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Thread: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

  1. #21

    Default Re: The second video game crash debate

    Quote Originally Posted by Gia Sado View Post
    Rockstar, Kojima Productions, Naughty Dog, Clover Studios, Level 5, and Atlas are some the best companies that still take pride in their games.
    Don't you mean Platinum Games?

  2. #22

    Default Re: The second video game crash debate

    I don't think the guy understands why the first videogame crash happened in the first place. The reasons and conditions were quite different.

  3. #23

    Default Re: The second video game crash debate

    yeah, even as someone who's far from being a video game industry expert, I can easily see how full of shit the author of this is.
    How can you simplify all this in such an insultingly short prediction? Sure, fans are annoying twats; gaming, comics and series communities doesn't matter, but that's pretty much how it's always been. Status quo that you as a publisher need to learn to adapt to and deal with. If publishers like EA are doing their best to not listen to their consumers, then they don't need to be surprised when reality starts to bite them in the ass, and no one wants to buy their shitty products?
    Remember what happened with Sim City 5? Am I supposed to feel sorry for that, a publisher that proved utmost incompetence and no will/almost no interest in dealing with the problem and taking steps of fixing the issue? A company that thinks they can implement things like always on RDM, and not even have it work (as is turns out, you have to change two fucking files for Sim City 5 to change from always on to off), a company that has been voted twice as worst american company by the consumerist and reacts to it like this?; http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertco...america-title/

    and asking for people to stop getting rental games, really? That's such an immensely arrogant statement I don't even know what to say.
    publishers deserve everything that's coming to them, that's what you get for acting like greedy dicks.


  4. #24
    All day, every day TakinawaTonfa's Avatar
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    Default Re: The second video game crash debate

    Quote Originally Posted by Gekko135 View Post
    The thread's title should be changed to:

    "Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry"
    Well I was gonna go with "Lifeless, brain-dead, more than likely trilby-wearing social media thumper makes a shitty attempt for a profound statement of shaming well established consumer side habits based on what could only be a single thread of information" but I guess your title works well too.

    But yeah, as we've said before, that whole statement is full of shit for the reasons that have already been pointed out. Especially the whole DON'T BUY USED GAMES angle which has already been smacked down countless times (hell, in some cases, developers don't see profit from new games at all) not to mention we're dealing with an industry that's worth tens of billions and relatively young in comparison to other media.

    If anything is going to hurt the industry, its publishers who get too greedy when the opportunity arises and set unrealistic expectations for their products to sell (See SE's statements about Tomb Raider and Capcom about Darkstalkers).







    They expect to sell eleventy-jillion copies

    while eating pie without utensils

    and their pies smell like farts.

  5. #25

    Default Re: The second video game crash debate

    Quote Originally Posted by Gekko135 View Post
    The thread's title should be changed to:

    "Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry"
    Did/ are you able to change the name o threads as you please??
    WHAT!!!
    GO AWAY!!

  6. #26

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    We should all be thankful that you're friend has no say/sway over the video game industry lest anyone should take him/her seriously.

  7. #27

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    I will continue to by used games AND pirate a little bit, as long as they continue to have a very limited amount of copies in stores, as long as they keep the price so high years after launch, and don't make it available on the Playstation store.
    FMA 03> FMA Brotherhood

  8. #28
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    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Old article and a tad late, but anything blaming piracy and the used market for the current industry woes should be met with nothing but ridicule, mockery, and questioning as what is their reasoning. Shit more people have pirated and bootlegged movies and music for DECADES and it's been claimed that it would kill the industry since as far back as the 80's, yet both industries are still going on strong. Jim Sterling of runs a show called Jimquisition over at The Escapist which touches upon this topic several times.
    Last edited by doomrider7; July 28th, 2013 at 07:14 PM.

  9. #29

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    The graphics arms race and the continually growing development cost (8 digits USD and still going on up!) will have the industry collapse on itself eventually*. Or at least the major console title part of the industry.

    *consider that the price tag of a game has been relatively stable over the past couple of decades while console game development has gone from 6 digits USD in the 16-bit era to 8 digits, circa PS3/Xbox 360. And the # of customers most likely isn't increasing at the same rate.

