Sky was a good lynch target yesterday in order to eliminate a semi-active player who may or may not be mafia. Today and going forward, she's is no longer a good lynch.
Don't mean to derail the discussion, but when you get a chance Huschel, can you please elaborate on WHY she is not a good lynch anymore?
Will give life altering advice for a cup of frothy cappuccino
Jab DID claim his role in the middle of the day.
I assume you're referencing soft claiming or some sort of breadcrumbing. That's not what I am talking about. I am talking about claiming to have a gun so Town can aim it.
I see, Huschel. In that case, I still think that lynching Kitsune today might be our best course of action.
Do you have any more thoughts on my flavor theory? Can you see why a roleblocker might be a valid third party role?
Not really. In my mind, a roleblocker would just be part of Town. A 3rd party usually refers to a role that can win on its own.
How original is it to still have this in my signature 6 years later?
What's ridiculous is that you expect me to take the heat for YOUR mislynch. I still think kmohyudin is the Mafioso in this duo, but your insistence that this was my fault is really off-base. IF kmohyudin isn't lying about not getting my gun, and IF kmohyudin is Town, then that makes you Mafia scapegoating me.
Answer my question, what reason do you have to say that you couldn't have exonerated Jabberwok? You had all of the information. To blame the lynch on us when we were either mis- or uninformed is super scummy.
@ Kitsune Inferno, again don't mean to derail the discussion, but I asked Foolio a question earlier which I will like to pose to you as well
There is one question I like to ask you: Do you agree with my townie tells from yesterday? I understand that the line of thinking led to a mislynch, and that would make you cautious of the whole affair, but for the purpose of this question, I would ask you to disregard the scum part of the equation, just answer me this. The way SkullJoke and Kirby responded to No Swords plan, would you say that was a very townie response?
So, whenever you get a chance…
Will give life altering advice for a cup of frothy cappuccino
Don't mean to derail the discussion, but when you get a chance Huschel, can you please elaborate on WHY she is not a good lynch anymore?
How exactly is scumhunting "derailing the discussion"? You guys seem so complacent about making the focus of discussion on me that it's absolutely bonkers that no one has called you guys out for it. Is everyone just okay with making the easy lynch today? How is this not suspicious?
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Don't mean to derail the discussion, but when you get a chance Huschel, can you please elaborate on WHY she is not a good lynch anymore?
Because now there's bigger fish to fry. Kitsune and you right now, it seems. Sky hasn't given me enough to value her flip over more active people, I guess.
How original is it to still have this in my signature 6 years later?
Not really. In my mind, a roleblocker would just be part of Town. A 3rd party usually refers to a role that can win on its own.
Right, but in my flavor theory, if the third party is just here to mess with the testing (prevent people from getting shot), then wouldn't it make sense for them to be a roleblocker?
I don't see why there couldn't be a third party that can win at the same time as the town.
kmohyudin: I've asked everyone to say something regarding my flavor theory, as well as the possibility of third party roleblockers. What do you think?
How exactly is scumhunting "derailing the discussion"? You guys seem so complacent about making the focus of discussion on me that it's absolutely bonkers that no one has called you guys out for it. Is everyone just okay with making the easy lynch today? How is this not suspicious?
I am not 100% sold on lynching you. But I can't just ignore what I feel are inconsistencies/weak role claims.
I will try to re-evaluate my stance on you, kmo and Foolio before the Day is over. Unfortunately, when I'll have time to do that, most people won't be around until close to day end. As a heads-up/warning, I guess.
How original is it to still have this in my signature 6 years later?
@ Kitsune Inferno, again don't mean to derail the discussion, but I asked Foolio a question earlier which I will like to pose to you as well
So, whenever you get a chance…
I don't see how that exonerates them. I mean, obviously, at the moment, SkullJoke is confirmed town and I think Kirby is just complacent in your machinations, but discounting that information, it's not farfetched to theorize about blues. Claiming blue is usually a safe way for Mafia to hide out unattended, and Kirby could have simply saw SkullJoke's post and used that as a jumping off point. I'm not saying that either was necessarily off-base, but I don't see how theorizing about blues necessarily confirms them to be Town. There could just as easily be other explanations. Mafia could just have likely made those posts.
Right, but in my flavor theory, if the third party is just here to mess with the testing (prevent people from getting shot), then wouldn't it make sense for them to be a roleblocker?
If a 3rd party exists to hinder testing, then a roleblocker makes sense, yes.
I don't see why there couldn't be a third party that can win at the same time as the town.
There is no mechanical difference to making the roleblocker a part of Town.
How original is it to still have this in my signature 6 years later?
I am not 100% sold on lynching you. But I can't just ignore what I feel are inconsistencies/weak role claims.
I will try to re-evaluate my stance on you, kmo and Foolio before the Day is over. Unfortunately, when I'll have time to do that, most people won't be around until close to day end. As a heads-up/warning, I guess.
What are your stances on Sky and SUDK?
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[[D.U.R.I.A.N.]](showthread.php?t=32416 "Arlong Park Forums - Thread 32416") - [[Short and Sweet Writing]](showthread.php?t=30536 "Arlong Park Forums - Thread 30536")
If a 3rd party exists to hinder testing, then a roleblocker makes sense, yes.
There is no mechanical difference to making the roleblocker a part of Town.
Ah, yes, that would be true. That is, unless their win condition is to get something else done while they're hindering the test.
What are your stances on Sky and SUDK?
Nothing shocking, I'd wager. I wish they'd be around more. I have gotten neither Town nor Mafia vibes from either. I will try to form a better opinion about them soon as well. The reason I named you, kmo and Foolio specifically is because I do feel like I may have been basing my thoughts on unfounded first impressions/hunches concerning you three.
