@Kitsune:
I'm inclined to agree with you, generally. Lynching is the best weapon we have as Town, and it's the only information we can rely on as being 100% the truth that we can generate ourselves. However, I am a little reticent to build a wagon, sheerly because of the size of the game. What if there are three Mafia? We should probably gauge just how many mislynches we have as soon as we can.
That makes a lot of sense, knowing how many times the town can screw up will definitely impact how I feel about continuing to pursue a lynch today.
@Kitsune:
Someone may have given you a better, less technical answer than this, but basically, a no-lynch usually produces 1 death, with 1 being guaranteed not-Scum. Therefore, the Scum eliminates 1 town player and 0 scum, with a net loss of 1 townie. A lynch will generate either a correct lynch (which produces 2 deaths, 1 scum and 1 not-scum, net loss 0) or a mislynch (which produces 0 scum deaths and 2 not-scum deaths, net loss 2). This does not take into account Doctors, Serial Killers, Vigilantes, Gunsmiths, etc. which shift the net losses for the town in myriad different ways. Generally speaking, No lynches ARE useful when we know we are more than 2 losses away from a Scum win. And they can be useful if we know that we are an odd number of losses away from a scum win, but that depends on the amount of information we have. If that makes sense.
In our case, as of right now, we don't know how many net losses we can take before Scum wins. Assuming there are 2 mafia, we can afford 5 losses (or 2 mislynches, net 2 loss remember?), assuming 3 mafia, we can afford only 3 (or 1 mislynch). However, we don't know enough about the mafia count nor the players. Sorry if that's confusing.
Thank you very much! That was super informative, and I follow you on everything except for the bolded part. It seems to me like you're saying that being more than two losses away (more than one mislynch, or two nights with no lynches) is a situation in which a no lynch can be beneficial. Why is a no lynch possibly beneficial in this case? For the additional discussion time?
Can you also explain why having an odd number of losses available creates a similar scenario? I get that a mislynch in this case is likely to push a mafia win one day closer.
@Kitsune:
The game started like right before a holiday during a long weekend, so I was a little busy. :P But that doesn't change that, yes, an inactive townie is worse than an active scum.
That's a fair excuse, though I suppose you could have had ulterior motives to avoiding discussion until the last quarter of the day. But for now, you've definitely cleared your name in my eyes.
@Kitsune:
Kirbycide: I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for your wagonjumping because you seem to be new to these games, but you seem very eager to get on a wagon. Any wagon.
I've been acting under the assumption that more town-controlled kills is better for the town, even if we make a mislynch. This early in the game, I see it as another way for us to gain information to work with tomorrow. But as I've already mentioned, if we can guarantee only one loss between now and the next day phase, it might make our work a little easier when it comes to piecing together what is still unclear about the game rules/setting.
@Kitsune:
Is there any player you would NOT be comfortable lynching right now and why?
For the most part, after hearing what everyone's had to say, I don't particularly want to lynch anyone anymore. There are a few people I'm beginning to suspect of scummy behavior, but I think I've also learned that maybe I should be keeping more of my thoughts to myself, so I'm going to do that for now. I can go ahead and give you a few names of people I definitely wouldn't vote for at this point, though:
Jabberwok, Kirbycide, Kitsune Inferno, SkullJoke
β- Update From New Post Merge ---
I forgot to tell you why I wouldn't feel comfortable voting for them: Jabberwok, you, and SkullJoke have all been helpful and friendly, and I think a town that helps itself is a good town, so I'd like to keep you around.