Shuhan's playhouse theater presents: Chester's Revenge

SpaceCowboy

Can someone fill me in on the last installment of Shuhan's Play?

We were given some One Piece characters and sent to a cave.

In the cave there was a letter stuck on a door by a knife. Then a very handsome player figured that he could pick up the knife.
on D2 we found some chest and the very handsome and wise player figured that he could open the chest with the knife and released the evil that was Chester the Evil Chest Guy.
Then it allowed players to pick items every Night that gave them some sort of ability depending on the item that was picked.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Ah yes, he gave items in trade for penalties I believe. I was a mafia guy and since I was also the handsome, wise and hung player that found the thing he gave me one for free, so I forgot that.

BellisarioFaith

@Jabberwok:

Can someone fill me in on the last installment of Shuhan's Play?

That one was a little Mafia-heavy (7 Town, 3 Mafia), but the quirk in that game was that almost everybody–Townies and Mafia--were vanilla. (I think there was only one exception: that we had an Insane Cop. Which made things pretty messy, haha.) However, each day, players were offered a selection of items, each of which would give them a one-off power (sometimes used during the Night, sometimes during the Day). Some items included a shield that protected from a kill, a tracking device that let you find out who someone visited during the Night, and a cannon you could use at any time to kill somebody.

That was actually the first Mafia game I ever played here, and it was pretty fun even if the numbers were kind of skewed in the Mafia's favor. The item game was a really creative way of doing the powers.

Also, for others who played that one, if there's anything of major importance I forgot, feel free to add on. It's been almost two years since that game, so I may have forgotten some stuff, haha.

Shinobu Mahara

Hot damn, the madness has begun, not much of a statistics guy, but id like to think 2 maf sounds about right.
Seeing first day (fun) lynch votes makes me shake my head every time.

Wooden_Giraffe

@Shinobu:

Hot damn, the madness has begun, not much of a statistics guy, but id like to think 2 maf sounds about right.
Seeing first day (fun) lynch votes makes me shake my head every time.

Did I miss a Lynch vote or are you talking about the one I posted before the game started?

Shinobu Mahara

Im exactly talking about that first joke vote as soon as game started. So no you didnt miss one.

SpaceCowboy

@Shinobu:

Hot damn, the madness has begun, not much of a statistics guy, but id like to think 2 maf sounds about right.
Seeing first day (fun) lynch votes makes me shake my head every time.

What do you think about Jabber's/Faith's hypothesis about a possible third element?

Foolio

Okay well unless there's a secret 8th player, we're all here so no need to discuss lurkers. I also wanted to reply to this:

@SpaceCowboy:

Regarding that, 1 vs 7 could only be possible depending on the way the mod sets it up. However, the randomness of the item distribution makes me believe that it would be hard to balance. Depending on what the mafia guy picked, it could be pretty much impossible to stand up against a 7 men town.
I'm also assuming 2 mafia for now.

I think Jabberwok has the right idea in that the items were probably tied to roles. So it's not like we were randomly assigned roles and THEN randomly assigned items, but rather both at once. That's the only way you could make this remotely fair. Not that our maleficent overclown is known for being fair :ninja:

Shinobu Mahara

@SpaceCowboy:

What do you think about Jabber's/Faith's hypothesis about a possible third element?

wut? Read over what they both said and i feel like i might misinterpret what element youre talking about. Simply meaning the items given out?

SpaceCowboy

@Shinobu:

wut? Read over what they both said and i feel like i might misinterpret what element youre talking about. Simply meaning the items given out?

They discussed the possibility of a third party guy and the set up being 5 vs 1 vs 1. One mafia and one third partyish player.
You said you bekieved in 2 mafia, but i'm wondering what you think of this possibility.

Shinobu Mahara

@SpaceCowboy:

They discussed the possibility of a third party guy and the set up being 5 vs 1 vs 1. One mafia and one third partyish player.
You said you bekieved in 2 mafia, but i'm wondering what you think of this possibility.

Well across the entire dynamic, from first assumption, when looking at the items throughout… 2 mafia, 4 siding to town. With a possible bad or good 3rd party. What that might be exactly id have no idea cause at this point its pretty up in the air.
I don't really personally think that they would make the stakes that harsh, but usually i'm always wrong, so that doesn't say much. Water hose kinda threw me off, but i'm sure that in due time, a greater understanding will reveal itself.

Wooden_Giraffe

I had hoped to come in and post more about setup, but I’m about to go on a 5 hr drive that will keep tied up til after Day 1 ends. In case someone brings it up(as someone often does), I’m not in favor of lynching anyone at this point.

SpaceCowboy

@Foolio:

I think Jabberwok has the right idea in that the items were probably tied to roles. So it's not like we were randomly assigned roles and THEN randomly assigned items, but rather both at once. That's the only way you could make this remotely fair. Not that our maleficent overclown is known for being fair :ninja:

But that's the thing: 6 vs 1 and that 1's capacity to fight back is reliant on the item randomly given to him seems a bit odd.

But the same can be said for a 2vs5. Assuming the mafia will always have the ability to kill and some item related shenanigans also seems overwhelming for the town to deal with.

