^Of course, but what are the chances? More than likely we'll be lynching a Townie and then Mafia gets an extra kill. Don't want it.
One Piece Mafia: Part III
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How do you even gauge "slipping up" on Day 1?
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I'm advocating a No Lynch simply because we have one and unless someone DOES slip (though thats unlikely), Id be willing to just not kill anyone.
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@Galaxy: I've seen Day 1 slip ups before, but they are rare.
@Kitsune: I know, or at least I'm assuming, that you meant it as a joke, but advocating a no lynch while you have an active vote is still strange.
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hi all i woken up minutes ago
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Here's my question to people advocating a no-lynch: how will Day 2 be different? It's an open no-role setup, so it's not like stalling is going to help us gather information in any way. Everyone is saying "except the unlikely case of a slip-up" but again, what makes that unique to the first day? The only way to ruffle feathers and look for suspicious behavior is to scum hunt, and there will be no evidence to even look back upon in retrospect if we just twiddle our thumbs and agree to no-lynch. In this setup all we have is our wits; there is no room for laziness.
So in a sense I feel like rather than a Day 1 lynch being considered handing the mafia a free kill, it's more like no-lynching can be considered equivalent to handing the scum a free Night 0 kill (because effectively it's like the game doesn't even start until Day 2). At least if we lynch we get a wagon, we get to observe votes, we get to observe pressure, and as a bonus we have a 20% chance to actually get a mafia.
Well, let me revise that a bit. Categorically being in favor of a no-lynch is what's harmful. It's a lazy resignation. A lynch may or may not happen, but activity is key.
Hey Shuhan, how long is the day anyhow? 24 hours? 48 hours?
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24
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Welcome firelord, I know you're kind of new. But what's your opinion on the matter at hand? Lynch or no lynch today?
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I do remember Shuhan mentioning a first day of 24 hours and the rest 48, but I just wanted confirmation since we didn't get any official word once the game started.
And I'd actually like EVERYONE to weigh in on the issue of lynching or not today, if you haven't already done so.
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depends on situation
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I don't think I officially stated my opinion so I'll do that now.
Normally I'm all for no lynches on Day 1, but that's to give an empowered town a night to do their thing. With this setup the only powers at the town's disposal are discussion and actual voting. So I'm for a lynch today.
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Here's my question to people advocating a no-lynch: how will Day 2 be different? It's an open no-role setup, so it's not like stalling is going to help us gather information in any way. Everyone is saying "except the unlikely case of a slip-up" but again, what makes that unique to the first day? The only way to ruffle feathers and look for suspicious behavior is to scum hunt, and there will be no evidence to even look back upon in retrospect if we just twiddle our thumbs and agree to no-lynch. In this setup all we have is our wits; there is no room for laziness.
Stalling at least gives us the advantage of having a larger majority, and therefore one extra day to scum hunt. I think plenty of evidence can be drawn from this first day, even without a proper lynch.
So in a sense I feel like rather than a Day 1 lynch being considered handing the mafia a free kill, it's more like no-lynching can be considered equivalent to handing the scum a free Night 0 kill (because effectively it's like the game doesn't even start until Day 2). At least if we lynch we get a wagon, we get to observe votes, we get to observe pressure,
But if someone were to flip town, we'd be giving the mafia 2 kills instead of just 1. A no lynch ensures that the mafia doesn't get one step closer to victory.
The only real positive here is getting to see voting behavior… but that isn't always a measure of being a mafia or not. We could easily still use that data without achieving a full lynch, and I think that's the best possible outcome.
and as a bonus we have a 20% chance to actually get a mafia.
But a 80% chance of getting a townie. Those aren't exactly good odds.
A lynch may or may not happen, but activity is key.
So you do want to only lynch if there's somebody of very low/nonexistent activity? If so, I can agree with that. They won't be much help anyways in that case.
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Welp, I don't know how that tag at the top broke, but no editing allowed.
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@Galaxy:
Stalling at least gives us the advantage of having a larger majority, and therefore one extra day to scum hunt. I think plenty of evidence can be drawn from this first day, even without a proper lynch.
