@Robby:
No one is saying "Carrot isn't joining because I don't like her."
We're saying "Oda hasn't treated her the same way he does other main characters."
There's a difference. Carrot is fine. Just not one of 11 lead characters.
In terms of prominence, design, screentime, overall story role, she's absolutely filling the exact same qualifications of an ally, like the whole mess of them we had back in Dresserossa. Or the Galley La workers. Or Capone's group. Or Jonny and Yosaku. Or Law. Or Mr. 2.
The things being argued for her at this point are almost entirely bar lowered points that ignore the actual story structure because people are theory crafting purely BECAUSE "I like her" which is the same thing as every other female character we've seen. "I like the character" can't be the basis for predicting the story. I'm willing to listen to arguments for Kinemon and I don't like him at all. I thought Bart had something of a chance if his fanboying hadn't been so extreme but I didn't really care for him. I didn't care for Jimbei initially but the story arguments for him were super compelling so I started supporting him very early on.
Carrot is fine, and if we didn't have Chopper she'd have a shot, but she'd still be lacking and the weakpoints would still be weakpoints But we've had Chopper for 17 years and once you account for that, no, she's not joining. Anymore than Perona, Caimie, Margareitte, Hancock, Shirahoshi, Monet, Rebecca, or Viola did. ANd those characters all had super passionate arguments for them too based on "I like them!" and making up qualities they didn't have to try and make them fit, while ignoring all the actual story stuff going against them.
"She wants to see the world" "She's a strong warrior" "She's got no real obligations back home" "She has a unique weapon!" "Her haircut is different so she stands out a from Nami!" "She was the first person on the island Luffy got along with and he did a lot for her!" all applied to Margueritte just as strongly as Carrot. She even "has haki which she can teach the others!" ANd then in the end? She joined her existing crew and got to be a powerhouse ally instead. ANd also Hancock showed up and people started making those same, even more nonsensical argument, for her instead. SHe was a temporary ally, among many. And a decent character, nothing wrong with her. But not a lead.
We'll know the last person when we see them.
I've always assumed he didn't get one at the time to avoid spoiling Vivi.
But a chance to stay with an island full of people just like him that he's a hero of and has a girl he likes on it? That seems like a decent time to make a proper declaration and decision. When he first joined Luffy he had zero context of the outside world, there wasn't really a choice involved, he basically joined the first pirate he met. Now though? I always assumed he'd interact with a valley of animals at some point. I hadn't counted on Minks perse but I always figured he'd be given a real haven that he might truly belong in, and then have to decide.
It's a mix. One part Oda forgot, one part he's gonna do something eventually. If Usopp hadn't gotten his number chapter nearly a decade after joining it wouldn't be a thing and yet….
that he DID get it, along with Franky, while simultaneously STILL skipping Robin, even after all the Enies Lobby stuff? Oda made a supremely conscious decision at that point to only count 2 of the 3 people joining. (Which led to a year of people speculating in 7 was Robin or Franky, up until Brook was officially 8.)
Even if Oda makes a mistake or just forgets, he's shown he's willing to go back and make it work later.
For Robin I always assumed it'd be something tied to the revolutionaries, but then she went and stayed with them during the timeskip so I dunno anymore.
See you're trying to find similarities in the way other crewmembers have joined in the past but as of Jinbei this trend you're trying to look for has been blown out of the water. Jinbei of the sun pirates, who is basically the most experienced pirate aboard the ship (not talking about age) will be followed by Carrot of the Nox Pirates (I called her that because she's taking over Pedro's will, I know she isn't officially a member)/(night pirates, has affiliation with the moon), will be the least experienced in the crew when she joins (in terms of piracy) and this whole sun and moon day and night theme can be seen from miles away, wrap that around the fact the word new dawn has been thrown around a few times and the fact that Oda said the next crewmates will join back to back and the fact that Carrot will occupy the white color in the crew and if Pedro really is dead then yeah her chances aren't zero as you might want it to be. I'm on my phone so I can't do the whole picking things up from manga panels to demonstrate why I think she will join but I'm not exactly saying it "will" happen whereas you're suggesting it "absolutely won't" happen. You must know something that only you know to be that dead certain. Unlike some I don't think there will be only be one more member to join after Jinbei, I think there will be 3 more. Each new sea has given us 4 members so if we want to talk about patterns then let's be consistent. The recruitment pattern for each new sea has been guy, girl, guy, guy. So we have our guy in the new world the next member WILL be a girl followed by two more guys. I wish I could make my response more compelling but I don't feel the need because your mind's already made up.
I think I read too many theories but I read one where it said Monet's df (if dead) might have re-spawned on Nami's orange tree and that Carrot might eat it in the future and gain logia powers. Snow rabbit in Wano where I think it snows a lot hmm…