Ok, So i've done quite a bit of post diving. And I must say that out of the three remaining non-clears, my prime suspect is Harvady.
I have tracked down and compiled a list of every single post you have made since the beginning of time of the game. You seem keen on quotes to back up cases- and I am more than happy to oblige you. <3
Firstly, some basic facts.
So far, there have been approximately- assuming my math is correct- 565 posts in this game so far. Now of course that's also including possible joke posts, but that's the base number.
Harvady replaces a player D1 page 20, and does not post until page 22, post 429. Of the 565 posts in the game, Harvady has made 27 posts in total.
! Five posts on Day One.
Eight on Day Two.
Zero on Day Three.
One on Day Four.
Ten on Day Five.
Three on Day Six. (Ongoing)
Why is this significant? Well- i'll get to that. :3 I've got a lot to cover.
Ok, for starters this,
! @Harvady:
! > It's great to be here, I must say. I have every intention to save the day.
From what I've read so far, we've got a lot of people looking towards their 'gotcha', and that's scary. It keeps the lynch vote on the backburner, making our situation hairy.
To answer your question, trapped, I think we can pull off a lynch. I'd hardly say that it will be a cinch. My spirit beast is a finch.
! Allow me to bring everyone's attention to the little bit there in smaller font referring to how Harvy feels about Gotcha focus– "It keeps the lynch vote on the backburner, making our situation hairy." Keep that in mind.
Next, we have this:
! @Harvady:
! > It's funny that you ask, Outerspec. You are the liar. For my gotcha is same as yours.
I'm sure that there are more than one liar among the list of claimed gotchas. Just thinking that people would people would bother telling the truth is odd, but at the same time, is indicative of things that don't pertain the catching the mafia. Kidding around with being a fool is ironically a serious deal, to sacrifice one's role for the dubious task of being lynched is not something that can be properly planned, but rather opportunistically fallen into to. You would have to commit your foolishness in a way that doesn't sour the relations of the other players, mafia included. Outerspec and his gotcha are easy enough to pull off, but that same task was given to someone else, it suddenly becomes overt and off-puting.
Thank you.
! This comes out of nowhere, and is the first actual action Harvady makes in the game. Out of all that's happening already- all of the votes actually in the air so far and case beginnings that Harvy could dissect– he chooses to do this. Luckily he is not content with just throwing this randomness out and letting it fester on its own- he gives us a collection of actual reasoning.
...
Or at least I think that's what he's going for here.
! @Harvady:
! > As it has been stated previously, going for a gotcha will bring about consequences for the rest of town. Those who do not attempt a gotcha will reveal themselves as power roles or scum-hunters. Those who do go for gotcha reveal themselves as the opposite. In respects to my claim, it is not about claiming the truth, but rather claiming one's intentions. So I pose a question to all: Is fake-claiming your gotcha a criminal act if you truly have no intention to become a fool?
The first contradiction that arises from this query is why people would bother lying if they don't intend to pursue foolishness. If you feel that this reasoning makes the above bolded section impossible, then the only conclusion to draw is that fake-claimers are people who intend to become fools. It is still no small matter to achieve fool status even with the shield of a fake-claim. They risk too much for little gain.
To that end, not claiming at this point isn't a viable option. Cooperation from the other players is paramount, and refusal only draws suspicion upon oneself. So a potential fool's only option is to lie. Second question to all: How many among us are actively trying to be fools?
What it sounds like you're saying is that you think I'm lying because I either ignored or did not consider the possibility that we could both have the same gotcha. Based on everyone claims, it is nigh impossible to have two people with the same gotcha.
If you truly entertain the possiblity that players could very well share the same objective, then it would stand to reason that we (Outerspec and I) would not be the only pair. Would this be further evidence that other gotcha claims are lies? Third question: What purpose does the claim list serve?
But that's enough beating about the bush. My gotcha is to post in ALL CAPS. Thrice.
! …Wait so what does any of this have to do with you suddenly jumping outerspec with that Gotcha CC?
I don't understand why you feel the need to overcomplicate something that's actually rather simple- not to mention wording it so vastly when you could easily have gotten the point across with half the verbiage. It feels like you're purposely trying to talk over people's heads.
Also, you don't even aknowledge the Outerspec cc here- all you do is brush it off and casually slide in the fact that you lied about your CC.
! @Harvady:
! > Second question to all: How many among us are actively trying to be fools?
