Don't care about 49ers. To my death bed I will always think they were stupid for John Harbaugh firing.
NFL Season 2014
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I just had flashbacks of 49er teams that were coached by Mike Singletary.
I'm pretty sure it was like:
Baalke: "So, will you do everything i say, Fangio?"
Fangio: "Hell no"
Jed York: "Next…"
Baalke: "Will you, Tomsula?"
Tomsula: "Yeah, i mean, i suppose"
York: "Hired!"After miserable years, we had 3 great -and one mediocre- seasons. Now we're heading to the miserable years again.
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York is a terrible owner
It speaks alot when I say I'll take Jerry Jones over him.
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Well, I'm sure that a former defensive line coach (lol that he's never even been a coordinator) will do a splendid job with Colin Sackorpick. What could possibly go wrong?
If the 49ers are going to make hires like that, they should at least make it entertaining. Go with Brady Hoke.
Don't care about 49ers. To my death bed I will always think they were stupid for John Harbaugh firing.
John's the one coaching the Ravens.
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So how is a late hit on a defensive player after a sack not after the play?
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So how is a late hit on a defensive player after a sack not after the play?
![](http://www.wrestlecrap.com/induction files/manmountainrock/mmrwwfgeetar.jpg)
I don't know dude.
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If Green Bay loses this, it's entirely because of bad clock management.
Who the hell runs the ball like that with four minutes to go and up by twelve? They didn't even try for a first down.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Great. Just great. McCarthy had this game won until that absolutely moronic series.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
One of the most disappointing games I've ever seen.
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Packers blew it. Big time.
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Packers blew it. Big time.
Again, they had that game won until they just gave the ball back to the Seahawks with plenty of time.
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Incredible, how you lose a game where you had four interceptions and a fumble recovered? I'll be rooting for AFC team in the SB… maybe...
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The packers choked in crunch time, plain and simple. And I absolutely LOVE IT.
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Sigh Welp, looks like we're getting the Super Bowl matchup I wanted the least.
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Yeah, this is definitely a "Just for the commercials" Super Bowl here though I'll have to remember to mute it every time the game comes on.
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Huhuhuhuhuhuhuhuuh dem Packers
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Wasn't home for the NFC game, but it sounded hectic as hell. I'd hate to be a fan of an NFL team that lost in OT. Momentum can be either maintained or changed by a coin flip.
This isn't saying much, but the Super Bowl HAS to be better than last year
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Pats beat the Colts 45-7. Ohohohoho.
Everyone in New England wants Brady to get one more Super Bowl before his retirement. Which isn't that far away, let's be honest.
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Huhuhuhuhuhuhuhuuh dem Packers
They lasted longer than the Cowboys so it was still a good season overall.
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No idea who to root for this time. I went against the Hawks last year, but if anybody can make me back Seattle it's Brady/Belichik.
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The packers choked in crunch time, plain and simple. And I absolutely LOVE IT.
Guess they couldn't…....."pack" it
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@Steven:
No idea who to root for this time. I went against the Hawks last year, but if anybody can make me back Seattle it's Brady/Belichik.
And piffle to you too, good sir.
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welp going for Seattle again.
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They lasted longer than the Cowboys so it was still a good season overall.
oh so that's how packers judge how good their seasons are? No wonder they gave up after beating dallas
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Best two teams in football go add it.
Tom Brady is a better quarterback so he'll do better than Peyton, plus Tom getting a 4th ring would be awesome!!
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Best two teams in football go add it.
Tom Brady is a better quarterback so he'll do better than Peyton
Hope you don't choke on crow pie if the Seahawks wind up blowing out the Patriots and making Gisele Bundchen salty in the process.
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I won't.
While I really want Tom to win another ring, it won't be the worst if Russel gets his second.
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The Patriots win was amazing and Brady but am rooting for The Seahawks .
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Whelp, I'm already ready for next season. Hopefully they at least make it a good close game because I couldn't care less who wins this one.
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oh so that's how packers judge how good their seasons are? No wonder they gave up after beating dallas
No way. Of course, in the grand scheme of things a conference championship game appearance is still a pretty good season by most standards. But the fact of the matter is that they tightened up and blew a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Believe me, outside of the division there's nowhere the Packers would rather win a big game right now than Seattle with all the recent history there, and they had every opportunity. This one stings.
