Relax, please. I am definitely not talking about anything that was said before Shuhan's intro post.
Posts made by Kirbycide
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
What happened to and/or?
I really want to hear from Huschel before I say anything more. If Huschel lurks for too long, I'll spill the beans anyway. I don't think that I'll be able to get the votes to lynch Jabberwok without explaining it, anyway.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Taken aback? My confidence in what is going on has gone down again. Are you guys sure you're not reading too much into something? Maybe I'm also just being dumb. What stands out to me the most about early Day 1 is how quick people were to discuss visiting roles/powers and what to do with them. I mostly zeroed in on the hypo- situation with No Swords.
Thank you very much for your reply! Now I just have to wait for Huschel.
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Foolio. There's a chance that I'm reading too much into things, and I convinced myself very close to the beginning of the game that I was doing just that.
But now that kmohyudin has convinced me that he sees things the same way, I'm pretty sure we are both seeing a very clear pattern that indicates something about who knew too much and when.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
That line of thinking doesn't make sense, though. You've already made it public that you've seen something and that it involves Jabs. Revealing what you found shouldn't matter, as scum are going to already have acted around Jabs accordingly, or the event being in the past means people are already going to have reacted to it/not reacted to it, and you can't really press to people to react without revealing your plan.
I don't see a positive that comes from not revealing what it is.I'm sorry that the secrecy seems so suspicious to you. I will definitely reveal what I'm talking about once my conditions are met.
Believe me when I tell you that if I say too much right now, it might change what Foolio and/or Huschel say in response to my questions. That's all I can say for now, sorry.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
SUDK, if kmo and I were to reveal our thought process beyond what we've already said, it would make what we've seen too obvious to people who are not Townies. It doesn't bother me much that you can't see it right now, but I would prefer not to say what it is until I've heard back from Foolio and Huschel.
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When you come back, can you explain why you seem to suspect only two mafia? Three seems like a real option.
My thoughts when the game started were also that there would be only two scum, but the inclusion of slow-dying players seems like a real move in favor of the Town. Three Mafia would typically only allow for one mislynch but if a dying player can still vote then that delays things by a day and makes three Mafia more viable.
I'm not sure how many mafia there are, but I'm definitely convinced that there are at least two. Not sure if kmo sees it that way, too, but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
At this point it is fairly safe to say it I guess. The questions I left for town at the beginning of the day were actually in order of my suspicion, from highest to lowest. SkullJoke ninja'd me with the revelation, but he did so at the same time as me, to the minute, so my list could not have been influenced by him. I even left an open question for SkullJoke to reiterate that I trust him. That was then though, now I have a lot different list but the tail ends are intact.
Just as I thought. Thanks for confirming. And I agree about your list for the most part, though obviously I wouldn't put myself in the middle.
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You're asking me to be patient. I have been. What are we waiting for?
I, in particular, am waiting for answers from Huschel and Foolio.
Once they have replied to my questions, I'll be happy to spill the beans.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
kmohyudin: Out of curiosity, if you could make a second lynch vote on another player right now, who would it be on? I think that I know who it is, but would like to have my suspicions confirmed before I say anything.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
There are now three votes against me and yet nothing I can really respond to. I feel like I've been quite patient. If kmohyudin or someone else would do me the courtesy of actually outlining your concerns, I'd be more than happy to repsond to them.
I'd be happy to help, but if I do then I think it'll reveal too much information and skew the answers to questions that I'm still waiting for.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Foolio: Personally, I was a little taken aback at what some of the first posters did when the game started. I mean to say that, when the game started, before I actually posted, I was taken aback. Are you saying that it didn't bother you?
To clarify a little more… By "when the game started", I mean immediately after Shuhan's post that started the game. The one that talked about us all getting vests and said that day one had begun.
Wha? Where did y'all come from? … snip
This one.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Foolio: Personally, I was a little taken aback at what some of the first posters did when the game started. I mean to say that, when the game started, before I actually posted, I was taken aback. Are you saying that it didn't bother you?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Huschel: What are your thoughts on what kmohyudin and I have said?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Um, I hate to say it again, but I think y'all should definitely go back and reread some of the original posts, because I think that kmo is on to something here. I've been doing my best not to reveal his line of thinking, but I'm pretty sure that he and I are on the same page.
Vote Lynch: Jabberwok
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I'm very confused by what you're getting at. I went back to reread, and I think I'm even more confused.
You should go back and read again. There's an early similarity between me and SkullJoke that I think kmo may not have been the first to pick up on, but was probably the first to notice that it is a sign of being a townie.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
This line of thinking doesn't flow with me, and is kind of jarring given your stance. You were okay with potentially reducing our numbers when it came to our ability to scumhunt, but suddenly numbers might matter when it comes to speculating the theme of the game?
As I tried to explain to kmo yesterday, the thing I was really pushing for (even when I thought a lynch on the first day would be a good thing, even if it ended as a mislynch, which I do not necessarily believe anymore) was a discussion among all the players regarding a lynch vote. I let it slip a few times that this is what I cared about most, but I was also trying to push for the lynch just so that others would get talking.
I also came to the conclusion that if there was only one potential kill between day 1 and day 2, that there would be less to speculate on regarding the nature of the setup (our vests). It makes sense to me that with only one variable to focus on, we'd be less likely to be led astray and more likely to figure out what was actually happening.