! I am of the assumption that this was a rhetorical question. You just went over the possibility of liars, why do you think that- should liars exist- they would honestly tell you that they are doing so? I suppose the counter to this is Shuhan, but Shu was rather open with his attempt after he was caught trying to do so. (Even though he allegedly never flipped Fool- though I'm not sure i'm inclined to believe such.)
! @Harvady:
! > The first contradiction that arises from this query is why people would bother lying if they don't intend to pursue foolishness. If you feel that this reasoning makes the above bolded section impossible, then the only conclusion to draw is that fake-claimers are people who intend to become fools.
! Ok, keep this post in mind- i'll be coming back to it.
! @Harvady:
! > The questions are relevant to my scum hunt yes. But that post was the crux of a gambit to get Outerspec to vote me.
This fake claim is the means to determine Outerspec's stance and disposition. If you will recall a previous post of his:
@Outerspec:
I'm going to be honest. I'm voting to lynch anyone who accuses me of anything or even looks at me funny.
After reading that, I decided to accuse him. Even though Mastello had indeed pointed out that he was joking.
a.k.a being a joker/jester = fool. Despite that, I wanted to understand what his intentions were. Why wouldn't he vote me if it was all a jest? His reaction was very controlled. I was surprised. He picked up my first white-text so quickly that I had to assume that he knows what I'm doing. So I breadcrumbed again. He didn't reveal it that time, so I don't think anyone noticed it. It's eight to lynch, so surely you can oblige a vote or two. His disposition changed. Not uncommon, but I wanted to utilize the early game that I wasn't present for.
All in all, he didn't bite. Some players have a habit of missteping around their own posts, others dismiss it as Day One shenanigans. What changed?
! Ok, you at least have a reasoning behind that randomly thrown out CC now. Problem is, it's still un-reasonably random considering the already present wagons being pushed that you completely ignore. I'm not saying you have to be a wagon jumper- but to ignore the situations at hand and jump headlong into a confounded accusation that ultimately goes nowhere is blatant, unapologetic time-wasting. All we are left with at the end of that is what we already knew- Outerspec's Gotcha.
! @Harvady:
! > **As you've stated, mafia would strongly discourage any attemps to go fool. Power-roles can't use their abilities if they become night-fools, mafia is no exception. By making a list you force the honest to disregard their gotcha and the deceptive to make a fake claim.
If mafia won't go for fool, then they won't lie. Ability users aren't any differnt. The only liars are going to be vanilla townies. That means that catching liars is just another way to reveal villagers without power-roles. Process of elimination also means that mafia will figure out who has abilities.
That means that this list serves mafia only.**
! This goes in hand with the previous statement I bolded. Remember this one too. Because you're going to need them both for this next post:
! @Harvady:
! > @Foolio:
Well from my perspective (a smart) mafia wouldn't go Fool on Day 1 because it's a waste of a desperate escape. I think it's fully possible for mafia to go Fool when they are taking lots of heat, either from an imminent lynch or fear of investigation at night.
Can anyone say that a fool report isn't equivalent to a guilty? If town is in agreement, then there shouldn't be any fools whatsoever. Is that town's policy?
! There. Right there.
! In his previous posts, his logic equaled out to this: Those who lie about their gotcha are doing so soley to flip fool. Because being a fool would mean lack of night powers for Mafia, Mafia would not try to fake-claim/become a fool. Same for townies with power roles. Making, as he said himself, the only players that would fake-claim vanilla townies.
! But in this post, he refers to a fool report as an automatic guilty. That's a rather substantial contradiction right there.
! And thus, day one ends with a no Lynch from Harvy– wait a minute.
Hang on, wasn't there something significant he said at the start of the game?
Something a little...contradictory?
! Oh, right!
! @Harvady:
! > From what I've read so far, we've got a lot of people looking towards their 'gotcha', and that's scary. It keeps the lynch vote on the backburner, making our situation hairy.
! And yet every single post you made Day One concerned Gotchas, Fools, or both. You didn't even try to lynch anyone. The only 'suspect' you had was a random hunch-turned-gambit that didn't even hold any water by the end of it– and one was entirely based on a Gotcha. The very thing you claimed to be a distraction to everyone in the first place!
So ends my analysis of Harvy's actions on Day 1.
And thus begins my analysis of his actions on Day 2!
! Harvy's first post on Day 2 is a recap of the voting patterns in Day 1. Nothing really bad about that- such posts can come in handy.
! His second post is where we finally start seeing a range of opinions from him.
! @Harvady:
! > Based on yesterday's pattern, xasjjx and Kaitouu are simply along for the ride. Passive is the standard fare for mafia.