But if someone were to flip town, we'd be giving the mafia 2 kills instead of just 1. A no lynch ensures that the mafia doesn't get one step closer to victory.
The only real positive here is getting to see voting behavior… but that isn't always a measure of being a mafia or not. We could easily still use that data without achieving a full lynch, and I think that's the best possible outcome.
But a 80% chance of getting a townie. Those aren't exactly good odds.
But unless you can answer my question about what will change Day 2, all of the negatives you just listed will repeat tomorrow. So it won't just be (possibly) having two townies die at the start, it will be like having a townie die before the game and THEN (possibly) two townies dying on the first "real" day where we are allowing ourselves the chance to actually go for a lynch.
@Galaxy:
So you do want to only lynch if there's somebody of very low/nonexistent activity? If so, I can agree with that. They won't be much help anyways in that case.
No. What I'm saying is no matter what each of us thinks is best, we have to be active. Keep discussion going, suspect people, etc. We have to be creating as much opportunity for scum hunting as possible, regardless of whether or not any one person thinks we should lynch yet.
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Voting and scum hunting don't necessarily have to end in lynches. Since it is day 1 we have the luxury of not being pressured into lynching. So if we can't find someone that 6 of us agree on then we don't have to lynch. Whereas on future days we may feel pressure to force a lynch, even when some of us begrudgingly switch to someone who isn't our first choice.
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i feel tonight foolio or an inactive townie dies
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But unless you can answer my question about what will change Day 2, all of the negatives you just listed will repeat tomorrow.
We'll be able to possibly narrow down suspects based on who the mafia kills tonight, unless that individual was completely inactive. But in that case, I fully support a town lynch for that potential target anyways.
Here's an example of a potential lead if no lynch happens though. If the mafia were to kill me tomorrow, the town gets a lead that points towards the mafia team not supporting the no lynch option, since it doesn't help their game one bit.
So it won't just be (possibly) having two townies die at the start, it will be like having a townie die before the game and THEN (possibly) two townies dying on the first "real" day where we are allowing ourselves the chance to actually go for a lynch.
Yeah, but then it could potentially lead to 4 townies being lost if we mess up tomorrow's lynch as well. The mafia's chance of winning gets even higher then.
I just don't see the advantage in lynching if we don't at least have a reason to do so (inactivity).
No. What I'm saying is no matter what each of us thinks is best, we have to be active. Keep discussion going, suspect people, etc. We have to be creating as much opportunity for scum hunting as possible, regardless of whether or not any one person thinks we should lynch yet.
Activity is vital, yeah. But what opportunities can you possibly expect to come out today? Unless somebody outright starts lynching like a madman, or calling for random lynches like a madman, I don't see a lead.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
i feel tonight foolio
What's your reasoning for this?
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its best thing to do for mafia in most previous games this happend
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its best thing to do for mafia in most previous games this happend
It's not a good idea to metagame though. Past games hardly matter.
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im trying hard to metagame but just cant
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I already gave my reasoning on why I advocated for a no-lynch Today but that doesn't mean people can't discuss, suspect, and scum hunt by ruffling some feathers. I just don't want to force the risk of lynching a Townie because people felt they "had to lynch somebody on Day 1". Unless that lynch is based off of something besides a gut feeling or a hunch I don't think the risk is worth it.
It really depends on if you want to play the safe game of having 1 less suspect tomorrow or put in a little more risk with the higher probability of having 2 dead Town from which to narrow down the scum.
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are we gonna have items in this game ?
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^I doubt it. ShuShu said "barebone" setup.
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@Galaxy:
Here's an example of a potential lead if no lynch happens though. If the mafia were to kill me tomorrow, the town gets a lead that points towards the mafia team not supporting the no lynch option, since it doesn't help their game one bit.
This is a really weird statement to me because you're giving a theoretical scenario (you getting lynched) but then also providing your own commentary for why it would happen / what it would mean. I am way more wary of people who just go with the flow without drawing attention. You think they'd rather aggressively push for Day 1 blood and draw attention? Plus why would they care about anyone's Day 1 lynch stance after Day 1 is already over? It's just a really… odd theoretical. Not to mention that such simplistic associations are the type of thing scum might WANT people to think.
