Russia, an almost never-ending cycle of rigid, insular autocracies.
Recession Revolutions Thread Part II: Arabia and Beyond
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Russia was caught selling combat helicopters to Syria and then they told U.N that whats the big deal and they wont be used against civilian/rebel targets… yeah right.
Russia has so far been vetoing every decision for international solution for Syrian crisis, Russia and China has been adamant preventing any outside help saying that no outside intervention should be made towards Syrian civil war. Oh and meanthime they supply Assad with a god damn combat helicopters that can mow down infantry and light vehicles like weed. Holy shit Russia does not even care anymore about UN decisions and does everything it can to keep Assad (and their profitable military deals) alive.
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Russia is easily worse than China in terms of sponsoring dictatorships. Hell China's actually kinda letting Burma go from it's sphere without any resistance. Meanwhile Russia can't even stand poor Assad going un-helicoptered.
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@Monkey:
Russia is easily worse than China in terms of sponsoring dictatorships. Hell China's actually kinda letting Burma go from it's sphere without any resistance. Meanwhile Russia can't even stand poor Assad going un-helicoptered.
But didn't you say China didn't realy like having Burma around, as in it gained little if anything from it ?
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@No:
But didn't you say China didn't realy like having Burma around, as in it gained little if anything from it ?
I said that China's closest "friends" were not much to speak of. Burma and NK. But they were all China had and any sort of pawn is imporant.
Imagine a chess board with just your Queen (PLA) and King (CCP), versus an America with tons of varying chess pieces around you.Plus China COULD exploit them economically as much as it wanted which was a definite plus no matter how you cut it. Their relation with Burma was if anything MORE involved than Russia's relation with Syria.
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What we're seeing essentially is two very different approaches to foreign policy, even if we keep seeing them standing together.
China is obsessed with keeping a peaceful un-involved image to FP. They are always wanting to look neutral, and generally they do stay neutral in an agonizing way. This is keeping with assessments of their psychology historically and seemingly presently as a country that is perfectly happy with their location and only have interest in their immediate borders. Obviously there is more international interest to China nowadays than ever before, but it's only really in terms of doing business and making dollars. Such as their African ventures. China may agree with Russia on preserving certain status quos in the Mid-East and the former USSR, but they aren't really interested in doing so in any overt or active way.
Russia is the opposite. It's almost as if they are playing at a new sort of Cold War between two spheres, Russia sees itself still diametrically opposed to a Western world even if the economic systems aren't really different anymore. There's just this sense that Russia feels like it has a sphere, and that everything within it should stay a certain way. This of course involves authoritarian measures generally speaking, which Russia's own ramshackle politics aren't against. The way they behave with Central Asia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia is evidence of this. Russia has an active and open interest in keeping things from changing too much where they have influence. Syria is something of a small ally to them, and a country that has a base for them as well. As far as Russia's concerned this is reason enough to prop up the regime.
Fundamentally this is a pretty damning portrait, as it's as if Russia feels that democratic rights will naturally unhinge people from it's influence, which is pathetic and very Cold War of them. Say what you will about the US and importing democracy, but we have the man enough to allow democracy these days where it might not be friendly to us.Russia is only making enemies with this, and their own people are losing patience with them at the heart of all this. Russia is on the wrong side of history for....the twentieth time? What is it now?
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When it came to psychology, the Cold War was the most unhealthy thing imaginable basically
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Russia has a hard time of it.
Lesse about their rulers. How long between good ones?
Alexander I - Cool dude
Nicholas I - Shit
Alexander II - ok except for the genocide thing so…..Shit
Alexander III - Shit
Nicholas II - Shit
Kerensky - Worthless
Lenin - Shit
Stalin - Shit
Khrushchev - ehhhhh
Breshnev - Shit
Andropov - Shit
Chernenko - Shit
Gorbachev - Cool dude
Yeltsin - Shit
Putin - Shit
Medvedev - see above and below
Putin - Same shitGoing by that we'll have to wait another 200 or so years before someone starts getting shit done.