! Or beginners. As the player who shot herself night one of her first game I can tell you a brash beginner isn't always a useful mix.
! @Harvady:
! > Tyrano and Outerspec are quick to move a wagon forward early. This is a more aggressive tactic, but it's still pushing wagons without investigating first.
Shuhan and Habaneroo were getting a lot of heat for their actions. It doesn't surprise me that they abstained from voting. They likely didn't want anymore negative press.
! I can't tell if you think this is a good or bad thing.
! @Harvady:
! > Sky was gone, blending active lurking with the real deal.
! I
what
! @Harvady:
! > People who instigate wagons are less likely to be manipulating the vote.
! I'm gonna have to beg to differ on this one. Sometimes all it takes is a little idea in people's heads to get them chewing at it. But considering something that happens a little later on in Kaitouu's wagon, the fact that you made this statement makes me even more uneasy.
! In all, your opinions seem generally balanced and at a lack of Favorites. …But I know you-- at least, I know your history. In that it's long. At least with Mafia it is. This ain't your first rodeo, Chief. You knowing how to keep things rounded enough so that you can cover all your bases just in case you need to cover your rear in the future wouldn't surprise me at all.
! Harvy's next posts are concerning the issue of Hypo-Copping. Now to be honest, I had to do a little Hypo-Copping research because, until now, I didn't know what that meant. But I don't need to know exactly how it works to point out flawed speech.
! @Harvady:
! > The benefits to not claiming a guilty report today would be to try and determine your sanity with your second report and stay hidden. I'm saying that a claim is better than a Hypo-cop. I would like to do neither.
! @Harvady:
! > I am being hypothetical. I am pointing out a route that I prefer to hypo-cop.
! But I thought you didn't want either.
You are juggling my understanding again, Good Sir. It's odd to say you would rather do one than the other but also say you would rather do neither– especially when no one seems to prefer your alternate route, so it probably wouldn't become a possible action anway.
! After this, we finally get another main suspect from Harvy- (That is, if you even still count the Outerspec fiasco)- in the shape of Sky.
His primary argument- besides the statement I previously quoted:
@Harvady: @Harvady:
! > @Sky:
@Foolio, I'm very tempted to agree. I've already made my points against him, and his recent "rule debate" has seemed very scummy to me as well. I believe I'll add my vote as well.
Vote Lynch: Tyrano
You made mention of him [Tyrano] yesterday, (Post #462)
You redirected him to your question from D1. (Post #558)
Two posts later, Foolio voted him. The very next post, you wagon.
You didn't even wait for him to answer you. Why?
! Ok, I can understand this reasoning. It's a rather brash desicion made pretty quickly and coincidentally right after another vote that she rather vaguely agrees too. I can see where he's going with thi-
! @Harvady:
! > I wan Sky to be lynched. Aside from being a sparse-posting, wagon-jumping, not-answering-my-question person, people have given enough opinions on her to prove some things, should she flip mafia.
Vote Lynch: Tyrano
! ….Que? So.
So one of your main issues with Sky is that she was a Wagon jumper.
And you say this in the same post as you jumping on the Tyrano wagon.
The wagon that, until now, you have said absolutely nothing about.
Do you not see the conflict of interest here.
! Ok, yes he goes on to make a few case-pieces here and there, but none of it is really huge– and even his statements and 'interrogations' don't feel all that whole-heartedly genuine: @Harvady:
! > Mafia doesn't REALLY need to know how powers work. Mafia just needs to know who has the power, so they can kill them.
Another soft claim. I don't particularly mind, as you need to claim before you're lynched, but this isn't what we need to know. Full disclosure, please.
Probably, yes. But when it comes to people hounding them, they are far worse than a power role. Mafia would take WIFOM heat over an active detractor any day of the week.
! Ok so that's the end of Harvy's action in D2. His lynch vote comes in second to last on this list. Take note this is his first lynch vote of the game.
So ends my analysis of Day 2.
Now on to Day 3.
! …Oh wait hang on- Harvy wasn't here for Day 3. That's interesting.
Well for those that may have forgotten, things on this day went to Haybales in a Handbasket when Shuhan made a scummy slip and revealed himself as mafia. From there a massclaim errupted, outing a claim from everyone- including the two masons, a cc cop claim from KI again Outerspec and a lot of Shuhan threatening to flip himself fool. Because of this, the gang decided to lynch OS instead to solidify the claim from KI. This did confirm the claim, but ended up in a dead fox as well. So begins Day 4.
