@Monkey:
I really hope Netanyahu loses next year, reeaaaaly hope it.
He's apparently coming for a state visit soon over here soon btw.
@Monkey:
I really hope Netanyahu loses next year, reeaaaaly hope it.
He's apparently coming for a state visit soon over here soon btw.
very interesting to see a thread dedicated to discussing arabs, are any users here arabs by any chance?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20590129
Since when did syria legitimately own chemical weapons and who from?
Syria is believed to hold chemical weapons - including mustard gas and sarin, a highly toxic nerve agent - at dozens of sites around the country.
You think they would have learned from saddams mistakes. As for breaking international law, does anyone really want to play that card when Israel got off scott free using phosphorus on a civilian population. Its like one rule for one, and another for others. Point being that how can anyone really bother paying attention to these laws when some of the parties known for breaking them have had no repercussions whatsoever.
As for the chemical weapons, my guess is Someone from europe had a hand in it.
very interesting to see a thread dedicated to discussing arabs, are any users here arabs by any chance?
Uh, we aren't discussing Arabs. We're discussing the revolutionary wave that's been going on in the Arab world since 2011 started.
And yes, we have users from at least Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, and Qatar.
Since when did syria legitimately own chemical weapons and who from?
They confirmed what pretty much everybody knew back in July by openly admitting to having a chemical weapons program.
As for the chemical weapons, my guess is Someone from europe had a hand in it.
They were pals with the Soviet Union for decades and have strong relations with Iran and Russia so those are the most likely suspects.
@Monkey:
I really hope Netanyahu loses next year, reeaaaaly hope it.
I don't see any real contenders really. And seeing how he himself moved the election closer, it seems he's sure of winning.
@Monkey:
Uh, we aren't discussing Arabs. We're discussing the revolutionary wave that's been going on in the Arab world since 2011 started.
And yes, we have users from at least Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, and Qatar.
yeh, I meant discussing arab politics etc.
Clashes at the presidential palace in Egypt. At least the Egyptians aren't putting up with shit anymore.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/201212584345620395.html
egyptians got a small chance since morsi has the final say, and apparently the general of the army is from the muslim brotherhood.
unfortunately I can only see this being solved by a civil war.
Things happening in Tunisia. Violent street battles between leftists and Islamists outside the headquarters of the UGTT (Tunisian General Labor Union) in Tunis. The Islamists want the union cleansed of supposed Ben Ali remnants. This is after the UGTT held protests against the poor performance of Ennahda, which is a more moderate Islamist movement. I honestly can't tell if the Islamists are justified here or if they're trying to do what Iran did and purge the more leftist elements of the post-Arab Spring revolution.
Facebook video: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=475478585837128&set=vb.370684012973282&type=2&theater
edit: As for Morsi, he's better than Mubarak but what is that really saying?
And seeing how he himself moved the election closer, it seems he's sure of winning.
That could actually mean the opposite.
Things happening in Tunisia. Violent street battles between leftists and Islamists outside the headquarters of the UGTT (Tunisian General Labor Union) in Tunis. The Islamists want the union cleansed of supposed Ben Ali remnants. This is after the UGTT held protests against the poor performance of Ennahda, which is a more moderate Islamist movement.
The Islamists aren't in power, sounds like ordinary "OPPOSING POLITICAL PARTY ARE BAD GUYS WHO WANT TO RUIN THE COUNTRY" albeit in a fragile post-revolutionary state with violence. We've seen that around a lot of these countries, like accusing your opponent of being tied to the old regime is kind of like publically accusing someone of being a child pornographer.
That said I hope Tigerlilly is alright, people have said they haven't communicated with her for awhile. Lord knows she hates the Salafi types.
edit: As for Morsi, he's better than Mubarak but what is that really saying?
he really isn't, not that mubarak was good.
he really isn't, not that mubarak was good.
How is he worse?
I mean we still aren't entirely sure if he's genuinely trying to make himself dictator or is trying to use emergency powers to finally neuter the Mubarak stacked court people.
@Monkey:
How is he worse?
I mean we still aren't entirely sure if he's genuinely trying to make himself dictator or is trying to use emergency powers to finally neuter the Mubarak stacked court people.
he's from the muslim brotherhood, morsi and the brotherhood have been lying since day 1.
mubarak stole money, wasn't really good, but those guys are going to do the same and on top of that use their extremist ways + force against whoever opposes them.
it's been reported that people who are pro muslim brotherhood have been attacking and killing protesters.
he's from the muslim brotherhood, morsi and the brotherhood have been lying since day 1.
They've been participating in the democratic process until (possibly) now. Mubarak was dictator since Sadat was killed. Have the Muslim Brotherhood rebuilt the police state apparatus?
but those guys are going to do the same and on top of that use their extremist ways + force against whoever opposes them.
