Well since the season opener is in 2 days I figure it's time to start up a new thread. Went ahead and included a poll. Please feel free to post your own more detail predictions. Play ball everybody~
MLB Season 2013
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I think Toronto's going to have a ball-busting team. Especially since, if the rumours about the Yankees are true (that A-Rod, Granderson, Cano, and Ryan Braun) are all going to be suspended for PEDs, the Yankees are going to be comically inept and hilarious to watch in 2013.
Olney just tweeted that big stuff is about to happen, I seriously hope it's the PED suspensions!
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Yeah, I actually hesistated including them in the poll but it didn't feel right to have one without them. They're reeling enough from injuries, any suspensions would cripple any shot they got at making the playoffs.
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Turns out the Olney Tweet was about Verlander's extension. I still have hopes the suspensions will come down before Opening Day from the Office of the Commissioner, but given how it happened with Melky it'll likely be mid April.
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Speaking of Melky, curious to see how he'll rebound from everything. If he can get back to top form(without cheating of course) along with all of Toronto's other additions then I'd have to agree with you that nothing will stop them. Til then their entire revamped team has a bunch of questions.
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I'll root for the Braves, but I think the Orioles have a really good shot this year especially if the Yankees get hit by suspensions and make the AL East division weaker.
On the other end, who do people think will be the worst team in baseball?
The Mets maybe? Between the Nationals, Braves, and the Phillies, they're in a tough division and traded Dickey who pitched over a quarter of their wins last year. Further, that money they owe an injured Santana is going to make it harder to find replacements.
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I'd say the Astros right now. And I'd take the Mets as being better than the Marlins at least.
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I'll root for the Braves, but I think the Orioles have a really good shot this year especially if the Yankees get hit by suspensions and make the AL East division weaker. On the other end, who do people think will be the worst team in baseball? The Mets maybe? Between the Nationals, Braves, and the Phillies, they're in a tough division and traded Dickey who pitched over a quarter of their wins last year. Further, that money they owe an injured Santana is going to make it harder to find replacements.
It'd be weird seeing the Mets actually actually turn into into a team that doesn't either collaspe down the stretch or just plain suck for most of the season but if the Nationals can make the playoffs I guess the Mets could get lucky this year…maybe. And not feeling too confident about the Yankees I already have to watch the Lakers be on the cusp of either missing the playoffs or getting bounced in the first round.
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Worst has to be Astros, but at least there's hope and a semblance of a plan there. Can't imagine what it must be like to be one of the seventeen remaining fans of the Marlins.
I'll do my usual diffused rooting for ten to twelve teams with an emphasis in Braves and Royals. The Braves are especially interesting this year. Their lineup is amazing–Dan Uggla should be hitting seventh, and there will be issues with figuring out where to slot McCann when he returns--but their rotation is full of question marks.
Tim Hudson: no longer even close to an ace, probably a third or fourth starter.
Kris Medlen: great, but doesn't have top-of-the-rotation stuff, though he's played like it for stretches.
Paul Maholm: perfect fifth starter but with some tendencies upwards in last five years.
Brandon Beachy: injured but possibly the best pitcher when healthyAnd then there's the duo of Minor and Teheran who could be anywhere from a future ace to minor league scrub. It's just that there are no real sure things in the rotation at the moment, but a ton of high-ceiling guys (Maholm and Huddy being the only two that it's pretty clear what you get).
I hope Nats/Braves games are more competitive this year. Would be great to see that develop into a full-blown rivalry.
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Well the astros sure are doing their best to prove us wrong.
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I think the Astros will benefit from their schedule in form of not having to play a quarter of their schedule against the Reds and Cardinals, which is one of the reasons I picked them to actually do better than the Mets this year. New York is stuck in a division that may well be better this year than last while I doubt the 2013 AL West is as strong as 2012's NL Central was.
I think there's a really good chance the Mets will finish below the Marlins as well; even with Dickey winning twenty games, they still only finished five games ahead of the Marlins last year. At the very least, the Mets will have the worst record in baseball relative to their payroll. Well, barring the Yankees getting half their stars suspended.
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Heard somewhere that A-rod is making more than the entire Astros roster this year.