They definitely didn't give up after Dallas, though. They gave Seattle more than they wanted. They were the better team for 3 and a half quarters and started acting like the game was over.
@Steven:
No idea who to root for this time. I went against the Hawks last year, but if anybody can make me back Seattle it's Brady/Belichik.
Couldn't have said it better, lol.
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Ugh can't stand either team. I'll just see myself onto the "Hope the commercials are good" wagon.
Also the Packers coach is an idiot for kicking so many field goals at the beginning of the game. Such a terrible move.
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Hindsight is always 20/20. If the Seahawks miss the 2 point conversion or lose in overtime, those field goals are brilliant because they're the difference in the game. When 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line turns into 4th and goal from the 1 yard line, it's hard to be confident in going for it.
It really does seem like the two most hated teams in football found their way to the Super Bowl, though. It's hard to find anyone outside of the Boston and Seattle areas that has much interest. The NFL is not having a very good year.
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Hindsight is always 20/20. If the Seahawks miss the 2 point conversion or lose in overtime, those field goals are brilliant because they're the difference in the game. When 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line turns into 4th and goal from the 1 yard line, it's hard to be confident in going for it.
It really does seem like the two most hated teams in football found their way to the Super Bowl, though. It's hard to find anyone outside of the Boston and Seattle areas that has much interest. The NFL is not having a very good year.
It's not hindsight. There are many different statistical models that show that taking each of those particular field goals is throwing away, on average 1.5 points each time. Meaning that the Packers would have won that game more often if they had gone for it both times. You gotta trust the numbers.
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It's not hindsight. There are many different statistical models that show that taking each of those particular field goals is throwing away, on average 1.5 points each time. Meaning that the Packers would have won that game more often if they had gone for it both times. You gotta trust the numbers.
That IS hindsight. How would the Packers know that they'd be in the same situation again?
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That IS hindsight. How would the Packers know that they'd be in the same situation again?
It's not hindsight when you can accurately predict a win percentage in real time for kicking a field goal vs. going for it based on field position, time left in the game, and season-based offensive data and defensive data. Football statisticians can do it in real time during games so there is no excuse in this day and age for the coach of a billion dollar franchise to consistently make provably poor decisions.
There have been books and charts about when to go for it on 4th down, when to punt and when to go for 2 after a touchdown for years but it's really just inexcusable now that excellent computer models and simulations are available to assimilate all the available football data.
Some resources:
NY times "Go for it" chart: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html?abt=0002&abg=1 Bot that makes real time decisions about 4th downs: https://twitter.com/nyt4thdownbothttp://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/4thdncalc1.php
http://www.johntreed.com/fttfourth.html http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html
Easterbrook has a lot of useful links in his columns: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/090922
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The guy has forgotten more football than all of us will ever know in our lifetimes. He believes in situations. 4th and goal from the 1 after 2nd and goal from the 1 is a different situation than 4th and goal from the 1 after 2nd and goal from the 8. The defense is winning in the first situation, and the offense is winning in the second situation. Green Bay played the second situation all season which is why they went for it so often.
It IS hindsight. If Seattle had missed the 2 point conversion and lost by 2 points, everyone would be talking about how brilliant Mike McCarthy was for kicking all those field goals and securing the points even if the numbers said he should gamble.
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It IS hindsight.
Not when real-time models can predict he is taking points away from his team by kicking a field goal it isn't. My posts have nothing to do with the outcome of that game. If the Packers had won it was still a stupid thing to do.
If Seattle had missed the 2 point conversion and lost by 2 points, everyone would be talking about how brilliant Mike McCarthy was for kicking all those field goals
Maybe they would, but they would be totally wrong to do so. You don't praise someone for making the wrong decision and then getting lucky.
Read the "Thank you for not coaching" section of this article.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/afc-nfc-championship-patriots-colts-seahawks-packers/and securing the points
His team scored fewer expected points by doing what they did. He gave away points.
even if the numbers said he should gamble.
Using the the word "gamble" to evoke risk and danger when going for it on 4th down or going for 2 is just silly. Each and every move in a game is risky. Going for it is a gamble, kicking the ball, taking a timeout is a gamble. It just turns out that kicking a field goal in those situations is MUCH riskier because it provably makes your team win less often.
