As far as Oda's goals go. This is the same person that told his wife that OP would be done by 2014, so do we have to go over how these goals work again?
Yes, and its also the same guy that said "a crewmate will die next year" during SKypeia when Water 7 ran for three years. And who thought originally the series would be only 5 years. Obviously Oda is bad at predicting his pacing, we all know that.
But he's been giving increasingly closer estimates along the way. We hit the red line in 2008 and it was half way, (before the war and timeskip which took two years) and he's said 60% in 2012, 65-70% in 2015, 80% in 2018, and now "five years to go" pretty recently, multiple times. We've speculated over the years if those percentages mean in terms of chapters or years or arcs, but whatever they mean to Oda, he has been steadily getting closer to the end in his predictions. He's been basically on track to go for roughly 1200 chapters/120 volumes for a LONG time given all estimations, and still seems roughly on track for that, if a little bit further now, maybe 1250 or 1300. (Mostly on account of Cake Island going longer than expected.) But Wano is probably going to be a 2 year arc, rather than a 3 year battle extravaganza like was once expected, and the rest of the places we know of can probably be handled in 6 months-1 year each until the finale.
I don't think he's going to manage it in 5 years, there's too much left especially given his regular breaks. And I have no doubt the final war could end up scaling out of his control and take five or six years by itself. But he's said it multiple times now including correcting his editor, and a LOT of things he's doing in the actual story indicate ramp up to the actual end. He IS getting to that point and its starting to show in the story and how he's approaching things.
Oda doesn't know how long the story will be in pages, but he knows how long the story is in terms of things that still need to be done and his rough idea of how long those take and he seems to think he's getting to the end, so we should start believing him.