I have to state that my previous posts were made with the mistake of thinking we actually had 8 players, and a 6 vs 2 didn't seem so bad, but 5 vs 2 definitly seems somewhat hard to pull.
I'm a bit interested in the 5 vs 1 vs 1 scenario, assuming the "1" has no ability to kill, but for now for precaution I'll just play assuming we have 2 mafia to avoid any fatal mistake.

Foolio

@SpaceCowboy:

But that's the thing: 6 vs 1 and that 1's capacity to fight back is reliant on the item randomly given to him seems a bit odd.

I don't know if we're just miscommunicating here, but the point is it would NOT be random. There would be a static pre-decided definition like this:

Role 1: Item A
Role 2: Item B
Role 3: Item C

And so on. When we picked a random number, we got a corresponding role + item, but the question of which items go with which roles was pre-determined. So for example picking 2 would mean you got role 2 which comes by definition with item B.

But I mean, that's just a theory, and it's probably not important to dwell on that too long. Anyway as usual I hate no-lynches; I hate sitting around waiting for people to flip or for luck with roles, whatever they may be. If it's 5 town / 2 mafia, then no-lynch + mislynch is potentially still game over (4 players left, 2 of them scum). There are obvious hints at protection roles so we could get lucky, but then again there could be other hazards as well.

SpaceCowboy

@Foolio:

I don't know if we're just miscommunicating here, but the point is it would NOT be random. There would be a static pre-decided definition like this:

Role 1: Item A
Role 2: Item B
Role 3: Item C

And so on. When we picked a random number, we got a corresponding role + item, but the question of which items go with which roles was pre-determined. So for example picking 2 would mean you got role 2 which comes by definition with item B.

But I mean, that's just a theory, and it's probably not important to dwell on that too long. Anyway as usual I hate no-lynches; I hate sitting around waiting for people to flip or for luck with roles, whatever they may be. If it's 5 town / 2 mafia, then no-lynch + mislynch is potentially still game over (4 players left, 2 of them scum). There are obvious hints at protection roles so we could get lucky, but then again there could be other hazards as well.

We're not miscommunitacing. My point is that I reckon the mafia members don't know which roles correspond to which item when they picked them. I understand the item = role thing.

Foolio

Ah, okay then. So what's everyone else's opinion on a D1 lynch?

SpaceCowboy

I'm against it.
I don't feel like anyone has said anyting suspicious enough to justify a lynch and any information the flip would tell us would also be given by a mafia night kill, assuming they can do it.
Plus, the reduced number of players would only mean we get less maneuvering space during D2.

Jabberwok

From the sound of history, it seems like players might get more powers later in the game. If that's the case, we want to maximize the odds of the town getting those powers, which means keeping everyone alive right now.

Shuhan

If you wish for a time extension, please voice it with Vote: time extend

SpaceCowboy

For how long is there remaining? 1hour 30 minutes?

Vote Lynch: No Lynch
Just to make my opinion on this official.

BellisarioFaith

As far as lynching on Day 1 goes, the only times I'm unquestionably for it is if we have inactives, which is not the case here. Otherwise, it's a case-by-case thing. If somebody is acting very suspiciously and I'm getting a bad feeling about them, or if they slip information they're clearly not supposed to have if they're innocent, I'm in favor of lynching them, but otherwise, I'm not a big fan of lynching for the sake of lynching if there isn't anybody who really stands out as a viable suspect. Just statistics-wise, we have a higher chance of getting a Townie than a Mafia by doing that. There's also less for them to slip up on during Day 1, because if the Day/Night format works the usual way, and there are two Mafia, they probably wouldn't know who their scumbuddies are or know about the setup themselves, yet, either. (Or, if there are two separate scum teams, they also may not know that yet.)

Acting under the scenario that it's 5 Town/2 Maf: If we don't lynch today, and they successfully kill someone tonight, that would leave 4-2 tomorrow, which would be MYLO if the Mafia are also able to kill somebody on Night 2. If we mislynch today, and the Mafia also manages to kill somebody tonight, then it's 3-2, which is LYLO. It still probably means that we'll lose either way if we fuck up on Day 2, but having only 3 Townies alive would also mean that we'd have to have all three on the same page about who the Mafia is, and all of them present and voting for the same person; with 4-2, we have a little bit more leeway. And since it seems very likely that we have a heavily empowered Town, various Townie powers could turn the tide of the game for us depending on what happens during the Night; even if we mislynch on Day 2, we may not lose after Night 2 if we're able to use those powers wisely, whereas I think if we were 3-2 tomorrow and we mislynch, we lose instantly without going into the Night. (Correct me if I'm wrong on that.)

So for the time being, I'll go with
Vote: No Lynch
and keep checking (and joining in when I can) before the Day ends. If there's something that changes my mind, I'll change my vote.

Foolio

@Jabberwok:

From the sound of history, it seems like players might get more powers later in the game. If that's the case, we want to maximize the odds of the town getting those powers, which means keeping everyone alive right now.

I suppose you make a fair point from a historical perspective…but I can't say I'm happy with the weight you're giving some of these fairly large assumptions.

In any case if the day is running out I don't see a way to get a wagon going. It's either no-lynch now or vote to extend and then (probably) no-lynch anyway. With that in mind I'm not going to vote no-lynch or an extension unless someone makes a good case for extending. But for the record, if I had my choice I'd probably go after SUDK. Low activity (with advance warning, I know, but still) plus going straight into asking about the significance of items...