To put that in perspective we'll have to wait the length of time between Napoleon and Madonna. See you when! -
Can we get brief summaries about why the dudes after Stalin that were shit were shit
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the three of them all presided over the long slow death of the USSR primarily, plus some other things like the war in Afghanistan and crushing of the Prague Spring that No Maam will assure you makes Breshnev shit.
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How about Kerensky, what's up with him
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How about Kerensky, what's up with him
He's the guy who lead the Provisional Government after the end of the monarchy but before the Bolsheviks took over. Basically ineffectual and brushed aside with little effort. Plus he still didn't take Russia out of WW1 which was retarded.
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I think you dont give enough credit for Yeltsin. He had a right idea and he did made things better for citizens and promoted democracy but common russians had just too high expectations and what ever Yeltsin did for nation it was not enough, russians longed back for superpower status and wanted strong leader to boost nationalism.
I believe Yeltsin meant for best and he made political and economic fields in Russia more open and privatized many russian companys who quickly emerged international stock successes but people had unrealistic expectations from him and seriosly he had garguanting job because transforming wreck that was Soviet russia into succesfull democratic russia was very unthankful work. Common people blamed mistakes on him and didnt approve his successes, Putin was excatly person than commoners longed and now russians have leader they wanted, but its too late for regret at this point… votes are heavily rigged and opposition is strictly controlled by Putins regime, strong opposotion leaders are constantly harassed and under watch. Putin appoints his own men to position of power all over nation, russians showed that they are fed up with this in latest goverment elections and managed to undermine Putins popularity by voting opposition partys with greater number than ever and even massive riots were organized.
This was wake up call for Putin and whatever there is left of democracy in Russia is quickly vanishing under Putins totaliratarian regime, legally Russia is democracy but how can democracy even work when media is tightly controlled by ruling party, opposition is fragmented and terrorized constantly, voting is heavily rigged and laws make protesting a heavy crime and milise has open hands for arresting people who defy Putin.
With every passing year Putin is tightening his grip on Russia he gains more room to act how he wishes, he is becoming increasingly aggresive on international scheme by openly threatning and opposing UN decicions openly creating an atmosphere of 'Them' and 'Us' (West vs Russia) promiting Russias emerge of 'super power'. He is militirazing nation rapidly by throwing massive amounts of money to re-modernize russian military even though military and nation itself is heavily corrupted and income diffrences between citizens are greater than ever before.
In my opinion Putin is quite a disaster for the world and specially for Russia itself, but its the leader russians longed and even if they start to regret it by now its quite too late by now, Putin has country in his iron grip and while I dont believe Cold war returning I think future international politics are becoming much more difficult to everyone.
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@Monkey:
Russia has a hard time of it.
Lesse about their rulers. How long between good ones?
Alexander I - Cool dude
Nicholas I - Shit
Alexander II - ok except for the genocide thing so…..Shit
Alexander III - Shit
Nicholas II - ShitHonestly from what I've read, the general conensus is Nicholas II was more incompetent then anything. He wasn't anywhere near the league of Nicholas I, who actively supported barring people from recieving education so they'd be unquestioningly loyal, and who threatened to uproot Warsaw and not let it be built up again, amongst other things.
Realy, if you're going to argue about the bad aspects of Nicholas II's and Alexander III's reign, you should look towards Konstantin Pobedonostsev and his "Holier then thou" doctrine of anti democratic dogmatism.
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@Monkey:
the three of them all presided over the long slow death of the USSR primarily, plus some other things like the war in Afghanistan and crushing of the Prague Spring that No Maam will assure you makes Breshnev shit.
And Nolus could probably attest to the whole 1956 thing wasn't realy all that great either.
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@Monkey:
He's the guy who lead the Provisional Government after the end of the monarchy but before the Bolsheviks took over. Basically ineffectual and brushed aside with little effort. Plus he still didn't take Russia out of WW1 which was retarded.