Thank you all for signing up for the Vest Co. Completely Safe Not Totally Dangerous Equipment Test! You lucky individuals will be helping the world of firearm protection by being outfitted with our highly safe bulletproof vestments! You all were given these special vests when you walked into our facility. Please be at ease that no random shootings will happen, but you really have nothing to fear. These state of the art vests will protect you from any aggressive displays of anger.
Above, we have yet another reason why Kitsune should never have even thought that he would shoot a random person.
kmohyudin: I've asked everyone to say something regarding my flavor theory, as well as the possibility of third party roleblockers. What do you think?
I have been deliberately avoiding the term "third parties" since it was referenced, because honestly, I am not comfortable with adding anything to the setup that is pure speculation. I guess now that I have admitted that, someone somewhere will be screaming, HEY THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT A THIRD PARTY WILL BE DOING!
That said, if there is a power role (in this case role blocker) which has their win condition set with the town, then how exactly is that a third party, which by definition have their own unique win conditions. It's possible in some setups that multiple parties can achieve their win conditions simultaneously (which is kinda what you said) but in order for it to be a third party, it needs a separate win condition that is not "all threats to the town are eliminated". Something that I can't see a role blocker having.
Will give life altering advice for a cup of frothy cappuccino
I have been deliberately avoiding the term "third parties" since it was referenced, because honestly, I am not comfortable with adding anything to the setup that is pure speculation. I guess now that I have admitted that, someone somewhere will be screaming, HEY THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT A THIRD PARTY WILL BE DOING!
That said, if there is a power role (in this case role blocker) which has their win condition set with the town, then how exactly is that a third party, which by definition have their own unique win conditions. It's possible in some setups that multiple parties can achieve their win conditions simultaneously (which is kinda what you said) but in order for it to be a third party, it needs a separate win condition that is not "all threats to the town are eliminated". Something that I can't see a role blocker having.
Well, the third party's win condition could simply be to survive until the end of the game (without being detected). In that case, they could win with either the mafia or the town, right?
Well, the third party's win condition could simply be to survive until the end of the game (without being detected). In that case, they could win with either the mafia or the town, right?
Yep, I think that's called a survivor role? Though in that case, doesn't really matter to the town, they are not a threat.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Also, if there is the "without being detected" clause (not typically in the survivor role), how is that enforced? Like what counts as detection? I don't know, that's way too speculative, and btw this is what I meant by derailing the discussion...
In that case, kmohyudin, which do you find to be the more likely scenario:
Please elaborate.
Kitsune Inferno is lying.
Everything else he said about his role seems patch work. Other than the things I have already mentioned, take this for example:
It wasn't just me saying that a Jabberwok lynch was a bad idea. I didn't have anything to go on but freaking conjecture.
I had CONJECTURE. What more do you want me to say? Should I say "CONJECTURE" again?
So, yesterday he had a conjecture. One he believed strong enough to defend, call our bandwagon a witch hunt, say I had NOTHING, etc. etc. But, NOT so strongly that he would consider full claiming over, EVEN THOUGH, he DID HARD CLAIM, which in my opinion would have been enough of an incentive for mafia to PUT A TARGET ON HIS BACK. I feel he is coming up with fine lines that don't exist. Not to mention how flimsy and strange his role claim itself is. I feel it's all a lie, and if all of those parts are a lie, it would seem a reasonable leap to think that him giving ME a gift would be a lie as well.
It's also a little coincidental that randomly I was selected. I mean, his whole deal was to discredit me based on my lynch yesterday, and then I just happened to get the gift? So, that when I deny it, it fits in his narrative?
Anyway, that's my take on it. I still hold that the drastic means to which he has gone to try to incriminate me suggests that today's lynch is critical.
Alright, well, as the game stands, I'm convinced that there is probably one mafia member who is laying relatively low. It bothers me a lot that I'm still not entirely sure what to think about Huschel, Foolio, SUDK, or Sky.
If it turns out that kmohyudin is a mafioso, then I've been happily led to poisoned water. But I probably won't believe that until I get poisoned, at this rate.
Looking forward to Foolio's take on everything.
Foremost I'm seriously not sure what I can do to make my opinions more clear. I've pretty clearly shown who I'm with and against, and who I'm willing to vote for and why.
I want to clear this up too. I am not third party, but I believe the color of the word "gun" is likely coincidental. I don't even know if it was green or purple or some other color, so allow me a second to go look back on it, but I could argue for any of those colors to be "the" Third-Party color. But it's irrelevant here, because I am 100% blue Town.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
I looked back and the word gun is like a golden yellow. That's not even in the top five colors I would associate with third party.
If anything, the color yellow almost makes me speculate that it is a Day-use gun.I fully believe there's a third-party, and was doing so before the 'gun' colour, but I believe that the yellowy colour signifies third-party.
Yellow-green has always been the third-party colour, hasn't it? I swear it has…If Kitsune is really a gunsmith that abides by the rules he claims, then kmo's Mafia and he has a chance to use his gun tonight. This worries me greatly, and there's not much we can do without kmo's lynch first which I don't advocate for.
@Everyone: If you had a gun tonight would you use it? Who would you use it on, if yes?
I don't know why buy I'm having a lot of trouble thinking of what to type or ask. I'm not sure if I'm tired or what.
Wow, after being around all night there has been a ton of posting while I was sleeping. I don't have the time or energy to build a mega-post like I normally would but I'll try to put my thoughts out there and if I missed a question or something please let me know.
@kmo you're asking if I think your town reads from the very opening of Day 1 make sense to me? The answer is no, at least not based on your one little detail that you used as criteria. At the start of the game, people speculate. People wondering what to do with visiting roles whether or not they have one is common. People wondering whether those roles even exist is common. Talking about role details in any capacity is probably a bad idea at the start of the game, so if any of them were actually soft claiming I would consider that a bad player. However, I think for the most part people were just legitimately confused by No Swords' mess of a strategy. I honestly have not gone back to re-read before making this post, but I'm pretty sure it was people asking how the hypo business works if not everyone has a visiting role. I don't think this confusion is a town read, other than MAYBE the loose conjecture that a non-townie might be a little bit more careful about questioning strategies. But the vague insinuation that maybe vanilla townies exist means nothing.