Shuhan is there anyone willing to help you mod? Like even just for vote counts, time warnings, and announcing day ends if needed.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

I asked Jabberwok the question because they were assuming one Mafia, and they were basing that on 5v2 being unfair without a lot of roles. I was curious as to what he thought the items did, and his answer that they assigned roles kinda confuses me.
Do you think there are a lot of roles or not? Or were you assuming most roles assigned weren't power roles?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

I'm in favour of a no-lynch. So far Foolio's the only one who openly has a potential target, so for most of us it'll either be bandwaggoning or guessing, which is not favourable to town.

Shuhan

Little less than 10 mins left

With 7 players, it takes 4 to lynch

No Lynch(2): BellsarioFaith, SpaceCowboy

Not voting(5): Foolio, Wooden-Giraffe, Jabberwok, SuDoKu, Shinobu Mahara

Foolio

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

I asked Jabberwok the question because they were assuming one Mafia, and they were basing that on 5v2 being unfair without a lot of roles. I was curious as to what he thought the items did, and his answer that they assigned roles kinda confuses me.
Do you think there are a lot of roles or not? Or were you assuming most roles assigned weren't power roles?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

I'm in favour of a no-lynch. So far Foolio's the only one who openly has a potential target, so for most of us it'll either be bandwaggoning or guessing, which is not favourable to town.

Well earlier there was some agreement as to not speculating too far about the items, and part of it is because guesses can indirectly reveal information about what you know/have and questioning can easily turn to fishing.

By the way it's not like I think you're super scummy, or I would have laid a vote. But for D1 yes you'd be my target.

Shuhan

Sorry, day ended at 5:00

You have 24 hours from then to send in any actions.

Shuhan

"Oh, you lot are just useless…" A voice wakes the players as the sun rises. They look around for the source of the voice and look upward. In all his glory Chester, just floating in the air. his reclined posture making him look like he's laying down mid air. The Clown looks down dismissively at the group. "I give you all such nice presents, and all that seems to happen is this." He raises a hand in the air and the body of BellsarioFaith, their skull cleaved floats in the air pitifully, like a puppet o strings. The sinister shopkeep flicks his fingers around, causing the corpse to dance a crude little ditty, Chester humming a tune in a bored tone.

"Can't be helped I guess, oh and I was going to open a nice store and all, but I guess that'll have to wait till tomorrow. For now, figure out who did this deed, blah blah blah..." He snaps his fingers and Faith's body explodes into viscera and blood, covering the players.

Amid the gore, a broken stethoscope lay on the ground. If the tag was read it would say. "The one who wields this medical device has the powers of a Quack Doctor. They could choose a target at night to protect from a night kill, however if the target is not targeted for a kill, then they would kill their target accidentally. They would win when all enemies to the tow were eliminated."

Disheartened, the players dance to a cheesy 80's song as they cleaned up the blood together and get back to work.

It is now Day2, you have 48 hours to lynch.

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Not voting(6): Foolio, Wooden-Giraffe, Jabberwok, SuDoKu, Shinobu Mahara, SpaceCowboy

SpaceCowboy

Hum, well, I'm actually not sad with the outcome (sorry Faith). Too much risk involved, especially in a small set-up.

Assuming everyone has some sort of ability given by the items, I reckon this was probably amongst the worse.

@SUDK: Why do you think Faith was targetted?

@Jabberwok: "oh and I was going to open a nice store and all, but I guess that'll have to wait till tomorrow"
What do you make of this sentence?

@Foolio: You mentioned SUDK low activity as a reason to make her a possible lynchee (not even sure this word exists), but is her activity during D1 so low when compared to Faith´s or Wooden's?

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

"Too much risk involved, especially in a small set-up." - Risk involved with her ability.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

I don't think Faith was targeted for any specific reason. She was probably chosen at random, as she said nothing noteworthy on Day 1. The most noteworthy thing was mentioning that it was 'likely' a power-heavy town, while we were all speculating at best. Nothing much to go off of, though.

Jabberwok

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

I don't think Faith was targeted for any specific reason. She was probably chosen at random, as she said nothing noteworthy on Day 1. The most noteworthy thing was mentioning that it was 'likely' a power-heavy town, while we were all speculating at best. Nothing much to go off of, though.

I suppose that's as likely a reason as any. Faith's level of activity didn't seem especially high or low.

@SpaceCowboy:

@Jabberwok: "oh and I was going to open a nice store and all, but I guess that'll have to wait till tomorrow"
What do you make of this sentence?

Probably that we'll have the opportunity to pick up some new abilities tomorrow. When I complained about my vanilla Townie roll, Shuhan seemed to imply that I might not be stuck powerless forever. I wasn't sure what that meant until y'all mentioned Chester's toy shop yesterday, and that comment today seems to confirm it.

SpaceCowboy

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

I don't think Faith was targeted for any specific reason. She was probably chosen at random, as she said nothing noteworthy on Day 1. The most noteworthy thing was mentioning that it was 'likely' a power-heavy town, while we were all speculating at best. Nothing much to go off of, though.

