After Pokemon already plunged headfirst into the figurine market lately it was only a matter of time before they took on the waifu gambling gacha market as well.
Pokemon Ultra S&M - Let's Minecraft Pikachu and Eevee Quest
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playing UltraSun How the hell can I catch a Fletchling, Magma, Cubone, a fucking Kangaskhan, and a fucking SHINY Sandalit before I can catch a female Sandalit!?
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Find a male Mon with attract and put him on the lead.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Find a male Mon with attract and put him on the lead.
And by attract I mean cute charm.
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Does that seriously work?
. . . . and what the fuck has cute charm anyway?
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Does that seriously work?
. . . . and what the fuck has cute charm anyway?
Sylveon is an easy one, being that you get an Eevee egg at the Nursery and Pokémon Refresh is broken.
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Does that seriously work?
. . . . and what the fuck has cute charm anyway?
It does! 66% chance of encountering opposite gender. There's several abilities and items that can affect natures and genders and stuff.
Cute charm critters include Clefairy, Jigglypuff, Skitty, Lopunny, Mincinno, (and their evolution) and Sylveon.
Milotic and Stufful have it as hidden ability but those are harder to get.
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Well that explains why I haven't gotten a damn female, I've been using my Lycanroc Boudicca instead.
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Well that explains why I haven't gotten a damn female, I've been using my Lycanroc Boudicca instead.
Well that and the lizards have a stupid low chance of spawning a girl. Females are only 10%, like vespiqueen, so they're going to be rare. You'd think that would mean "1 in 10" but since its a fresh chance every time instead of cumulative, the percentages don't actually work out that way, its probably closer to 1 in 25.
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Salandit has the same chance of being female as the starters, which is 1/8 (12.5%). Those are the exact odds every encounter. It's not actually closer to 1/25 or anything else because that's not how probability works? That's like saying "if you flip a coin, the odds of heads is in theory 50%, but since it's not cumulative it's actually more like 25%." Like what? If you get unlucky, you get unlucky. That doesn't change the fact that each time you have the exact same odds, and over enough encounters, the number of females compared to the number of males will literally end up around 1 in 8.
But yeah that's why I'm so damn proud of my shiny Salazzle with perfect IVs (0 Attack, 31 everything else). People would think it's hacked for sure.
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Die rolls are different than coin flips.
Yes, over ENOUGH encounters it will eventually even out to reflect the statistical odds. But actual human experience and pure luck along the way in a short term the odds are a little bit different, for better or worse.
You poll 10 people and the different between 4/10 and 6/10 is one person. Just one occurrence throws off the number by 20%. You poll 100 people and the difference between 41/100 and 59/100 and suddenly that same random doesn't affect it much at all, and you poll 100,000, one person isn't going to change the statistics at all. Long term over a large number statistics of chance work out perfectly.
On the big number the statistics are pretty exact, but short term, the way humans will actually experience it, those results can skew wildly. (Not even factoring in feelings of frustration, boredom, wait time, etc. and how those affect the FEEL of it.)The question isn't "If I flip the coin what are the odds it will land on heads." That'll always be 50/50.
The question is "If I flip the coin twice, what are the odds it will land on heads at least once." And those odds are 75%.
Then three times it's 87.5. Four times it's 93.75%, etc. By the fifth or sixth it gets up there to 99%, near guaranteed.Even a 50/50 chance is often going to take 3 or 4 attempts before you get both results.
And that math is a bit lower when you're not doing 50/50 odds. . In theory a 10% you usually get it by 10 attempts, and pure RNG means sometimes you'll get it by attempt 2 or 3, but that also means you're going to miss that sometimes too, and it doesn't start hitting extreme likelihood/near guarantee until closer to 20, give or take.
I've played enough looters to know that when you've got a dice roll on the loots, it doesn't matter if things have 50% odds or 5%, pure random luck is going to throw the things off a lot in the short term, especially when things dip significantly below 50% chance. (But even the 50/50 chance will generally take 3 or 4 tries before you get both results.)