Does this make sense? Let me know if you want any more clarification.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
This comes off as suspicious on any day but the first day, speculating on the wording of PMs. I'm not going to pry, just that it struck me as interesting.
Perhaps it's because I'm new at the game. I was simply talking about what I was thinking about. It seems clear to me that basically the only way each of us could start with varying amounts of information regarding the setup is if that variable amount of information is contained in our PMs. If that sort of thing isn't brought up until later in most games, I wouldn't know that. Sorry.
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
I was supporting you largely until this point that you appropriately boldened. This is a wild line of thinking that I don't think you ever brought up again (correct me if I'm wrong): Suddenly claiming that you were trying to rally the town together.
I touched on that a little bit above already. I don't think it was a particularly wild thought for me to have, that by working together on a lynch there would be more participation from everyone, and thus more posts for us to analyze today and in the future.
Again, I hope that I've answered any questions you may have, but if there's anything else you want clarified, then please let me know.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I think that I do see what kmo is claiming to be the source of the early "townie vibes" he got from me and SkullJoke.
But I can't say that I understand why he claims such a thing to be a townie vibe.
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@__SUDK__: I'm writing a reply to your post now.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Er, well. Actually. I can see why he would see it as a townie vibe, now. Yeah, I think I get it.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Sorry, I did not realize that Sky’s question was messing with kmohyudin’s strategy. My bad.
That said, I don’t think that my answer really says anything more than what had been said on day 1.
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Foolio: If you think that the town should have lynched someone yesterday, then wouldn’t it have made more sense for you to have voted for a day extension?
This touches on the question kmo had for Sky, but since she already answered, I think it should be fair game.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Hi, all. I’m on my phone right now, so I probably won’t be making an effort to reply with quotes until I can get to a computer.
Shame about No swords… hope that everything’s okay with him, and that we can find someone to fill his slot soon. The weird thing about him dropping out is that if he was scum, then we’ve netted a negative loss for the town. For now.
SkullJoke, that’s crazy! Can we really say that your vest worked if there’s a hole in it? You aren’t dead, I guess, but I have to agree with kmohyudin that the way you came forward with all of this information right out of the gate is a little disconcerting. If we can believe your townie claim, and your claim of having been shot, then I’m glad that the mafia kill from last night seems to have failed. For now.
Lastly, for kmohyudin’s question: As I said during day 1, I think that Jabberwok has generally been pretty helpful, though I do wish he had voted to extend the day considering the utter lack of participation we’d had from a good number of the players. Right now, I still am leaning toward keeping Jabberwok in the game, but if someone were to make a convincing case against him, I would be willing to consider making a lynch vote, yes.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
I wonder why we aren’t picking new numbers today...
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
Shuhan’s post says that everyone seems to be okay, all things considered.
But is SkullJoke really okay? This seems weird.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
To Sky’s question: As I understood it, the advantage of hypo-copping was mostly valid for an open setup, where we know that one cop exists. With hypo-cop, the rest of the vanilla townies can provide fabricated reports that might obfuscate who the cop is, while it also leaves a paper trail for the real cop so that if they flip before they can make a guilty report, the town will at least know who they investigated as innocent. The disadvantage was that the phony reports could be shifted through by the mafia over time, helping them to narrow down who the true cop is.
For now, without any knowledge about possible townie power roles, I don’t see the real benefit in such a plan for us.
If we rely on the vests, then we can at least hope for some kind of protection. If SkullJoke really has been shot, then maybe his vest will afford him the opportunity to participate today, and he will die on night 2. Maybe the other vests will be more or less effective than that. I really don’t know how much we can count on the protection from these things, but it does seem like the only known power that the townies may have beyond lynching.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
You could extend the day yourself, No swords. Is there a reason why you won't?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I see where you're coming from, SkullJoke, but I have to disagree with you on several points:
I have come around to thinking that a lynch today isn't necessarily the best course of action for the town, and I've always been open to the possibility that we won't get a lynch. That doesn't change anything about my stance on lynching in general, though. It's the only surefire way the town has to gain more information, and it may be the only way we can get rid of scum. I got off the Sky wagon when it seemed clear to me that no one else wanted to join (that was when I was convinced that we needed a lynch on day 1), I got on the Kitsune wagon because he was being inactive. I got off the Kitsune wagon because he became active again, and I am now voting for No swords because of the same reason I joined the Kitsune wagon. And more - not only has No swords been less active, I definitely saw him here reading the thread, and he decided not to participate anyway. That's damning in my eyes, so I'm voting for a lynch.
I've been pro-lynch from the beginning, the only thing that's changed is that I now see there may be times when a no lynch can benefit the town, especially when we have little information to work with.
But I believe that I have all the information I need right now to vote for no swords. If anyone would like to extend the day, I'd really be happy to see what he has to say about all of this.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I noticed that No swords was here for a moment, but has for some reason decided not to reply to anyone. That's extremely suspicious behavior, to me, and I also think his original suggestion about providing fake visitation reports seems pretty scum-aligned… so here goes:
Vote Lynch: No swords
@Huschel: Fair enough regarding the setup speculation. No, I wouldn't necessarily see SkullJoke's guess as a bad thing if it turns out that he was right. His guess does seem very plausible.
