I was done talking about the hypo strategy 72 hours ago. Go ahead and call it dumb. You are correct.
Do you see how it was Jabber and Wooden who brought up the firefighter today?
Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple
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Yup. I'm waiting for them to reply. Especially Wooden.
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@Jabber: What are your current feeling in a Shinobu lynch? How do you see Shuhan's vote on him?
I see it as pissing me off. We have no new information compared to yesterday and yet now is the time to start/join a wagon on Shinobu? He was at L-1 yesterday. The time was then. As Wooden has pointed out, he's either scum or left unprimed, which means our relative value of lynching him has gone down by virtue of removing the possibility of a wasted priming.
If Shuhan were serious about his vote, I'd want to see more direct questioning of Shinobu instead of apparently appealing to everyone else. Shuhan seems pretty scummy to me right now.
That's not to say Shinobu isn't worth lynching. His statements to start the day seem very dubious and, at best, contain pretty faulty logic. I'd like to see more from Shinobu clarifying them and defending himself.
Side note: what value do people see in attempting to guess that arsonists' strategy in picking targets? Some of the usual tactics don't really apply as much here.
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@Space: I actually had the reason typed out, but I removed it to retype it just as my train pulled in, so I quickly posted and forgot about it. I see that you did in fact reply to that post, my bad on missing that. I did explain that my vote towards you was mostly a gut feeling, and that it's because at the time Shuhan didn't seem like as active a threat.I still find you hella scummy for little reason outside of what's been said, but I'm still glad I placed my vote. Even if I wasn't participating in the active wagon, I still made a stance and voted.@Shinobu:
I feel like the forest got too close to doing something they wouldnt have liked.I might have been 1 vote away and being a stump might not be so bad, wasnt on a lot by the end of the day.However, i was around enough to be ready to claim, if needed to. And instead i didnt have to at all because of how it went all went down. All in all, i feel lucky that i didnt get lynched, and i would like to think mafia didnt bother priming me considering that i seem to be main lynch interest at the current time.
If you were around enough to claim whatever you are "if you needed to"…why didn't you? You were literally one vote from being lynched, and at least one person has already expressed that they would have hammered had they been around. What was making you wait?To clarify, I'm not asking what your role is.At the risk of seeming scummy, I'm following Huschel's pursuing of Shuhan right now with a close eye. This seems scummy because most of my opinions seem like they're just "Haha, Huschel's right!", which isn't entirely unfounded.
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With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Shinobu Mahara (1): Shuhan
Shuhan (1): Huschel
Not Voting (7): Jabberwok, Kitsune Inferno, le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy, Wooden_Giraffe
More than 24 hours remaining in the Day.
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Ok, so what's you idea? Going for an inactive person, or someone you believe may be primed?
Dude, you literally just bolded where I said I wouldn't be factoring in someone potentially being primed just yet. And on top of that, there are more options then those two. As you can obviously tell, I haven't let off of you. Now if Crys fails to show up and contribute today then I'll be all for lynching her. Inactives don't need to be a focus of discussion other then us prodding them to post. We all know and agree that they are detrimental.
@Huschel:Do you see how it was Jabber and Wooden who brought up the firefighter today?
@SpaceCowboy:Yup. I'm waiting for them to reply. Especially Wooden.
No I didn't, where on earth are the two of you getting that from?
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Your reason for no lynching was the fact that you wanted more people capable of voting today. Lynching a lurker would have had that same effect. So no, that would not have gone against your stance from yesterday.
What practical information have you gleamed from the several wagons forming?Just because that is how you interpreted my stance, doesn't make your conclusion correct. I was only against voting on first day because we had no real info until the end of the day. Aside from that, that that we had so many wagons means that I am almost certain a Scum voted somewhere. It was the safest situation for scum to do it while seemingly acting on their vote, while Shinobu stayed with their no lynch status.
That is not what I meant. You wrote that somebody was going to be primed no matter if they were stumped or not? As in if we had lynched somebody to a stump they might have been primed?
Please refer back to my question to the mods. I asked if everyone was able to be primed and lit on fire. Galaxy told us yes. So it is safe to assume that the scum are able to prime anyone, including themselves. The ones who are in the most danger are the stumps because they are a free tree spot, meaning that they still count to the majority to the trees.
Why?
Please see my first response in this post.
This is it? You wanted a no lynch and you wanted to see how others would react to your stance of wanting a no lynch. Which to you was a reasonable stance to have but because Shinobu has agreed with your stance that makes him suspicious? More like an easy target. You could have lynched him yesterday but now you got an extra night to do your thing.
considering I am a heavy sleeper at night, I do little to nothing at night. At this point see below.
