I disagree with the movers and shakers of this great forum. I do so not to prove that I’ m right, since you can’t really be right with the point I am trying to make, but to encourage a more open and less punishing setting to discuss the matter. There are hypotheticals and (hopefully) thought provoking material. BE ADVISED: LONG ASS-READ
Disclaimer: while I don´t really care nor want an AL attack to happen, my argumentation says that there are possible directions that Oda could take that would have great payoff from a story perspective, and that if you put personal tastes aside, the possibility, as implausible as you may deem it, is still there.
First of all:
1- The reasons for an attack are there. Let´s forget about pacing, continuity and story progression for a moment. Let´s make an exercise where you are not allowed to refute any part of this post labeled under 1 with things pertinent to storytelling or proper writing. There will be a section of the post that addresses that later.
Haxeye is not incorrect in saying that Rayleigh does not hold the necessary information to say that they are safe. He knows the Newspaper's story, but if the Marines had a genuine lead as to where Luffy is and are preparing an attack, they would obviously never show it in public channels. Thus, Rayleigh's information, even though he is a wise Obi Wan character, is insufficient to state this.
You may say that the Government is lenient with the Warlords. You would be right. You could even go as far as saying that this whole episode with Hancock would be dismissed due to conflicting evidence and a dubious and uncertain profiling of the Schichibukai, and you would be right. All of this would be right, except that it all depends on just how badly the Government wants to get to Luffy right now.
What if Luffy's whereabouts become the first priority of say a Cypher Pol. One out of eight CPs is not unthinkable considering how itchy the Marines were to off Luffy right then and there. An entire intelligence division (emphasis on the word intelligence) is now investigating Luffy's escape, and why there was no trace of the sub.
Desperate for leads, they would inevitably check recordings and testimonies. In comes the testimony of an officer who offers no reasons or background that would cause the CP to doubt the veracity of his story. Of course they would double check. In comes the testimony of another high ranking person, saying that she was acting suspicious, and were she anybody else he would have probably acted differently, but couldn´t figure her out.
Would the conflicting testimonies of a handful of marines really be enough to make an intelligence division completely ignore the testimonies of two superior officers when they are desperate for leads? And it´s not just any lead either. With Hancock's clearly defiant and incriminating statement and her commandeering of a Marine Vessel that also disappears after she declares that she´s going after Luffy…
Its TOO easy to connect the dots. So easy in fact, that the only way to dismiss it is to not look into it at all. Bottom line, if the Marines devote even a few resources or manpower into investigating or tracking Luffy, they would inevitably reach the conclusion eventually. Especially when Smoker would be so angered that he would actively look for a relevant authority to tell them what he knows. Add to that that all of these things are not known by Rayleigh and you have an excellent recipe for disaster.
2- The storytelling part of the argument. The strongest arguments against this possibility reside here without a doubt. Many points are made that are very sound, but they also discard bountiful storyline possibilties that could open up and be very interesting.
First I'd like to adress the argument that now is the closing and winding down of a very long arc and from a pacing standpoint things need to cool down and be resolved.
I find this to be a rather weak argument because storyline arcs and sagas are absolutely arbitrary in their conception as to their names, duration, start and finish, etc. There is absolutely no reason that arguments alluding to the start or end of a current storyline arc should be paid any attention, because those delimitations and the resulting appreciation as to what should happen at the end, or wind-down of an arc, and the start or set-up of an arc, are based off of things that the fanbase has created and sort of agreed upon after those events happen. It means that these types of arguments cannot be applied to current events, because such appreciations as a story arc's conclusion or start can only be made in hindsight. They are not baseless at times. Of course that there are times when it is clear that all the story threads are resolved, new settings and plot points start to appear and suddenly we are heading towards a new section of the story, and so we categorize new events into a new arc with a new name.
But to claim to know that an arc is winding down and ending when it´s still running and there are still unresolved plot points, like now, is completely baseless and invalid as an argument. In other words, you can argue that after TB everything started to set up into the climax that was the War, but you cannot possibly know that there will be no additional ancillary conflicts from unresolved, admittedly smaller scale plot points, that still need to be sorted out after the War.
It´s hard to imagine what could possibly top the death of Luffy’s brother and AwesomeBeard. The entire War screams climax and undoubtedly after it anything else seems unnecessary, and feels forced. Naturally after a climax things should wind down, but what if they don’t? Would it be completely wrong for Oda to surprise us yet again? I propose that we think for a moment about the possibilities of what an attack on AL could offer to the story. What if Oda won´t return so easily to the happy go lucky story of One Piece.