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It’ll be a shame if we don’t get the day extended. Too many unanswered questions right now, too little participation.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Thank you SO much for your reply, and you taking the time to find and quote several instances in support of your argument. I may have been unreasonable in my request, particularly because you are apparently past your bedtime, and I greatly appreciate you obliging me . I would also like to concede to the fact that you have indeed been forthright about your thinking and open to discussion. And of course, yes this is all just a game.
First off, I'm glad that my explanation seems to have at least somewhat satisfied you! I'll also apologize if it came off a bit snippy, I definitely was past my bedtime… heh. Onto business:
My main problem with your stance is that you were the biggest advocate of a lynch day 1. You said repeatedly, even in the quotes you provided that a random lynch would be better than no lynch, yet when an oppotunity presented itself, you backed out. It was not just that you backed out, you specifically said that you would probably not be back by the end of the (game) day.
The only part where I implied that I might not be back by the end of the day was when I acknowledged that two more votes could have come down (since I believed that there were four on Kitsune at the time) before I had the chance to sleep, wake up, and read what Kitsune had to say. I don't think that you should have assumed from what I said that I wouldn't be able to make it back before the original 48 hours were up.
My intent was to give Kitsune time to actually participate (since he'd finally showed), read his thoughts once I woke up, and decide how I'd vote then. I wouldn't have been able to read his response(s) and take my vote back if the wagon had hit six before I woke up, though. Does that make sense?
What makes this strange is that we were two votes off from a lynch, and you already knew that few of the remaining active townies might not vote for Kitsune, or maybe at all.
So, if your thinking was that a lynch is needed, why would you impede that?
I've already shown how it should have been pretty clear from my posts that what was most important to me was the discussion around building a lynch, not that we actually completed a lynch.
It wasn't thinking that a lynch was needed, but rather that an effort to work together on a lynch was needed. I even conceded before Kitsune showed up that not having a lynch today might help us understand more about how the game is working, though I was still hesitant to give the scum the first move.
Now you claim that you had already submitted your right to impedement, but everytime you said it, you mentioned that you would do so if you believe that the lynchee was a townie.
These are all the mentions of a vote impedement in your posts. So, my understanding on this was that you were of the "guilty until proven innocent variety", which certainly seems so. At this point did you think Kitsune was townie?
I think the better way to read my intent from the posts you've quoted is that I wanted to reserve the right to unvote if I was convinced that the target was innocent, not necessarily that I was convinced that they were a townie. The charge that had been raised against Kitsune was that he was being inactive. When I unvoted, Kitsune had already arrived and showed his intent to become more active, and I judged that this showed he was innocent of the inactive charge. And, let's reiterate here that I was simply trying to give myself time to reconsider things once I woke up.
Again, I realize this is weak. But, like I said, it's a contradiction and for me that's very important.
Moving on, like I said, I don't actually think, as of this moment, that you are scum. You are coming off as an overeager townie. I have left quite a few breadcrumbs that would lead to who I believe is scum. And while I have also left sort of an insurrance for my survival through the night, if the worse happens, it is important that I leave my findings in as comprehensive of a way as has been allowed me.
Again, thank you for taking the time and effort. No hard feelings for what has happened, or what is yet to come. :ninja:
I understand a little more why you've been homing in on me, I guess. Depending on how you've read my posts so far, one could think that I've been contradicting myself. But I don't think that I have (except when my opinion was clearly changed), and I hope that now you can see what I've said a little more clearly.
Doesn't change that I'm still suspicious of you. You still haven't explained why now wouldn't be the right time to ask Kitsune about his suspicions regarding Huschel.
And I'm also beginning to get very suspicious of those of you who have chosen to remain more or less quiet throughout the day. The general consensus seems to be that inactivity is bad for the town, so why are so many of you being so inactive?
Here's a list of the people that responded to my request for speculation regarding the numbers we chose at the start of the day (or had already speculated on their own):
Foolio (no comment)
Huschel (randomized vests with powers)
Kirbycide (whose vest will be tested/who will test ours)
kmohyudin (similar to Huschel)
SkullJoke (a few bulletproof vests)Unless I've missed someone, that leaves the following who I'd still like to see make a comment on the chosen numbers before the day's over:
Jabberwok
Kitsune Inferno
No Swords
Sky
SUDK -
RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Oh, haha. I missed that post. Thanks, Huschel.
Guess I'm tired. Time for a good sleep, this was fun!
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
But why is now not the time to ask me about my suspicions against Huschel?
kmohyudin, can you please answer this question?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
You just said you were hoping to catch a mafia knowing more than they should. Do you think think your question would somehow make them spill the beans? I'd think it would be obvious if you knew info others didn't, so you'd just keep it to yourself, right? Did you also consider that asking such questions could lead to a townie with a special role revealing more than they should, and risk giving themselves away? It's awesome to ask questions that could catch a liar off guard, but it probably needs to be more subtle or clever, otherwise it comes off suspicious. At least to me it did.
I'm not so sure that it would be obvious if you know something more than everyone else, perhaps especially to the person who knows too much. The only thing any of us is guaranteed to have beyond what we've seen in this thread is a PM from Shuhan, but we have no idea what everyone else's PM looks like. Plenty of ways for different amounts of information to get distributed in such a manner, and the mafia may not be aware of everything that makes their PMs special, even after a thorough comparison between each other.
But yeah, you're totally right that I was being ridiculously unsubtle on the second time that I asked you about the chosen numbers. I was simply trying to prompt you to respond because you had ignored me the first time. It was suspicious of me to do so, and there's not much that I can do about it now other than continue to be forthright with my answers.
