.

I don't want to continue a wagon against a person I think is town, but at this point he's also dead weight at a time where we really can't afford dead weight.
I'm willing to vote when I'm going to bed.

[Huschel]

I'm willing to wait and see if Shinobu claims firefighter.

Who would you lynch instead, SUDK?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

(I mean, I guess I'm not willing because I already voted but I hope you guys are)

[Wooden_Giraffe]

@Huschel:

Do you want to go the 'possibly primed' route? Cause you're saying Shinobu is probably not primed but then you vote for him. I feel like you're saying that you'd vote Space if you wanted to consider primings but I'm not sure.

Primings should at least be a factor at this point, but as you said, more of a tiebreaker. I am much more suspicious of Shinobu's actions, or lack thereof. Even if we do lynch an unprimed, after seeing all the hypofighters I wouldn't be surprised if the arsonist elected to spend another day priming, since they're the only one remaining.

@SpaceCowboy:

Woody- Less townie vibes, also less chance of being primed.

Just noticed this, Space, while I get that you don't give heavy townie vibes from me. There has been almost no pressure on me the entire game, what makes you think that I'm unlikely to be primed?

Unofficial vote count.

With 6 players standing tall, it takes 4 to lynch. Huschel (1): SpaceCowboy
Shinobu Mahara (2): Wooden_Giraffe, Huschel
Not Voting (3): SUDK, Jabberwok, Shinobu Mahara 6ish hours left i think

[SpaceCowboy]

Im not the biggest fan of that vote.

He doest strike me ad particukary scummy and i also dont think he has been primed. Need 30 mins to review some stuff

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

My biggest problem with the Shinobu - Kitsune not talking about each other thing is that the former as been majorly passive and only talking when he gets directly accused or asked about something, while Kitsune himself was majorly afk.

With this being said, by this point I would like to see a claim from him.

@Wooden_Giraffe:

Just noticed this, Space, while I get that you don't give heavy townie vibes from me. There has been almost no pressure on me the entire game, what makes you think that I'm unlikely to be primed?

Unlikely compared to Huschel and Jabber.
I feel like both of them have been more incisive.

You tend to see how things play out and make accusations based on stuff you pick up during a conversation.

They tend to be more inquisitive and agressive. I just feel like both of them would be more bothersome from a mafia point of view.

[Huschel]

With a confirmed protective role, I can see the arsonsists not going for the biggest targets though. Because they are cowards. You heard me arsonist. Feel free to defend yourself.

[SomebodyUDon'tKnow]

@Huschel: After Shinobu, I'd probably go Space, then yourself. I've explained my stance on Space. I suspect you (albeit slightly) for reasons that right now make sense to me, so on D4 I'll probably actually put together a post detailing what little has set me off; this because it's 3am.

Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara

[SpaceCowboy]

That's L-1 then.

I'll be around. I would prefer not hammering it because I'm agaisnt the lynch, but if Jabber doesn't show up (or SHinobu self hammers for some reason) I'll end it.

I think Shinobu is pasrt of the Forest and I don't believe he was primed. Let's see how it goes.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Can we get a timer? Are there 2 hours and 5 minutes remaining?

[Galaxy 9000]

About 3 hours and 30 minutes remain.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

[Jabberwok]

Yo, I'm here to hammer in an hour or so.

I'm not sold on the Shinobu lynch based on the number of people willing to do it, but at this point we don't have a lot of other options and he's admittedly scummy. His fairly passive behavior makes me think he might be scum, but it could also just be based on confusion and a natural playstyle. And Kitsune narrowing his targets to Shinobu and Space leaves me guessing on whether Kitsune was trying to pick off easier targets or half-bus his ally to gain credibility. I lean towards the former since he originally tried to float the idea that both arsonists were among our S-named comrades. So I think I'm expecting Shinobu to flip Tree.

What will be most telling for me is whether the arsonist chooses to ignite or not. Shinobu might not have been primed because he seemed scummy, or maybe he was primed precisely because he seemed like a low priority for dousing. It should give some insight into the mindset of our remaining arsonist.

[SpaceCowboy]

Feel free to hammer.

I'll be around anyway just for precaution.

[Jabberwok]

Cross your fingers, everyone. Hope to see at least half of you in the morning.

Vote Lynch: Shinobu

[Huschel]

That would be nice.

[Galaxy 9000]

Lynch has been achieved.

Fed up with the further inaction, the trees began to rapidly swing their branches at Shinobu. They swung and they swung, until…

! They realized that he wasn't a tree…...........................................
!
! Honestly, do you want me to be able to build anything at all?
! Shinobu was a Firefighter. He won when all threats to the Forest were eliminated.

It is now Night 4. You have 24 hours to send in any night actions.

[BellisarioFaith]

Day 5 dawns.

Disheartened that they'd been barking up the wrong tree by pursuing Shinobu, and that they had killed their Firefighter rather than finding the root of the evil in their forest, the remaining Trees slept restlessly during Night 4, hoping this wasn't the end for them and that they wood have the chance to branch out again tomorrow.

! During the Night, one lone figure stirred, delighted with the way things had gone that Day, and made his move. "I’ve had it with all these birches! It’s time they got put in their place," he said (actual quote lifted from the Arsonist thread), and struck a match. It was time to heat things up in this forest. An explosion of bright orange flame lit up the morning sky.
! That morning, as Day 5 began, a few Trees woke to realize a disturbing fact: "OH HOLY SHIT I'M ON FIRE!" These were the cries that came from SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy, and Jabberwok, as the flames grew hotter and hotter and eventually extinguished their screams. All three of them were Trees, and part of the Forest. They would have won when only Forest-aligned players were left alive. Sadly, they were too burnt to a crisp to leave even so much as a Tree Stump behind.
! Nearby, Wooden_Giraffe, the remaining Arsonist, cackled gleefully as he watched them burn. He decided to celebrate his large, impromptu bonfire with an equally impromptu song:
! "Let it burn, let it burn
Can't hold it back anymore
Let it burn, let it burn
Turn away and prime the trees
I don't care who they’re going to lynch
Let the inferno rage on
These woods always bothered me anyways." (Also lifted directly from the Arsonists' thread)
! Huschel and Shuhan could only watch in horror at the deaths of their friends. With Shu as a mere Tree Stump, and Husch as the only full-fledged Tree left, they no longer had the power to fight back against the Arsonists' tyranny, and could do nothing but watch as a grinning Wooden approached them with a can of gasoline and another match…
! Meanwhile, Galaxy and I watched this apathetically. We looked at each other, shrugged, and said "Guess it's the shopping mall then." Under our shared alias of Forest Graves, we began the plans and construction for the new Crispwood Mall. (Opening next year!)

---

Arsonists win. Congrats to Kitsune and Wooden.

! Arsonists Thread: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/kuCWid8fkjX8
Graveyard Thread: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/HLYvMVaDyBZh
! Thanks for playing, everybody!

[SpaceCowboy]

"So in Shinobu’s hypofighter claim he went after the following in no particular order.
Huschel
Shuhan
SUDK

Obviously the only concern here is SUDK, never primed the other two. So do I have two or three primed?

| Oh? Did you think that was it? Think you so lowly of Wooden’s logical capabilities? How insulting. |
| You see Shuhan was only alive for night 1, which means he most certainly was targeted then. And since my target night 1 was SUDK, that means he must be primed! Furthermore since Space and Jabberwok were never doused, they must also certainly be primed as well! Meaning that all three of my targets have been primed!" |

Annnnnnnd this is why hypo claiming was dumb.

GG woody and Kitsu. Why SUDK on N1 though?