I stated how Shinobu's post was easy to be misinterpreted. I can 100% see Shinobu thinking that claiming Tree would make some sort of difference. He didn't actually imply that he was the firefighter but Jabberwock and Wooden both understood the post as such. I despise misunderstandings and am trying to nip this one in the bud. Or maybe Shinobu is the firefighter. But Space would tell us that we shouldn't talk about that.
See this right here, there is no real misunderstanding. You seem really interested in protecting Shinobu's claim, willing to not question them on it and dismiss it as them claiming tree. The problem with this line of thinking is there is no benefit for claiming tree here. You are either one firefighter, either two mafia, or the rest of the forest. For an intellectual as yourself, you really can't see the forest for the trees.
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Getting ready for uni today will be posting my thoughts over the next hour or so. Just so people know i actually plan on replying.
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(1) Dude, you literally just bolded where I said I wouldn't be factoring in someone potentially being primed just yet. And on top of that, there are more options then those two. As you can obviously tell, I haven't let off of you. Now if Crys fails to show up and contribute today then I'll be all for lynching her. Inactives don't need to be a focus of discussion other then us prodding them to post. We all know and agree that they are detrimental.
(2) No I didn't, where on earth are the two of you getting that from?
(1) The "not this soon"? Iinterpreted that differently. That's my bad.
(2) This I reckon:
@Wooden_Giraffe:Shinobu, why on earth would you claim now? There isn't a single vote currently on you?
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@Kitsune: Yesterday you were very much in favor of a lynch, I get that you overslept but you have to understand how bad that looks, your only saving grace at this point is that crys still hasn't showed up since her first post and is the biggest inactive liability at this point. Otherwise I'd see you as the top inactive target.
Yeah, that's fair. I haven't been able to give this as much attention as I'd like, and in the end, if we feel like we need to lynch somebody for being inactive, I think I'd be a good candidate. I obviously think we should focus on lynching the arsonists, but if it clears my name in the end, it's probably worth letting it happen.
That said, le crystal's inactivity is concerning. But I think there are bigger fish to fry.
Vote Lynch: Shuhan
My reasoning is that I don't buy that "I advocated for no lynch just to gauge reactions" stuff for a second. I'm convinced that one of Shinobu, Space, or Shuhan is an arsonist and right now I'm leaning Shuhan because of his inactivity in Day 1 and sudden gungho attitude shift in Day 2.
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For everybody, including Shinobu:
The first bolded part implies that Shinobu is a tree. The second bolded part does suggest that Shinobu would have claimed firefighter because any other claim wouldn't change anything. So I can see why people are questioning him about that. But in my opinion there's nothing there.
Why not push further on this? You're blaming me and Wooden for bringing up the firefighter when you yourself recognize the implicit claim in Shinobu's post. Not to mention the contradiction right before it.
Intending to claim naturally implies crucial information, which claiming Vanilla never is. There's really no reason to think that claiming Tree would have any impact on the vote. And saying he was gambling on inactivity to keep him alive instead of claiming something important doubles my suspicion that Shinobu is just bullshitting us.
Why defend him so much? If we lynch Shinobu and he flips Mafia, I think there's a decent chance you're his scum buddy.
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A decent chance, sure. I understand that. But I was also very willing to let him go yesterday. If he flips arsonist I'll have to deal with that then. I'd rather see Shuhan's flip though.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
And I already started defending Shinobu yesterday before I put him at L-1. He's confusing to me but if I had to guess, I wouldn't say he's mafia.
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Herm… Day extention?
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We've got another ~20 hours and two wagons. I think we're ok for now.
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Please refer back to my question to the mods. I asked if everyone was able to be primed and lit on fire. Galaxy told us yes. So it is safe to assume that the scum are able to prime anyone, including themselves. The ones who are in the most danger are the stumps because they are a free tree spot, meaning that they still count to the majority to the trees.
I actually missed this, but this can't be correct, right? ARe you talking about "majority" in "lynch majority"?
Stumps can't vote. Basically if we lynched 5 Trees they would all be stumps. According to this we would have 9 "players", but 5 of them can't vote. We can't reach a majority.
Hell, even before that that would mean that without mafia cooperation we couldnt reach a majorityGame would be over with 3 tree lynches. Or 4, it's late and my math may be off.
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I actually missed this, but this can't be correct, right? ARe you talking about "majority" in "lynch majority"?
Stumps can't vote. Basically if we lynched 5 Trees they would all be stumps. According to this we would have 9 "players", but 5 of them can't vote. We can't reach a majority.
Hell, even before that that would mean that without mafia cooperation we couldnt reach a majorityGame would be over with 3 tree lynches. Or 4, it's late and my math may be off.