This is all hypothetical atm though.
it's been reported that people who are pro muslim brotherhood have been attacking and killing protesters.
Rival political mobs are fighting in the streets yeah. It's a riot. That's not the same as Mubarak's policemen and so forth.
There is the chance this is a threat on the rebels to back off from Damascus…
That said, someone who uses Sarin gas as a threat is also someone whose next step of desperation is probably to fire it...
This is scary.
Either way I feel this is a sign that the endgame is nigh. That's the silver lining if literally nothing else.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
I know I'm being silly, but it increasingly gives me a fucking jump in my throat when the news shows maps of the region with Cyprus right there.
http://rt.com/usa/news/us-eisenhower-syria-military-369/
USS Eisenhower arrives off Syrian coast. The USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, which holds about 2,500 Marines, is already there. Wonder what the other NATO members are going to be doing in the area.
edit: You have family/friends in Cyprus? Take care man. :sad:
edit: You have family/friends in Cyprus? Take care man. :sad:
Well I myself will be there in two weeks….0_0.
But no that's not even it, just the love of my life living there lol, no big!!!.......:sad:
I mean seriously, I know they're fine...even if Assad lobbed stuff at nearby countries he probably will forget Cyprus exists or not care about them and go after Israel and Turkey if it came to that.
Still, I dunno, when it comes to showing how fucking crazy that regime is (THIS), my well honed realistic no-panic nature can turn off sometimes.
@Monkey:
I know I'm being silly, but it increasingly gives me a fucking jump in my throat when the news shows maps of the region with Cyprus right there.
After this, any Syrian military aircraft that gets remotely near the borders of that country in any direction will be getting a bunch of challenges from the Turks, Israelis, and USS Eisenhower.
edit: You have family/friends in Cyprus? Take care man. :sad:
Chrissie is there(And I'm not sure if Zephos is at the moment.).
As for the chemical weapon threat, yeah. I imagine if he uses that, NATO will no longer have to worry about wondering how far they can intervene since I would imagine it would turn just about every country against them and making it difficult for those countries defending Syria to defend it any longer. Unfortunately, I believe there's a fair chance of the weapon being used if Assad feels he's about to lose all of his power since at that point, he will be much more focused about the immediate rebel thread than worrying about what NATO thinks.
I certainly don't believe he'll last much longer, but he seems to intend not to go down without taking much more people with him.
I never took Assad for this kind of dictator. Like Gaddafi? A crazy Donald Trump esque cartoon megalomaniac literally willing to fight to the death for his throne? No SHIT.
But Assad?? He seemed like Mubarak/Ben Ali 2.0, I mean his regime was obviously ten times as brutal and horrible, but I always felt like the nature of Assad and the ruling circle was just that of besuited mafioso kleptocrats like Mubarak. Not GGRGRRARARA KILL EVERYONE I'LL NEVER GO Gaddafi. His response to really clearly losing should be to just leave with a ton of cash for somewhere nice. Or even somewhere shitty like Belarus, but SOMEWHERE.
I half wonder if, since his runaway options are so limited….Iran basically...
That maybe Iran is refusing to take him until they give a green light. Maybe they want to run out the clock as late as possible with his regime.
I mean I know Venezuela has offered but as I joked once, it would be hard I think to smuggle him there with all that hostile airspace. Even getting to Iran would be tricky.
Obviously, future dictators will start building secret underground tunnels connected to friendly countries as a result of these situations.
There are rumors that Assad escaped to Russia on a plane a few weeks back, although I doubt they're true.
Nah, not even Putin's government would do something as stupid as that right now. They have already pretty much cornered themselves as far as the rest of the world, especially the Arab part of it, is concerned as a result of adopting inane stalling policies that have only served to extend the duration of the Syrian crisis. Taking in Assad would be a surefire way to lose all the remaining credibility they have left.
Right. No amount of money Assad could bring with him would be worth the reputation loss Russia would suffer if the rest of the world figured out about that kind of stunt.
That's why Iran is his option.
Nah, not even Putin's government would do something as stupid as that right now. They have already pretty much cornered themselves as far as the rest of the world, especially the Arab part of it, is concerned as a result of adopting inane stalling policies that have only served to extend the duration of the Syrian crisis. Taking in Assad would be a surefire way to lose all the remaining credibility they have left.
They actualy still have any left ?
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
@Monkey:
I never took Assad for this kind of dictator. Like Gaddafi? A crazy Donald Trump esque cartoon megalomaniac literally willing to fight to the death for his throne? No SHIT.