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Yes what you're describing is called bad luck. Your odds, both theoretical and in practice, will always be 1 in 8. The odds of going 8 encounters without a female are only around 35%. If you go 16 encounters, it's under 12%. A quick calculation shows that it would take 5.191 encounters (if fractional encounters were possible) before your odds of a female were above 50%. So "realistically" you would bet on finding a female by the 6th time. Not the 25th.
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And yet here 2 encounters after I put a male in the first spot I got a female Sandalit. Yay, it worked!
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1 of 8 and 1000 of 8000 have the same odds, as long as you don't disturb the pool after each pull, or do something else. What exactly does "changing one" means in any draw experiment? The next experiment changes to a 2/6 or a 1/7 vs a 1001/7999 or a 1000/7999, no relation to the last one.
3DS FC: 0516-7666-3837
SW-4128-8032-0729
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1 of 8 and 1000 of 8000 have the same odds, as long as you don't disturb the pool after each pull, or do something else. What exactly does "changing one" means in any draw experiment? The next experiment changes to a 2/6 or a 1/7 vs a 1001/7999 or a 1000/7999, no relation to the last one.
Because when you have a low enough sample pool, one random off result can change the results from from 50% to either 40% or 60%, which is a huge variance in findings. When its 1 off result out of 1000, it only changes the result a fraction of a percent, findings aren't affected by random chance/luck. It doesn't affect the overall data and experience long term.
We KNOW what the actual percentage is so that's not actually an issue, we're not trying to get that data point, we don't need to test it a thousand times to get 1 in 8 as an answer..But I'm not talking about the odds changing. I'm talking about the actual human experience along the way. How long until you personally are near guaranteed to do it. Not likelihood, near guarantee, and those are different things..
It's how you get people hatching entire boxes of sandalits without a single female, while others get one on their first try. Luck IS a factor short term, and the low odds things are… low odds. Same reason people can go multiple games and hundreds of hours without seeing a single shiny despite going against thousands of monsters. The math is on their side to do it at least once, and yet....
The numbers will weigh the same and after enough samples it'll work out to be exactly 1 in 8, but in actual practice it almost never works out that way on a small scale. Spend any time in a looter and the things with low odds will defy expectations constantly both good and bad.
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The problem is that nothing you're saying is meaningful. Luck is always a thing. Even if you have 99.9% odds, someone is going to get unlucky. If that person has a brain, they'll say "damn I got really unlucky." If they don't, they might say "these odds aren't real in practice because it wasn't true for me." All we can discuss is the actual probability. Some people will get unlucky and take longer, while just as many people will get lucky and "beat the odds."
This statement you made:
You'd think that would mean "1 in 10" but since its a fresh chance every time instead of cumulative, the percentages don't actually work out that way, its probably closer to 1 in 25.
Is objectively incorrect no matter how you look at it, and a fundamental misunderstanding of probability/statistics. It's actually probably going to happen within 8 tries. Overwhelmingly so. No, it's not guaranteed! Which is obvious because they are just odds, not a promise! But it'll happen within 8 encounters way, way more often than not. And again, for every person who takes 25+ tries, you will also have a person who found 3 females in their first 10. Telling someone they'll surely do worse than the odds is quite ignorant.
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Who knew the can of worms I apparently opened would turn into a math seminar?
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The 18 arceus like that look like the mass produced evas.
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Is that what they are? My brain hurts.
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I probably should have included the video.
The uncolored white mons on the sides are the concept critters from the leaked beta version. Ridiculous completionism. There's also a Pikachu dressed as Waldo.
The view of the finished product starts at 1:32:12
This is also apparently the second time he's done this piece. And he plans to do it AGAIN after the new game hits.
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That guy has way too much free time.
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What's impressive to me is that he even bothered to include all the different Arbok patterns.
Nobody pays attention to Arbok patterns.FC(3DS) - 2724-4238-5489 (LZTan)
FC(Switch) - SW-3434-4042-7728 (Jin)
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https://d111vui60acwyt.cloudfront.net/product_photos/63059691/file_620d683a59_original.jpg
I actually met the guy that made this and bought a copy of this signed by him at Anime NYC this past year. His table was conveniently not that far from Steve Yurko's, which were the only two artist i bought from at that con.