@Huschel concerning your question to Kitsu, I suppose you're absolutely right. A vote on me for that would have been totally justified. At the time I legitimately wasn't thinking that I was speaking for him; I was just trying to sort out the whole business in my head. I was (and still am) legitimately frustrated by how much we're focusing on flavor details. I know it's relevant in the context of Kitsune, but as I have repeatedly said, I think he's totally full of crap and I think he's scum every bit as much as I did on Day 2 when I was ignored entirely (actually, probably even more!). I don't see the point in going in circles over and over about when we picked numbers and why they're not random and all this. Nothing Kitsune has said about that makes sense. His role actually says Vigilante but he thinks he's giving out guns? He rolls a specific-sided die even though the number of players could change daily? I just don't understand what's complicated about letting him bleed out today and lynching him tomorrow if he was lying. I don't see any possible way we're at Mylo and nobody has put forward an argument for how we would be; that would be the only thing that might change my mind. If you don't have the confidence in the town to follow up with a lynch on Kitsune tomorrow then you are basically calling the town worthless, because I don't think anything in the world could possibly come up as more important.
Like, I enjoy the game because scum hunting is really fun, and using all the information available to maximum benefit and calling out players for being inconsistent is fun. But this game so far has very little of that. Everything is still being driven by a poor deduction kmo made on Day 1. I say this objectively because Jabberwok was objectively a townie. Kitsune has been digging his grave forever and now it's not a question of whether he dies but how and when. There is no scum hunting there; he did it to himself and put it on a silver platter. So in light of all this, I'm trying my best to actually keep scum hunting. Think about the mafia as a team, how they might be interacting, and what the hell Kitsune's game plan is if he's scum fake-claiming he was shot, literally sealing his fate immediately if it wasn't already. But when everyone either says "I dunno thinking of teams is hard" or "it'd be you, Foolio!" it's like okay. Well, what's the point then lol. We are so screwed if we have a scum pair of SUDK and Sky or something. People staying kind of under the radar, consistently being called difficult to read. Well, you're never gonna force them to give you more of a read if they can just easily go with the flow. I can barely get people to utter more than a few words about anyone I suspect or want to pressure.
Instead we spend hours asking what the numbers mean, what the game's flavor text means, what the color of the gun means. Okay look, here's what I currently think based on the latest info. I doubt it'll help anything but hey. I think we all roll for numbers and then Shuhan assigns someone a gun at random that night. Jabberwok got the N1. We didn't roll again on D2 because Jabberwok didn't use his gun. Jabberwok died yesterday, taking the gun with him. So, we are being asked to pick a number again so that Shuhan can dole the gun back out. I don't think there are third parties. I don't think there are convoluted power roles. I think it's that simple.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
I fully believe there's a third-party, and was doing so before the 'gun' colour, but I believe that the yellowy colour signifies third-party.
Yellow-green has always been the third-party colour, hasn't it? I swear it has…
What made you think that there are third parties in the first place?
@Everyone: If you had a gun tonight would you use it? Who would you use it on, if yes?
I would. But, that would depend a LOT on what happens on the day thread. First of all, I agree with Huschel's idea that it should be a group decision, and it would require a serious discussion. Right now, I don't really suspect anyone enough to murder them… I am assuming of course that Kitsune Inferno will get lynched by the end of the day.
But, if I really, REALLY, I mean that same gun to my own head really had to choose right now, probably be Foolio.
Alright, I think that interpretation is plausible. Then, who would you like to lynch today if you think we can leave the Kitsune one until tomorrow, Foolio?
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
@Everyone: If you had a gun tonight would you use it? Who would you use it on, if yes?
If we mislynch today I would absolutely not use my gun tonight. I would keep it until tomorrow, then announce I had it, and ask the town what to do with it. With one exception. If Kitsune doesn't get lynched and doesn't bleed out, I would shoot him immediately. Otherwise it's too hard to theorize because it depends a lot on what the lynch results are and whether anyone dies during the night or announces bleeding out tomorrow.
Here's a question for everyone. If Kitsune is lying about being shot, then do you think nobody was shot? There is an unexplained gap there. Nobody has "counter-claimed" as kmo put it, and we have no indication that kills can be blocked. Because if we can have an entire day with no mafia kill, it skews things in our favor even more in terms of when Mylo is and slow down to strategize, see if someone gets a new gun, etc.
My bad again, I see you’ve already voted for kmo, Foolio.
Alright, I think that interpretation is plausible. Then, who would you like to lynch today if you think we can leave the Kitsune one until tomorrow, Foolio?
I was kind of hoping as a town we'd make more scum hunting progress to make this easier. I of course currently have my vote on kmo, but I have to admit, after getting some sleep and reading up, plus venting in my last post – despite being extremely frustrated with kmo, after he cleared up some things I'm not getting the scum vibes I expected.
The problem is, we don't have that much time. Honestly I still feel like there's a good chance you're scum Kirby, and playing it extremely well with the newbie benefit-of-the-doubt bonus. Nobody so far has even attempted wagon analysis. Do you one or more mafia voted for Jabberwok? You finally admitted you thought one of the pair is probably less active. Do you think it's someone who ended up voting for Jab like Sky, or someone who refused to put that vote down? Kitsune already refused to lynch Jabberwok, so if he's scum, I tend to think his partner wouldn't do the exact same thing. It's kind of suspicious. This is one reason you're a decent candidate. Sky would be another. Huschel didn't end up on the final wagon, but not for lack of trying so he's definitely a candidate to me, and he's been keeping his posts short but making sure to post astute observations and contribute. This is his normal style, I'll admit, but it makes him a dangerous player if scum.