I'm speaking about the majority for the scum to overcome. When we lynch, we just strip the lynchee of their vote, but they are still technically alivee. It's only when the arsonists set their fires do people truly die, otherwise the cardinal rule about the dead speaking after they bit the dust would apply.
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I think you're looking at this wrong. Stumps aren't alive so much as they are ghosts who can still influence conversation. They have no vote so they can't be counted as for, against, or abstaining in a lynch vote. And since they have no vote, they'll be the arsonists' least priority to kill.
Anyways, as much as I'd like to pursue a lynch on Shinobu or Shuhan, le crystal hasn't posted in over four days. That's unacceptable and unfortunately needs to be our priority.
Vote Lynch: le crystal
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With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Shinobu Mahara (1): ShuhanShuhan (2): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno
le crystal (1): Jabberwok
Not Voting (5): le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy, Wooden_Giraffe
Just under 13 hours left.
Hidden:
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With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Shinobu Mahara (1): ShuhanShuhan (2): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno
le crystal (1): Jabberwok
Not Voting (5): le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy, Wooden_Giraffe
Just under 13 hours left.
Bell, while I have you, do stumps still count as part of the town? Rather, as long as they are still here, scum cannot win with majority?
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Bell, while I have you, do stumps still count as part of the town? Rather, as long as they are still here, scum cannot win with majority?
While I'd take Galaxy's word on this as the absolute final one in case I'm wrong (and he may not be able to be on for a while, he had an urgent matter come up), I'm almost positive that Tree-Stumps do not officially count as part of the Town. This is because Tree-Stumps do not have a vote and don't count as a vote for endgame purposes, and Arsonists win if they're the only ones left alive or nothing can prevent this from occurring. If, say, you were down to 2 Arsonists, 2 Trees, and 2 Tree-Stumps, it would not be counted as 4-2 Town/Mafia, because the Tree-Stumps can't vote, so it would really be 2-2, in which Forest can't prevent Arsonists from being the only ones left alive eventually -> Arsonists would win.
Basically, the sole perk a Tree gets is the post-lynch talking ability, and even then, Tree-Stumps can also be primed and ignited by Arsonists, which, like the normal Trees, would destroy them and keep them from being able to contribute to the thread anymore in any way.
Hope this helps.
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Post #146- i felt like there wasnt anything there either but here we are..
Post #147- i would have advocated for a no lynch regardless of who wanted to. Albeit hearsay at this point. I know others didnt like that, but thats as equally my choice as anyone else. Its just i was the only one okay with having 1 more person by the time D3 comes around, if indeed someone dies. Not a popular opinion, but i got my way in the end.
Post #149- finally someone that can see some sense in something i say
Post #153- can you specify what you want me to defend myself on, this is just asking for more confusion if i dont ask beforehand.
Post #154- I was around enough to make sure i could have claimed, i was checking in every half hour or so for a couple hours there. I guess i wasnt really held back by anything, it just seemed so quite at the time that i thought doing nothing would be the best solution. Even if i had of posted at day end anyway, i couldnt have made anyone vote except me cause i was the only one around at time (in terms of online status as far as i can tell, closer towards 5 hours until day end)
Post #162- you just explained me in a sentence, clearly jabberwok missed the memo.
Post #167- interested to see what he does have to say when he does finally reappear. Maybe having a different pair of eyes will make things clearer somehow. -
Alright. Do I lynch an inactive or my suspect? Lynching crys is so boring. I'd like to find out if I'm any good at this game and I need to see Shuhan's flip for that. I came here to play and win, not to do cleanup.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Oh, one more thing.
Tree-stumps cannot vote, and do not count as a vote for endgame purposes.
This is a genuine quote from the real rules linked to us.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
To add to that:
Arsonist
(…)
Win Condition
- You win when only Arsonist aligned players are left alive, or nothing can prevent this from occurring.
Tree
(…)
Abilities
- Stumped: Upon being lynched you become Tree-stumped. This means you will still be allowed to post in the thread, but you will not have a vote. Being killed in any other way overrides this ability, and will cause you to be removed from the game.
The bolded part means that stumped trees have been killed. Killed players are not alive. Arsonists win when only Arsonist aligned players are left alive. Therefore they don't have to care about stumps.
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I'm currently a bit busy.
Ill be back to vote for either Shuhan or Le Crystak before the day ends, but if everyone fewls like its wirth, i would be fine with a day extention to have time ro ask shuhan a couple of questions.
Vote: Day Extention
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Might be a bit busy today so I'm laying down both a extension vote and a vote on crys, which seems the most productive move at this point.
Vote Lynch: le crystal
Vote: Day Extension -
With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Shinobu Mahara (1): ShuhanShuhan (2): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno
le crystal (2): Jabberwok, Wooden_Giraffe
Not Voting (4): le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy
With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to extend the Day. Day Extension (3): Huschel, Space Cowboy, Wooden_Giraffe Not Voting (6): Jabberwok, Kitsune Inferno, le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, Shuhan, SomebodyUDon'tKnow
A little under 4 hours left.