Hancock:
Many in this forum believe that Hancock would not work as a crewmate. She is a running gag that will inevitably run its course, and her powers are too ridiculous and powerful for a crew that has yet to develop. In a nutshell, including her into the crew seems unlikely and awkward. So far she needs to be around Luffy, and everything else is oblivious to her, including her responsibilities. An attack on her homeland, as well as some interaction with Luffy could make her regain the perspective and presence of mind required to be an actual leader of her people. An attack would accelerate the transformation from a careless tyrant to a responsible protector, a transformation that is necessary if we are ever going to see Hancock watching Luffy sail away. She will need to put her own selfish desires aside and allow him to leave and that requires her character developing in this manner.
If you are a pro Hancock for Nakamate, you can of course disregard this part.
Rayleigh:
Rayleigh is too epic to die of old death. Rayleigh is a popular character, and an old man who’s last relevant action upon this world will probably be to trust the future to a young man full of potential, and give him the tools to change the world. Now, does that sound familiar? A legendary old man, taking a young upstart full of potential under his wing as his last significant act of involvement in history, and trusting in him to lead the future generation? Last I heard WB was dead…
A story element that is recycled and rehashed and remade in countless stories and fables, including the ever-popular Star Wars. A wise mentor teaches the young hero secret knowledge to aid him in his quest, only to die a tragic death, and then the hero is thrust into the adventure on his own and must learn to fend for himself? I don´t really know the terminology for these kinds of recurring situations, so maybe the studious of stories can tell me how it´s referred to, but the pattern is repeated in too many stories to count.
Rayleigh comes at a time when Luffy is shattered. Luffy has even reached the point where he was told to eat, non-coincidentally while pointing out through Jimbei that to eat is to live. I recall a comment by Ivankov about Luffy’s hunger and vitality as he was eating the Newkama’s stores. This is a Luffy who is severely diminished. In fact I think that this whole ordeal has hindered his ability to unlock haki. Luffy has accepted his weakness but has not yet resolved to surpass his limits. He is lost. I think that he will have a very hard time learning anything at this time. He will inevitably come to trust Rayleigh, and befriend him, and in turn so will Rayleigh. If Oda decides to, he could set up the character of Rayleigh to somehow, be it by underhandedness or brute force, be bested and killed in an attack.
The emotional payoff would be huge, although it could be argued against by the obvious feeling that you can´t upstage the death of Ace and WB, that it is overkill and unnecessary. If you feel this way then fine, I can´t really argue against taste, but I would not find it distasteful to have one last sacrifice, especially if Rayleigh delivers some sort of cryptic message before his death that further fuels expectation and anticipation in the overarching plot and the will of D. It is a formula that works, and it wouldn´t be completely out of left field simply because an old mentor is always half-dead from the start just due to how common this is.
Robby has brought up the point that Rayleigh is too powerful for a standard Buster Call to be a hindrance to the combined might of the island´s guests and inhabitants. But what if Cypher Pol assassins poison Rayleigh or manage to mortally wound him? The problem with the scenario of an attack on AL is that it´s impossible to imagine a scenario in which Luffy and company don´t win, mostly because losing means that the island is wiped out.
But what if they don´t? What if, for instance, a plan is formulated to pretend that Hancock wants to turn Luffy in to keep her in good standing with the government? Or better yet, in a combination of the realization that her love is unrequited, and a growing sense of duty to her people, she actually betrays Luffy to the Government?! Now that´s something I´d like to see.
Death, betrayal, reunions, character development and three-dimensionality… I am a very limited writer, and my powers of imagination are very discreet. But if anything of what I said at least kinda sounds like something you’d stomach, then imagine what Oda could come up with to make this the conclusion of an arc that truly ends with a bang?
Imagine the ending as Luffy barely escapes with Jimbei on board of Chopper’s bird, aided by a wounded Rayleigh who makes the ultimate sacrifice? An ending that allows AL to live on, Hancock to remain a Schichibukai who holds a love grudge against Luffy, and Rayleigh sacrifices his life in an epic manner? Now if that doesn´t sound epic then you gotta be dead inside! This is just what I could imagine too!
I know this. There is potential in an attack to AL. It may very well never be used, we may never see it, but my faith in Oda is absolute. To condemn a certain story direction just because you can´t see the potential in it, I think that´s being too hasty. This is why I get upset when people castrate perfectly nice possibilities.
I hope I made my stance clear. I´d love to hear what people have to say, and thanks a lot for reading this ridiculously large essay.