I had not fully considered that there might be one or more town roles which could have been compromised this way, so… again, stupid me. Sorry for that. Hope I've cleared things up at least a little. Any other questions?
As I read this post again, I feel it's a bit aggressive. I kinda stand by it, and hope you wouldn't take offense, but anyway, I apologize if you do, that's not my intention. That said…
I'm not offended by anything that's happening here. It's just a game, right?
It also of course ends when 48 hrs are up. I don't think that's something that you can feint an excuse over, but go on…
What exactly am I feinting an excuse over regarding the length of the day? I told you that I wanted Kitsune to have a chance to participate before I became one of the reasons he got lynched. He was here to participate, so I let him. Had he never shown up, my vote would likely have stayed in place until we either lynched him or didn't lynch anyone by the end of the day.
Okay, couple of things, when you say, "a lynch, no matter who, was better for town" and then follow it up with, "I never claimed that I would be willing to vote for just anyone", either this feels like a contradiction, or you are saying that you willing to do something that you know is bad for town? I know I am being overly pedantic, but at least at this point that's all I have dammit!
Never did I claim that I would be willing to vote for just anyone. I did say that I thought it would be best for us to try to get a lynch going on day 1, and that's why I was voting for people. Perhaps it would have been better for me to simply start voicing concerns instead of throwing my vote around. But I always planned to pull my vote back if I felt there was a good reason to do so, so I guess that I just didn't think of my vote as being so consequential, especially when there were less than four votes on a wagon that needs six.
And then you say that, "In fact, I've been very clear on the fact that I would impede a vote if I thought there was good reason for it.", it may be a memory lapse, but I never got this feeling from your posts. Can you show when you were "very clear" on this?
Yes, I can show you, but not in this reply (since that'll take a lot of tabbing and copypasta). Give me a little bit and I'll make another reply quoting myself some. Or, you know, you could do what I've been doing and just go back and read previous posts yourself. But I'll do it, just give me a sec.
I will say this, you might be over eager, and you might be inexperienced. But, I would not say you are a weak townie. This question is just stupid though, scumhunting is just that, hunting for anything that feels scummy. And I pointed out what feels scummy to me, and gave you a fair chance to defend. You did say that you would be "happy to do that", didn't you?
But, my biggest problem is, you didn't really respond to my question and instead threw either subtle excuses, or just try to divert by instead throwing the blame on me. If you want to address that, the floor is all yours.
I don't think there's anyone who'd really believe you when you say that a newbie isn't a prime target for being a weak townie. I certainly don't. I don't think Foolio would agree that all of my contributions have been particularly good for the town.
And, the craziest part about this exchange is that I have answered your questions, repeatedly so. The same questions, over and over. I am not Kitsune's scumbuddy, but I'm really at a loss for something I could say that would prove it to you. You'll just have to follow your gut, I suppose.
There was no diverting blame in my response to you, kmohyudin. I simply see your continued focus on me as what it is, a repeated attempt to make me explain myself (especially when I've been extremely forthright about my thinking, even to the point of being stupidly unsubtle) and cast my playstyle in a bad light. That seems scummy to me, especially when I'm so obviously an easy target. You're on the top of my list right now.
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Here are several posts, each of which should have made it clear that my goal wasn't the lynch itself on day 1, but the discussion leading up to it whether it happened or not:
That all makes a lot of sense, but without the risk of a lynching, what reason do people have to be active on day 1?
The only thing I care about right now is that we try to work together to get a lynch on day 1. Because as I've said before, I think that will give town the most information for us to use on day 2.
I think that, unless and until the discussion gets so frenetic that it's hard to keep track of all the threads, more activity will always be more favorable for town.
I can see how it's coming across that way, but like I said, I just think it'd be best for us to get a lynch today if we can. Even a random lynch is probably better than no lynch, though I'll reserve the right to unvote if I'm convinced that the strongest wagon is going for a townie.
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We get more information than just the flip. We get to see how everyone was talking about it as it happened, and we get a chance to see how the wagons formed.
If, at the end of the day, we can't reach a consensus on who to lynch, then what's done is done. I really think that the best thing is for us all to discuss the option of lynching today rather than waiting until tomorrow.
And all of that assumes that we are lynching at random, which I do not intend to do myself. I'm already starting to build up some suspicions of others, but I'm leaving my vote on Kitsune Inferno for now because I do think it's a problem that he hasn't replied to anyone yet. Point being, if we are planning to lynch someone that I find fairly suspicious today, I'm on board. But I will unvote if I'm convinced that the wagon is going for someone I think is innocent.
And, again, I have already said that if we don't lynch today, then so be it. Even I will do what I can to prevent it if I'm convinced that the person we are targeting is innocent.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Now that I've thought about it some more, I do think that there is some merit to not lynching today:
If we are guaranteed only one kill between now and tomorrow, it might be a little easier to figure out what exactly the chosen numbers meant. Having only one variable to account for rather than two could be a good thing, though I'm still not a big fan of letting the scum make the first move.
If there are no benefits to lynching today, then it seems to me like we'll collectively agree to stop accusing and building wagons for the rest of the day… So, if we settle on a no lynch for today, we not only ensure a higher mafia kill to town kill ratio, but we also make it so that there is little reason to continue discussing it, and thus we lose out on information for tomorrow, too.