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Vote: Day Extension
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Vote: Day Extension
Will be available proper in about 12 hours or so.
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With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Shinobu Mahara (1): ShuhanShuhan (2): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno
le crystal (2): Jabberwok, Wooden_Giraffe
Not Voting (4): le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy
With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to extend the Day. Day Extension (4): Space Cowboy, Wooden_Giraffe, Huschel, SomebodyUDon'tKnow Not Voting (5): Jabberwok, Kitsune Inferno, le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, Shuhan
Not quite 2.5 hours left.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Just a heads-up that, if we don't get another Day Extension vote and the Day is ended in an hour, I have a meeting just before then, so I'll come back to end the Day officially as soon as I can.
If there is another Day Extension vote and the Day continues, feel free to carry on normally with the discussion, and I will officially announce the Day Extension when I return. Unless somebody does so within the next 45-ish minutes, and then I'll probably still be here to announce it.
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I'm not entirely sure how to express my frustration at this point.
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Vote Lynch: Le Crystal
I'm still around to change to Shuhan if there's no other choice, but I hope we can get one more vote to extend the day.
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I'm not entirely sure how to express my frustration at this point.
Vote Lynch: Le Crystal
I'm still around to change to Shuhan if there's no other choice, but I hope we can get one more vote to extend the day.
This is incredibly frustrating. I don't really think Shuhan is mafia but there's some decent suspicion on him. The three of us can avoid another wasted day if we lynch now.
Le crystal would still be my preferred lynch but I don't know that the votes are present for it.
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I mean, a lot of people have suddenly shifted their attention from Shinobu for some god damn reason. His last post got no replies at all.
Also, Shuhan's only been inquired by pretty much one person, who has built the entire wagon. Most of the people that feel confortable voting or him haven't really given a reason other than "Oh yeah, he looks scummy for some reason."
I'm fine with voting for him right now. Mostly because another day with no lynches would be ridiculous, but if getting an extension would make us lynch LC and further question Shuhan and whoever else that looks odd, wouldn't you want to give it a try?
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
ANd yeah, I understand that it's annoying like fuck to spend another 24 hours on this.
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At this point I'm fine switching, but Jabs you can extend the day, we only need one more for that.
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**Vote: Unvote Le Crystal
Vote Lynch: Shuhan**
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Unvote
Vote Lynch: Shuhan -
Hm, good reasoning Space. I'm still skeptical that extending will really achieve anything but I suppose it's worth a try.
Vote: Time Extension
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vote: day extend
I am here if anyone needs me
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Huh. Well, I suppose there's no point in lynching Shuhan right after the day's been extended.
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Vote: Unvote Shuhan I'll write more in 2 hours once I'm able to properly sit in front of a PC. Doing it through smartohne sucks.
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I find it mildly amusing that people want to lynch me on the basis of one player who has no problem protecting Shinobu's supposed tree claim.
Everyone who has voted me: Aside from Huschel's points, do I really seem that scummy? Please use your own work.
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Okay, time for more questions.
Shuhan: you said earlier today that you were against lynching as a way to gauge people's reactions. What did you make of them? And what's different between today and yesterday that made you feel comfortable putting a vote early on Shinobu?
Space: a couple people have mentioned you as a potential suspect but there hasn't been a widespread move against you. Why do you think people like Shinobu or Shuhan have been higher priority than you?
Huschel: you mentioned a willingness to lynch le crystal if need be, but you haven't been around in the past several hours. How would you have reacted if we hadn't achieved a lynch?
Shinobu: I want to follow up on your response later since there's still imo a bunch of backwards logic, but I'd like to offer you the chance to name some of your own suspicious persons since I don't think you've done that yet. Do you have reads on anyone or have any questions for people?
@le:
Am I a ghost? Or was I ever here at all?
We miss you. Come play with us.
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The Day has been extended. Day 2 will now end tomorrow, Wednesday March 21st, at 3:10 PM EDT. With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Shinobu Mahara (1): ShuhanShuhan (3): Huschel, Kitsune Inferno, Wooden_Giraffe
le crystal (1): Jabberwok
Not Voting (4): le crystal, Shinobu Mahara, SomebodyUDon'tKnow, SpaceCowboy
A bit less than 23 hours left in the Day.
