American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed
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Boom. Voted
If I could sign my ballot with "choke on my ass, Lee Zeldin." I would have
Set Art by Daily Rowlet -
Thank god my son is in school now. No accidental premature voting for me!
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Whelp, today is the scary day. Does the country prove we're better than the freak accident/conspiracy of 2016, or is most of the country actually okay with this awful, awful mess? And will the gerrymandering and voter suppression all win out?
Optimistic but nervous.
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Between the Gerrymandering and voter suppression, as well as the general apathy from idiots who continue to insist "Both Sides bad", I'm fairly confident Republicans are going to hold the House and Senate. Hell, they may even GAIN seats.
I'm still going to vote. I used the law of my state to get off early to vote, and I intend to vote D the whole way down the ticket here in AZ. When all hope dies it isn't going to be partially my fault.
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I don't think they're going to GAIN seats. That just seems impossible from everything we've seen unless the country is well and truly broken.
If the dems get enough to take the majority and function as an actual check is the question.
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Between the Gerrymandering and voter suppression, as well as the general apathy from idiots who continue to insist "Both Sides bad", I'm fairly confident Republicans are going to hold the House and Senate. Hell, they may even GAIN seats.
I'm still going to vote. I used the law of my state to get off early to vote, and I intend to vote D the whole way down the ticket here in AZ. When all hope dies it isn't going to be partially my fault.
Odds very strongly favor reclaiming the House. However, yes, the Senate is a longshot and always has been.
Also, given all of the above, the fact that we're seeing record turnouts for a midterm, if not in general, is also a hopeful sign. I can't imagine high turnout favors the party that consistently tries to prevent voting.
Nothing's guaranteed, of course, but let's save the doom and good for if and when things really do go as bad as your afraid they will
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I don't think they're going to GAIN seats. That just seems impossible from everything we've seen unless the country is well and truly broken.
If the dems get enough to take the majority and function as an actual check is the question.
They won't is what I'm saying.
I remember when Hillary was DEFINITELY going to win. even the safest predictions had her chances of winning in the 70% range.
She lost, and now we have Derp Führer.The Democrats are spineless idiots.
Gerrymandering is very much a thing
Voter suppression is very much a thing
Idiots who continue to think "Both sides are bad" and "The system is broken so voting is pointless".
With all these odds stacked against them, I flat out don't see how they can win. I don't want to be part of the problem, so I'm still going to vote, but I don't think it's going to result in anything.
This administration that hates people like me and intends to do us harm is going to continue unchekced for another 6+ years, and that thought is becoming increasingly depressing.
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They won't is what I'm saying.
I remember when Hillary was DEFINITELY going to win. even the safest predictions had her chances of winning in the 70% range.
She lost, and now we have Derp Führer.Well, that's just it, a lot of people did think Hillary was a shoe-in and thus may not have bothered to vote (that combined with gerrymandering and the James Comey crap)
The threat of a possible Trump presidency and the fact that we now have a Trump presidency are two different things.
At least that's what I'm hoping.
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Maricopa County went Full Georgia in terms of voter suppression. "Server outages", moved polling locations, buildings that were foreclosed overnight where there was a polling place, etc.
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They won't is what I'm saying.
I remember when Hillary was DEFINITELY going to win. even the safest predictions had her chances of winning in the 70% range.
She lost, and now we have Derp Führer.The Democrats are spineless idiots.
Gerrymandering is very much a thing
Voter suppression is very much a thing
Idiots who continue to think "Both sides are bad" and "The system is broken so voting is pointless".
With all these odds stacked against them, I flat out don't see how they can win. I don't want to be part of the problem, so I'm still going to vote, but I don't think it's going to result in anything.
This administration that hates people like me and intends to do us harm is going to continue unchekced for another 6+ years, and that thought is becoming increasingly depressing.
I totally get your fear, Rin. Between the uphill gerrymandering battle, more blatant voter suppression tactics than ever, and outright bullshit like faulty machines, it's easy to see the midterms going poorly.
BUT
Early voting, particularly among young people, is at an absurd high. While there's no doubt some people were egged on by Trump's incredibly racist caravan fearmongering, every poll and every special election has shown that Democrats have way more enthusiastic support. The polls right now have Dems at around an 85% chance to retake the House and that doesn't take in voter suppression or enthusiasm. I think those probably balance out.