Annnnd for Day 4,
! Harvy only had one post on this particular day, not helped by the fact that the day ended up being very short because of the rushlynch against Confirmed maf-Shuhan. Considering how long Harvy's posts can be, I gave him a pass on the amount.
However that doesn't mean the content gets a green light from me.
@Harvady:
! > WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT?! We were ten players up on the mafia at the end of D2, we had two cop claims when none were needed. Outerspec's lack of a retraction wasn't even close to being considered scummy TWELEVE hours into the day! Which is when you all managed to LYNCH him and END THE DAMN DAY.
Nobody even managed to question KI's first fake report considering that for him to be blocked would mean that the mafia didn't bother using both of their remaining resources on TWO claimed cops. Nobody wanted to just ASK Outerspec to retract?
Foolio's claim on D2 was ridiculous to begin with, so there wasn't any point in validating it. It was more than likely just a ploy to keep heat off the real cop. But no, he was claiming for real. I can't say that he despaired, but he clearly had the inkling that he wasn't going to get a second report. Which was being made more apparent by his asking players for their death timers.
Kitsune Inferno was doing a fine job of preserving himself with his vanilla soft claim and breadcrumbed reports. Sad part is that he claimed with only a single relevant report. Did he not want to just wait a damn day to see where Outerspec was going? Did he not recall Foolio telling the real cop not to come out?
Then there was the great idea for the MASONS to come out. Building up clears only works when you don't have a decent pool of suspects. Not when you already decided to lynch the cop claim! Not when you spent the first part of every day going after a proven liar! All you're doing is giving the mafia a better pool of targets!
! He doesn't address Shuhan or his own absense in this post which irk me, but those aren't my main issues with this.
Allow me to turn your attentions to a little something Harvy said back in Day 2- his sixth post of the day.
! @Harvady:
! > @Foolio:
Since hypo-cop is obviously a bad idea now, what do you think a GOOD strategy is?
The cops can claim on D3. With two cops, we twice as many reports as we normally would. We get to spend less time waiting and have them as clears to boot.
! And on D3- we have cop claims. But on D4 when Harvy shows back up, we get this:
@Harvady:
! > We were ten players up on the mafia at the end of D2, we had two cop claims when none were needed.
! Harvy– you EXPRESSED that it was a GOOD IDEA. You even explained WHY it would be a good idea! Why are you suddenly acting as if you've never heard of this before and that everyone who went along with it is foolish?? It was YOUR idea!!
! Well, that's the end of my Harvy analysis for day 4. With the lynch already well acheived, it wouldn't have mattered if he had contributed a vote or not on this particular day.
Now we get to Day 5. This one is meatier than the others so hang tight and stay with me.
! Xas starts by calling out Mastello and Kaitouu- to which Harvady takes upon himself to respond.
! @Harvady:
! > What do you expect to hear? Why not just pick one and build a case? Better yet, put a case on EVERYONE. There are only four cases to make.
YOU ARE CLEAR. LEAD.
! Woah woah woah woah woah here hang on
Hold the mushi for a second we need to go over this.
! So you're taking a stab at a player
for not making cases?
! The only actual case that you made up to this point on your own was on Sky. The Tyranno vote was a wagon jump and the Outerspec affair was a mauling stab in the dark at best.
! Nextly-
@Harvady:
! > @Xasjjbgkekjbefkgodhelpme:
You've not done much of anything in this game.
Prove that.
! 27/565 posts
A handful about gotchas.
At least three under 4 sentences.
One actual case that you didn't even try to stick to.
Another a random hit and run.
And the last one a wagon jump even though you claim wagon jumps are baseless and lazy.
Three lynch votes in the entirety of the game so far- one of which you retracted and another you didn't even commit to till near the very end out of necessity. Which you also seem to be against, ironically.
! Iiii'm gonna have to side with He-Who-Is-Incomprehensibly-Named on this one, bud.
@Harvady:
! > @Xasjujsbgioexhnnnnggghhhh:
You came in going on and on about gotchas
Did you read what I wrote? Because if you did, you wouldn't be parroting a bunch of dead people right now. (Rest their Souls.)
! Weelll I did and….yeah, yeah the repetitive Gotcha rants kinda wore on me too- gonna have to agree again.
! @Harvady:
! > @I:
…on day 2 you didn't put a vote down until late on the Tyrano wagon even though you claimed to want Sky lynched.