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Here's D1 vote padron (the reasons may be incomplete. Criticize at will):
Huschel - Shinobu (1) - Very early in the Day, supposedely because of his lack of rule understanding
Huschel - Kitsune (1) - Mid way through the Day, for inactivity
Huschel - Unvote - For… reasons? I guess because he thought I was acting scummish
Jabber - Shinobu (1) - No lynch + poor grasp of rules
Huschel - Shuhan (1) - No lynch + inactivity
SUDK - Space (1) - For not answering a question
Space - LC (1) - Absent
Woody - Space (2) - 4th wagon
Space - Shinobu (2) - Time was running out
Woody - Shinobu (3) - Time was running out
Huschel - Shinobu (4) Time was running outNot voting (4): le crystal, Kitsune Inferno, Shinobu Mahara, Shuhan
Blue votes are early in the day, when there's still some time for discussion.
Red is already when we were getting near the final hours of the Day and strong wagons were forming.The first exercise we should try to do individually is looking at this "map" and try to think why a mafia player would or wouldn't vote/join wagons at certain times.
LC and Kitsune were absent. Shinobu and Shuhan had the no lynch stance excuse.
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On Huschel: One thing I noticed while re reading D1 is that he was never really on Shinobu's case. Most of the times he approached him was due to talk about rules of the game. Even on post #68 where he was talking with Shinobu about more substancial scum hunting matters, he ends up voting for KI.
Compared to his restless attack on me and Shuhan, it feels like he treated Shinobu very lightly. And that has been talked about during this Day.The only saving grace is his vote for Shinobu roughly 45 minutes before the end of the Day. Would a mafia member risk lynching his own teammate on D1? Would a mafia member place his teammate at L-1? If Huschel is a mafia member, was he confident on the absence of KI and LC?
On SUDK: This one still shocks me.
So, we have 2 people that advocated for a no Lynch. 2 that have been absent for God kknows how long, and SUDK casts a vote roughly 7 hours for the end of Day, starts a wagon which he wasn't here to defend and leaves. Why not do this earlier? And why didn't he continued pursuing me during D2? I'll cross out this last question cuz SUDK himself said he was busy today, but I don't understand why he didn't leave more questions/accusations for me in his post #154.
This one seems like a mafia-like wagon. It really won't have a big chance of taking off, so with no lynch, the wagon started would never be questioned further about it.
At the same time, it allows the voter to look like a diligent townie looking for Scum.
On @Woody: I'll concede that starting the 4th wagon was not wise (even if I was here to change it if needed), but what about you that voted for me? What were you thinking when you did it? Were you expecting the wagon to take off? Or was it more of a scare vote? Were you thinking about changing it?
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On Jabber: I guess the most inconsequent of all in terms of leaving room to suspect the voter. He started a wagon on someone that was under fire. Ok.
@Huschel: Me, Shuhan and Shinobu were somehow placed on the same bag of suspicious characters because of our no-lynch stance.
But the way you inquired Shinobu was very different from the way you questioned me and Shuhan.
Any reason?Also
Shuhan #147:
Huschel: why do you believe there is nothing there with Shinobu? For someone who wants tou hound me to near lynch, going soft here seems unlike you.#148 -" I stated how Shinobu's p__ost was easy to be misinterpreted. I can 100% see Shinobu thinking that claiming Tree would make some sort of difference. He didn't actually imply that he was the firefighter but Jabberwock and Wooden both understood the post as such. I despise misunderstandings and am trying to nip this one in the bud. Or maybe Shinobu is the firefighter. But Space would tell us that we shouldn't talk about that."
Shuhan actually has a point here. For someone that layed 2 votes on Shinobu on 2 different periods, you seem (again) very relaxed when it come to him.
Also, you restricted your answer to his D2 post. But that isn't related to your D1 votes on him.@Shinobu @Shinobu:
Post #149- finally someone that can see some sense in something i say
Post #154- I was around enough to make sure i could have claimed, i was checking in every half hour or so for a couple hours there. I guess i wasnt really held back by anything, it just seemed so quite at the time that i thought doing nothing would be the best solution. Even if i had of posted at day end anyway, i couldnt have made anyone vote except me cause i was the only one around at time (in terms of online status as far as i can tell, closer towards 5 hours until day end)I reckon that everyone understood what you meant on your post. Jabber himself said that your "lynching value" went down because the mafia wouldn't target you.
However your claim at this point doesn't really say anything. You claimed you were around to claim if necessary. You were at L-1. Chances are, the guy that would hammer you wouldn't ask you to claim, he would go straight for the kill.
Then the next day the first thing you do is say you are a tree. What's up with that? Not claiming D1 is one thing, doing it D2 is another.@Jabber: Can you explain to me exactly why you voted for Shinobu on D1 and are still very suspicious of him on D2?
Also, Shinobu #144 says this:" Im saying that had any mafia been online (that havent already voted against me) would have hammered me for sure, because of the very reason of people wanting a first day lynch, quite a lot might i add." - What are your feelings on this?