It's taken a long time, but baseball has finally come around to the use of advanced statistics to rank players and make in-game decisions (such as when to bunt, issue intentional walks, etc). Teams like Oakland (Moneyball) and Tampa thrive on low salaries by using these analyses to gain a competitive edge. Due to the nature of the game it's much harder to use such analyses in football, but computer simulations, statistics and models are still quite powerful tools and it's honestly ridiculous to ignore them in 2015.
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No offense but there's a reason those guys work as writers and don't have jobs in the NFL. Yeah, it's super easy to blindly take statistics on 4th and goal from the 1 and criticize the loser. But it's nearly impossible to qualify the stats with which line is winning in the trenches the previous few plays. Green Bay's wasn't, and that 1 yard looked a whole lot longer than it usually would. There's actually more to football than down, distance, and time. But statistics are all writers are capable of talking about, so they're all that matter to them.
That's not to say that Mike McCarthy doesn't out think himself at times. Because he certainly seems to.
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No offense but there's a reason those guys work as writers and don't have jobs in the NFL.
I actually cited professors and statisticians above too and many of those people do have jobs in sports, including the NFL. They are employed (like a coach is) because franchises recognize their value in helping their team win.
Yeah, it's super easy to blindly take statistics on 4th and goal from the 1 and criticize the loser.
Like I've said three times now, I would criticize anyone making those decisions, even if they won.
There's actually more to football than down, distance, and time.
I understand (and so do the very smart people behind the analysis I've posted) that you can't quantify everything about an NFL game (it would be super boring if you could), and that there are far more things to consider than statistics but when models have proven success and predictive power it's simply foolish to ignore them time and time again.
Despite all I've said I do believe that McCarthy's coaching mistakes contributed far less to the loss than blind luck in favor of Seattle. Absolutely everything had to go Seattle's way at the end and somehow, someway it did.
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I actually cited professors and statisticians above too and many of those people do have jobs in sports, including the NFL. They are employed (like a coach is) because franchises recognize their value in helping their team win.
What you found are a bunch of stat geeks who discovered that coaches typically have success when they drum up the courage to go for it on 4th on short. What they've failed to uncover is why coaches would ever do anything else, so they assume stupidity or lack of balls on the coach's part. Which one of them is employed by an NFL team?
And you'd be surprised how many statistics PhD's papers can fall apart at the hands of a serious mathematician because they'll cheat with poor fitting curves and other such tricks. A smart NFL team will employ real mathematicians to filter the noise for them.
It's also not entirely their fault. They most likely aren't working with all of the data that an NFL head coach is working with, which allows them to produce simplified models.
Like I've said three times now, I would criticize anyone making those decisions, even if they won.
I bet you're real fun at parties.
I understand (and so do the very smart people behind the analysis I've posted) that you can't quantify everything about an NFL game (it would be super boring if you could), and that there are far more things to consider than statistics but when models have proven success and predictive power it's simply foolish to ignore them time and time again.
Maybe Mike McCarthy has access to more advanced models that were telling him a different story by factoring in more things. It's definitely possible after getting stuffed two plays in a row.
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No way. Of course, in the grand scheme of things a conference championship game appearance is still a pretty good season by most standards. But the fact of the matter is that they tightened up and blew a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Believe me, outside of the division there's nowhere the Packers would rather win a big game right now than Seattle with all the recent history there, and they had every opportunity. This one stings.
They definitely didn't give up after Dallas, though. They gave Seattle more than they wanted. They were the better team for 3 and a half quarters and started acting like the game was over.
I know, I was just ribbing ubiq haha
I like the packers well enough as far as 'teams that aren't Texas based teams" but I definitely like Seattle a smidge better than most
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What you found are a bunch of stat geeks who discovered that coaches typically have success when they drum up the courage to go for it on 4th on short.
Calling people like UC Berkeley professors "stat geeks" is just intentionally ignorant.
http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdfWhich one of them is employed by an NFL team?
You really want me to google that for you? Here's the first thing that comes up:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/25/sports/football/more-nfl-teams-hire-statisticians-but-their-use-remains-mostly-guarded.html?pagewanted=allAnd you'd be surprised how many statistics PhD's papers can fall apart at the hands of a serious mathematician because they'll cheat with poor fitting curves and other such tricks. A smart NFL team will employ real mathematicians to filter the noise for them.