For what it's worth, a co-worker and I have managed to rally/shame 5 or so of our peers who have never voted before into voting this election. None of them live in competitive districts, but there's enough impetus and importance there to be able to make it happen. That seems like it's happening across a lot of the country.
Democrats are VERY likely to retake the House, more than Hillary was favored in 2016. The Senate probably doesn't move much, but several governorships will flip too.
It's ok to be hopeful.
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They won't is what I'm saying.
I remember when Hillary was DEFINITELY going to win. even the safest predictions had her chances of winning in the 70% range.
She lost, and now we have Derp Führer.The Democrats are spineless idiots.
Gerrymandering is very much a thing
Voter suppression is very much a thing
Idiots who continue to think "Both sides are bad" and "The system is broken so voting is pointless".
With all these odds stacked against them, I flat out don't see how they can win. I don't want to be part of the problem, so I'm still going to vote, but I don't think it's going to result in anything.
This administration that hates people like me and intends to do us harm is going to continue unchekced for another 6+ years, and that thought is becoming increasingly depressing.
The factors that led to Hillary Clinton suffering the political equivalent of Mr Sandman being one shotted by Glass Joe aren't in play here, or aren't too the same degree
Clinton was an unpopular and polarizing candidate. Bernie Sanders stirred the pot pointlessly. Low turnout exacerbated the suppression and gerrymandering. Clinton's loss was in the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
Here we have multiple races where the candidates don't have the problem of polarization. Sanders has lost enough credibility that the Bernie Bros aren't nearly as prominent. Turnout is higher than it's been in ages, in one area early voting surpassed voting in 2014 period. Democratic voters displeasure of Trump is increasing turnout, including in demographics that don't normally vote, while that same thing is depressing Republican turnout. Gerrymandering and suppression are being actively resisted all over the place and their effects are being blunted by the aforementioned turnout. The Electoral College isn't a factor here, and we have an established pattern over the last two years' special elections of Democrats winning or doing far, far better than anyone would have expected. Even now, Ted Cruz may win re-election, but it's going to be a close thing if so. More so than one might expect in a generally red state.
I can't stop you from being pessimistic, Rin. Nor can I say you don't have plenty of reason to be so, given that post. However I also can't give that pessimism any real weight because, right now, there really is more reason to be optimistic than the reverse and, if I'm wrong about that when the day ends, you can at least have the pleasure of telling me "I told you so".
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Maricopa County went Full Georgia in terms of voter suppression. "Server outages", moved polling locations, buildings that were foreclosed overnight where there was a polling place, etc.
It's legit infuriating how the Republicans can get away with this shit so easily every time and then win because of it.
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Also "server outages" in Marion County, where Donnely needs to run up the vote to win.
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It's back, bitches!
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Pretty certain Republicans are losing the House tonight, and Democrats are going to win some nice, state level stuff too. Republicans will keep the Senate, for sure, but whatever… Without the House, Trump is fucked (a lame duck), and there are gonna be many more investigations into him and his people, as well as many more protections put into place for the Muller Investigation.
If Democrats do win the House, Trump is gonna bitch so damn much for the next 2 years on twitter and at his silly rallies.
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I have no faith in this country. But I'll go vote after work today. In other news. White terrorists revving their engines.
https://www.theroot.com/an-armed-extremist-group-in-georgia-is-threatening-viol-1830240135
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Darrell Issa basically gives up, predicts a Dem will have his seat tonight.
It's back, bitches!
The hero we deserve.
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@Cyan:
Darrell Issa basically gives up, predicts a Dem will have his seat tonight.
The hero we deserve.
Man, I WISH I could vote for Levin to flip Issa's old district. I'm like 2 miles from the boundary (in a district that has grown safely blue since 2012).
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Still early yet but turnout is middling here where I'm at so far. The early vote wasn't too terribly impressive either.
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Thankfully, I have an early ballot.
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Steve King represents my district so yeah, I definitely voted against the racist filth, hoping he crawls back undergrown and rejoin the fungus collective from where he came from.
While I'm not terribly hopeful for my district (I've met people who think as long as King doesn't admit to being racist, he isn't racist. Lol rural Iowa), I'm cautiously optimistic overall for midterms.
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I have no faith in this country. But I'll go vote after work today. In other news. White terrorists revving their engines.
https://www.theroot.com/an-armed-extremist-group-in-georgia-is-threatening-viol-1830240135
Speaking only for myself, I'm willing to extend faith until and unless we elect Donald Trump to a second consecutive term as President of the United States of America. That would constitute such a massive Fail from every angle that I would feel the country deserves whatever it gets
Waldorf: You know Statler, after watching the last one thousand episodes of One Piece, I think I've come to a conclusion.