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If ESPN's numbers are correct, the Yankees have about four players whose salaries that are just above or just below the Astros' entire $25M payroll. The Dodgers are paying Vernon Wells an amount equal to that payroll while Johan Santana is getting almost that much from the Mets.
Apparently that $25 million includes several million that they're paying to the Pirates, so their actual payroll is more like $19M.
If the latter, then A-Rod, Wells, Santana, Mark Teixera, C.C. Sabathia, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Lee. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Barry Zito are all making more or the same that the entire roster of the Astros. Carlos Lee and Zambrano must be about half of the Marlin's payroll actually.
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Good Lord, I just went through the rosters of the Mets and Marlins and they are ugly. On the bright side, looks like they'll be clearing out most of their series earlier in the season, leaving the latter months for, you know, good baseball.
Did notice that they're ending the season with a series against the Tigers. When did we start ending the season with interleague games? That's asinine to the extreme.
Hang in there, Kierkegaard.
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Did notice that they're ending the season with a series against the Tigers. When did we start ending the season with interleague games? That's asinine to the extreme.
Interleague games take place throughout the entire season now since they have fifteen teams in each league. Somebody has to end the year that way as a result.
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The Mets are an ugly team, but the Marlins are almost destined to be bottom feeders because their current roster is almost completely devoid of any major league talent. All the quality stuff is in the farm, which is less of a farm system and more of a Garden of Eden after all those trades.
Rosenthal just tweeted that the Rangers are looking to extend Elvis Andrus, 8 years/$120M. I'm completely stunned at that. Andrus is a light hitting shortstop playing in Arlington, one of the top three homer havens in baseball. In other words, no matter how good a defender he is, he can't do jack about home runs the pitching staff give up, so this is an egregious, unnecessary over-pay when Jurrickson Profar, super-prospect is waiting to edge Andrus out.
The Rangers had a pretty good offseason despite not doing much, because they didn't make any mistakes. Josh Hamilton might not turn into Barry Bonds in Anaheim, and I'm pretty sure Zack Greinke is in for a rude awakening at the suddenly puissant looking NL West. But this is possibly one of the worst mistakes they could make, and it's happening for no reason. Boras must have poisoned the GM's mind.
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Cano's just fired Scott Boras as his agent. As we know, Boras hates extensions and was planning to take Cano to free agency next year. The only reason Cano would pull the plug on that plan is if he gets suspended, which would kill his market like it did Melky's. Likely, we'll either see the Yankees withdraw their offer, or extend Cano very, very soon.
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Well we shall see how his new agent Jay-Z does.
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Nothing like being at Dodgers opening day and having your pitcher be great on the mound and at the plate.
Good times by (mostly) all at the game yesterday
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Wish I could be watching the Orioles home opener. My birds are toying with Tampa's bullpen.
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Darvish almost pitched a perfect game and lost it in the 9th, on the final batter of the game.
I'm kind of a Texas fan after seeing the organization come onto its own in 2010, so this was a bit bittersweet. On the one hand, I wanted the Rangers to get this - they really needed it after the heartbreak of the past 3 years, losing all their good players and signing the most retarded contract I've ever heard of with Andrus.
But I watched portions of the game live and felt that the Astros were helping Darvish along…they K'd on pitches I'd never seen major league players K on, almost like it felt like they wanted it to happen as self-vindication for their doomed season. I didn't feel the magic that I saw with Matt Cain's perfect game, felt similar to Johan Santana's no-hitter and Felix Hernandez' perfect game. By contrast, it really felt like Homer Bailey (last year) had the Pirates' number, as did Jered Weaver against a bad Twins team. So I had a bad feeling that it would get broken up, if not by Jason Castro (who was the last out of Cain's perfect game, and went first in the 9th this time) then by someone else. Really hurts that it happened on the final batter, though, and too his credit, he was trying to get on base.
And yeah that Kershaw game was nuts. I'm not even mad. I felt bad for George Kontos though, he was utterly crestfallen/in-shock after giving up the Kershaw HR.
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Yu's reaction was pretty great.