But Assad?? He seemed like Mubarak/Ben Ali 2.0, I mean his regime was obviously ten times as brutal and horrible, but I always felt like the nature of Assad and the ruling circle was just that of besuited mafioso kleptocrats like Mubarak. Not GGRGRRARARA KILL EVERYONE I'LL NEVER GO Gaddafi. His response to really clearly losing should be to just leave with a ton of cash for somewhere nice. Or even somewhere shitty like Belarus, but SOMEWHERE.I half wonder if, since his runaway options are so limited….Iran basically...
That maybe Iran is refusing to take him until they give a green light. Maybe they want to run out the clock as late as possible with his regime.
I mean I know Venezuela has offered but as I joked once, it would be hard I think to smuggle him there with all that hostile airspace. Even getting to Iran would be tricky.
Hell Gaddafi at least looked the part (and realy, if you dress like an Austin Powers character, what do you expect ?), but Assad looks like a guy who goes door to door selling insurance.
And yeah, I can't believe Russia still has the nerves to stall on the issue when those guys admtited they have chemical weapons and are ready to use them.
Also, there's no way Assad would care for Cyprus methinks. Realy, he has Turkey to worry about and I can see them jumping at the oportunity to fire a rocket right in his face.
Part of me almost hopes the bastard steps over the line as it would basically mean the end of the war.
Never underestimate the stupidity of a man whose skull is literally flat at the top
Assad accusing west of making it up, Russia saying he's assured them he isn't gonna do shit etc.
Violence outside the presidential palace in Cairo
And Syria on its weapons:
(Reuters) - Western powers are whipping up fears of a fateful move to the use of chemical weapons in Syria's civil war as a "pretext for intervention", President Bashar al-Assad's deputy foreign minister said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121206
And Syria on its weapons:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121206
lol what's the point of listening to regime made updates?
Because I find them amusing in how transparent the lying is.
So, today, in about 15 minutes, a meeting between Morsi and the opposition is occurring to discuss the current situation and find some grounds for agreement. There are positive signs before this meeting, and there are talks about a possible postponing of the referendum on the constitution, which the opposition have demanded.
Morsi also expressed his willingness to change, or remove, some of the controversial parts of the last decree.
Decree's been annulled, but the referendum will go ahead next Saturday. Seeing as the constitution was heavily criticised, and was passed almost entirely by elderly Islamists after others walked out or were forced out, it really ought to have been amended before being put to the people. So as I understand it, this is bad.
Elderly Islamist? Lol
You wanna hear something funny? Most of the draft was agreed upon by all political parties, including the so-called opposition. That same group was there from the beginning, and when did they decide to walk out? Yup, just when the draft is about to be done. And then they tell you that they had nothing to do with it. Lol
Wanna hear something funnier? For part of the opposition (unfortunately the one getting most media coverage) it's not about the draft being islamist-controled or how the assembly is controlled by islamists. It's not. For this group, the so-called Rescue Front lol, there is just one article that if added to the constitution draft, it would make it the BEST CONSTITUTION EVER for them.
Wanna hear it? Okay.
! There shall be presidential elections after the constitution is agreed upon. Dun Dun Duuuun
Lol, rescue front my ass.
Blaming islamists. That's the only thing they can do since, politically, they are so empty that they can't even be considered a real opposition for the MBs.
MBs militias? Lol
Guess who died in the recent riots? Yup, you got that right.
Guess who's quarters were damaged and burned in different cities of the country? Yup, you're right again. That's two in a row.
Now guess who did it??????????
Wait, don't answer, it's actually a trick question. One that will be answered later.
[hide]Some notes:
Yes, there is actually an opposition that is concerned for the country, but, like I said, egyptian media don't give them much attention.
Apparently, the parliament, when elected, can edit any article in the constitution they want to. And requesting a change only needs 5% of the members
My favorite opposition group is yet to make a statement on Morsi's latest decision.[/hide]
So, the Egyptian opposition have agreed to participate in the referendum (and vote no). Kind of should've been their move from the start rather than all that mess.
In Syrian news: "The friends of Syria" meeting occurred today and is expected to recognize the Syrian opposition as the sole representative of the country. The meeting is still going so hopefully there will be more good news.
Edit: Rrrr, Forget what I said about Egypt's opposition's stance for now.
Meanwhile in Israel, passive agressive oppression! Yayyyy!
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/2012121272233865880.html
Yesterday, they raided the "Prisoner Support and Human Rights office" in the west bank and took a bunch of computers and files and basically messed up their office.
@Cyan:
Meanwhile in Israel, passive agressive oppression! Yayyyy!
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/2012121272233865880.html
Most oppression is passive-aggressive nowadays. :sad:
The first round of voting begins in Egypts referendum. Meanwhile, in Syria, people starve.
