Wine moms vote though. Young activists do not. Again, we have seen this every single time. Disagree all you want, it happens every time. And if they are bitching about Biden because they refuse to learn how government works? They are a lost cause. Nice of you to see hope in them but this is where realism has to beat back vs false hope.
Anyway to go over the important senate races so we have an idea of what our chances look like giving it's a red year and we have this on shoulders.
First and most important senate race is the PA race. Fetterman is likely to get the Dem nom, he is a Bernie type with a bad racial optics but well known name might help Shrek here win. Upstart win would be the moderate Dem in Lamb who probably has a better shot but the name rec and money isn't there enough. Either man will likely face off vs Dr. Oz who was on TV and wants an easy job like his show. This is a lean R race but an upset here would be a great sign we won't be truly defeated nation wide.
Next up is Ohio with Tim Ryan vs JD Vance. Very uphill battle for Ryan but Ryan seems to have finally gotten smarter since his dumb Speaker and President runs and he seems ready for Vance. Very likely R but an upset is gonna ensure at least senate wise we should be safe.
Losing abortion rights could help these race push over the edge for the Dems and that would be enough to get past the fillabuster. Fetterman (and Lamb) and Ryan are for getting rid of it. Still we have at least 4 seats we also have to defend and maybe some odd picks up/more likely pick ups if PA and/or Ohio are won.
First up in the safe zone of defense seats is NH. Mostly because the top 3 picks for the GOP are not running which makes Senator Hassan a likely favorite in a year that should not be kind to her. Pretty lean D and the most likely seat we keep.
Then we have Warnock in GA. This one is odd. He pills better than that Texan Trump endorsed for the race by a few points whereas in the governor races Stacy is not doing great vs Kemp or even Predue if he were to get the nom. Might be a very odd ball race split. Warnock is a strong senator though and he knew how to win in 2020 but anti-voter laws will be tough on him. AI say this one is a toss-up with a tiny itty bity lean towards Warnock but only because of how strong he is and more focus fire is on Abrams.
Next up is AZ. Weird one to defend as well but Dems seem like they got the energy there and Kelly has brought in the biggest load of war chest but as always money doesn't usually win elections but they can help. He also polls well but I think a lot depends on who he will be facing. So kind of a toss up with a lot still resting on where Biden's numbers will be come Nov.
NV is a another defending state that should have people worried. You have two bad things going for it. Bernie bro types control the state party now so get ready to lose it a bit in the near future as they are making blunders and Senator Cortez Masto is one of those Dem senators that hide until election time which uhhhhh don't need a repeat of Florida 2018 here. Still NV usually come out as blue and that gets dismissed a lot. I do think it will swing but probably not this year.
Other races to watch out for are the NC race, WI might flip if Ron Johnson keeps up the crazy and if Chuck Grassley dies before Nov he might lose in Iowa but his dead body will have a decent shot all the same.
Races to not get your hopes up are in Florida because while Val is a great nom, she won't be taking out Rubio and the Utah race with Evan McMullin as an independent is a huge waste of time. KY too because a Bernie type is not beating Rand Paul. No way, no how.
I don't think the House will be won or if it is, it will be truly razor thin which is very unlikely. But the senate? Yeah our best case and most realistic chance is still gonna be a 50-50 split which is enough for justices and such. A better case would be winning 2+ seats which is the sweet spot of what we need to aim for. A more realistic case is losing 1 to 3 seats which still isn't a super majority. That's for sure not happening this year regardless of the GOP's chances.