Sarcastically texted my brother that Francoeur had two hits in the first Royals game and had finally turned the corner. Then he grounded out on the first pitch of the final AB with a man on to end a 1-0 loss to the White Sox. I regret making him the only jersey I ever bought during his second year with the Braves.
Braves/Nats is going to be a helluva lot of fun in the NL East this year.
Hang in there, Kierkegaard. -
So I never did give my full predictions, guess now is a good a time as any.
Standings, WCs-*
! AL East
Tampa Bay
Toronto*
Baltimore
Boston
New York
! AL Central
Detroit
Chicago*
Kansas City
Cleveland
Minnesota
! AL West
Los Angeles
Texas
Oakland
Seattle
Houston
! Toronto over Chicago
Los Angeles over Toronto
Tampa Bay over Detroit
Tampa Bay over Los Angeles
! NL East
Washington
Atlanta*
Philadelphia
New York
Miami
! NL Central
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh*
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Chicago
! NL West
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado
San Diego
! Atlanta over Pittsburgh
Los Angeles over Atlanta
Washington over Cincinnati
Los Angeles over Washington
! Then as the poll reflects,
Los Angeles over Tampa Bay -
I thought whoever is managing Toronto did a stupid thing by not including Josh Thole on the roster. Arrencibia allowed a laughable 4 passed balls in yesterday's game, which should have been five - one was allowed without a runner on base, and one was mercifully credited to Dickey as a wild pitch, but it was obviously another passed ball. I think Willin Rosario holds the record for past balls in one game, set last year, and Arrencibia would have set it had that not been scored a WP.
He clearly sucks. Toronto doesn't know the value of defense yet!
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I thought whoever is managing Toronto did a stupid thing by not including Josh Thole on the roster. Arrencibia allowed a laughable 4 passed balls in yesterday's game, which should have been five - one was allowed without a runner on base, and one was mercifully credited to Dickey as a wild pitch, but it was obviously another passed ball. I think Willin Rosario holds the record for past balls in one game, set last year, and Arrencibia would have set it had that not been scored a WP.
He set a team record with just three.
Even worse, the "passed balls" came at a critical time–the first two runs scored by the Indians were aided by two passed balls--and the count didn't even take into account the half dozen additional balls he dropped or didn't receive cleanly, which is going to be problematic in stopping base runners.
Certainly was not the great home opener I was expecting/wanting.
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Yeah one of my Canadian friends said Arrencibia was there because they didn't want to put in a backup catcher for the opening game of the season, but then I learned Thole isn't even on the roster. I know Arrencibia caught Dickey fine in the WBC (I think?) but that's in the same vein as Carlos Ruiz doing it in last year's All Star Game. Buster Posey didn't feel capable of catching a knuckler with so little experience.
I'm pretty confident in Toronto, though. Reyes, Melky, Bautisa and Encarnacion is a fudging beast of a 1-4, I don't think there's any team in the American league with a power, average, speed combo like that. Not even the Angels' heart with Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton.
I actually vowed to listen to their games on SportsNet Canada (since SFG is way, way too late for me to listen/watch every night), but it looks like mlb's hard arse toward online streaming prevents me from doing it. Really sad, I can't even pick up the Braves and I'm right next door.
My predictions:
AL East: Toronto, Tampa Bay*, Baltimore, New York, Boston
AL Central: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota
AL West: Texas, Anaheim*, Oakland, HoustonTampa Bay over Anaheim in WC
No predictions for the rest of the postseason cause I have no idea how the rosters will change for the other teams. Tampa Bay and Anaheim are payroll capped, so I can only imagine them getting worse from here on, while Baltimore, Cleveland, and Oakland could get better. Toronto, Chicago and Detroit are major ???.
NL East: Washington, Atlanta*, Philadelphia, New York, Miami
NL Central: Cincinnati, St. Louis*, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee
NL West: Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, RockiesAtlanta over St. Louis in the WC.
Same as above for the AL. St. Louis has financial flexibility and one of baseball's best farms, so even if the team weakens, it would be shocking if they didn't make the post-season with all those resources. Cincinnati, Atlanta, Milwaukee are payroll locked, they can only get worse. But Atlanta has the best OF in baseball, and is extremely well rounded, even if the farm sucks now.