Wow, after being around all night there has been a ton of posting while I was sleeping. I don't have the time or energy to build a mega-post like I normally would but I'll try to put my thoughts out there and if I missed a question or something please let me know.
@kmo you're asking if I think your town reads from the very opening of Day 1 make sense to me? The answer is no, at least not based on your one little detail that you used as criteria. At the start of the game, people speculate. People wondering what to do with visiting roles whether or not they have one is common. People wondering whether those roles even exist is common. Talking about role details in any capacity is probably a bad idea at the start of the game, so if any of them were actually soft claiming I would consider that a bad player. However, I think for the most part people were just legitimately confused by No Swords' mess of a strategy. I honestly have not gone back to re-read before making this post, but I'm pretty sure it was people asking how the hypo business works if not everyone has a visiting role. I don't think this confusion is a town read, other than MAYBE the loose conjecture that a non-townie might be a little bit more careful about questioning strategies. But the vague insinuation that maybe vanilla townies exist means nothing.
@Huschel concerning your question to Kitsu, I suppose you're absolutely right. A vote on me for that would have been totally justified. At the time I legitimately wasn't thinking that I was speaking for him; I was just trying to sort out the whole business in my head. I was (and still am) legitimately frustrated by how much we're focusing on flavor details. I know it's relevant in the context of Kitsune, but as I have repeatedly said, I think he's totally full of crap and I think he's scum every bit as much as I did on Day 2 when I was ignored entirely (actually, probably even more!). I don't see the point in going in circles over and over about when we picked numbers and why they're not random and all this. Nothing Kitsune has said about that makes sense. His role actually says Vigilante but he thinks he's giving out guns? He rolls a specific-sided die even though the number of players could change daily? I just don't understand what's complicated about letting him bleed out today and lynching him tomorrow if he was lying. I don't see any possible way we're at Mylo and nobody has put forward an argument for how we would be; that would be the only thing that might change my mind. If you don't have the confidence in the town to follow up with a lynch on Kitsune tomorrow then you are basically calling the town worthless, because I don't think anything in the world could possibly come up as more important.
Like, I enjoy the game because scum hunting is really fun, and using all the information available to maximum benefit and calling out players for being inconsistent is fun. But this game so far has very little of that. Everything is still being driven by a poor deduction kmo made on Day 1. I say this objectively because Jabberwok was objectively a townie. Kitsune has been digging his grave forever and now it's not a question of whether he dies but how and when. There is no scum hunting there; he did it to himself and put it on a silver platter. So in light of all this, I'm trying my best to actually keep scum hunting. Think about the mafia as a team, how they might be interacting, and what the hell Kitsune's game plan is if he's scum fake-claiming he was shot, literally sealing his fate immediately if it wasn't already. But when everyone either says "I dunno thinking of teams is hard" or "it'd be you, Foolio!" it's like okay. Well, what's the point then lol. We are so screwed if we have a scum pair of SUDK and Sky or something. People staying kind of under the radar, consistently being called difficult to read. Well, you're never gonna force them to give you more of a read if they can just easily go with the flow. I can barely get people to utter more than a few words about anyone I suspect or want to pressure.
Instead we spend hours asking what the numbers mean, what the game's flavor text means, what the color of the gun means. Okay look, here's what I currently think based on the latest info. I doubt it'll help anything but hey. I think we all roll for numbers and then Shuhan assigns someone a gun at random that night. Jabberwok got the N1. We didn't roll again on D2 because Jabberwok didn't use his gun. Jabberwok died yesterday, taking the gun with him. So, we are being asked to pick a number again so that Shuhan can dole the gun back out. I don't think there are third parties. I don't think there are convoluted power roles. I think it's that simple.
Well I am trying mate, but so far you have been focused on pushing my wagon too. You think Kitsune Inferno is scummy, so you came up with the idea that it is me and him (in a long con, as you described). You randomly put up Sky and SUDK, as another possible example… alright, well let's ask them question then. The only thing I've seen SUDK pushing is the idea that there are third parties, which I am sure you noticed too... you mentioned so in your post. Why didn't you ask them about that? If you don't agree with the way the town is functioning, why don't you disregard that and build your own thing? If the town sees weight in it, they will follow. I told you before, I am willing to follow your lead mate, but there has to be some substance there.
In the meantime, I do have some follow up questions to your statements.
1. What makes you think there AREN'T third parties. This seems in direct contrast to SUDK's beliefs. So, I think digging deeper might help clear somethings up.
2. Don't you think that Jabberwok's lynch was successful due to his own mishandling of the situation (aided by Kitsune Inferno's lacking defense)? Please note that I am not absolving myself of the responsibility here, I just want your POV on the matter.
3. Huschel mentioned he saw some irregularities in your voting pattern, why didn't you respond to that?
4. What are your thoughts on the fact that No Swords hasn't been mod killed yet?
5. Do you have any reasons to believe that Kitsune Inferno is town?
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
@ Huschel:
1. Back on day 1, did you have anyone that struck you as Mafia?
2. Other than Kitsune Inferno's theory, do you have thoughts on what Number 9, that was etched on the gun, could signify?
3. Did Huschel regret shaving his beard?
Will give life altering advice for a cup of frothy cappuccino
There's only seven of us left. If there are three mafia, then wouldn't that mean that we are at LyLo right now? If we don't lynch someone today, and Kitsune flips townie as he is claiming, then that'd mean that tomorrow, whether someone gets shot tonight or not, there won't be enough townies to lynch the mafia, right?
If that's true, then shouldn't we focus on lynching the person today that we most believe to be mafia?
To me, it seems like someone who is handing out guns, whether they are mafia or not (though, I'll bet that they are), is likely to be considered a threat to the town. At the very least, it would be a good move for us to get rid of them. If they're not mafia, then tomorrow we either lose, or we will still probably be at six people, which means we have another day or so before we have to worry about losing to a mafia of two.
And that's really all the reasoning I think that I need to do to convince myself that we need to lynch Kitsune today. Give me a minute and I'll try to respond to the other questions that have been asked of me recently.