Very well. How do you analyze her ability in the context of this game's small set-up?

@Jabberwok:

When I complained about my vanilla Townie roll, Shuhan seemed to imply that I might not be stuck powerless forever. I wasn't sure what that meant until y'all mentioned Chester's toy shop yesterday, and that comment today seems to confirm it.

Wait, what?

Foolio

@SpaceCowboy:

Hum, well, I'm actually not sad with the outcome (sorry Faith). Too much risk involved, especially in a small set-up.

Yes, it's a risky ability, but I'm not quite as okay with the situation as you. It's a powerful trump card if things get dire. For example she could have targeted someone suspicious to basically auto-kill them. And aside from that it makes me more worried that there are other double-edged items out there. Some of them have ominous descriptions.

@SpaceCowboy:

@Foolio: You mentioned SUDK low activity as a reason to make her a possible lynchee (not even sure this word exists), but is her activity during D1 so low when compared to Faith´s or Wooden's?

I mean, not hugely. It was low activity overall but SUDK's two posts were short, with the promise of difficulty being active in the days to come. And Faith for example at least had some walls of text, Wooden at least had some analysis of substance and a stance on lynching. SUDK's focus on items was the other deciding factor.

@Jabberwok:

robably that we'll have the opportunity to pick up some new abilities tomorrow. When I complained about my vanilla Townie roll, Shuhan seemed to imply that I might not be stuck powerless forever. I wasn't sure what that meant until y'all mentioned Chester's toy shop yesterday, and that comment today seems to confirm it.

The logical assumption is that each of the 7 players got one of the 7 items. Your casual vanilla claim, which is WTF in and of itself, also contradicts this assumption. Unless you got an item that literally does nothing. Now I'm really frustrated because I want you to explain yourself and your reasons, but that would force even more discussion of items and I thought it would benefit us not to lay all the cards out so early. But I'm not sure what the alternative is. Because since Day 1 you bring up this 3rd party notion, now you up and claim, and bring attention to Chester's flavor text (at least as of now). If I didn't know any better I'd say you're trying to get yourself lynched.

Shinobu Mahara

Sorry for the late activity, had a couple drinks last night. Anyways, poor Faith. First day kills are always so hard to determine, but chances are it was chosen at random.
I personally dont think that Faith was that inactive considering she wrote a hell of a lot while she was around. Which i guess now being gone, everyone will need to do the very same.

My thoughts on possibly getting new abilities tomorrow scares me, cause that would only make things so much more difficult. But as Foolio said talking extensively into items before receiving them would be pointless.

Wooden_Giraffe

Well that’s a tricky ability. Would have been more useful with a larger number of players.
Just got home from my work trip and I’m mostly just checking in before I collapse in bed. A few highlights with more sometime tomorrow afternoon.
-A Lynch should definitely happen today, no one is really all that inactoce(I might be the chiefest sinner there), so we’ll have plenty of dialogue to work off of. Even more so if we keep the conversation going. Something to note, however, is that if there are 2 mafia then we’re basically at mislynch and lose.
-I’d have no issues putting a Lynch vote down right now on Jabs after his soft claim, but there is still lots of time in the day and enough people have called him out on it that he should respond.
-Chester is taking his sweet sinister time getting us the shop, I almost wonder if it’ll be coming at all.

Foolio

@Shinobu:

Sorry for the late activity, had a couple drinks last night. Anyways, poor Faith. First day kills are always so hard to determine, but chances are it was chosen at random.
I personally dont think that Faith was that inactive considering she wrote a hell of a lot while she was around. Which i guess now being gone, everyone will need to do the very same.

My thoughts on possibly getting new abilities tomorrow scares me, cause that would only make things so much more difficult. But as Foolio said talking extensively into items before receiving them would be pointless.

I didn't say getting into items would be pointless, but a potential benefit to the mafia. And new abilities themselves are only scary if the mafia also gets them; the real pain is the chaos involved because I like to be able to consider a known set of parameters and scum hunt accordingly… sudden wrenches thrown in mid-game disrupt my ability to effectively strategize and reduces things more to luck or obvious slips/behavior.

Shinobu, what do you think we should do today? Any hunches or suspects? Yesterday you acted a bit clueless regarding the question asked of you, and you never even took a stance on whether to go for a lynch.

Jabberwok

@Foolio:

The logical assumption is that each of the 7 players got one of the 7 items. Your casual vanilla claim, which is WTF in and of itself, also contradicts this assumption. Unless you got an item that literally does nothing. Now I'm really frustrated because I want you to explain yourself and your reasons, but that would force even more discussion of items and I thought it would benefit us not to lay all the cards out so early. But I'm not sure what the alternative is. Because since Day 1 you bring up this 3rd party notion, now you up and claim, and bring attention to Chester's flavor text (at least as of now). If I didn't know any better I'd say you're trying to get yourself lynched.

My item did indeed do literally nothing. I suppose this means I can assume you and several other people's items actually have some ability attached. Lucky me.

Claiming seems fairly inconsequential to me. Nobody wants to seem like they have a power role since that makes them a Night Kill target. Unless they have a specific ability like Bomb, there's no point in trying to get Night Killed.