Again, it's not that I'm dead set on lynching someone today, I just think that the information we get out of pursuing a lynch together is much more valuable than the information we get from deciding that we won't.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
The question is, do we want the information from a collectively pursued lynch on day 1 in addition to that, or do we not?
In all the quotes, I've taken the liberty to provide only what's relevant to your question, kmohyudin. I may have added ellipses in some places so that my other sentences didn't clutter it up.
That makes ten posts (including new post merges) where I showed that what I cared most about was the discussion that pursuing a lynch would create, and that I would reserve the right to unvote if I felt it was necessary.
So. Anything else I can do for you?
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Oh, and every single one of those posts are from before Kitsune showed up.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
That's fine, Kitsune, you can be entirely to blame for all the fun I'm having right now! You make a good point about timing, so:
Vote: Day Extension
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I know you're new and I do sense genuine eagerness but it's hard for me to ignore the multiple instances where your behavior felt abrupt or your question to me which felt like fishing.
I get it, and you're right that some of my behavior could be seen as questionable. Do you have any specific questions for me? I'll do my best to oblige.
The question I posed to you about the chosen numbers was definitely unsubtle. I'll admit that I'm fishing - for mafia. I suspect that they may know something more about the setup than the rest of us do, and that's why I'm trying to get more people talking today before the information we have tomorrow gives them an excuse for knowing too much.
But you're right that it looks like I could have been looking for town roles, too. Stupid of me, I suppose.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Since you changed your opinion about the impact of lynches after Kitsune's admittedly awesome posts, they are irrelevant to our discussion that is about what happened beforehand.
Your thought process was that a lynch, even a mislynch is better than nothing. You hoped on the Kitsune wagon, and than when it got close, but not too close to actually happening you receded.
Now, while Kitsune did arrive, you also mentioned that you were planning to go to sleep, and you might not be here when the day ends.
I'll explain it again, but since Kitsune had suddenly arrived (and right before I was planning to go to sleep), I was willing to unvote so that he could have some time to explain himself. I didn't want to wake up to find that the hammer had already fallen when it could have been avoided with my unvote. The day ends when the hammer falls, right?
So, with so few people willing to lynch on day 1, why did you construct a situation where if the town wanted to lynch someone, it would be harder to do it in your absence. When you were against this before.
Did it have anything to do with the fact that the possible lynchee was Kitsune? How would you react to the accusation that it seems a little bit like he is your scumbuddy?
Even when I did think that a lynch, no matter who, was better for town, I never claimed that I would be willing to vote for just anyone. You and a couple others were implying that I was in favor of random lynching (and thus implying that I'd be in favor of random voting), but I never said that I'd do such a thing. In fact, I've been very clear on the fact that I would impede a vote if I thought there was good reason for it.
My reaction to your final accusation is that there's probably nothing I can say that would prove to you beyond any doubt that I'm not Kitsune's scumbuddy.
But here's my counterask: What would you say to the accusation that you seem to be zeroing in on me because I may be a weaker townie? Someone who might be easier to build a wagon against in the coming days and force the town to make a mislynch? Doesn't that seem like kind of a scummy thing to do?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
This is including the information of the previous night kill, which doesn't really apply to the first day.
Gotcha. Again, that makes perfect sense, so thank you very much for your help.
We have x amount of players who made a move. It is possible that nobody on that wagon is Mafia. But it creates an accountability trail. It establishes patterns in the behaviors around players. It's why you look scummy for boarding two wagons with little to go on. You are creating information, just by voting.
Yeah, the fact that we can make reads on people based on their wagon participation was clear to me from the start. I'm not too worried about coming off scummy, because I think that I'll probably be able to defend myself if it comes down to it.
Though, I can see now why it would be a good idea for me to be more aware of how I'm appearing to the rest of you.
To me, it always seemed like more of a scummy thing to be hyper aware of how credible/trustworthy you look, though.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I understand. Was that the only reason though? I am curious then why you placed your vote in the first place, forgive me for saying this but it seems awfully random.
Yes, it was the only reason that I gave an unvote.
I thought that I also explained this at the time of my initial vote for Kitsune, but I'll try to give it another shot: I voted for him in the first place because (1) I was acting under the impression that a lynch today was the best course of action for the town, even if it was accidentally a townie, and (2) he had been arguably the least active participant at the time.
We all seem to be in agreement that inactivity is bad, even if we can't necessarily agree about whether it's a lynchable offense on day 1, so that should be self explanatory. And, as I said above, I'm willing now to take a little more time to gain more understanding of the game before I decide that lynching today is the best course of action for the town.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I know this is overly technical and analytical, but it's generally how my brain approaches the game.
Get out of here with that "overly technical" crap. This was an awesome post, and I truly appreciate it because my brain works similarly. Thank you for breaking it down so nicely!
One last thing I'd like some clarification on, though: What are the three pieces of infallible information that we get from a mislynch? I understand that we get the flip from the mislynch and also the mafia kill on the following night, but I am having trouble seeing what you would call the third piece, I suppose.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Kirbycide: Why did you go back on your vote to lynch Kitsune, when before you were so keen on lynching anyone. What part of the impending lynch made you hesitant?
I already explained that in the same post where I unvoted:
With four votes on Kitsune, I think the risk of him getting two more before I wake up in the morning is too high. Let's give him a chance to participate some before we make an avoidable mislynch.
Since he finally showed up, I figured that I'd give him a chance to explain himself before letting my vote become part of an easily avoidable mislynch.