Vote Lynch: Kitsune Inferno
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
Foremost I'm seriously not sure what I can do to make my opinions more clear. I've pretty clearly shown who I'm with and against, and who I'm willing to vote for and why.
It's not that your opinions aren't clear from what you've posted, SUDK. It's that I'm finding it hard to get a read on you, and it's mostly because you're not posting much.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
@Everyone: If you had a gun tonight would you use it? Who would you use it on, if yes?
If I had a gun tonight… I think that I probably wouldn't use it. I wouldn't trust myself to hit a mafioso.
Then again, if we fail to lynch Kitsune today, if he doesn't bleed out shortly after the day is over, and if I do get a gun tonight, then I will definitely use it to shoot Kitsune. But that's a lot of ifs.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
I don't know why buy I'm having a lot of trouble thinking of what to type or ask. I'm not sure if I'm tired or what.
I think that, whoever the mafia is, they're doing a great job at wearing us out. Letting us spin our wheels.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Here's a question for everyone. If Kitsune is lying about being shot, then do you think nobody was shot? There is an unexplained gap there. Nobody has "counter-claimed" as kmo put it, and we have no indication that kills can be blocked. Because if we can have an entire day with no mafia kill, it skews things in our favor even more in terms of when Mylo is and slow down to strategize, see if someone gets a new gun, etc.
I think it's possible that there was no shooting last night. It's really weird today that Kitsune, the one I am most convinced is scum, is the one claiming to be shot. If we are at LyLo, then this was probably a smart move on the mafia's part, because we won't be likely to lynch someone who we think is just going to bleed out tonight anyway.
If someone else had been shot today, then we'd be lynching Kitsune (a mafioso) and letting a townie bleed to death, meaning we'd be at LyLo again tomorrow.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
As for who I think could be working together...
My guess is that Kitsune Inferno and Foolio are on the same team. I think that Foolio is purposefully suggesting that the town has more time to work with so that we will twiddle our thumbs more and not make the obvious move today, leading to a loss tomorrow. As for who the third mafioso is... I think that it really could be anyone.
Foolio makes a good point that Huschel has been mostly nondescript. He's been participating and saying a fair amount, but his lack of voting (despite his talk of intentions to vote) gives us little to analyze in terms of how close he could be to his scumbuddies.
SUDK and Sky have participated the least, and that's super suspicious and an easy play style for a mafia member to slide into. But I haven't gotten strong scum vibes from them when they actually voted. And I can't say that their voting history from yesterday tells me much, either.
kmohyudin certainly could be scum. The way that he's been hard line on almost every position he's been taking so far fits with the behavior of a mafia member, as SkullJoke pointed out yesterday. It's also interesting that he unvoted for Kitsune around the time that my third vote came in (and was removed). kmohyudin, can we actually count on your Kitsune vote today?
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Foolio: You've said that kmohyudin hasn't given off the scum vibes you were expecting today. Do you intend to unvote?
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Do you one or more mafia voted for Jabberwok?
Can you please clarify what you were asking with this question? Thanks.
You finally admitted you thought one of the pair is probably less active. Do you think it's someone who ended up voting for Jab like Sky, or someone who refused to put that vote down?
You keep insisting that there are only a pair of mafia members. I haven't said that, I have only said that I'm pretty sure one mafioso is being very inactive so that they don't leave much to analyze.
I think that either Sky or SUDK could be mafia, sure. But I also have my suspicions about the rest of you, too.
I also think that if we spend too much time analyzing the voting, we'll get stuck in WIFOM hell.
Well I am trying mate, but so far you have been focused on pushing my wagon too. You think Kitsune Inferno is scummy, so you came up with the idea that it is me and him (in a long con, as you described). You randomly put up Sky and SUDK, as another possible example… alright, well let's ask them question then. The only thing I've seen SUDK pushing is the idea that there are third parties, which I am sure you noticed too... you mentioned so in your post. Why didn't you ask them about that? If you don't agree with the way the town is functioning, why don't you disregard that and build your own thing? If the town sees weight in it, they will follow. I told you before, I am willing to follow your lead mate, but there has to be some substance there.
I am trying my hardest to get the town to STOP considering ridiculous scenarios like anti-town third parties. It's just making everyone scared and confused. And uhh believe me, I've been freaking trying to build my own thing. Or were my pleas and desperation to go for Kitsune yesterday not obvious? Was my case against Sky not adequate? No, the issue wasn't that I didn't try, it was that you turned the day into such a grand event that there was no possible way to ignore it or completely shift direction. Don't blame me for that.
1. What makes you think there AREN'T third parties. This seems in direct contrast to SUDK's beliefs. So, I think digging deeper might help clear somethings up.
2. Don't you think that Jabberwok's lynch was successful due to his own mishandling of the situation (aided by Kitsune Inferno's lacking defense)? Please note that I am not absolving myself of the responsibility here, I just want your POV on the matter.
3. Huschel mentioned he saw some irregularities in your voting pattern, why didn't you respond to that?
4. What are your thoughts on the fact that No Swords hasn't been mod killed yet?
5. Do you have any reasons to believe that Kitsune Inferno is town?
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There's only seven of us left. If there are three mafia, then wouldn't that mean that we are at LyLo right now? If we don't lynch someone today, and Kitsune flips townie as he is claiming, then that'd mean that tomorrow, whether someone gets shot tonight or not, there won't be enough townies to lynch the mafia, right?
If the town has no power roles like Doctor and Cop, then the notion of 3 mafia in a 10-person game is absolutely absurd. Even worse with the presence of extra guns. We really, really have to stop working under the assumption that some ludicrous edge case demands specific actions.
I think it's possible that there was no shooting last night. It's really weird today that Kitsune, the one I am most convinced is scum, is the one claiming to be shot. If we are at LyLo, then this was probably a smart move on the mafia's part, because we won't be likely to lynch someone who we think is just going to bleed out tonight anyway.