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Sorry, I meant the theoretical scenario of you getting mafia killed.
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This is a really weird statement to me because you're giving a theoretical scenario (you getting lynched) but then also providing your own commentary for why it would happen / what it would mean. I am way more wary of people who just go with the flow without drawing attention.
It was just a scenario to give us food for thought. I could provide one for almost any of the current participants if I wanted to, but I went with that one in order to not paint anybody else in a negative light.
It's certainly possible that I could be killed to frame someone else who was aggressive with me during the day, or for some metagame reason, or for no real reason at all. But in any scenario like that, whether it be me or you or anybody, it gives the town the opportunity to investigate the reason for death, rather than the town panicking, refusing to lynch, or being unable to reach a consensus. That just leads to a undesirable town that gives the mafia a further advantage.
You think they'd rather aggressively push for Day 1 blood and draw attention?
Different Mafia teams play in different ways. They could always regulate one member to be aggressive in the hopes that the other member seems like they're town by a wide margin. That'd be "safe" for them, since it's not like either mafia member needs to worry about being identified as mafia in the middle of the night by a town role.
Alternatively, it could be a "slip up" mafia team that messes up and draws attention to themselves.
Plus why would they care about anyone's Day 1 lynch stance after Day 1 is already over? It's just a really… odd theoretical.
In that scenario, it would be for them to get rid of anybody that would endanger their chances of winning the game. They could easily assume that I might possibly push for no lynch on future days. It's all a matter of the individual mafia player's way of playing in that sense.
Not to mention that such simplistic associations are the type of thing scum might WANT people to think.
I agree. They could lynch anybody to frame it a certain way and get things to go their way. There's no way to tell 100% what their actual motive was, but at least we can look at each death from a hypothetical standpoint in order to at least cause a slip up or two.
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@Galaxy: I've seen Day 1 slip ups before, but they are rare.
Missed this earlier.
What kind of slip up happens that paints the person as definite mafia on Day 1? Power giveaway?
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I still really don't get your logic about scum being afraid of no-lynches (they can't lose if there are no lynches…) but I'll dismiss it for now as just a weird example. Still, I hope you're not saying the only way the town can make progress is by looking at flips.
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I still really don't get your logic about scum being afraid of no-lynches
A lynch for them guarantees them being closer to victory and rid of one of their enemies.. It's less about being afraid, and more about them trying to win the game as soon as they can. The more days that pass, the more chances the town has to discuss and think about the potential for those 2 players to be members of the mafia.
(they can't lose if there are no lynches…)
I highly doubt a mafia team would refrain from killing in the night if there was a no lynch. The game would be put into limbo in that case, and town would still have the advantage of more days to narrow down candidates based on certain factors.
Still, I hope you're not saying the only way the town can make progress is by looking at flips.
That's not the only way, but it's definitely going to be one of the bigger ones in this setup. Besides scummy statements in posts, or lurking, it's going to be the one of the biggest factors we can look at.
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@Galaxy:
I highly doubt a mafia team would refrain from killing in the night if there was a no lynch. The game would be put into limbo in that case, and town would still have the advantage of more days to narrow down candidates based on certain factors.
Huh? Did you misunderstand what I was saying? My point was that they (the mafia) cannot lose if we don't lynch them.
@Galaxy:
That's not the only way, but it's definitely going to be one of the bigger ones in this setup. Besides scummy statements in posts, or lurking, it's going to be the one of the biggest factors we can look at.
I would say you're sorely underestimating the power of questioning and putting players under vote pressure.
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Huh? Did you misunderstand what I was saying? My point was that they (the mafia) cannot lose if we don't lynch them.
I assumed you meant the other way around.
But I actually do think they will fear the no lynch option here. The town is going to be randomly questioning and putting pressure on each other without concrete facts like a cop report or a tracker. They probably know that if the numbers don't dwindle fast, the town could turn to lynches based on random questions and random pressuring, which could put them in danger.
I would say you're sorely underestimating the power of questioning and putting players under vote pressure.