Even as the international community looks on anxiously at a brutal civil war that has dragged on for 21 months already, internal refugees struggle to get by. In the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, in FSA territory, the bread factory fails to produce as the old supply chain has been cut by the conflict, depriving the factory of flour. Worse yet, they don't have the electricity to run the machinery - in many areas, electricity may come on for just a few minutes in the evening, which is disastrous in the middle of winter. The FSA has pledged the factory manager a generator, but that has amounted to nothing yet. And to make matters even worse still, the factory has been targeted by loyalist forces three times already, killing six workers. It is quite possible that loyalist forces are targeting bakeries to starve rebel areas into submission. The other local factory - a much smaller affair - is crowded by people who wait from dawn to get bread - if they are lucky. Villagers from nearby come to the town hoping for the food they can't find at home, often to no avail.
Fuel prices have skyrocketed amongst spiralling inflation: fuel oil used to heat homes cheaply has increased in price tenfold, while the inflation has rendered savings useless. Cooking gas is now forbiddingly expensive for many Syrians.
A Syrian charity trying to provide food in northern Syria needs 600 tonnes of flour per day to supply the bakeries, and 1 million tonnes to feed northern Syria, but his only recent donation from the international community has been 200 tonnes which sits across the Turkish border, as no-one will drive it through Syria without charging ludicrous prices.
As all of this is going on, neighbouring countries are closing their borders to refugees, of which 400,000 have already left the country.
What might be interesting to note is that the war is costing $1 billion per month, and the government is estimated to have only $3-4 billion remaining. Although Assad remains powerful, this does suggest that he is running out of time.
A swath of local-level democratic reforms are apparently on the schedule for Kazakhstan. Basically people will actually be voting for mayors and things like that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20121214/as-kazakhstan-elections/?utm_hp_ref=politics&ir=politics
It's far from the country being democratic but it's a definite start. They're also going to standardize use of the Latin alphabet instead of Cyrillic.
Probably all in all this is economically motivated, Kazkahstan is kind of like Brazil or any of the major Latin American countries. Historically poor and troubled, but on the verge of huge success and eager to get there. Realizing that remaining an outright dictatorship might not be best for things like attracting foreign investment (lightening the image and so forth), plus connecting Kazakhstan to English closer.
Keep in mind also that Kazakhstan doesn't have a half bad HDI score (around Russia and Libya for reference), a country on the move as it were.
The contrasts with Uzbekistan are probably going to be starker and starker as the years go on. Goofus and Gallant of Central Asia.
Gallant allows democratic process in hopes of bolstering post-Soviet economy
Goofus spends millions to dig up drained Aral Sea in hopes of oil or maybe diamonds, further destroying the local environment
Morsi's constitution passes the first half of the referndum, with 56% approval and 43% rejection in a 33% turnout . . .
I have just discovered this thread. I am a big fan of the Arab Spring. I have been following it closely on the news and social media. It just never occurred to me that there would be such a thread on AP. Oh, and what a thread it is. I read both threads. Damn they brought back a lot of memories. It was quite an experience. And frankly put things into perspective. I now see That Gaddafi and Assad killed the momentum of the revolutionary wave, using unbelievable levels of violence. You can see the participation in the thread slowly die off as things get dire. Which is a shame and very reflective of reality sadly.
Anyway, I'd like to share my two cents with you fine people.
I'll talk about Syria since it's the main story for now. I will try to give my impression of the big picture. Which will mean there will be factual inaccuracies by the very nature of summaries, plus this is mostly from social media and inherently inaccurate and finally my memory of things can be wrong. I might not even be able to provide sources. So with all these caveats and with a grain of salt I give you Syria present situation.
You all know that Syria began peaceful. Only through extreme violence did people pick up arms. Of course They still do demonstrations every Friday. Last one was under the title "Assad is the only terrorist in Syria". To respond to the US designating Al nusra front a terrorist organization. A very Ill timed decision if you ask me. Speaking of Al-nusra which means help or solidarity. Their leadership are from Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia most probably. The name itself hints at this origin. They are there to help Syrians. Anyway, what's funny is that Assad's regime had heavily infiltrated this group like all jihadi groups in an effort to export violence to Iraq and to control the outcome. In the beginning of the armed struggle they did questionable things like releasing prisoners they had just apprehended. But perhaps through change of leadership the monster the regime had created had turned on them. Al-Nusra remain the most successful of the many groups of Syrian resistance. They are however not under the FSA umbrella group nor do they carry the independence flag of Syria. Which means they will cause trouble in the future. But for now they are quite useful. They are better trained and funded than many groups. And remarkably disciplined. Perhaps they have learned from Iraq not to attack civilians, where Abu Musab Zarqawi had caused horrific scenes of death. These were the basis for the backlash and awaking camps that the US created to kill the insurgency in Iraq. But that is another topic for another time. Al Nusra are everywhere however they dominate the Deir Ezzor or eastern front. It’s useful to think of Syria as Europe in WW2. Al Nusra are the commies on the eastern front. Everyone else is the Allies on the western front. This metaphor is quite useful in many ways ;)
The FSA was started by defected soldiers and civilians picking up arms much like Libya. The difference is that top brass in Syria is mostly Alawi and thus extremely loyal to the regime. So only few top brass defected and they were so far a part that there was no leadership structure in the FSA. Hossein al Harmosh who started the FSA was caught and publicly executed. And Riad Al As'ad who defected from Deir Ezzor was it's figure head for a long time. until a couple of weeks ago. Now they have joint chiefs of staff and a head of the joint chiefs Selim Idris who is the effective leader.