Also, I've made a lot of accusation about Hushcel's stance on Shinobu during this post. You yourself noticed that on #161. What do you think of it?@Shuhan: "The real point of me going for no lynch yesterday was to really gage reactions from other players. Don't get me wrong, I never lied and wanted a no lynch yesterday, but it was interesting to see who agreed with my position. Shinobu was a prime example and now with this ridiculous soft claim, not to mention the wording feels all wrong. "
I also agreed with your position. Kind of.
Why not vote for me or question me?#157 : "Just because that is how you interpreted my stance, doesn't make your conclusion correct. I was only against voting on first day because we had no real info until the end of the day. Aside from that, that that we had so many wagons means that I am almost certain a Scum voted somewhere. It was the safest situation for scum to do it while seemingly acting on their vote, while Shinobu stayed with their no lynch status." Can you explain this again? Because if a Scum voted, then it was either SUDK on me, or one of the 4 in Shinobu's wagon. If Shinobu is Scum, would there really be another Scum in his wagon?
#157: "See this right here, there is no real misunderstanding. You seem really interested in protecting Shinobu's claim, willing to not question them on it and dismiss it as them claiming tree. The problem with this line of thinking is there is no benefit for claiming tree here. You are either one firefighter, either two mafia, or the rest of the forest." I actually agree with this. What do you think is Huschel's end game here?
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On Huschel: One thing I noticed while re reading D1 is that he was never really on Shinobu's case. Most of the times he approached him was due to talk about rules of the game. Even on post #68 where he was talking with Shinobu about more substancial scum hunting matters, he ends up voting for KI.
Compared to his restless attack on me and Shuhan, it feels like he treated Shinobu very lightly. And that has been talked about during this Day.The only saving grace is his vote for Shinobu roughly 45 minutes before the end of the Day. Would a mafia member risk lynching his own teammate on D1? Would a mafia member place his teammate at L-1? If Huschel is a mafia member, was he confident on the absence of KI and LC?
I noticed this too. I mentioned that Huschel and Shinobu might be in cahoots based on Shinobu's distractions and Huschel's light defense of such but that's not the only possibility. Huschel might have innocent sympathy for someone who doesn't pick up on all the rules, or maybe Huschel is cozying up to Shinobu to earn his trust. Hard to say.
That said, I 100% believe Huschel, if mafia, would bus Shinobu. It's a common tactic to create separation between scum, and Huschel needed to remain consistent with his earlier stance of favoring a lynch. I don't think it should be considered evidence disproving their potential guilt.
@Jabber: Can you explain to me exactly why you voted for Shinobu on D1 and are still very suspicious of him on D2?
Also, Shinobu #144 says this:" Im saying that had any mafia been online (that havent already voted against me) would have hammered me for sure, because of the very reason of people wanting a first day lynch, quite a lot might i add." - What are your feelings on this?
Also, I've made a lot of accusation about Hushcel's stance on Shinobu during this post. You yourself noticed that on #161. What do you think of it?The D1 vote was because I saw him as potentially the least helpful player who also fit my (somewhat poorly considered in hindsight) profile of 'against a D1 lynch.' The frequent questions about roles made it seem to me like he'd perhaps received a different role and I was taking a bet that it wasn't firefighter.
Those early D2 posts form the basis of the majority of my suspicion now. There are so many fallacies in them that they're difficult to tackle. The behavior of just watching silently as he got to L-1 instead of posting any kind of defense. The idea that claiming Tree, assuming that's what he was implying there, would change anyone's mind since that's the safest thing to claim. The strategy of expecting a final offer in the waning minutes of the day instead of an instant lynch the moment someone came on. The assumption that the mafia would prefer a lynch right away, or that his not being lynched is proof that the mafia either weren't available or had already voted for him (as opposed to, you know, HIM). There's just so much headscratching there.
Huschel's soft treatment of Shinobu is very disconcerting, as we both agree. But on the other hand, would the mafia so obviously link themselves like that?
If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life
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Huschel's soft treatment of Shinobu is very disconcerting, as we both agree. But on the other hand, would the mafia so obviously link themselves like that?
This is my biggest problem right now.
In a normal game where LC and Kitsune were more participative, this kind of behaviour would almost go unnoticed because we would have more posts, accusations and theories flying around. In a game with them, Shinobu would also be lynched and we could have taken a different approach to it.I really want Shuhan to reply to what I wrote and you asked him before taking a final stance, but I reckon that right now the lynchee will either be him, Shinobu or LC.
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Forgot to reply to this:
Space: a couple people have mentioned you as a potential suspect but there hasn't been a widespread move against you. Why do you think people like Shinobu or Shuhan have been higher priority than you? I would say that I have been able to justify my head scratching actions and stances a lot better than them.