If someone else had been shot today, then we'd be lynching Kitsune (a mafioso) and letting a townie bleed to death, meaning we'd be at LyLo again tomorrow.
This only makes sense assuming 3 mafia. I think you need to try harder and actually think about plausible scenarios instead of taking the lazy way out and coming up with an extreme case to bend the situation to your suspicious, rather than base your suspicions on the situation.
You know what, fine. If kmo is going to urge me to do it myself, I'm giving it my all.
**Unvote
Vote Lynch: Kirbycide** @Kirbycide:
Can you please clarify what you were asking with this question? Thanks.
Sorry, missed the word "think."
You keep insisting that there are only a pair of mafia members. I haven't said that, I have only said that I'm pretty sure one mafioso is being very inactive so that they don't leave much to analyze.
I think that either Sky or SUDK could be mafia, sure. But I also have my suspicions about the rest of you, too.
I also think that if we spend too much time analyzing the voting, we'll get stuck in WIFOM hell.
Your posts and theories do nothing other than serve to confuse the town and introduced doubts about crazy scenarios. You keep riding kmo's coattails but are super reluctant to actually analyze the facts on your own. Literally anything could be WIFOM. You don't just discard wagon analysis based on that. So far everything is "I don't know" or "I think there are 3 mafia so all your scenarios are invalid." Every time you make a slip or do something scummy, you apologize profusely but everyone shrugs and assumes you're just new. But I'm tired of ignoring it because you're actively hurting the town with your theories.
Here's another question for everyone: When we ask a question of everyone, shouldn't we provide an answer for ourselves, as well?
SUDK: How would you answer your own question about what you'd do if you get a gun tonight?
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If the town has no power roles like Doctor and Cop, then the notion of 3 mafia in a 10-person game is absolutely absurd. Even worse with the presence of extra guns. We really, really have to stop working under the assumption that some ludicrous edge case demands specific actions.
It's not true that the town would be screwed without any power roles against a mafia of three. We still have the vests, and we're not entirely sure what they do, yet.
This only makes sense assuming 3 mafia. I think you need to try harder and actually think about plausible scenarios instead of taking the lazy way out and coming up with an extreme case to bend the situation to your suspicious, rather than base your suspicions on the situation.
No, I still think it makes sense to lynch the person who we think is obviously scum, even if there are only two mafia members. It's only NECESSARY for us to lynch them today if there are three mafia members, but even if there are only two, it would make sense to lynch the person we find most suspicious. For me, that's Kitsune Inferno.
Sorry, missed the word "think."
OK, so… "Do I think that one or more mafia voted for Jabberwok?"
My answer is, sure, one or more mafia members could have voted for him.
But, and here's the key, I don't know. Until we find one mafia member, I think that it's going to be hard to analyze what the other players were doing with respect to the perceived distance between them and the confirmed scum.
I want to lynch Kitsune today, because I'm pretty sure that he's scum. And if we can confirm it, then I will feel more confident in analyzing how other players were acting in regard to him and his play style.
Your posts and theories do nothing other than serve to confuse the town and introduced doubts about crazy scenarios. You keep riding kmo's coattails but are super reluctant to actually analyze the facts on your own. Literally anything could be WIFOM. You don't just discard wagon analysis based on that. So far everything is "I don't know" or "I think there are 3 mafia so all your scenarios are invalid." Every time you make a slip or do something scummy, you apologize profusely but everyone shrugs and assumes you're just new. But I'm tired of ignoring it because you're actively hurting the town with your theories.
Alright, I think that your observations are fair. I'm not scum, though, so I think that you're only going to hurt town by pursuing a wagon on me.
Sure, maybe my theories are hurting the town, but at least I'm participating. Do you find that to be worse behavior than, say, Sky?
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Also, I want to make clear that I wasn't discarding anyone's wagon analysis. I just think that, personally, I'll get bogged down in WIFOM if I focus on that right now.
The rest of you can feel free to analyze whatever you want.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
I wish there was a Shuhan signal we could use to let him know that it'd be nice for an update.
Super quick post so apologies for formatting and spell mistakes that I am bound to make.
Kirby: yeah, you can count on my vote, unless we do get a very very good hint on another Mafia. Also, just to clarify, I only saw your unvote after I posted, and thought it was clear where my vote lie, so didnt bother voting again.
@ Foolio, I said I would help you scum hunt, so I will disregard my preconceptions for now and see where this line of questioning leads. I will add my own following questions as well. I will respond to your answers later, as this is meant to be a quick post
@ Kirby (PLEASE NO ONE ELSE ANSWER!!)
1. Assuming your 3 Mafia theory is wrong, no third parties, and Kitsune IS Mafia, what do you think their next move would be
2. Is it possible as Kitsune (I think) proposed that No Sword was one of the mafia? Taking this line of reasoning to the next step, do you suppose Shuhan could have changed the alliance of one of the town members without informing us?
@ everyone
I was looking at the Jesters role, apparently there is a version of jester that wins ONLY if lynched on even numbered days. Considering Kitsune's play style yesterday and today, do you think that's what his end goal is? It's the only one that to me fits the puzzle perfectly.
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I dont know if I am allowed to link to Mafia wiki... But you can find it there.
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I would be gone now for a while. Will check in later. Are we at L-2 for Kitsune Inferno?
Will give life altering advice for a cup of frothy cappuccino
@ Kirby (PLEASE NO ONE ELSE ANSWER!!)
1. Assuming your 3 Mafia theory is wrong, no third parties, and Kitsune IS Mafia, what do you think their next move would be
2. Is it possible as Kitsune (I think) proposed that No Sword was one of the mafia? Taking this line of reasoning to the next step, do you suppose Shuhan could have changed the alliance of one of the town members without informing us?
