Let me first start with the juicy bits. Currently, I believe that there are three mafiosos, though it's possible that there are only two, and there could certainly be more than three. My top suspects are as follows (from most suspicious to least):
Jabberwok
Kitsune Inferno
Foolio
I am also convinced that the following players are (vanilla?) townies:
Kirbycide
kmohyudin
SkullJoke
I was hoping that Huschel would give me more reason to believe he is a townie with his response, but for now I'm only somewhat sure that's true.
Now, let's see how I've gotten to these conclusions. Imagine this:
You're a cute little pink puffball, new to the APForums, and (almost) just as new to the game of Mafia. The game's about to start, and you've gotten a PM from the host, Shuhan! The PM tells you that you are a townie, and very little else. Your win condition is when all threats to the town are eliminated. Whoop-di-doo.
Now, the game has begun. The host has posted a cryptic introduction about Completely Safe Vest Testing (TM). Apparently there are ne'er-do-wells who mean to mess with things, but you shouldn't worry, because these totally safe vests are going to protect you. Probably. The ten participating players have been listed… No. They've been enumerated. And now, you've been forced to pick a number from 1 to 10.
Well, what number should you pick? Some people have already begun posting, they seem to be picking random numbers. But you're a townie, and you're just a cute pink puffball. You don't want your choice of number to cause anyone harm, so what is your best option?
Pick your own number. Aside: Remember this part, this is the key.
You pick your own number. buzzer Too bad, kid, you're too late. That number's already been taken. Oh no! Alright, then, just pick a random one from the remaining options.
The first day passes more or less uneventfully, and you don't get lynched. PHEW! But the town seems a little impotent, because no one got lynched. Well, you suppose that'll be okay, because guns are sure to fire in the night and reveal something about whatever the hell is even going on here.
The next day comes… one of the players has chosen to leave the game. Weird. Now, one of the other players claims to have been shot! But wait, they're not dead, the vest they were wearing seems to have slowed their demise, and they're going to be able to participate for today, but beyond that, who knows?
There's more, though. The shot player, SkullJoke, claims to be a townie. His description of his role PM very closely matches your own. Is there any reason to really doubt him? It'd be an extremely weird move for a mafioso to make both the claim that they are a townie and that they've been shot and will eventually bleed to death. If they're lying about their alignment, the only thing the mafioso would have done is confuse the town for a day, and either die the following night or be sure to get lynched the next day. If they're lying about being shot, you'll find out soon enough and they'll probably get lynched the next day, anyway. None of that makes a lick of sense, so they must be a perishing townie.
Okay. Well, at least now you know who one of your allies is. But they're probably going to be dead come tomorrow. Shitty all around, right? What are you going to do?!
But, lo, a ray of hope appears! Another wily player, kmohyudin, says that he is convinced of your innocence, and that he noticed something similar early on between you and the mortally wounded SkullJoke. He won't say what it is, but he points you to the exchanges around the start of the first day. There was something similar between you two? You faintly remember seeing something at the time, but then writing it off as no big deal… best to check, though.
As you read through the initial posts, it becomes clearer. You weren't the only player who (benevolently?) tried to choose their own number at the beginning of the game. SkullJoke did, too. And so did Huschel! What does it mean? As you scratch your head over these revelations, the pieces begin to fall into place.
What had made you try to choose your own number? Well, at the time, you had no idea what the numbers meant, and you didn't want your choice to cause anyone else any harm. Had the other two players been trying the same thing?
You read the other posts at the beginning of day 1 more carefully. The first poster, Jabberwok, came blazing out of the gate with a number that wasn't his. Same for the second poster, Kitsune Inferno. Almost all of the other players chose similarly random numbers. Did some of the players come in knowing that their choice of number wouldn't have any effect on the other players? Maybe they knew (or thought that they knew) from the beginning that the number they chose would correspond to which vest they got, and that's it.
But you hadn't known that. You're beginning to think that SkullJoke and Huschel hadn't, either. How the hell did kmohyudin notice that so quickly?! You're not sure, but you get the feeling that he also came into the game with the eyes of a townie, and that's how he had seen such a subtle clue from the very beginning. You're even beginning to see why kmohyudin suspects the very first two posters of day 1 the most.
You're impressed, to say the least. Stop it, Kirby, now's not the time to be impressed… Now's the time to SCUMHUNT!
You let kmohyudin know that you've seen the trail of breadcrumbs, that you're in on the secret. Can you confirm that Huschel sees it, too? Better ask.
You've got a feeling that Jabberwok and Kitsune Inferno are scum, but you're worried that they might have at least one more scumbuddy. You ask the next person on kmohyudin's list of suspicion, Foolio, if he had any similar feelings to yours at the very beginning of the game. At first he implies that he is also in on the secret, but then it becomes clear that he isn't. He has no clue what you're talking about.
Oh no, Foolio, not you too!
The other players are beginning to get irritated by all of the public secrecy. But you can't tell them anything more than what you've already said. If you say too much, then the little bit of information that made the key obvious to you upon a second look might leak out, and the scum might be able to fake a similar interpretation to yours. You keep your lips sealed, and the three you suspect of being scum only look scummier as they chatter among themselves. They're feigning understanding of the key, saying that it was clearly from before the game even started. They're saying that obviously the townies must have started with more information than the mafia (what?!). They're pretending to distance themselves from each other, they're voting to lynch each other, and they're voting to lynch you. But you hold out. Let them dig their own graves.
Eventually, Huschel gets back to you. He claims to see the key, but he doesn't make it crystal clear to you that he saw exactly what you did… That's okay, you still think he's probably a townie, but you'll have to make sure he can explain what he's said in more detail later.
And... SCENE!
So, that's pretty much the long and the short of it. Let me know what you all think. I hope at the very least that it was entertaining.
Now, I really am going to go to bed. Pink puffball, out!
kmohyudin: This is what you were talking about, right? Please tell me I'm not crazy.