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/12/11/254506.html
Also unlike Libya the FSA has yet to control a major city. There are many reasons. Mainly the Syrian army's sectarian make up helps preserve loyalty. Syrian pilots for example have no problem bombing civilians unlike Libyans who intentionally missed or defected. The core Alawi nucleus also decreases ability of other sects to defect. So Syria needed far less mercenaries than Libya. Though Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi and Iranian militias have been observed.(All these are Shia, the alawi’s are Shia too, arguably ) Syria is much smaller more densely populated than Libya. With more side roads and country roads interconnecting villages and cities. Unlike Libya Which is basically one long coastal road with cities at various intervals. This makes defending territory against a regular army disastrous. The FSA tried this in Homs and Idlib in the Summer of 2011 with sever consequences. So the FSA now use guerrilla tactics. And have used this war of attrition to slowly grow in size, gain weapons and eat away at regime personnel and equipment. They largely control the country side. suburbs and outskirts of cities. interconnecting roads etc. you get the picture. The only exceptions are the coastal areas. there is very little fighting there. As the three main coastal cities have sizable Alawi population Also country side and mountains in that region are filled with Alawi villages. That is their motherland. they were historically a mountain people. With that exception all other countryside is mostly in FSA control. There are regime posts everywhere but they can't usually project strength outside their walls. Each side can and does enter the other's domain but at grave cost.
The FSA started with light arms sometimes antique guns and through looting and ambushing the regime they got better and better arms. If there is any foreign arming of the rebels the amounts are miniscule and no where near enough to sustain the rebels current advances. Their favorite and most effective weapon is the home made IED. Through these roadside bombs they have cut regime supply lines and did much damage to it’s armor. This is why they control the countryside. Only after getting RPGs and other anti tank weapons from their various exploits did the start posing a threat to tanks inside the cities. In the beginning they used to report every tank the stole or blew up, now it happens so frequently that only major tank massacres get mentioned any more.
The current status quo stems from the spectacular bomb attack of the crisis management cell. The brains of the Assad regime on the 18th of july 2012. The confusion that followed made Assad lose the initiative. While prior he would send troops to hunt the FSA, now he can only defend his various positions against their attacks. Emboldened by this bombing. FSA who had taken Aleppo countryside advanced on to the city itself. The same was done in Damascus. I don’t if the Damascus move was to scatter Assad forces to allow Aleppo to fall or if it was for moral or if they actually believed they could take it. It did however end up dividing Assad’s attention. He did send reinforcements to Aleppo but far less than he would have had his capital not been threatened he also pulled troops from distant areas. Like kurdish areas and border areas. FSA hit a lot of the Aleppo reinforcements on the way in Idlib, Hama and Homs. They also managed to seize many border crossings to Turkey in the north, Iraq to the east and even briefly jordan to the south. This allowed better supply lines especially via Turkey. Along with vast areas falling under FSA control. Now airports in Idlib and Aleppo were surrounded. Many military installations also were surrounded in the north.
Assads remaining trump card is his air force. Only through it is he able to resupply his distant bases in the north. Especially since The FSA took Maarat Al Numan in Idlib. This little town sits on the highways from Damascus to Aleppo and from Latakia to Aleppo. Cutting the main supply lines to Aleppo. No wonder, Assad flattened this town completely.
Throughout this whole war Assads doesn’t follow any tactical or strategic plan. He only focuses on punishing civilians that dare to defy him. Like Hitler in the war of Britain. Focusing on bombing London instead of the royal air force bases. So does Assad focus on bombing civilians instead of facing the FSA or bombing their locations. This is getting more pronounced as the war proceeds. Whether this cowardice from a demoralized army or following actual orders in hopes of cowering the population I don’t know. As I mentioned before Assad has an infantry problem. He can’t march his forces in any decent numbers out of his bases. They either defect or get massacred by the FSA. This is why he relies on shelling cities from his surrounding bases. Or shelling neighborhoods The FSA seizes from ones he controls. This plus aerial bombardment is his only offensive tools left.