Regarding the possibility of a third party, it's all just conjecture. As we discussed previously, 2 mafia and 5 town means MYLO on Day 2, which seems rather poorly balanced. Since many people, including yourself, thought 6 town and 1 mafia was also unfair, I suggested the possibility of a 5/1/1 as an alternative. Though since Faith was a Quack Doctor with the possibility of killing someone, I'm now thinking that 5/1/1 seems also unlikely. And since Chester seems interested in getting us to Day 3 for his shop, I'd say 6 vs 1 is most likely, balanced by the possibility that the power roles of the Town are unreliable ones.

Flavor text is really all I have to go on at this point. It seems reasonable to pick up as many context clues as possible when there are few other leads.

Shinobu Mahara

@Foolio:

I didn't say getting into items would be pointless, but a potential benefit to the mafia. And new abilities themselves are only scary if the mafia also gets them; the real pain is the chaos involved because I like to be able to consider a known set of parameters and scum hunt accordingly… sudden wrenches thrown in mid-game disrupt my ability to effectively strategize and reduces things more to luck or obvious slips/behavior.

Shinobu, what do you think we should do today? Any hunches or suspects? Yesterday you acted a bit clueless regarding the question asked of you, and you never even took a stance on whether to go for a lynch.

What do i think we should do today, is wait until we have something more substantial. As for hunches or suspects, I have literally none. Sure I dont like any given player really trying to claim a certain role first day.
As anybody at that point can/most likely will say that they are vanilla town. Almost anyone can say it, with little to no repercussions because they are either honest, its first day, or its the best bluff of their life.
I'd probably more inclined to believe that Jabberwok may not have even used his item. Sure, he claims his power did nothing. But what if they just straight up didnt use it. Only speculation at this point, but its possible.
Frankly anybody could have done the very same thing, so jabberwok don't feel singled out.
It is simply you are the only one at this point that has actively talked about the supposed use of an item.

Personally i am against actively going for a lynch within the first 2 days, cause we dont exactly have enough facts to pick a certain vote. To me, going to the effort of voting for a no lynch is wasted time for all those who do so.
Either way first day usually will usually end in a no lynch at the end of D1 anyway.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

@Wooden_Giraffe:

Well that’s a tricky ability. Would have been more useful with a larger number of players.
Just got home from my work trip and I’m mostly just checking in before I collapse in bed. A few highlights with more sometime tomorrow afternoon.
-A Lynch should definitely happen today, no one is really all that inactoce(I might be the chiefest sinner there), so we’ll have plenty of dialogue to work off of. Even more so if we keep the conversation going. Something to note, however, is that if there are 2 mafia then we’re basically at mislynch and lose.
-I’d have no issues putting a Lynch vote down right now on Jabs after his soft claim, but there is still lots of time in the day and enough people have called him out on it that he should respond.
-Chester is taking his sweet sinister time getting us the shop, I almost wonder if it’ll be coming at all.

2 thoughts on this: A lynch today would go against what I personally think will benefit town. As if it is more outnumbered terms, actively seeking a lynch would have more chances in resulting in a dead member of town, which is always gonna be a bad thing.
Jabs claim albeit soft, just seemed too easy in my opinion. He should respond, but considering his claim was so soft, hes not going to be able to really defend/explain something that may not have gone in depth to start with.

Foolio

@Jabberwok:

My item did indeed do literally nothing. I suppose this means I can assume you and several other people's items actually have some ability attached. Lucky me.

Claiming seems fairly inconsequential to me. Nobody wants to seem like they have a power role since that makes them a Night Kill target. Unless they have a specific ability like Bomb, there's no point in trying to get Night Killed.

Uhh. Claiming is pretty consequential. You know who would typically want to seem like they have a power role / put a target on their back? Vanilla townies… the most expendable ones.

@Shinobu:

What do i think we should do today, is wait until we have something more substantial. As for hunches or suspects, I have literally none. Sure I dont like any given player really trying to claim a certain role first day.
As anybody at that point can/most likely will say that they are vanilla town. Almost anyone can say it, with little to no repercussions because they are either honest, its first day, or its the best bluff of their life.
I'd probably more inclined to believe that Jabberwok may not have even used his item. Sure, he claims his power did nothing. But what if they just straight up didnt use it. Only speculation at this point, but its possible.
Frankly anybody could have done the very same thing, so jabberwok don't feel singled out.
It is simply you are the only one at this point that has actively talked about the supposed use of an item.

Personally i am against actively going for a lynch within the first 2 days, cause we dont exactly have enough facts to pick a certain vote. To me, going to the effort of voting for a no lynch is wasted time for all those who do so.
Either way first day usually will usually end in a no lynch at the end of D1 anyway.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

2 thoughts on this: A lynch today would go against what I personally think will benefit town. As if it is more outnumbered terms, actively seeking a lynch would have more chances in resulting in a dead member of town, which is always gonna be a bad thing.
Jabs claim albeit soft, just seemed too easy in my opinion. He should respond, but considering his claim was so soft, hes not going to be able to really defend/explain something that may not have gone in depth to start with.

Huh? You have no leads and you want to solve that by… doing nothing? Sitting around, waiting for the day to end, and hoping we get info from abilities? What kind of game plan is that? It goes against everything Mafia stands for. And this isn't your first rodeo either.