Actualy, I've always wondered if Russia remained in the war for one more year, it'd effectively be on the winner's side wouldn't it ? So you'd probably get alot of what was invested into the war back in reparations, plus Russia wouldn't voluntarily give up territory to Germany.
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Khrushchev had good ideas, he just had incredibly horrible timing. Protip, denouncing Stalin while the majority of the original Bolsheviks were still alive isn't a very smart idea. Hell Gorbachev didn't start really tearing into Stalin until Kaganovich was safely dead, if I remember Lenin's Tomb correctly.
Brezhnev was a senile, backwards Stalin cocksucker who is largely responsible for Khrushchev's attempted reforms failing.
Andropov was the former KGB head, so no question about his shitiness. Also he was the one who told Khrushchev to crush the Hungary uprising.
Cherneko lasted for 13 months and spent most of them dying in a hospital bed.
Gorbachev did great, even if most of what he accomplished was mostly by accident. He did install Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan though, but it was to replace an open mob boss so it's cool
Yeltsin was drunk for about 96% of his presidency, so it's no wonder the economy completely collapsed.
Putin was…well, Putin, and Medvedev was his puppet.
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@No:
Honestly from what I've read, the general conensus is Nicholas II was more incompetent then anything. He wasn't anywhere near the league of Nicholas I, who actively supported barring people from recieving education so they'd be unquestioningly loyal, and who threatened to uproot Warsaw and not let it be built up again, amongst other things.
Realy, if you're going to argue about the bad aspects of Nicholas II's and Alexander III's reign, you should look towards Konstantin Pobedonostsev and his "Holier then thou" doctrine of anti democratic dogmatism.
Alexander III was a reactionary beast, he was a shit leader to be sure.
And Nicholas II was HUGELY incompetent and even just kind of an idiot, he was probably one of the worst major leaders of the 20th century. If that doesn't earn him the title of "Shit" I don't know what does.
And Nolus could probably attest to the whole 1956 thing wasn't realy all that great either.
That's why he gets an "ehhhh" though. The irony of Hungary was that it only happened because of thawing Khrushchev let happened in the first place. You have to understand the transition from Stalin is an extreme good thing that he did, even though he was a Shit in other ways, a major Shit, he did do some really good stuff that were sort of proto-Gorbachev.
For instance I don't think Khrushchev would necessarily have crushed the Prague Spring. Hungary was a revolution, Prague was just political thawing.Actualy, I've always wondered if Russia remained in the war for one more year, it'd effectively be on the winner's side wouldn't it ? So you'd probably get alot of what was invested into the war back in reparations, plus Russia wouldn't voluntarily give up territory to Germany.
Staying in the war was so unpopular that it's thought to be one of the reasons the Bosheviks were able to pull their coup so easily. The transitional government was not popular when it fell.
And considering the areas Russia lost have another name….namely Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...? -
@Monkey:
Staying in the war was so unpopular that it's thought to be one of the reasons the Bosheviks were able to pull their coup so easily. The transitional government was not popular when it fell.
And considering the areas Russia lost have another name….namely Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...?I know, just looking at it from Russia's POV.
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Let's not forget that Krushchev was behind the treading behemoth war tank, the Shagohod
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Egypt's Parliament Dissolved By Court; Election Ruled Unconstitutional
God damn it what a fucked up situation for Egypt… seems like there is only a bad options avaivable (Military junta/Mubarak era rule/Brotherhood control). Pro liberal/democratic elements that started whole revolt over year ago are a minority for each option and rioting will not solve problems this time I fear.
Installing democracy to nations that never really had it is pretty damn difficult.
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Fuck it fuck it fuck it fuck it fuck it.
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The army has been doing shady manoeuvring since the beginning. Trying to instigate conflict between the religious groups, chaos, etc.. to stay in rule.
Sigh.. I hoped those signs would be the last death throes of the regime.Why can't they just take notes from modern countries and do the same. It never comes easy isn't it?
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This is going to create a shitstorm.