That is because I actually have an opinion. Unlike other people who do not. Those people who joined wagon, did so solely because consensus demanded it to be so. You do remember that his own Scum buddy hammered, yes? You should also remember that I was the ONLY PLAYER OF THE REMAINING FOUR 'CASES' to have voted Tyrano.
! No, Harvy. You voted out of necessity. Unlike 'other people' you did not stick to your opinion. Having one doesn't make the difference Harvy- acting on it does. The change to Tyrano was sudden, and you barely even attempted to give a case to back it. All you did was ask him short, vague questions when the lynch was already as good as sealed. You were just making it look like you had input so you could attempt to cover your wagon jump later- but you aren't fooling me.
! @Harvady:
! > So here's a question for you: Do you honestly think that BOTH of Tyrano's two scum buddies finished off his wagon with less than a few hours to go? Or do you think that one of them was on the Shuhan wagon? ALL three of them are there. Mafia definitely voted Shuhan on D2.
! Unless you can prove to me that it didn't happen, yes. I think that it is perfectly plausible for two of Tyrano's buddies to have offed him to make themselves look good. And I certainly don't put something so hairbrained and specific beyond you.
! @Harvady:
! > Sky and Habaneroo are still scummy as all get out. They just happen to be cleared.
! Why is this necessary Harvy. Why do you even have to say this. It's unecessary comments like this that really give me scum vibes about you. This is talking in circles- grasping at straws hoping one will be long enough to pull you out of your twisted web.
! This, to me, is trying too hard.
! @Harvady:
! > Being clear doesn't mean you get to sit back and watch me do your job for you. You are essentially leaving the scum-hunting up to someone you suspect is mafia. WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
! What job, Harvy? What have you actually done up to this particular point? Talk yourself in knots? Randomly attack innocents? Waste time with confounded mind games? Contradict yourself? Make lists?
! @Harvady:
! > Miscellaneous notes: vorlianis enters the game at #608. Missed bolding vote on #548
You sound as though I have suspects who are clear.
Obviously there's mafia between the three remaining unclears who aren't me. What I find interesting is that none of the three jumped on my wagon.
Mastello and vorlianis have both expressed an aversion to pushing me:
! I'm going to have to agree to his sentiments on this one- but I will say this. Harvy- you have a certain…prescence. From previous games I can tell you, you're often easier to follow than you are to confront- at least in my experience.
! I'm going to have to start speeding here, the sun is coming up and I need to at least pretend to get some sleep before I am discovered.
! @Harvady:
! > Kaitouu, you didn't answer my question. That gets you this:
Vote Lynch: Kaitouu
! Hey, Mafia. This game is auto-win as soon as our clears accept my obvious town-itude. Mafia can't win unless they get three mislynches, because there is no way that I will allow any NLs and you will never lynch a clear. I know I'm town. You know I'm town. That means that you have to lynch me to win, mafia. Do you think you can? I'm pretty sure that you can't considering how you've divided your attention. What's worse, you can't kill me either. Doing so means that you allow two cleared townies to reach the final day.
! So what are you going to do? Push me? Now that I've proven that mafia is required to lynch me in order to win?
Mr. Habaneroo, can I get your opinions on what's been said already?
! First of all- that lynch was very rushed and very petty– though you actually did have some basis behind why you suspected him, so I can give it a little more of a pass. For now.
! My main issue with this post is under that spoiler.
And my God is it staged. That just reeks of flowery acting. I mean- to what end did you even post that? What does it get you - a cookie? Are you just showing off? Why? And the line "my obvious town-itude" is so painfully forced it….it almost makes me wonder if you did it on purpose.
Which starts a whoooole different batch of worries.
But for now I don't have enough backing for that, so i'll leave it. The birds are getting louder outside anyway.
! I will give you rushed props for the actual cases you start making- specifically the one on Mastello being particularly nonchalant.
! But the next part is what gets me.
! You jumped off the Kaitouu wagon. You gave a reason, sure- but then the lynch went through and he flipped town. That felt...all too planned to me. Push a little possibility in the faces of the other players- the start pushing the wagon down the hill and then you jump off right before the bottom. That way when it comes down to it, you can't be blamed.
And now we're all caught up.
There you have it. Harvy, you like to hide under the guise of the "only sane hard worker", but i'm not buying it. You contradict yourself, make hypocritical cases and almost too-good-to-be-true choices.
In the entirety of the game you have made a lynch attempt thrice. You have only gone through with it once so far.
I don't trust you as far as I can throw you.
Which considering dogs don't have hands is not very far
Vote Lynch: Harvady Alumnus
I am now going to attempt to pretend I have slept before my parents find me.