Now, things are getting interesting, and I can't go to sleep yet. I blame all of that on Kitsune!
His explanation of the benefits/drawbacks of a lynch today was the one that made the most sense to me, and now I'm willing to take more time to consider whether a lynch today would be the best course of action for the town.
I'm also beginning to consider what he's said about his suspicions, and would like to hear what Huschel has to say in response.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I'm inclined to agree with you, generally. Lynching is the best weapon we have as Town, and it's the only information we can rely on as being 100% the truth that we can generate ourselves. However, I am a little reticent to build a wagon, sheerly because of the size of the game. What if there are three Mafia? We should probably gauge just how many mislynches we have as soon as we can.
That makes a lot of sense, knowing how many times the town can screw up will definitely impact how I feel about continuing to pursue a lynch today.
Someone may have given you a better, less technical answer than this, but basically, a no-lynch usually produces 1 death, with 1 being guaranteed not-Scum. Therefore, the Scum eliminates 1 town player and 0 scum, with a net loss of 1 townie. A lynch will generate either a correct lynch (which produces 2 deaths, 1 scum and 1 not-scum, net loss 0) or a mislynch (which produces 0 scum deaths and 2 not-scum deaths, net loss 2). This does not take into account Doctors, Serial Killers, Vigilantes, Gunsmiths, etc. which shift the net losses for the town in myriad different ways. Generally speaking, No lynches ARE useful when we know we are more than 2 losses away from a Scum win. And they can be useful if we know that we are an odd number of losses away from a scum win, but that depends on the amount of information we have. If that makes sense.
In our case, as of right now, we don't know how many net losses we can take before Scum wins. Assuming there are 2 mafia, we can afford 5 losses (or 2 mislynches, net 2 loss remember?), assuming 3 mafia, we can afford only 3 (or 1 mislynch). However, we don't know enough about the mafia count nor the players. Sorry if that's confusing.
Thank you very much! That was super informative, and I follow you on everything except for the bolded part. It seems to me like you're saying that being more than two losses away (more than one mislynch, or two nights with no lynches) is a situation in which a no lynch can be beneficial. Why is a no lynch possibly beneficial in this case? For the additional discussion time?
Can you also explain why having an odd number of losses available creates a similar scenario? I get that a mislynch in this case is likely to push a mafia win one day closer.
The game started like right before a holiday during a long weekend, so I was a little busy. :P But that doesn't change that, yes, an inactive townie is worse than an active scum.
That's a fair excuse, though I suppose you could have had ulterior motives to avoiding discussion until the last quarter of the day. But for now, you've definitely cleared your name in my eyes.
Kirbycide: I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for your wagonjumping because you seem to be new to these games, but you seem very eager to get on a wagon. Any wagon.
I've been acting under the assumption that more town-controlled kills is better for the town, even if we make a mislynch. This early in the game, I see it as another way for us to gain information to work with tomorrow. But as I've already mentioned, if we can guarantee only one loss between now and the next day phase, it might make our work a little easier when it comes to piecing together what is still unclear about the game rules/setting.
Is there any player you would NOT be comfortable lynching right now and why?
For the most part, after hearing what everyone's had to say, I don't particularly want to lynch anyone anymore. There are a few people I'm beginning to suspect of scummy behavior, but I think I've also learned that maybe I should be keeping more of my thoughts to myself, so I'm going to do that for now. I can go ahead and give you a few names of people I definitely wouldn't vote for at this point, though:
Jabberwok, Kirbycide, Kitsune Inferno, SkullJoke
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I forgot to tell you why I wouldn't feel comfortable voting for them: Jabberwok, you, and SkullJoke have all been helpful and friendly, and I think a town that helps itself is a good town, so I'd like to keep you around.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
With four votes on Kitsune, I think the risk of him getting two more before I wake up in the morning is too high. Let's give him a chance to participate some before we make an avoidable mislynch.
Unvote
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Oh, ninja'd by the jocular one himself. Well, I'll leave it as an unvote for now. Looking forward to what you have to say, Kitsune!
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Well, 12 hours to go.
Vote lynch: Kitsune Inferno
Any thoughts on the numbers we chose? Sharing this information now might be a good way to catch who knew more than everyone else did today.
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No one is saying to not scum hunt, the argument has clearly been to have a more valid reason to lynch than for the sake of it. I myself will be on board for a lynch if two conditions are met, that there is a reasonable possibility that the one we are lynching is Mafia, and that the person is given adequate opportunity to defend themselves. Of course, tomorrow I will be a lot more trigger happy, this is specifically for day 1.
Does that mean you definitely will not vote for Kitsune today? The chance of him being mafia is only 20-30% according to the others.
And if he continues to lurk, then he definitely will not have an adequate opportunity to defend himself.
Also, what do you think about the numbers we chose? Aside from the fact that you're #1, of course.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
In other words, there are clear benefits to waiting and no real benefits to lynching today.
If there are no benefits to lynching today, then it seems to me like we'll collectively agree to stop accusing and building wagons for the rest of the day. It also effectively reduces the number of town controlled kills by one, and it is town controlled kills which win the game for town.
So, if we settle on a no lynch for today, we not only ensure a higher mafia kill to town kill ratio, but we also make it so that there is little reason to continue discussing it, and thus we lose out on information for tomorrow, too.