The FSA has gained through seizure many surface to air missiles. And have been dropping helicopters and MiGs with increasing regularity. This plus storming military airports throughout the country is slowly defanging Assads last conventional trump card. The only tool of escalation remaining to him is his chemical weapons. But even the window of opportunity on that is quickly closing. this is from the Washington Post
“Last week, fighters from a group that the Obama administration has branded a terrorist organization were among rebels who seized the Sheik Suleiman military base near Aleppo, where research on chemical weapons had been conducted. Rebels are also closing in on another base near Aleppo, known as Safirah, which has served as a major production center for such munitions, according to U.S. officials and analysts.”
I believe this will be deterrent against Assad using them. Or maybe that is wishful thinking either way I’m optimistic. I don’t believe Assad will use CWs. And If he does I don’t think he can derive any tactical or strategic gain from it. He only makes ethnic cleansing of the Alawis more likely if he does.
!
So where do things stand on the ground? Lets start on the eastern front. Starting from the Iraqi border.(Sunni tribes span the border, smuggling weapons is their favorite pastime) Fighters take the town of Al Bukamal and follow the Euphrates north. taking towns destroying bases, etc. They have reached and surrounded Deir Ezzor. Only one base plus the military airport remain in the hands of the regime. From them the city is shelled. Aerial bombardment also still a major cause of loss of life there. The rebels now surround both bases. They gained many SAMs and have hit quite a few MiGs. In fact Deir Ezzor is second only to Idlib where it all started in the number of planes downed. So go beduins!
I think Deir Ezzor will be the first major city to be liberated. From there rebels will follow the Euphrates north to Ar Raqqah. These are the hillbillies of Syria. The only place where no demonstrations against the regime occurred. In fact in 2011 Assad went there to pray Al Eid prayer(he needs to pretend to be Muslim to rule Syria, it’s in the constitution, the threat of removing that clause is what caused the previous uprising that ended in Hama massacre 1982 but that is another topic entirely) Hell even the coastal cities had demonstrations! Not Ar Raqqah. Hillbillies think going out in unarmed demonstrations is stupid. Can’t say that I blame them. They have no problem with picking up arms though. God bless them, the blew up their governors car a few weeks back, nearly got him too. They took the major dam on the Euphrates. Along with many bases. Ar Raqqah city is also close to being liberated. Once that is done, everything east of the Euphrates will be in rebel hands. That is the rural sparsely populated part of Syria. It’s Also the part that has the Kurds in the north along the Tigris mostly and along the eastern parts of the border with Turkey. The Kurdish issue is complicated to say the least. For Now the PYD which are the branch of the PKK in Turkey are pro regime. All the other acronyms are pro revolution. The regime withdrew most of its forces from Kurdish land. Some still remain. This lead to clashes between FSA mostly Islamic units and the Kurds Mostly PYD. This has occurred even in Aleppo!?. So now the Kurds attack the regime checkpoints on their land so as not to give the FSA an excuse to invade. Thus keeping the land in Kurdish hands, at least that’s what I think, who the fuck knows?
Aleppo: Most the bases surrounding Aleppo have been seiged for months and are falling rapidly now. The infantry school and Hanano base just fell a couple of days ago. There is still that Chemical weapons base I talked about earlier. The rebels are afraid of storming that, can you blame them! they do have it surrounded though. Only Minakh military airport remains I believe. So Aleppo is almost completely surrounded. Aleppo international airport stopped functioning, but hasn’t been stormed yet. Aleppo is the only place in Syria where rebels are holding their ground. It’s grinding street warfare. Where snipers rule. The regime units in the city are surrounded but hanging on viciously helped by Shelling and Aerial bombardment. Plus the very nature of this kind of war is slow. In no other major city are the rebels holding neighbourhoods in any sense of that word. Rather the usually tactically retreat in the face of superior fire power and live to fight again. Not in Aleppo. Street by bloody street it grinds on and on while the city literally starves. I expect Aleppo to fall after Ar Raqqah.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19285076
Idlib: Is where the armed rebellion started. It is to the South West of Aleppo. Cutting the lines of supply into Aleppo as I mentioned earlier. Most of the terrain is Mountainous and difficult. Idlib city is still in regime hands. Most everywhere else has fallen. The rebels just finished liberating the last stretch of border with Turkey in Idlib province about a week ago. They are pushing to the west into Latakia. There they hope to separate Turkey completely from the Syrian regime and reach the coast. This is important for supplies but more so because this area of Turkey is Alawi stronghold. Thus cutting them off from Syria is strategically important. Turkey Alawis and Alvis (Arab and Turkish respectfully) are staunchly pro regime. They have funded and volunteered to be Shabiha and harassed Syrian refugees. Isolating them from the Alawi dense Syrian coast is very very important. Finally Idlib FSA have pushed south 40 kilometers past Maarat Al Numan into Hama countryside in the last couple of days. Finally Idlib FSA have destroyed all regime military airports in their province quite a while back. 2 military airports if I remember correctly. Oh, Liwaa Al Umma is one of the major FSA groups in Idlib. It has Libyan Leadership. The same ones that stormed Tripoli.