I don't think LA improved as much as everyone thinks. Carl Crawford is terrible and a wasted roster space, Adrian Gonzalez isn't as fearsome as he once was (he had shoulder surgery in 2010, which sapped his opposite field power) and I don't think Zack Greinke will be very good. A number of his stats stand out that tell me he might not do so well in the NL West and won't be able to blame hitter parks for it. However, I think Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez will be very good for LA, and if Chad Billingsley gets healthy, their rotation will be better than the Giants'.
I felt the Padres were under-rated last year but they've gone out in ST and the regular season and shown some awful presence, so time to temper my expectations for them.
SFG…I think they're the best team in the division as of right now, but the difference between them, LA and Arizona isn't that huge. Personnel moves during the season will dictate who really tops the west.
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Great exchange from Washington/Miami, Nats' Announcers.
Announcer: "Bryce Harper had a busy off-day yesterday. He went to see a special screening of 42, and he got to meet the President!"
Color Commentator, quietly: "The President got to meet him."This was, of course, followed by Bryce lining a single on the first pitch of his AB.
Also, Justin Upton just crushed a low fastball over the right-center wall in terrible weather. He's looking pretty damned good. Halladay is continuing to look pretty terrible.
Malintex, I'll assume you have Kansas City at the bottom of the AL Central, but where do you have the Mariners in the AL West?
–- Update From New Post Merge ---
Evan Gattis, a former top prospect who suffered from depression and dropped out of baseball for years, just got his first hit, a homer off of Roy Halladay, while the Braves' broadcast was interviewing his father. Amazing.
Baseball's the best.
Hang in there, Kierkegaard. -
Welp.. The O's lost a game I felt they shouldn't have lost. Chen was a fucking BAWS though! Kudos to him.
Ayala and Strop?
The bullpen lost this game.
vamos a ganar la próxima vez~ -
Take comfort in the fact that Davis is on fire.
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Malintex, I'll assume you have Kansas City at the bottom of the AL Central, but where do you have the Mariners in the AL West?
Ah yeah, I forgot about KC and Seattle.
I think Seattle will be better than Houston. But that's not saying a lot. Their team is legitimately terrible and their FO has poor talent evaluation. I think if Michael Morse continues to mash, Seattle will try to extend him and maybe just make him their DH if his defense remains bad. Seattle's bright spots are Zunio, who isn't ML ready yet, Ackley and Seager. I worry about Felix Hernandez getting injured up there, with how desperate the team is to use him as an attraction.
KC I predict to finish about Minnesota. Minnesota is awful - their two biggest contracts are perpetually injured and they have zero pitching. KC might be mediocre, but they have something the work with.
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Kansas City just feels like it's perennially one year away.
I mentioned Evan Gattis hitting a home run while his father was being interviewed earlier. It was one of the cooler things I've seen live. Video, if anyone's interested: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=mlb&content_id=25977639&partnerId=as_mlb_20130404_6876304&topic_id=vtp_opening_week
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Prince Fielder homered so hard he knocked a dude out:
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That's insane. Geez! Hope he doesn't suffer any brain damage.
espero que no se daño~
Baseballs are lethal!! RIP Birdie
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Again, Chris Davis
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What a weird season, one of extremes. In some divisions, the pitchers are lethal to the offense. In others, we have guys like Davis and Morse brutally rending all manner of arm they come into contact with.
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BJ Upton with a tying home run in the bottom of the ninth and Justin Upton with the winning homer two batters later.
Entertaining and very different.
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Justin Upton 3-3 tonight with his sixth homer.
I…I think he's pissed off about that whole Diamondbacks thing.
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Jered Weaver is out 4-6 weeks due to a fractured elbow.
Also: this
[http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26131335&c_id=mlb
I](http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26131335&c_id=mlb) was watching this on MLB Network and how the fuck did Zobrist strike out when all six pitches (including the called third strike) were outside the strike zone and Zobrist didn't swing at any of them? Hopefully that umpire gets sent down for a couple of weeks to the minors
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Hilarious call, that.