The main accusations on me were the non-lynch stance, Husche is lying thing on D1 and the forth wagon. I justified them all and was here to properly explained my thoughts behind each of them. -
Shinobu: I want to follow up on your response later since there's still imo a bunch of backwards logic, but I'd like to offer you the chance to name some of your own suspicious persons since I don't think you've done that yet. Do you have reads on anyone or have any questions for people?
Okay so you simply want me to display the people that I may find suspicious.. I can do that. Huschel im sitting on the edge, cause they are probably the day times best read. However not really based on much, I find it a little concerning that Huschel said that they believed they were safe for the night, which i realize was only one post but it still caught my eye. Not only that but aside from wooden agreeing with the idea that I wouldnt have been targeted due to lower lynch values. Huschel seemingly has been the only real one to consistently defend me.
Whether that says anything, no idea to be honest but i do find it weird.
I dont suspect jabs, cause at this point he hasn't really done anything that i would really deem unacceptable. Smiting le crys would have been incredibly lame, and im glad we avoided from doing so.
Asking me this, hard question to answer, not gonna lie. It's D2 and nothing has even happened yet really. I'd like to go to the effort of thinking that mafia had already placed their vote for me.If anything, my opinion is that it was quite probable that only one mafia had voted against me, and the other never got the chance to come back to vote, otherwise it my lynch surely would have happened.
@Shinobu
I reckon that everyone understood what you meant on your post. Jabber himself said that your "lynching value" went down because the mafia wouldn't target you.
However your claim at this point doesn't really say anything. You claimed you were around to claim if necessary. You were at L-1. Chances are, the guy that would hammer you wouldn't ask you to claim, he would go straight for the kill.
Then the next day the first thing you do is say you are a tree. What's up with that? Not claiming D1 is one thing, doing it D2 is another.Not claiming day 1, perfectly understandable, fairly warranted from any player stand point. Claiming day (if you can even call that a proper claim) whats up with that, you say.. Aside from the potential of me being lynched today I guess i had no particular reason to claim. Getting the initial vote start of D2, scared me into thinking we'd actually start that wagon on me all over again but since you guys have noted that i am less of a risk now than what i was before.
I guess you'd call it taking an unnecessary risk, there really isn't much explanation I can give on this matter considering..Not sure if i fully got what I was meant to do there, considering im trying to do scriptwriting at uni currently but i will be checking frequently so I can explain more if people really need it, i just dont know what else i can say :)
Man, it is great to be back home..
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@Shinobu:
(1) miting le crys would have been incredibly lame, and im glad we avoided from doing so.
(2) If anything, my opinion is that it was quite probable that only one mafia had voted against me, and the other never got the chance to come back to vote, otherwise it my lynch surely would have happened.
(1) The problem with Crys is that it will eventually cripple our ability to lynch. Basically the arsonists just need to cut our numbers to a point where her vote would be decisive and wait for time to run out.
(2) Hypothesis: What if one of them is Shuhan? He wouldn't risk revealing himself so early, would he?
What's your overall read on his argumments on you?GL with scriptwriting.
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@Shinobu:
Asking me this, hard question to answer, not gonna lie. It's D2 and nothing has even happened yet really. I'd like to go to the effort of thinking that mafia had already placed their vote for me.
What, in your opinion, would 'something happening' be? Several members of the forest are of the opinion that the mafia will attempt to win all at once, giving us little opportunity to gain clues from their victims. I think it would be a mistake to wait for victims to crop up before attempting to draw conclusions. My concern with your playstyle is that you seem primarily concerned with minding your own business and zgiving everyone the benefit of the doubt instead of asking questions and trying to sniff out guilt yourself.
On that note, do you have any opinions on other members of the forest? Space and Shuhan, for instance, have both had some questions directed their way. Others like Wooden and SuDK haven't received much attention at all.
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And I already started defending Shinobu yesterday before I put him at L-1. He's confusing to me but if I had to guess, I wouldn't say he's mafia.So why vote for him twice?
@Space:
I mean, a lot of people have suddenly shifted their attention from Shinobu for some god damn reason. His last post got no replies at all.
Also, Shuhan's only been inquired by pretty much one person, who has built the entire wagon. Most of the people that feel confortable voting or him haven't really given a reason other than "Oh yeah, he looks scummy for some reason."
I'm fine with voting for him right now. Mostly because another day with no lynches would be ridiculous, but if getting an extension would make us lynch LC and further question Shuhan and whoever else that looks odd, wouldn't you want to give it a try?There is nothing wrong with pointing to what other people have found out and using it as a reason to suspect somebody. If a person is suspicious, they don't need unique evidence from every person pursuing them to seem scummy.