I'm so confused about what's going on so far today. Two people I'd already be totally comfortable with laying a vote against. But for now, I'd like to hear what everyone else has to say about these developments.

Foolio

Also why are people calling Jabberwok's claim a "soft claim?" What's soft about it? He literally stated he was a Vanilla Townie. We don't know what his item is (and I don't want to know) but that's irrelevant if his claim is that it does nothing.

Jabberwok

@Foolio:

Uhh. Claiming is pretty consequential. You know who would typically want to seem like they have a power role / put a target on their back? Vanilla townies… the most expendable ones.

Right, and people with power roles want to seem vanilla. So the mafia might expect the players seeming most vanilla to be worthy targets and those acting particularly assertive to be the power role ones. And now we've entered a lovely little logic loop with both sides endlessly hypothesizing about the other's assumptions.

I've claimed vanilla Town. As Shinobu explained, pretty much everyone claims vanilla Town by default. I've just being especially explicit about it.

Regarding Lynch or No Lynch, I think we should consider lynching if people think there's only one Mafia and no lynching if you all think there's two. With two mafia, a mislynch today means we probably lose tonight. A no lynch would mean we'd have another night to hopefully collect data. If there's only one mafia, taking more shots makes sense.

Shinobu Mahara

Indeed, there a no real leads in this situation. Not from my standpoint at least. Sure, it might look like im sitting on my @ss and not doing anything about it.
Might not be my first rodeo, but "going against everything mafia stand for" at this point sounds like a pretty solid plan. The information we get out of people using their abilities will tell us more.
And im not prepared to eliminate/ help towards eliminating a fellow town just for the sake of making it..

A. Play faster than it already will be
B. Feel like im helping the cause when in fact we just killed an innocent
C. Or in the very small chance that we do put the pin in the right donkey (which is the only thing i would be okay with out of these options.)

Its not the Fact that Jabs claim was soft. He simply didnt go to much of an effort to reveal his possible roll. I am still inclined to believe that they still havent used their item. As it is just as likely as Jab being honest.
It might be irrelevant to his part in all of this, but considering we dont really know all that much at this point, if anything at all other than Faith was a doctor and killed throughout the night.
It would seem me and Wooden, although want to believe the fact that he is in fact town. Personally i think his claim seemed more in passing. But at this stage, I dont see what he said as a big thing.

Hopefully you'll see my point of view, instead of what seems to be an aggressive play style. 2 vote choices this early worries me. But you know, thats just me.

Foolio

@Jabberwok:

Right, and people with power roles want to seem vanilla. So the mafia might expect the players seeming most vanilla to be worthy targets and those acting particularly assertive to be the power role ones. And now we've entered a lovely little logic loop with both sides endlessly hypothesizing about the other's assumptions.

Dude that's all fine and well except I'm directly refuting two concrete and incorrect statements you made:

@Jabberwok:

Claiming seems fairly inconsequential to me.

@Jabberwok:

Nobody wants to seem like they have a power role since that makes them a Night Kill target. Unless they have a specific ability like Bomb, there's no point in trying to get Night Killed.

Claiming and the discussions that follow can have a huge impact on the game, and there are reasons to paint a target on your own back. But sure, let's just explain that the opposite scenario can also exist, call it a logic loop and make it seem like I don't have a point?

@Jabberwok:

Regarding Lynch or No Lynch, I think we should consider lynching if people think there's only one Mafia and no lynching if you all think there's two. With two mafia, a mislynch today means we probably lose tonight. A no lynch would mean we'd have another night to hopefully collect data. If there's only one mafia, taking more shots makes sense.

Wait, now you're ALSO advocating a no-lynch today? You say if "people" think, which does seem to be the current consensus after Faith's flip. What do YOU think?

Vote Lynch: Jabberwok

@Shinobu:

Indeed, there a no real leads in this situation. Not from my standpoint at least. Sure, it might look like im sitting on my @ss and not doing anything about it.
Might not be my first rodeo, but "going against everything mafia stand for" at this point sounds like a pretty solid plan. The information we get out of people using their abilities will tell us more.
And im not prepared to eliminate/ help towards eliminating a fellow town just for the sake of making it..

A. Play faster than it already will be
B. Feel like im helping the cause when in fact we just killed an innocent
C. Or in the very small chance that we do put the pin in the right donkey (which is the only thing i would be okay with out of these options.)

Its not the Fact that Jabs claim was soft. He simply didnt go to much of an effort to reveal his possible roll. I am still inclined to believe that they still havent used their item. As it is just as likely as Jab being honest.
It might be irrelevant to his part in all of this, but considering we dont really know all that much at this point, if anything at all other than Faith was a doctor and killed throughout the night.
It would seem me and Wooden, although want to believe the fact that he is in fact town. Personally i think his claim seemed more in passing. But at this stage, I dont see what he said as a big thing.

Hopefully you'll see my point of view, instead of what seems to be an aggressive play style. 2 vote choices this early worries me. But you know, thats just me.

Even if for some reason I can't comprehend you don't want to lynch, don't twiddle your thumbs. Ask questions. Get players to take stances, provide observations. Active conversation that we can look back on later to maybe actually benefit from flips. Otherwise you're next in line after Jabberwok on my list.