Again, it's not that I'm dead set on lynching someone today, I just think that the information we get out of pursuing a lynch together is much more valuable than the information we get from deciding that we won't.
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We also get to see who the Mafia targeted.
We're going to see who the mafia targeted whether we lynch someone today or not.
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And my last rebuttal:
Even in the worst case scenario that we are down two townies tomorrow, our odds of catching mafia tomorrow completely at random become 1/4 or 3/8, by your analysis. So, actually, lynching someone today makes our odds tomorrow even better than if we don't.
But let's be realistic, the odds tomorrow aren't going to be random. We're going to have a lot more to work off of. The question is, do we want the information from a collectively pursued lynch on day 1 in addition to that, or do we not?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
@Sky:
Of course there's a chance, but it's not likely to be a very good one, especially with the limited information we have, and the chosen number game mechanism which has yet to be revealed. As you said earlier, getting more information for the Town is the best way to win, but I don't think lynching on Day 1 is the best way to do that.
I already acknowledged that a completely random (and let's be clear, I've already said that it being truly random isn't really possible) lynch today would have at best a 30% chance of hitting a mafia member, if there are three of them among us. But, again, that's still better than the guaranteed 0% if we do nothing and wait for them to make the first move. If we do that, then by tomorrow we'll have 100% chance of being down one townie (this is a mafia game after all).
I'll concede that, as Jabberwok pointed out, if we mislynch today, then we will probably be down two townies tomorrow, and that most likely does put mafia one day closer to winning. But we have the numbers on our side right now, and I think that the information we get out of using them would still be valuable.
And, again, I have already said that if we don't lynch today, then so be it. Even I will do what I can to prevent it if I'm convinced that the person we are targeting is innocent.
You've mentioned the chosen numbers, can you think of a reason why this mechanic would make it worse for us to lynch today? Even if it's just speculation, what do you think the numbers could mean?
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Actually, let that be a question for everyone. What do you think the point of us choosing numbers today was?
I've already speculated that it could have to do with our vest testing. Maybe we picked the person whose vest we will each test tonight, or maybe we picked which person will test ours.
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Now that I've thought about it some more, I do think that there is some merit to not lynching today:
If we are guaranteed only one kill between now and tomorrow, it might be a little easier to figure out what exactly the chosen numbers meant. Having only one variable to account for rather than two could be a good thing, though I'm still not a big fan of letting the scum make the first move.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I think that a 30% chance of hitting mafia with a lynch today is better than the 0% we are guaranteed if we don't do it.
That's assuming we have 3 mafia members. If there are two, the probability is even lower, but I still think that it is better than 0%.
And all of that assumes that we are lynching at random, which I do not intend to do myself. I'm already starting to build up some suspicions of others, but I'm leaving my vote on Kitsune Inferno for now because I do think it's a problem that he hasn't replied to anyone yet. Point being, if we are planning to lynch someone that I find fairly suspicious today, I'm on board. But I will unvote if I'm convinced that the wagon is going for someone I think is innocent.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
That's not really true though. Your motivation is that lynching is better than nothing, and let's lynch?
What's not true? I am being clear about my motivation, and I am happy to defend myself.
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And yes, I do believe that a lynch has a chance of catching a mafia member today, so it's worth giving it a try.
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Not to mention I have no idea who "Calcium Jocularity" is??
I don't want to step on Shuhan's toes here, but it seemed to me that this was a silly pet name for Skull Joke.
Yohoho~
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
But… aren't YOU yourself the wagon here? Knowing that, why would you still put yourself in that situation?
Because I'm being clear about my motivation and am happy to defend myself…? No one has really convinced me yet of the efficacy of not lynching on day 1, so I'm still going to try to make a lynch happen.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Jumping on the Sky wagon after she posted already raised my eyebrows, but then hopping straight on the Kitsu bandwagon as well feels overeager.
I can see how it's coming across that way, but like I said, I just think it'd be best for us to get a lynch today if we can. Even a random lynch is probably better than no lynch, though I'll reserve the right to unvote if I'm convinced that the strongest wagon is going for a townie.
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Your argument that a lynch, any lynch even one without reason, is good; doesn't fly with me. Here is a little experiment, suppose you lynch Kitsune and tomorrow you get the standard report that Kitsune is dead, he was a townie. And maaaaaaaaaaybbeeee if you are really lucky, you get a role out of the report, though I am not overly optimistic on that. Now what, you have your information how does that help you scum hunt? You have a confirmed townie yes, but he is dead.
We get more information than just the flip. We get to see how everyone was talking about it as it happened, and we get a chance to see how the wagons formed.
If, at the end of the day, we can't reach a consensus on who to lynch, then what's done is done. I really think that the best thing is for us all to discuss the option of lynching today rather than waiting until tomorrow.
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In case I haven't been fully clear on my stance yet: I want town to make the first move, there's no reason we should let the scum guarantee that the first death is a townie. Let's try and get them first.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I understand that you really want to lynch somebody today, but it might benefit you/us if you could be a little bit more purposeful in who you vote for. Right now, this seems very opportunistic. Any particular reason you think Kitsune should be killed?
Kitsune was the second person to post once the game had actually started, but since then there's been nary a word. That seems a little fishy to me, better than nothing.
It'd be nice if Kitsune could at the very least give us a stance on no swords's plan and the hypo cop plan.
And, sure, I'll admit to the fact that I'm selfishly just trying to get a lynch today. It's sure to be one way for us to learn more about how the game is operating, and we might get scum if we're lucky.