I would not be surprised at all. I work in a very science heavy field and faulty statistics run rampant. Of course models and statistics can be used deceptively, everyone knows that but it's very, very stupid to see the same information from many independent, trusted sources and claim they must all be riddled with faults and "tricks". That's conspiracy theory stuff. That's "climate change isn't real" stuff. It's especially dumb to make such claims without even examining the data yourself.
I bet you're real fun at parties.
Dude, we're having a discussion on the internet, not partying. It's fine it you aren't interested in the topic but don't keep rambling about something you clearly know nothing about.
I'm done here.
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You're talking about football on the internet. Chill.
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Don't know if any of these coaches will make a difference in the next season, now it's multiple teams that need QB s for next season since so many are injured or traded and never used
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Calling people like UC Berkeley professors "stat geeks" is just intentionally ignorant.
http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdfNo it's not. He's a stat geek for a living. It's his entire career, and he trains other people to be stat geeks on top of it. He's like one of the pinnacles of stat geeks. Do you just not like the term because of some sort of implied negative connotations? I bet he'd agree with me.
You really want me to google that for you? Here's the first thing that comes up:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/25/sports/football/more-nfl-teams-hire-statisticians-but-their-use-remains-mostly-guarded.html?pagewanted=allJeff Dominitz? Which article that you posted earlier was written by him? That was my question, of all the links you've flooded me with, which one came from a guy who works for an NFL team?
I would not be surprised at all. I work in a very science heavy field and faulty statistics run rampant. Of course models and statistics can be used deceptively, everyone knows that but it's very, very stupid to see the same information from many independent, trusted sources and claim they must all be riddled with faults and "tricks". That's conspiracy theory stuff. That's "climate change isn't real" stuff. It's especially dumb to make such claims without even examining the data yourself.
Except I never even made the argument that that particular model was intentionally deceptive. Just incomplete. Quit projecting.
Dude, we're having a discussion on the internet, not partying. It's fine it you aren't interested in the topic but don't keep rambling about something you clearly know nothing about.
I'm done here.
Damn, and here when I go to parties it's pretty common for people to talk about football. I didn't realize I had stepped up to the majors by going online.
But why not just project some more false arguments on me and call me dumb again? Go with what got you here.
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That's not to say that Mike McCarthy doesn't out think himself at times. Because he certainly seems to.
That's being unfair to McCarthy; going by that series right before Seattle's two touchdowns, it's pretty clear that he sometimes doesn't think at all.
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That's being unfair to McCarthy; going by that series right before Seattle's two touchdowns, it's pretty clear that he sometimes doesn't think at all.
Don't just throw salt in the wounds throw the whole damn bag.
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Mort is reporting the balls the Pats used 11 balls under-inflatened by two pounds in the AFC title game. Let's face it, Colts would have lost even if the balls were filled with concrete. I wonder what the NFL will actually do–I think former players have mentioned this happening with a lot of teams.
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The Patriots cheat. In other breaking news: water still wet and Sun to rise in the east tomorrow.
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I'm confused as to who hates the Seahawks. Until last year they had never done anything. And this year, they're a team whose defense is still amazing to watch but whose offense is laughable. I honestly can't believe they're in the Superbowl, and I see them as big underdogs.
I don't know, I love watching the Seahawks play, as I love watching great defenses work.
Also, I hate the Patriots.
#2006NeverForget
#FireMarty -
@Steven:
Mort is reporting the balls the Pats used 11 balls under-inflatened by two pounds in the AFC title game. Let's face it, Colts would have lost even if the balls were filled with concrete. I wonder what the NFL will actually do–I think former players have mentioned this happening with a lot of teams.
IT looks like the officials will get the blame even if it is proven that the Patriots tampered with the balls after the ref inspection which will lead to the refs having full control over all the balls used during a game, which should have been done years ago.
Bellicheck sure loves to test the rules and even outright cheat if he thinks he can get away with it. If he was a college coach and he pulled this shit his team would be fined and even have wins vacated but as long as Kraft and Goodell are BFF's nothing will happen
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