Weaver's injury is a bit of a surprise to me, since it was a freak accident, but reports prior to it suggest it was a good thing. Weaver apparently got injured and lost velocity, so he's likewise lost the ability to keep flyballs in the park. This is similar to what happened to Dan Haren last year.
I'm pretty sure the Angels are toast, for similar reasons to the Toronto Blue Jays (wtf!). No pitching, or bad pitching. Offense alone can't do it because pitching is more consistent over a 162 schedule, so outside of legendary powerful teams like the 2003/2004 Red Sox, they're not going to last if they can't keep the runs down! I hate it especially today, because Johnson got nuked for like 11 ER or something and a 40 ERA cause he only pitched 1.1 innings. FUDGE.
On paper, Greinke/Weaver/Haren/Wilson/Williams and Dickey/Morrow/Johnson/Burehle/Happ are a solid lineup. So was Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Blanton/Kendrick. But paper lies, and it looks like it lied big on all of those rotations. Not saying SFG is better at the moment (it isn't) but these early goings have been strongly offense-dominated.
But god dang, how about Atlanta? I'm ambivalent on how they're doing. On the one hand, I'm scared (lol). On the other, I kind of like seeing how this non-Boras, hype train team is pile driving the National League.
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Just imagine how good they'll be when B.J. Upton and Jason Heyward make it to at least the Mendoza line. As is, they're both sporting the kind of averages you see out of an AL pitcher during interleague play; B.J. is at .103 and Heyward is at .071.
Complicating things since 2009.
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Just imagine how good they'll be when B.J. Upton and Jason Heyward make it to at least the Mendoza line. As is, they're both sporting the kind of averages you see out of an AL pitcher during interleague play; B.J. is at .103 and Heyward is at .071.
Heyward doesn't look that bad, just having some bad luck.
B.J. has looked terrible except for one swing.
Hang in there, Kierkegaard. -
Oh, man. Avilan just hurt himself badly on a balk. They had to carry him off in a cart; at best, it's a severely pulled hamstring, but he may have torn it.
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Heyward doesn't look that bad, just having some bad luck.
B.J. has looked terrible except for one swing.
.071 isn't bad luck alone, a .150 BA is bad luck, but less than .100 is just sad. Luckily Pena and Justin are keeping up the slack. They'll turn it around and Uggla will have about 3 weeks of great hitting then go back into his slump. That said the Braves are UNSTOPPABLE!
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His BABIP before tonight was sub-.100. I'm not a huge BABIP fan, but in this case, it matches the eyeball test. He's lining the ball a lot, just in the wrong places. His strikeout percentage is also lower than usual (around 14%), and compared to BJ's (29%), I stand by my claim that Upton has looked overmatched while Heyward's just having some bad luck.
Hope Avilan's going to be all right. Before he went down, that was a great game. Haven't heard Turner Field go this nuts in quite a while.
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BABIP is only good as a general indicator, if you want to look at bad luck, look at the % of balls put in play.
High GB/LD = higher batting average, usually. Especially with LD%. A good LD% is 18%, and 40-50% GB is good.
High FB is usually bad except for power hitters, and only if they have a good HR/FB ratio.
In Heyward's case, his LD% is 14%, and his flyballs are 57.1%. He's hitting far more flyballs and for far less power that his career, and that's suppressing his average. It's not just bad luck where he has a 20% LD% but is hitting into outs, he's hitting more balls into the sky but isn't doing it with enough strength to make them go anywhere.
If you want a comparison for luck, Brandon Belt is perfect. He's sitting at a .198 average, but has a 28.9% LD% and 42.1% GB. He's hitting for no power, so his FBs are all falling for outs, but hitting 70% of his balls on the ground should lead to more production than .198.
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Hehehe, it's always fun when people who know a little about baseball run into people who know a lot about baseball.
Thanks for the correction, Malintex.
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Avilan is fine now according to ESPN. It was apparently just the mother of all leg cramps; it really looked like he just wrecked his hamstring the way he went down.
Complicating things since 2009.
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Jeter out until after the All-Star Break. Ugh.
Not a Yankees fan, but it feels weird to watch Jeter limp–literally--into retirement.