@ everyone
I was looking at the Jesters role, apparently there is a version of jester that wins ONLY if lynched on even numbered days. Considering Kitsune's play style yesterday and today, do you think that's what his end goal is? It's the only one that to me fits the puzzle perfectly.
I suppose that it does fit what we've seen so far, but I don't think we have any other reason to suspect that there's a Jester, so I think that there's probably another explanation.
An even-day Jester? … Yeah okay. "Help" me by doing the exact thing I was complaining about and proposing literally the most outlandish theory yet. Ya know, I'm at minimum motivation now. You guys do what you want. Kitsune is 99% scum so if you just want to get rid of him now, be my guest. Lynch me after that if you want; I seem to be dead weight here.
You know what's worse than proposing outlandish theories?
Complaining about other peoples' outlandish theories without saying much yourself.
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I'd like to reiterate that games should be fun for everyone involved. Sorry that you're not having fun, Foolio.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
And, yes, I believe we are at L-2 for Kitsune.
You know what's worse than proposing outlandish theories?
Complaining about other peoples' outlandish theories without saying much yourself.
False. Saying nothing is better than distracting the town with absurdities. Calling out those absurdities is beneficial.
But you're not saying nothing. To me it seems like you're loading the thread with whining and negativity, and that's only going to make others less likely to post, too.
To elaborate on what the mafia might do if there is only one left after we lynch Kitsune, I can see Foolio cutting back on posting a lot. Popping in only to participate at a minimum, and to complain about how lame the game is. In the hope that we won't vote him out and get the last mafioso.
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Foolio: Even if you're right that there are only two mafia members. Even if you're right that if there wasn't a kill last night that the town might have more time than we originally thought. Do you not see the possibility that Kitsune is a mafioso who is lying about being shot?
There could be three mafia members, the vests might give us enough protection to survive that without any other power roles. If there are three mafia members, then I'm right that this is LyLo.
Don't you think that the risk of LyLo right now is important enough to lynch the person you are 99% sure is scum?
What made you think that there are third parties in the first place?It was initially Jabs' comment about the Town lacking defenses against third-parties. This was before he got the gun, granted, and was merely conjecture on his part, but it made me look at his posts on Day 2 and think it through. I fully thought that he was a third-party and was genuinely surprised when he wasn't. I think that, given the set-up so far, 2 Mafia and 8 Town seems really absurd, especially if said Town live for an entire Day after being killed. There has to be more going against the Town in that scenario. So either there are more Mafia or there's a third party. I refuse to believe the Mafia were given a 1:5 spread without being able to immediately kill.
SUDK: How would you answer your own question about what you'd do if you get a gun tonight?I'd use it on Kitsune if he survived today, and on either you or kmo if he didn't. I still trust the two of you least, and the choice on who to shoot would fully depend on the outcome of Kitsune's lynch.
I hate to be agreeing with Kitsune, who seems incapable of being consistent between any two posts, but I think one of Kmo and Kirby is probably scum. Definitely don't think they both are. kmo, you are being just as aggressive and tunnel-visioned now as yesterday. You've doubled-down on all of your decisions, which I think is super unhealthy because it's going to lead the town down the same path again and hijack all discussion. I think your questions and your logic are kind of stretched really thin, plus impatience. I find this really scummy. I also really think there needs to be accountability so:
…
And yes it makes me feel kind of uncomfortable getting on Kitsune's wagon but I'm doing it for my own reasons.You're voting for kmo for the exact same reasons, though: the witch hunt on Day 2. You just also think he's leading the Town along…which is also what Kitsune was voting for.
Also @Foolio: I'm gonna be honest, until I thought about it just now I believed knowing the number of threats to Town was important. I realise knowing doesn't really benefit us any because they're still out there. I definitely see how kmo and myself are the worst offenders for this.@Kirby: Why did you unvote Kitsune Post #522?
Look, I definitely think that we're gonna keep going in circles until we clear up the Kitsune issue. I'm willing to end the Day early, even, to fully clear it up so we can progress.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
@Kirby: Why did you unvote Kitsune Post #522?
Look, I definitely think that we're gonna keep going in circles until we clear up the Kitsune issue. I'm willing to end the Day early, even, to fully clear it up so we can progress.
First, I voted for Kitsune because I think he played a big role in the mislynch yesterday, that he's probably lying about something in all of his claims, and even if he isn't lying about distributing guns at night, then a gun distributor can probably be thought of as a threat to town (or at least the guns they are handing out can be thought of as such).
Then, I started to get confused about what situation the town is actually in. I think the fact that some people seem to be surviving getting shot for a day is confusing me about exactly when and at how many people the town really starts to get in danger. I also thought that it might be a good idea for us to look for another mafia member and just let Kitsune bleed out tonight.
But now, since I can't really be sure who else I am convinced is mafia yet, and because I think that there's a risk of Kitsune being part of a three member mafia, I think we might have to lynch him just to make sure we don't lose tomorrow.
Does that answer your question?
Somewhat.
Do you think Kitsune is a Town, a Mafia, or a third-party? Do you think he's lying about his ability to distribute guns?
For clarity, and so it's clear to everyone: you've jumped on Kitsune three times today, unvoting twice, and twice putting him at L-1 (albeit unknowingly, as you claim).
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
Somewhat.
Do you think Kitsune is a Town, a Mafia, or a third-party? Do you think he's lying about his ability to distribute guns?
I think that Kitsune is in the Mafia, and I think that he is probably lying about something in his role. If he is lying about whether he can distribute guns, then it might explain why he didn't do more yesterday to stop the Jabberwok vote - he only thought of the gun part of the claim after it was revealed that Jabberwok had a gun.
Either way, it all seems very scummy to me, and I'm convinced that Kitsune is scum.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
For clarity, and so it's clear to everyone: you've jumped on Kitsune three times today, unvoting twice, and twice putting him at L-1 (albeit unknowingly, as you claim).
You're right, the first unvote was because I was confused about how risky the current situation is for the town.