Hama: Perhaps scarred by the Shadow of it 1982 massacre, perhaps do it’s central position and difficulty of getting arms there Hama province, especially the city, the 4th largest in Syria, was quiet. Only Two days ago did the FSA start a major offensive in Hama. They liberated dozens of towns in its countryside and hope to reach the city in 2 days. The city has a checkpoint at every intersection according to activists there.
The regime is yet to win a victory in 80 days in the north and east I previously discussed. Obviously Assad's military is rapidly collapsing. The question is where is the next equilibrium point, if any. Or will the regime continually degrade with accelerating speed until its demise.
Homs: like Hama there is significant Alawi presence here. Homs has perhaps bared the worst of the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah is heavily involved here do to proximity to Lebanon. The Situation there is unclear. Though the FSA have been recently making advancements. It is basically a meat grinder there. lots of battles and death yet the lines remain almost the same for now.
The coast with the exception of north Latakia near the Turkish border little is occurring here for now. Some Alawi infighting have been reported though.
Daraa: Because of it’s position in the extreme south supplies are hard to get there. the desert to the east. Uncooperative Jordan to the south. Damascus to the North. And Lebanon to the west. You get the picture. Most of the Syrian Army used to be here near Israel. But since the summer they have been increasingly mobilized elsewhere. FSA here lack supplies to challenge the regime so function mainly via ambushes and IEDs still. But there is un uptake in activity as Damascus gets stressed further.
Damascus: If you can imagine Damascus from above. Qassioun mountain is to the North West. At its foot is the presidential palace. Surrounded by Alawite neighbourhoods and slums then downtown Damascus. All of this is Surrounded by Suburbs and Palestinian refugee camps which seem to be in FSA hands. Remember this is not like Aleppo. FSA retreat and attack, slowly gaining closer to the heart of the regime. They resemble a horse shoe pitting Assad against the mountain. If this was conventional war holding the mountain would have been the key. But the FSA can’t do that. They can only do street warfare in areas where they have population support. Most deaths in the war are now in Damascus. The regime is heavily shelling FSA “controlled” neighborhoods and bombing them from his helicopters and fixed wing jets. Just a month ago dropping a jet over Damascus was unthinkable. Now it happens everyday, almost. Damascus International Airport is surrounded and closed. The battle here is for areas to maneuver in and over highways and roads for supplies. Meanwhile, FSA have destroyed many bases including helicopter bases, air defense bases and others. One of three main rader bases has been destroyed. the other 2 are Latakia and Homs. Many bases remain. 4th armored division base , mezzah military airbase and many others. However the regime for now seems unable to defend its capital against this seemingly legitimate challenge.
This is a very good presentation about the situation in Damascus, the maps used are a bit old though, so the situation is a bit worse for the regime.
http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/graphsandstat/battle-damascus-current-state-play-syria
I believe Damascus is only months away from falling. This will be followed by the fight for the coast.
Speaking of Al-nusra which means help or solidarity. Their leadership are from Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia most probably. The name itself hints at this origin.
Really?
It’s useful to think of Syria as Europe in WW2. Al Nusra are the commies on the eastern front. Everyone else is the Allies on the western front. This metaphor is quite useful in many ways ;)
More like the toleration of al-Nusra is like Germany shipping Lenin over to Russia in the First World War. He may have be a 'dangerous revolutionary' whose success in Russia would perpetuate socialism in Germany, but it was worth it for Germany in WWI alone. So al-Nusra, if indeed it is as foreign-backed as claimed, is great for toppling Assad now, but could cause problems for the new Syria later. Whatever the Allies thought of the USSR's political nature, they could not have condemned it fighting in its own defence, could they?
If the analogy did work, it would be more of a stark warning to deal with the issue of al-Nusra now so that they DON'T later have influence.
So Syria needed far less mercenaries than Libya. Though Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi and Iranian militias have been observed.(All these are Shia, the alawi’s are Shia too, arguably )
Don't think the use of mercenaries has much to do with what the military were and were not willing to do in each case. there are wider circumstances at play.
Also, arguably? Surely, outright.Throughout this whole war Assads doesn’t follow any tactical or strategic plan. He only focuses on punishing civilians that dare to defy him. Like Hitler in the war of Britain. Focusing on bombing London instead of the royal air force bases. So does Assad focus on bombing civilians instead of facing the FSA or bombing their locations. This is getting more pronounced as the war proceeds. Whether this cowardice from a demoralized army or following actual orders in hopes of cowering the population I don’t know. As I mentioned before Assad has an infantry problem. He can’t march his forces in any decent numbers out of his bases. They either defect or get massacred by the FSA. This is why he relies on shelling cities from his surrounding bases. Or shelling neighborhoods The FSA seizes from ones he controls. This plus aerial bombardment is his only offensive tools left.