Is there someone else that you suspect more?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
@SomebodyUDon'tKnow:
Kirbycide: What's your current stance on inactivity given recent discussions?
I think that, unless and until the discussion gets so frenetic that it's hard to keep track of all the threads, more activity will always be more favorable for town.
That means inactivity is probably one of the worst things for town in my eyes.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
That's fair enough, Foolio. The only thing I care about right now is that we try to work together to get a lynch on day 1. Because as I've said before, I think that will give town the most information for us to use on day 2. It might also give townies with special roles (assuming they even exist) more information to work with on night 1. So, the next logical thing for me to do would be:
Unvote
Vote Lynch: Kitsune Inferno
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
I see where you're going with that, and I agree. More posting could be beneficial for the scum, but I think that the benefits it would give the town are far greater.
So… where is everyone? Hopefully having a good holiday.
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Here. Maybe this can encourage some more discussion.
Foolio, you originally voted for Sky because she was the last person to make a first post. Now that Sky has responded, do you intend to unvote? If not, then can you explain why?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Just to be clear, when you say that being active helps everyone, do you mean that more activity can also help the scum?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
That all makes a lot of sense, but without the risk of a lynching, what reason do people have to be active on day 1?
More activity means more information, too, right? Personally, I'd prefer to see more people posting.
Also, I don't buy the argument that any lynch is ever done completely at random. We at least know that the scum, if there is any, will have more information than us, and the way they choose to interact on day 1, including what lynch votes they give or don't give, will tell us something.
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
Ehhh I don't see it that way. On the first day, if we lynch without much to go on, the odds are higher that the lynch will take out a townie, not a mafia. And that brings the mafia one day closer to their victory.
Inactivity we can all agree is a detriment to the town. But for the reason stated, to me, this feels like you're just adding on to a person who has a vote (for a different reason), hoping the votes will stick. FWIW, there hasn't seemed to be a "we must Lynch" vibe from most of the players, most have remained silent, Jabberwok and I even saying we should give the easy inactivity vote some more time before lynching. And No Swords Style said he's waiting to hear from Sky and Kitsune to see if he wants to lynch or not.
Yes, with next to no information to go on, it's definitely more likely for the lynch to hit a Townie. But the lynch also gives us some more information to work with on day 2, so we should consider that.
Also, there is some chance that the lynch will hit scum, and that can't be discounted. It's true that there is little we know about the setup so far, but I highly doubt that the mafia will be able to be killed by anything but a lynch or a townie with power (and we don't know if they exist yet). To not use a lynch is to miss an opportunity to kill scum.
I understand how my vote might seem to you, but I already explained that the inactivity didn't factor in to my decision. I'm only voting because of Sky's defense that a no lynch on day 1 is the best action. I wholeheartedly disagree, and think this is a weak defense for a townie. That's why I voted.
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Also, since I'm new at this, does an accidental lynch of a townie on day 1 actually bring the mafia 1 day closer to victory? Doesn't that depend on how many mafia there are and whether there are an even or an odd number of players? Can someone with more experience here share their thoughts?
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RE: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game
@Sky:
#10 sounds good to me. Sorry I was a little late in arriving, I hadn't realized the official game start had happened.
I also don't agree with this. The idea that a majority of people will likely be making up any sort of visiting seems to be counterintuitive. While we might be able to determine who is making it up, that doesn't determine whether they are townie or a mafia member.
That's a legitimate stance, but I wholeheartedly disagree on lynching on the first day, especially with such a small game.
Isn't a no-lynch on day 1 one of the worst things that Town can do for itself? It's like giving the Mafia a free night to do whatever they want, and only they have the benefit of the information from our conversations on day 1. As far as I see it, only lynches can catch Mafia, and we should use them liberally. Otherwise the night kill ratio goes up, and that can only spell doom for the town, right?
As far as showing up late, I can understand that, I also only realized the game had started because I was checking the thread every 12 hours or so. Missed the chance to get number 9 out of the gate.
But I don't like the "no lynch day 1" argument you're making here, so I'll go ahead and jump in with Foolio.
Vote Lynch: Sky
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Benefit is if the cop dies (assuming there is one), you have their investigation history confirmed. This is very good for the town, although there could always be complications such as a godfather role (a mafioso who shows up innocent to cops). Main downside is the mafia could start weeding out false claims (like, anyone who claims they got an innocent report on a guilty player) and have better odds of finding and killing the true cop… again, assuming one exists. My personal universal downside is people getting caught up trying to analyze all these theoretical results and waiting for some kind of conclusive evidence instead of scum hunting.
I am not counting on the details of the setup suddenly becoming clear. This is not looking like an open setup so who knows how many scum there are or what the roles look like. And everyone probably knows how much I hate twiddling my thumbs. So to that end:
Vote Lynch: Sky
Will always be a proponent of getting things rolling from day one. Inactivity is an easy early vote.
I see what you're saying about the hypo-cop scenario. Something tells me that it would only serve as a distraction, and I also don't like that it might help the Mafia track down any Townies with powers (if they exist). So, for now, I'm not a fan of it.
Perhaps the setup will become clearer by start of day 2… I'm hoping that we'll at least be able to piece together why we were made to choose numbers. Maybe with the number choices, we have picked the person whose vest we get to test tonight, or maybe we picked the person who will test our vest.