But you know this really does make all the lost lives in Libya seem to have meant something though. Libya has lots of problems with order right now, and it had to endure a miserable bloody war, but it liquidated the old guard. They're gone.
Egypt never did this. And now as we've feared, they're paying the price.But the shitstorm, people are going to be pissed. Lots of people. Not even just those liberal democrats.
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Egypt's going to be the Moldova of this whole thing, isn't it
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@Cyan:
Egypt's going to be the Moldova of this whole thing, isn't it
Egypt's gonna be the Russia.
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Well, Tunisia's clearly the Poland.
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@Cyan:
Well, Tunisia's clearly the Poland.
I'm so pissed off I can't even find your guys' comments amusing. At all.
Fuck this.
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@No:
I'm so pissed off I can't even find your guys' comments amusing. At all.
Fuck this.
Those aren't jokes really, we're drawing comparisons between this Revolutionary Wave and your one, the last one. The Fall of Communism.
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Russia is sending a contingent of troops in to protect their port at Tartus.
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Russia is sending a contingent of troops in to protect their port at Tartus.
This is basically just Putin unzipping his fly and letting it flop out.
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In egypt both Morsi and Shafiq claim to be the victorious party. It's looking very close. Close enough for the military to illegally push it in its favoured direction. I have a terrible feeling a revolution redux might be upon us.
Russia is sending a contingent of troops in to protect their port at Tartus.
Meanwhile the UN is arguing over the terminology of calling or not calling the situation in Syria a Civil War. Getting your priorities right.
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In egypt both Morsi and Shafiq claim to be the victorious party. It's looking very close. Close enough for the military to illegally push it in its favoured direction. I have a terrible feeling a revolution redux might be upon us.
Meanwhile the UN is arguing over the terminology of calling or not calling the situation in Syria a Civil War. Getting your priorities right.
Do you have any thoughts on why Egypt seems to be having so much more trouble than you are?
Both of you had similar revolutions, and if anything there's was more of an upheavel. But they can't get shit right! Whereas you guys are sailing smoothly all things considered (bitchy Salafis aside).–- Update From New Post Merge ---
lolllll
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/18/calvinball_in_cairo -
@Monkey:
lolllll
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/18/calvinball_in_cairoVery very insightful article, I agree completely. The only good thing I see in the Egyptian political game right now, is that it is a POLITICAL game (the army can't afford to not take the people into consideration, and go full dictatorship).
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Mubarak is "clinically dead" after a stroke.
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Must be a real shock to the system to have to forgo all the creature comforts of being an autocrat for so many decades and get shoved in a prison cell awaiting trial for all of your heinous crimes
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@Monkey:
Mubarak is "clinically dead" after a stroke.
Isn't it amazing how often people who once dethroned from important positions and are being held accountable suddenly come down with something fatal?
I'm not being too cynical am I?
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I think we can officially call bullshit on Mubarak's stroke. The scriptwrites in Egypt should be fired, since they obviously just copied the obviously fake Ben Ali's stroke story from february. It's just one of those guileful moves to spare Mubarak from jail. This could be a sign that Morsi might be in the lead in the elections and they are afraid he would let Mubarak rot in jail forever. But it looks like we will have to wait for the results of this one a bit more. It seems there were problems with counting the ballots. Prepare yourselves for a fresh new round of Calvinball.
On another note, Russia really enjoys acting like a giant dick but Britain is a party pooper and stops it from shipping dozens of attack helicopters to Syria.
@Monkey:Do you have any thoughts on why Egypt seems to be having so much more trouble than you are?
Both of you had similar revolutions, and if anything there's was more of an upheavel. But they can't get shit right! Whereas you guys are sailing smoothly all things considered (bitchy Salafis aside).I don't really know, the only thing that strikes me here is the differences when it comes to the military.With Israel next door I can see how it plays a completely different role and tries to cling to its power. Compare it to the military of a tiny ass state like Tunisia, which doesn't have that much of an importance.