Wait … the Luftwaffe only bombed civilian areas? Bullshit. They bombed RAF bases and infrastructure, shipping areas and infrastructure, general ground infrastructure, factories AND civilian areas. And to villainise Assad by comparing him to Hitler is stupid ... the RAF did exactly the same thing back to the Nazis. Ever heard of the bombing of Dresden? And let's not forget the US strategy in Vietnam ... can't find the Northern guerrillas? Bomb Vietnam 'back to the stone age' ... and defoliate the rainforest too. Also, I'm completely unconvinced that Assad 'doesn't follow any tactical or strategic plan' . . .
Really?
More like the toleration of al-Nusra is like Germany shipping Lenin over to Russia in the First World War. He may have be a 'dangerous revolutionary' whose success in Russia would perpetuate socialism in Germany, but it was worth it for Germany in WWI alone. So al-Nusra, if indeed it is as foreign-backed as claimed, is great for toppling Assad now, but could cause problems for the new Syria later. Whatever the Allies thought of the USSR's political nature, they could not have condemned it fighting in its own defence, could they?
If the analogy did work, it would be more of a stark warning to deal with the issue of al-Nusra now so that they DON'T later have influence.
Don't think the use of mercenaries has much to do with what the military were and were not willing to do in each case. there are wider circumstances at play.
Also, arguably? Surely, outright.Wait … the Luftwaffe only bombed civilian areas? Bullshit. They bombed RAF bases and infrastructure, shipping areas and infrastructure, general ground infrastructure, factories AND civilian areas. And to villainise Assad by comparing him to Hitler is stupid ... the RAF did exactly the same thing back to the Nazis. Ever heard of the bombing of Dresden? And let's not forget the US strategy in Vietnam ... can't find the Northern guerrillas? Bomb Vietnam 'back to the stone age' ... and defoliate the rainforest too. Also, I'm completely unconvinced that Assad 'doesn't follow any tactical or strategic plan' . . .
First of All I use a metaphor to help explain things. You can't argue against me using the fact that the Syrian civil war is not an exact replica of WW2. Of course it isn't. Do you know what a metaphor is?
Second there is no way to deal with Al Nusra now without creating more problems. That is why America's timing in declaring them terrorists is wrong. No one is arguing the merits of the designation. War is always about priorities.
Third Alawites are technically Shia. Really they are Pagans. They are older than Christianity and Islam. When Christianity came along they adapted by incorporating the Trinity into their beliefs. They also celebrate Christmas. From Shia Islam the incorporate the cult of Ali into their Trinity. They don't pray 5 times a day and they don't fast in Ramadan. The Alevis in Turkey live in less fear of discrimination and have only recently allowed outsiders into their temples. CNN's Ivan Watson I believe did a report in one of their temples. I suggest you watch it. Sunni's don't consider them Muslims Shias don't either. However, it was Musa Al Sadr, a Shia cleric in Lebanon, who in 1976 I believe, issued a religious edict classifying them as Shia. This was done for political reasons. The Alawites control Syria since the 1963 coup. It was advantageous for Iran and Lebanon to add Syria as an ally. This only got more pronounced with the Iranian revolution and creation of Hezbollah.
It's also a lie that this is a secular regime. If it was why then was the allegedly secular Syrian Baath staunch enemies of the allegedly secular Iraqi Baath. And why is the allegedly secular Syrian Baath close allies with Hezbollah and Iran. Who just happen, by mere coincidence I'm sure, to classify Alwites as Shia. Also why does the allegdly secular CHP party in Turkey support Assad? could it be because it's leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and a sizable part of it's voters are Alevis?? Surely these are all coincidences.
Fourth, about the war of Britain rolls eyes this is again an approximation to clarify. Of course the Germans bombed military targets as well. The British Also had Radar, which helped! But concentrating on London is what lost them the campaign. And everyone knows the Allies bombed Dresden. They also bombed Berlin which made stupid Hitler veer off course and start bombing London in the first place. Comparing Hitler and Assad in this point of military stupidity is legitimate.
I don't need to vilify Assad he is already a comic book villain. Hitler, too!
Which brings me to fifth, what is your point? What is the over all message you are trying to deliver? Are you an Assad apologist? Frankly, the last parts hint at Hitler apologist, too. If so you are way beyond my powers of reasoning.
I only know one type of creature that can be both an Assad and Hitler apologist. The old fashioned anti-imperialist Arab Leftist. Are you one? I thought they were extinct?