I find it mildly amusing that people want to lynch me on the basis of one player who has no problem protecting Shinobu's supposed tree claim.
Everyone who has voted me: Aside from Huschel's points, do I really seem that scummy? Please use your own work."Aside from the legitimate reasons to suspect me shown by Huschel, show me more evidence of my scummy behaviour that you found yourself."
@Space:
On SUDK: This one still shocks me.
So, we have 2 people that advocated for a no Lynch. 2 that have been absent for God kknows how long, and SUDK casts a vote roughly 7 hours for the end of Day, starts a wagon which he wasn't here to defend and leaves. Why not do this earlier? And why didn't he continued pursuing me during D2? I'll cross out this last question cuz SUDK himself said he was busy today, but I don't understand why he didn't leave more questions/accusations for me in his post #154.
This one seems like a mafia-like wagon. It really won't have a big chance of taking off, so with no lynch, the wagon started would never be questioned further about it.
At the same time, it allows the voter to look like a diligent townie looking for Scum. So I'm a Mafia, and I voted for a person towards the end of the day with no real wagon forming, and with no real attempt to form a wagon?I'm not completely sure what I hoped to accomplish, there, if I was Mafia.
If I was Town, though, I'd totally be doing that to make sure people know where my suspicions lie most heavily.
Also, the reason I haven't kept pursuing you (as I've stated) was that it was largely a gut move. Sure, you did that one thing I found suspicious, but other than that there wasn't much at the time.@Space: Why did you vote if you didn't want to vote for a D1 lynch?
@Shinobu:
Smiting le crys would have been incredibly lame, and im glad we avoided from doing so.So what do you think we should do about inactive players, then? Leave them be?
I am willing to lynch Le Crys today. I'm no longer willing to vote for Shinobu.
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Ew, that quoting mistake.
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Everyone who has voted me: Aside from Huschel's points, do I really seem that scummy? Please use your own work.
I would like this, too. Or alternatively, why do the things I point out about Shuhan not make him suspicious?
@Jabberwock:
Huschel: you mentioned a willingness to lynch le crystal if need be, but you haven't been around in the past several hours. How would you have reacted if we hadn't achieved a lynch?
I didn't, really. I said I preferred Shuhan and stuck to that. I called the lecrystal lynch boring. It doesn't give us as much as the Shuhan lynch. Lynching an inactive over an actual suspect (of mine) is the easy way out and only necessary when the inactive makes us lose immediately the next day. We should still have 8 players tomorrow.
How would I have reacted if we hadn't achieved a lynch? Badly.
@Jabberwock:
Shuhan: you said earlier today that you were against lynching as a way to gauge people's reactions. What did you make of them? And what's different between today and yesterday that made you feel comfortable putting a vote early on Shinobu?
It feels like this question has been asked half a dozen times and I have yet to get a satisfying answer.
@Huschel: Me, Shuhan and Shinobu were somehow placed on the same bag of suspicious characters because of our no-lynch stance.
But the way you inquired Shinobu was very different from the way you questioned me and Shuhan.
Any reason?Simply put, the answers Shinobu gave me made me think he was part of the Forest. He didn't get overly defensive and I get the feeling that he is genuinely trying to help.
On the other hand, Shuhan's answers don't sit right with me for the most part. I think I have already elaborated on that.
And with you, Space, you might have noticed that I have gone softer on you as well, lately. You made good points that I agreed with. So that leaves Shuhan.Shuhan actually has a point here. For someone that layed 2 votes on Shinobu on 2 different periods, you seem (again) very relaxed when it come to him.
Also, you restricted your answer to his D2 post. But that isn't related to your D1 votes on him.My first vote against Shinobu was when I was still highly suspicious of him. I relaxed towards him and unvoted at the same time - which, you know, makes sense. I put a second vote on Shinobu because I wanted to see a lynch happen. Just because I don't suspect Shinobu doesn't mean I believe myself to be 100% correct and that I am not allowed to follow other people in lynching him. I really wish he had flipped instead of nothing happening.
@Jabberwock:
That said, I 100% believe Huschel, if mafia, would bus Shinobu. It's a common tactic to create separation between scum, and Huschel needed to remain consistent with his earlier stance of favoring a lynch. I don't think it should be considered evidence disproving their potential guilt.
I 100% would bus my scum buddies in any give game. But not my only partner. On day 1. When me not voting would not have gotten much of a mention considering this Town's activity levels. If Shinobu flips arsonist, then by all means lynch me before you don't lynch anybody. Because then I can go back to scum hunting.
@SUDK:
So why vote for him [Shinobu] twice?
See above.
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So yeah, what is everybody's thoughts on Shuhan? Specifically those who did not vote for him. I'm not sure I can present my case any better but still.