Foolio

Well I just re-read the day and never mind, there was less talk about mafia numbers than I thought. Jabberwok, you said the most likely to you right now was 6 town / 1 scum, are you still standing by that? If so, you should be advocating a lynch. I myself personally think a single scum is a highly unlikely scenario based on numbers. Risky roles aren't enough of a disadvantage unless they actively sabotage the town.

Shinobu Mahara

@Foolio:

Even if for some reason I can't comprehend you don't want to lynch, don't twiddle your thumbs. Ask questions. Get players to take stances, provide observations. Active conversation that we can look back on later to maybe actually benefit from flips. Otherwise you're next in line after Jabberwok on my list.

You've been saying the same damn thing since the first game i was involved in xD
As much as i dont like the possible threat of me being next, i'm not exactly going to go out of my way to trying to hold something to that. Considering my behaviour can easily be changed, im just not exactly sure what questions to exactly ask.

Something I can do however is; Giving information from what i think, to start possible conversation later.
Looking back on the things ive said earlier about not want to screw up a lynch and your aggressive play style, is already showing you my stance and observation. Getting other players to take their stand is a little bit more difficult.
Im sure that i am probably not the only one with that stand either. And seem to be less in the firing line than i am. But with time I can change that I guess.
Being over confident in what you believe in, can get you killed my man.

I think its likely its 2 v 5, I never really fully considered the idea of a 3rd party, but at this point i would like to think that possibility is out.

SpaceCowboy

@Wooden_Giraffe:

-I’dhave no issues putting a Lynch vote down right now on Jabs after hissoft claim, but there is still lots of time in the day and enoughpeople have called him out on it that he shouldrespond.

@Woody: Howdo you read Jabber's claim?

@ShinobuMahara:

Asanybody at that point can/most likely will say that they are vanillatown. Almost anyone can say it, with little to no repercussionsbecause they are either honest, its first day, or its the best bluffof their life.
I'dprobably more inclined to believe that Jabberwok may not have evenused his item. Sure, he claims his power did nothing. But what ifthey just straight up didnt use it. Only speculation at this point,but its possible.

@Shinobu: I understand that Jabber used the expression “Myitem did indeed do literally nothing”,but why are you coming up with so many scenarios about him eitherusing it or not using it?
Doyou think the mod would have given him an item without anyexplanation and just tell him “Yeah, you have to use this in orderto find out of it works or not, but I’m also not telling you whatit will do if it works.”
Why do you think he would use any item on N1?

@Foolio:

Uhh.Claiming is pretty consequential. You know who would typically wantto seem like they have a power role / put a target on their back?Vanilla townies… the most expendable ones.

@Jabberwok:

Right,and people with power roles want to seem vanilla. So the mafia mightexpect the players seeming most vanilla to be worthy targets andthose acting particularly assertive to be the power role ones. Andnow we've entered a lovely little logic loop with both sidesendlessly hypothesizing about the other's assumptions.

**@Jabber:**Let me put it this way:
Myproblem isn’t the vanilla claim, but the way and the timing of it.

Therewas a big chance that the mafia believed that every item gave anability, which should put every townie at roughly the same level ontheir priority scale, which increased the chances of potentialvanilla getting lynched, which, as Foolio said, is positive sincethey are “expendable”.
Youforced him or them to be extra careful about who to lynch with theirnew data. Especially when it comes to you. Andespecially since we have 0 idea about what sort of abilities theymight have received.

Itwas just… reckless. It felt like you gave away a trump card.

@Jabberwok:

RegardingLynch or No Lynch, I think we should consider lynching if peoplethink there's only one Mafia and no lynching if you all think there'stwo.

@Jabber: Andsince we have no grounds to make a conclusive statement about thenumber of mafia, I assume what you’re saying is that we shouldn’tlynch anyone today?

@Foolio:

Wait, now you're ALSO advocating a no-lynch today? You say if"people" think, which does seem to be the current consensusafter Faith's flip. What do YOU think?

VoteLynch: Jabberwok

@Foolio:

WellI just re-read the day and never mind, there was less talk aboutmafia numbers than I thought. Jabberwok, you said the most likely toyou right now was 6 town / 1 scum, are you still standing by that? Ifso, you should be advocating a lynch. I myself personally think asingle scum is a highly unlikely scenario based on numbers. Riskyroles aren't enough of a disadvantage unless they actively sabotagethe town.

Wedidn’t lynch anyone on D1 and Chester indeed stated that he expectsto open the store on D3.
Takinginto account both of these factors, as well as the total number ofplayers and all the hypothesis of the game being over on D3 if wemyslynch today and the fact that Faith’s power could potentiallybackfire, do you still thinkthat 2 mafia is the most likely scenario?

Also,and taking into account that we’re pretty much in LyLo is 2 mafiais true, do you still want to push for a lynch?

Shuhan

With 6 players left, it takes 4 to lynch

Jabberwok(1): Foolio

Not voting(5): Wooden-Giraffe, Jabberwok, SuDoKu, Shinobu Mahara, SpaceCowboy

Jabberwok

@Foolio:

Dude that's all fine and well except I'm directly refuting two concrete and incorrect statements you made:

Claiming and the discussions that follow can have a huge impact on the game, and there are reasons to paint a target on your own back. But sure, let's just explain that the opposite scenario can also exist, call it a logic loop and make it seem like I don't have a point?