I also think the nature of the two regimes was different. It might have looked very similar from the outside, but Mubarak an Ben Ali played it differently. While in Tunisia the regime was kinda comically obvious, especially when it came to the 99% elections and the media (news in Tunisia always, and I MEAN FUCKING ALWAYS, even during 9/11, started with a segment of Ben Ali doing "important business/signing contracts" for the country), Mubarak was keeping the reins a bit more loose. The media was actually able to speak up atleast a little bit against Mubarak. It was more of a give and take and people in the higher ranks of society seem to have actually arranged with it, with some even embracing it. So while most of the corruption in Tunisia was concentrated in this giant blob of Ben Ali/Trabelsis, in Egypt things spread though the whole system. When Ben Ali and his wench made a run, the whole regime broke apart, whereas in Egypt Mubarak apparently didn't play half as much of a central role. Things were a lot more complicated in Egypt from the get-go in my opinion. And yeah, fuck those Salafis. -
The scriptwrites in Egypt should be fired
At a guess, the plot will be: Mubarak declared clinically dead after stroke, Mubarak's lawyers argue that this constitutes life imprisonment, Hosni makes miracle recovery?
I know the United States issues sentences that vastly exceed the human lifespan just to avoid that scenario, but do other countries do that as well?
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On another note, Russia really enjoys acting like a giant dick but Britain is a party pooper and stops it from shipping dozens of attack helicopters to Syria.
ahahahahaa good one UK.
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I think we can officially call bullshit on Mubarak's stroke. The scriptwrites in Egypt should be fired, since they obviously just copied the obviously fake Ben Ali's stroke story from february. It's just one of those guileful moves to spare Mubarak from jail. This could be a sign that Morsi might be in the lead in the elections and they are afraid he would let Mubarak rot in jail forever. But it looks like we will have to wait for the results of this one a bit more. It seems there were problems with counting the ballots. Prepare yourselves for a fresh new round of Calvinball.
On another note, Russia really enjoys acting like a giant dick but Britain is a party pooper and stops it from shipping dozens of attack helicopters to Syria.
I don't really know, the only thing that strikes me here is the differences when it comes to the military.With Israel next door I can see how it plays a completely different role and tries to cling to its power. Compare it to the military of a tiny ass state like Tunisia, which doesn't have that much of an importance.
I also think the nature of the two regimes was different. It might have looked very similar from the outside, but Mubarak an Ben Ali played it differently. While in Tunisia the regime was kinda comically obvious, especially when it came to the 99% elections and the media (news in Tunisia always, and I MEAN FUCKING ALWAYS, even during 9/11, started with a segment of Ben Ali doing "important business/signing contracts" for the country), Mubarak was keeping the reins a bit more loose. The media was actually able to speak up atleast a little bit against Mubarak. It was more of a give and take and people in the higher ranks of society seem to have actually arranged with it, with some even embracing it. So while most of the corruption in Tunisia was concentrated in this giant blob of Ben Ali/Trabelsis, in Egypt things spread though the whole system. When Ben Ali and his wench made a run, the whole regime broke apart, whereas in Egypt Mubarak apparently didn't play half as much of a central role. Things were a lot more complicated in Egypt from the get-go in my opinion. And yeah, fuck those Salafis.It's not entirely unheard of for people who are overthrown like this to die soon after, or a few years. Stress and all that can do a lot to a body, especially when lots of these dudes are usually oldish men like Mubarak. Stress is a killer, it's like a Mario starman for diseases.
Few examples of dictators I can think of..
-Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, overthrown basically in 1986, dies in 1989
-Mobutu of the Congo, overthrown in 1997, dies the same year.
-Shah of Iran, overthrown in 1979, dies in 1980
-Napoleon III, last dictator of France, overthrown in 1870, dies in 1871.But your theory is pretty interesting, there's so many elites left in power I wouldn't put it past such a conspiracy at all.
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Uh.....Syria just shot down a Turkish fighter jet.
In case people don't remember....Turkey is a NATO member.