Statler: No you haven't.
Both: DOHOHOHOHOHO!
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Speaking only for myself, I'm willing to extend faith until and unless we elect Donald Trump to a second consecutive term as President of the United States of America. That would constitute such a massive Fail from every angle that I would feel the country deserves whatever it gets
It doesn't help that Republicans are using every dirty tactic to make sure people not voting for them don't get counted.
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Welp, I just voted, so I've done my part. Though I'm not sure the Virginia elections are terribly important this time around.
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My polling place changed last minute. I just checked and it's different. Good thing I checked.
How many people did this happen to who HAVEN'T Checked!?
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CNN exit poll is fairly devastating for Republicans.
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And yes, I know early exit polls are almost always wrong.
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CNN exit poll is fairly devastating for Republicans.
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And yes, I know early exit polls are almost always wrong.
On the flip side, we have our first confirmed result, av Democrat governor in Guam
https://eu.guampdn.com/story/news/2018/11/06/guam-general-election-results/1900152002/
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There was a whole bunch of old people at my polling place when I showed up at 11~. I didn't get my "Lee Zeldin should be strapped to the top of a bus and then taken on a trip down Robert Moses Parkway" sticker but the feeling was there.
God I wish we didn't elect judges.
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Popping in to say I voted for Ben Jealous even though i have a feeling Larry Hogan is going to continue being a lot like Hulk Hogan tonight: surprisingly popular, crushing the competition, not supporting organized labor, and kind of racist. Also voted for Marc Elrich for MoCo executive because we really don't need more rapid unsustainable development that will just make traffic worse and housing costs more expensive.
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Dear Lord, if you are to give me any bonus gifts tonight, please give me Scott Walker's head on a pike.
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A few links to help keep track of things:
Key House Races:
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/06/650523564/2018-house-election-results-for-congressional-racesSenate Races:
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/06/650523070/2018-senate-race-election-resultsGovernor Races:
https://www.npr.org/650524259Key Ballot Initatives:
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/06/650525268/2018-election-results-for-key-ballot-measures-and-state-propositionsThere's also an option to look at key races by state.
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@Cyan:
Dear Lord, if you are to give me any bonus gifts tonight, please give me Scott Walker's head on a pike.
How about Kim Davis losing her reelection in Kentucky?
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How about Kim Davis losing her reelection in Kentucky?
That works too! There is plenty room above my fireplace.
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Ohio governor race currently has Cordray in the lead.
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@Cyan:
Dear Lord, if you are to give me any bonus gifts tonight, please give me Scott Walker's head on a pike.
Ted Cruz's head would be the piece de resistance.
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Democrat ahead in the South Carolina governor race!*
*less than 1% reporting
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I did my part to stem the dumpster fire.
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Kim Davis lost to the guy she wouldn't give a marriage license too.
McGrath has lost the lead in Kentucky.
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NPR is, as of this post, showing McGrath still up by 1% with 70% in.
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Gillum and Nelson are slowly getting swamped by mass panhandle redneck turnout near the end of counting. Repeat of 2016.
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Gillum and Nelson are slowly getting swamped by mass panhandle redneck turnout near the end of counting. Repeat of 2016.
That's because Florida is like…all old people. It's literally the dinosaur graveyard of America, where all old people go to die. That and Cubans, who don't like Democrats because they associate them with the people they fled Cuba from.
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Beto has a small lead over Cruz, but that's just with Dallas reporting in.
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Please, Bugs Bunny, don't send shitty Florida our way again.
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538 now gives the GOP a 1 in 3 chance of keeping the House. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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Correction: the GOP has a 60% chance of retaining the House.
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538 now gives the GOP a 1 in 3 chance of keeping the House. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Correction: the GOP has a 60% chance of retaining the House.
Apparently this is due to the early calls being for Republicans.
From https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/#3495
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
The model 538 uses to predict races is overcompensating a bit.
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Pritzker is projected to win the governor's seat in Illinois, flipping it for the Dems.
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A fringe opinion, but Florida is bad.
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I really didn't want to be right. I swear I wanted to be wrong so bad…
Once again:
From https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/#3495
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
Also:
Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once – we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.
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ABC called the race for Braun.
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McGrath lost too.
