@Count:
I agree with all of this, but I think it is also worth thinking about what the rest of Guts' party will do after Casca regains her memory and the truth comes out (if Guts, Casca, Schierke, or Farnese even disclose it, but I hope they do because I'm sick of these secrets being kept). Basically, what I'm saying is… what if there's a chance that somebody takes Casca's side? It would feel too one-sided and awkward if Casca just left on her own. And the relationship between Farnese and Casca, to the point where Farnese is literally experiencing Casca's past emotions/memories, had to be built up for something significant when Casca does regain her memory. And if Farnese sides with Casca, then how would Serpico feel? Not to mention Roderick, he has to be here for some sort of reason too than being the ship captain and trying to gain Farnese's favor. And I wonder if when Isidro finally learns about Guts' affiliation with the Band of the Hawk, we actually get to see his backstory about his home life, Guts becoming his idol, and why he ran away.
Faust, since you're a big fan of Golden Age parallels occurring with Casca regaining her memory, do you think that we could see a parallel to when the Band of the Hawk almost fell apart after Griffith was saved from the dungeon and Guts decided to leave again? I personally fully expect something like that, except this will eventually (maybe not this arc but EVENTUALLY) end up with Guts making the "right" choice this time to show character growth.
I think that regardless of how dire their dispute will turn out Guts will never leave Casca behind again, in vol 17 realizing his previous mistakes he swore to never leave her again and to put aside his quest for revenge.
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That panel is one of the most important turning point of the series, if not the most important. If he had to stand between the decision of protecting Casca and pursuing his revenge he would choose the first, as he did at the Tower of Conviction. That is why i doubt the group will split, i can't tell what sort of conflict there will be between the 2, whether just an argument or a serious falling out (though i also doubt it will be that dire of an argument), but i can't see Guts leaving Casca behind to hunt down Griffith, his character already grew past that. So, yes, i think this time Guts will not repeat his previous mistake, if he would that would be a degradation from his current character.
A splitting of the group would only occur if Casca would firmly decide that she doesn't want Guts to follow her, and in that case i really don't know what the rest of the group would do, it's a very hard question. Isidro admires Guts almost as his idol (which is Guts himself lol), Farnese idolizes him as the prophet that changed her life and she has a crush on him (a similar relationship between Golden Age's Casca and Griffith) but at the same time how could she leave Casca go alone? Serpico just follows Farnese and i can't see him finally going on emotionally free from her, that is the direction his character is taking, but not just yet. Roderick also follows her as he seems to genuinely feel interest for her. Schierke is Farnese's teacher and splitting them up would interrupt the training. I'm almost tempted to say that by how hard of a situation would be to manage narratively, Miura may never choose to opt for it. Also the eventuality that Casca may refuse to be followed by Guts seems a bit extreme as developement. That is why i'm inclined to think that they will go on together, regardless of how much tension there will be between them in the meantime.
About Guts's intentions, when he was hurring toward the Tower of Conviction, after he met Skull Knight, he kept considering the eventuality that Griffith would stand before him while searching for Casca,
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and even recently, on the Sea Horse, before landing at Skellig he was shown to pondering at what he would do after she regains her mind. That is to show that subconsciously he never really abandoned his desire to hunt down Griffith, he only choosed to temporarily put it aside for Casca. But i can envision a situation at end of manga where he will have to make his final fateful choice, and after that no turning back, remaining with his new friend and renouncing definetely to kill Griffith, or repeating his previous mistake? That is not to say there won't be a final battle between them of course, they WILL have a final battle. But this decision cannot happen now because it's deeply linked with his trauma from the Eclipse and with the mental state that he developed in the 2 years when he went around hunting apostles, that is to say the Beast of Darkness. The instant Guts is able to put aside his hateful thoughts for Griffith is the instant his mind will heal, and he will fight that battle not for revenge anymore.