The second unvote is because I wanted us all to have more time to talk about everything (and it seemed like everyone else wanted that, too).
Is there something else you'd like to know?
Nah, that's good. I was making sure it was clear for me where you stood in terms of Kitsune.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
Nah, that's good. I was making sure it was clear for me where you stood in terms of Kitsune.
Are you going to be around near the end of the day? Because we might need your vote to ensure that we get a lynch.
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Also, if you don't mind me asking, SUDK:
I understand that you see me and kmo as the most suspicious right now. Is anyone else on your radar? If so, then why?
I can ensure I'll be around about for the period five to three hours before day's end, before I'll be gone.
My list right now is:
Kitsune
Kmohyudin
Kirbycide
Outside of that I don't strongly suspect anyone, which is why I haven't been pursuing anyone else. I don't have a read on Huschel or Sky, and I literally always struggle to read Foolio in every Mafia game.
I'll answer some questions now but then I'll try and form my own opinions about everything by doing a proper reread.
If you don't have the confidence in the town to follow up with a lynch on Kitsune tomorrow then you are basically calling the town worthless, because I don't think anything in the world could possibly come up as more important.
I've mentioned that circumstances often change and higher priorities can arise. I don't see the point in letting Kitsune live if you think that he's clearly scum. Because you believe him when he tells us that he is bleeding out. Yes, there's no counter-claim, but the only proof is still Kitsune's own statement. The mafia probably knows much more about how the vests work than we do because they tried to shoot throught them. We don't know what kind of strategy they can employ.
Think about the mafia as a team, how they might be interacting, and what the hell Kitsune's game plan is if he's scum fake-claiming he was shot, literally sealing his fate immediately if it wasn't already. But when everyone either says "I dunno thinking of teams is hard" or "it'd be you, Foolio!" it's like okay. Well, what's the point then lol.
You complain about being ignored while brushing of my answers to your question. I say I suspect you and you respond that's not a valid answer. If you're Town then obviously this is all very frustrating. But the fact that you're so reluctant to lynch Kitsune today is just weird to me. So that's a link between the two of you.
We are so screwed if we have a scum pair of SUDK and Sky or something. People staying kind of under the radar, consistently being called difficult to read. Well, you're never gonna force them to give you more of a read if they can just easily go with the flow. I can barely get people to utter more than a few words about anyone I suspect or want to pressure.
I think I have to already alter my statement concerning SUDK. I actually get Town vibes there. Sky, not so much. Was she around Today? At the very beginning, I think. As it is, if we really don't want to lynch Kitsune because he's already dying, then let's take this chance to get rid of the inactive player who might be mafia and flying under the radar. Or if she's Town we don't even know if we can count on her vote.
Instead we spend hours asking what the numbers mean, what the game's flavor text means, what the color of the gun means. Okay look, here's what I currently think based on the latest info. I doubt it'll help anything but hey. I think we all roll for numbers and then Shuhan assigns someone a gun at random that night. Jabberwok got the N1. We didn't roll again on D2 because Jabberwok didn't use his gun. Jabberwok died yesterday, taking the gun with him. So, we are being asked to pick a number again so that Shuhan can dole the gun back out. I don't think there are third parties. I don't think there are convoluted power roles. I think it's that simple.
I like it. It's my head canon now. I agree that the convoluted theories that have been popping up are majorly useless.
@ Huschel:
1. Back on day 1, did you have anyone that struck you as Mafia?
But…that was like 4 weeks ago, man. I don't remember...obviously I wanted to lynch Sky, but not because I found her entirely scummy. As far as I can recall, I actually was wary of Jabberwok, so...yeah.
2. Other than Kitsune Inferno's theory, do you have thoughts on what Number 9, that was etched on the gun, could signify?
Foolio's theory is solid. Jabberwok claimed #9 on Day 1 and got the gun but was trigger-sad :( So obviously that makes Kitsune's claim even more doubtful.
3. Did Huschel regret shaving his beard?
Thank you for asking an actually relevant question. Only for about a day. I quite like it now.
@__Foolio__: Before I spend some time going over the previous Days, I want to leave you with one question: On a scale of a d7 to a d10, how likely do you think it is that there is a 4th party roleblocking even Jester among us?
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If people are around right now, please respond to this.
I think I have to already alter my statement concerning SUDK. I actually get Town vibes there. Sky, not so much. Was she around Today? At the very beginning, I think. As it is, if we really don't want to lynch Kitsune because he's already dying, then let's take this chance to get rid of the inactive player who might be mafia and flying under the radar. Or if she's Town we don't even know if we can count on her vote.
I'm not willing to go for Sky over Kitsune. I've already explained why I think Kitsune's the bigger threat.
I am also not going to vote Sky over Kitsune. On day 2, Sky told us that she would be here for the first 24 hours or so of day 3, but not for the latter part of it. For the most part, her behavior has been consistent, and I do still get mainly town vibes from her when she actually posts.
I’ll say that I have also been getting town vibes from SUDK lately.
Definitely want to vote Kitsune today.
I do find it interesting that Foolio has left his vote on me, considering his complaints about others. Right off the bat, after complaining about my theorizing, kmo came in with another wild theory. Foolio even acknowledges this, but he doesn’t change his vote.
And, I hate to say it, but I do think that I have contributed more to the game than just wild theories. That Foolio doesn’t recognize this or seem to care when it comes to voting seems a little scummy to me.
I am also not going to vote Sky over Kitsune. On day 2, Sky told us that she would be here for the first 24 hours or so of day 3, but not for the latter part of it. For the most part, her behavior has been consistent, and I do still get mainly town vibes from her when she actually posts.
I'm only halfway throught my rereadm but if she said that, then fair enough.
As far as I can tell, there's two votes on Kitsune right now (Kirby, Huschel). There's only a couple hours left in the day. I guess my writeup will be to late to influence today's vote, but I'll post it for people to think about during Night 3