I can understand your frustration even if I disagree with it. It all depends on how the mafia interprets my statement though, doesn't it? My default assumption is that everyone claims vanilla, which means that power role players and vanillas-faking-power-roles will both claim vanilla. You might see a target, but judging by reactions other people don't find it as serious.

If nothing else, it's caused a lot of discussion. And that benefits the town, no?
@SpaceCowboy:

**@Jabber:**Let me put it this way:
Myproblem isn’t the vanilla claim, but the way and the timing of it.

Therewas a big chance that the mafia believed that every item gave anability, which should put every townie at roughly the same level ontheir priority scale, which increased the chances of potentialvanilla getting lynched, which, as Foolio said, is positive sincethey are “expendable”.
Youforced him or them to be extra careful about who to lynch with theirnew data. Especially when it comes to you. Andespecially since we have 0 idea about what sort of abilities theymight have received.

Itwas just… reckless. It felt like you gave away a trump card.

I do see your point here though. I was looking at things from a different perspective and didn't consider the item aspect. It still seems to me that they were primarily a simple way of randomly distributing roles without bias. But I can definitely respect you thinking I've done something wrong.

@SpaceCowboy:

@Jabber: Andsince we have no grounds to make a conclusive statement about thenumber of mafia, I assume what you’re saying is that we shouldn’tlynch anyone today?

I'm fairly confident in thinking that there's only one mafia, which means it's somewhat more advantageous to push for a lynch today. So I think we should do that.

I'd originally been suspicious of Shinobu's advocating for inaction, but between seeing further explanation and defending me I'm feeling less confident there.

I'd really like to here more from SuDK and Wooden since they've each only posted once today. Wooden in particular hasn't posted in the last 14 hours with no real explanation for his inactivity this morning.

If the majority of the town is still worried about the possibility of two mafia (very unlikely imo), I'm okay not lynching today. We probably should eliminate someone today, but the difference is marginal and we'll still have one mislynch total before MYLO either way.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

Side note, Space, what the heck is going on with your fonts? It makes you a pain in the ass to quote.

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

Don't have much time, so here's some quick thoughts.

I recall Jabberwock mentioning yesterday that there was a "lack of power roles". Given his announcement of him being a vanilla town, I'm gonna say it's entirely probably that he thought there weren't many power roles based on his own position.

Personally, given Faith's role, a lone Mafia sounds right to me. This is ignoring the possibility of a third party, though not discounting it. If most roles are similar to Faith's, then it's going to be hard for the town not to kill themselves. Being outnumbered AND having a lot of time bombs like that seems really risky. I'm in the single Mafia boat now.

SpaceCowboy

@Jabberwok:

Side note, Space, what the heck is going on with your fonts? It makes you a pain in the ass to quote.

Sorry about that. I was copy pasting stuff to a libreoffice blank page for better organization and it ended up coming like that. I'll be careful.

@Jabberwok:

I'm fairly confident in thinking that there's only one mafia, which means it's somewhat more advantageous to push for a lynch today. So I think we should do that.

@Jabber: Well, right now you are the only person with a vote on his head.
I know he hasn't written a lot, but what's your view on Woddy saying he would be fine with a vote on you, even if he did say he would wait for you to reply first.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

1- I recall Jabberwock mentioning yesterday that there was a "lack of power roles". Given his announcement of him being a vanilla town, I'm gonna say it's entirely probably that he thought there weren't many power roles based on his own position.

2- Personally, given Faith's role, a lone Mafia sounds right to me. This is ignoring the possibility of a third party, though not discounting it. If most roles are similar to Faith's, then it's going to be hard for the town not to kill themselves. Being outnumbered AND having a lot of time bombs like that seems really risky. I'm in the single Mafia boat now.

@SUDK 1- I didn´t find that.

2- So how do you feel we should act today if you believe there's only one mafia?

SomebodyUDon'tKnow

@Jabberwok:

Well that's good to know. Anyways, unless there's a buttload of power roles I still think two Mafia is too many.This seems to me that he's saying that there aren't many power roles, as he's thinking there to only be one Mafia.
I seem to have misremembered the direct quote, though, so my bad on that one.

Jabberwok

@SpaceCowboy:

@Jabber: Well, right now you are the only person with a vote on his head.
I know he hasn't written a lot, but what's your view on Woddy saying he would be fine with a vote on you, even if he did say he would wait for you to reply first.

I'm not sure how much to read into it. I kind of assume he was on the same train of thought as Foolio, but the jump to agree to lynch felt a bit quick. I'd definitely like to see a follow-up post since we've discussed a fair bit since then.

–- Update From New Post Merge ---

@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:

This seems to me that he's saying that there aren't many power roles, as he's thinking there to only be one Mafia.
I seem to have misremembered the direct quote, though, so my bad on that one.

It's kind of splitting straws, but I definitely didn't mean to imply that there weren't many power roles. Just that the best way to balance having two mafia would be to give everyone power roles.

I'd also failed to consider that some of those roles might have unreliable powers, which still leaves the possibility of most people having powers on the table.