I wasn't denying that those are factors, but I don't know if I'd put either above analyzing the flipping here. That's how the town can see the mafia's potential motives, and use those motives in the questioning and pressuring phase to out the mafia.
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I generally agree with no lynching during this game because it does net us another day. It doesn't necesarily have to happend during Day 1 but that wil probably be the Day with the least to go on and we might not want to be "forced" into no lynching later on.
In any case, I agree with Foolio that people need to be active and talk starting today. The more town can analyize people's behaviour and changes in behaviour the easier it will be to scum hunt.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Oh my. The typos. :(
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what should i talk about now
this game lacks chaos right now -
what should i talk about now
this game lacks chaos right nowWell. It's never bad to ask people questions. If you notice that a player has rarely posted, quote them and give them a subject to weigh in on. If a player does something that you don't agree with ask them to elaborate. Or even if you fee similarly you can still ask a person to explain their behaviour. First of all, that forces some people to post more in general and it also gives us more to analyze later on (or immediately as the case may be).
That's the theory. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to think about what to do…
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where is nami
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
are we going to lynch her if she doesnt come ?
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Relax. It hasn't even been 12 hours yet.
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im bored ,
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I'm guessing that one of the first things we should probably prioritize is finding the detective so we can start trying to find mafia members?
Or would that just be a waste, as then they are a target?
(I'll probably have a lot of questions throughout the game so be warned) -
Uhm, guessI overslept. And then I was busy with school, still am. Those A's dont construct themselves 8)
So uhmLynch or Mo Lynch discussion. Im on the no Lynch side unless we rly find some scummy people. For now it seems fool is a bit to eager on that Lynch but that might just ne me.
Typing on phone is hard.
So far no one else has stuck out.
Im still wondering if we have roles or not. No items yes but "blank game" or however u want to Call it sounds like no roles but it's probably just me reading too much into it.
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My Last sentence sounded fishy didnt it?
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
Uhm yeah, no detective shouldnt out unless they found a maf.
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Open setup
8-vanilla town2-mafia goons
Barebones setup just for the sake of keeping the game going~ we can just play right here and the first day will be 24 hours long as will the first night, then Day 2 will be 48 hours.
Sign up for more bloodshed!
why every townie is vanilla
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That is fucking boring
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@Galaxy:
Missed this earlier.
What kind of slip up happens that paints the person as definite mafia on Day 1? Power giveaway?
On the instances I've seen its been posting in the day thread something that the player meant for the Mafia thread.
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so mafia is going to kill most inactive tonight
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so mafia is going to kill most inactive tonight
It's usually the most active players that get snuffed out by the mafia (there may have been exceptions in the recent past). Generally, you don't want to talk too much about who the mafia might target. Although I guess without abilities it isn't as bad. Still, why give them ideas? We'll see tomorro and go from there.
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cant we all vote no lynch so the day ends
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vote : no lynch .
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why do you want the day to end so quickly, firelord?
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im bored
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Ozai, you usually have to bold your lynch for it to count. Also, this game is far slower-paced than you might have expected. We have 48 hours in a day for a reason (24 today?).
This is an open setup so all that will happen during the Night will be a kill by the mafia. What is going to be your plan tomorrow if all we do right now is end the Day?
And once more for everybody. There are no powers in this game besides the mafia kill. If there were it would be a very strange choice to call this an open setup. So no detectives to be found/protected.
Voting and scum hunting don't necessarily have to end in lynches. Since it is day 1 we have the luxury of not being pressured into lynching. So if we can't find someone that 6 of us agree on then we don't have to lynch. Whereas on future days we may feel pressure to force a lynch, even when some of us begrudgingly switch to someone who isn't our first choice.
This sounds like you're advocating a No Lynch for Day 1 after all. Have you changed your mind or am I misinterpreting this?
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There is 11 hours and 15 minutes left.
There are no items -
@huschel k i got it
and please dont call me ozai or any other firelord in avatar series i hate all of them -
@huschel k i got it
and please dont call me ozai or any other firelord in avatar series i hate all of themNoted .