EDIT: Also Chrissie is telling me that her likely corrupt president is considering letting the Russians open a base on Cyprus (Cyprus has a fuckton of debt with them). Which may be a sign that Russia is already looking elsewhere for a base in the area, the one in Syria is largely considered on of their main reasons for being assholes about everything so this is good news (though not for poor Cyprus).
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I just realized China must be freaked out by the fact that they can't ever do Tiananmen Square again thanks to modern technology.
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I thought Mohammeh Reza died due to cancer ?
Also, Benghazi unilateraly declared itself the autonomous "State of Cyrenaica" a couple of days ago. I wonder what barkuma's reaction to this is.
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There has been a spike in protests in North Sudan over a variety of shit. Apparently regime change is one of these issues.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/06/20126244252970652.html"]http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/06/20126244252970652.html@No:
I thought Mohammeh Reza died due to cancer ?
That's what I'm talking about. They didn't die of stress, stress hastened negative health, this is well known thing. Many of these men lose a sort of will to live, and the body gives way.
Also, Benghazi unilateraly declared itself the autonomous "State of Cyrenaica" a couple of days ago. I wonder what barkuma's reaction to this is.
This has been going on for awhile, it's not them seceding or anything, it's a desire for federalism.
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@Monkey:
There has been a spike in protests in North Sudan over a variety of shit. Apparently regime change is one of these issues.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/06/20126244252970652.htmlThat's what I'm talking about. They didn't die of stress, stress hastened negative health, this is well known thing. Many of these men lose a sort of will to live, and the body gives way.
This has been going on for awhile, it's not them seceding or anything, it's a desire for federalism.
Well there's federalism and then there's Somaliland.
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@No:
Well there's federalism and then there's Somaliland.
Right, that's secession. Completely different.
You're talking to a Yank here No Maam, we are very familiar with the difference. -
@Monkey:
Right, that's secession. Completely different.
You're talking to a Yank here No Maam, we are very familiar with the difference.Sorry, I totaly confused Somaliland for Puntland.
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@No:
Sorry, I totaly confused Somaliland for Puntland.
Puntland says it would join up with a stabilized Somalia.
Somaliland actually wants to be independent. And frankly should. It has more claim to it than South Sudan ever did. They're already a successful country all things considered. And being as most African countries are based on colonial borders there's really nor reason that British Somaliland (Somaliland) should HAVE to be with Italian Somliland (rest of Somalia). Especially when French Somaliland is independent (Djibouti). -
Syria tried to shoot down another Turkish jet.
Turkey has invoked Article 4 of the NATO charter, which allows a member to call a meeting when that nation feels that its territory or sovereignty is threatened. Article 4 primarily deals with political and economic sanctions. Article 5 is the one that deals with military response.
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Syria tried to shoot down another Turkish jet.
No fuckin' way
checks Al Jazeera
HOWY SHIT
Are they for fuckin' real.
Are they just cocky? Or stupid? -
I though tthis was old news to every one in this thread already…I am really shifting in my seat to see where this is going.... Erdogan's tone changed over these couple of days. the first day they searched for the jet together (Syria and Turkey), and Syria sounded seriously apologetic, now the mood changed.
Also Morsi made it in Egypt with 51,7 percent. He will have a tough time for sure but atleast the military didn't get even more power shifted into their hands. But hey they already cut off a big chunk of Morsi's powers before he even started this president job. It's a pretty shitty situation all in all. -
I though tthis was old news to every one in this thread already…I am really shifting in my seat to see where this is going.... Erdogan's tone changed over these couple of days.
We knew about the first one, there's a SECOND one now!
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wait man let me check this is hilarious…I think Syria's getting really desperate now shit.
-okay I wonder how they are going to explain this one. I know a couple of Syrian Pilots are trying to escape but you can only have this many accidents before things turn obviously aggressive and Turkey loses its patience.
In general I wonder if this whole business could actually change the tide in Syria when the NATO has a legitimate reason to step in. Doubt it tough.