  10. #30
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Motion capture, celebrity voice acting (va in general actually), and marketing are just as much a money sink as graphics, if not more. You can make good looking games on a relatively small budget.

  11. #31

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Motion capture and celebrity voice acting, sure. Although non-celeb voice acting is an order of magnitude cheaper than celeb. Or two orders, if we compare celeb against guild standard rates.
    Advertisement is its own beast that's not counted when dev costs are cited. They're their own thing that can go easily into 8 digits USD for the blockbuster stuff. Like how Modern Warfare 2 was cited to have a development cost of 40-50 million USD, but with marketing + disc production/distribution added, total cost went up to 200 million.

  12. #32

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    I predict that a video game market crash like the one that happened in the early 80's will happen in the next 5-10 years but I have serious doubts that home consoles will ever recover.
    There are currently so many console owners in the world, that even if all the current console manufacturers disappeared due to a crash, someone else will still end making a new console after, simply because there was such a large demand before. It may not become as big anymore, but it will still be there.
    As long as people love gaming, gaming platforms will not die out even if there is a crash.

    Also the crash on the 80ís turned out to be better for gamers and the industry.

    Why? The fans. The consumer base has become so biased, hardheaded, and cheap that no matter what the industry tries to do it loses money and has to deal with pointless rage.
    It always was biased, hard headed and cheap.
    Itís just that now we have big megaphone to make everyone see how hard headed, biased and cheap we can be.
    And thatís a good thing.

    Between the HUGE loss of developer profits from piracy and the used game retail stores we will see even more companies file for bankruptcy just like THQ was forced to do.
    Yes.
    We certainly will see more crashes. Itís silly to think that businessís wont fail and burn sometimes.
    It sucks, but thatís the nature of running a business. Thereís a risk on it.


    I know many people are going to rage about how I fully blame the people who play video games for the entire industry crashing so let me point out a few things that will make it a bit clearer for you.

    Industry crashing due to the lack of support from the consumer base is not the issue here, thatís just the result.
    The issue is what made the consumer turn their backs on the first place.


    If a company has a long-standing series and they decide to change it they will be met with scorn and nerdrage causing a loss in sales due to mass spamming of negative reviews (often before the game has even been released.). If they don't change anything they will be met with scorn and nerdrage causing a loss in sales due to mass spamming of negative reviews (often before the game has even been released.).
    Games getting bad reviews and getting shit on buy fans donít always result on lost sails.
    Resident evil 6 was hated by critics and many fans for being different, but still sole 6 million copies, similar thing with Final Fantasy XIII.
    Ea Sports basically releases the same set of games every year, getís called out for it every year and the new FIFA is still the number one sold game on the UK every yearÖ

    The things they can get a way with are weird, but I still think that itís good thing that we have the change to complain when we can (even if its stupid sometimes). Itís never a good thing to show these guys too much love. They get too cocky too easily and then they do stupid things like Final Fantasy XIV. Tough love is good for them.

    If a company switches from making sequels of a long-running series to work on a new franchise they are met with scorn and nerdrage resulting in a loss of sales due to mass spamming of negative reviews (often before the game has even been released.) Again, the same thing happens if they do the exact opposite as well.
    I cant really think of a occasion when game developers where absolutely hated on for making new games, but whateverÖ I take your word for it.

    BecauseÖ well the thing isÖ we donít live in a perfect world, you know?
    When game company is spending time on one game, that is time taken away from another game they could also be working on, because they have limited resources and time. Sometimes that really gets to you and it really sucks.
    It can make you really upset, when you have to wait so long for a sequel to game you like.

    This isnít really a problem with the gamers and developers, itís more like a problem with gamers and realityÖ
    or somethingÖ

    I think you get the point.
    God, I hope not.

    If you truly want to get home console gaming around for years to come there are 3 things you will need to do:
    1. Buy the next console you like
    2. Buy games that you like for that console
    3. Share your gaming with the people you like.

    1. Stop condemning games before a demo is even released. A prime example of this is the DmC reboot. You picky-ass, snobish twats were raging about how "horrible" the game was BEFORE YOU EVEN HAD A FUCKING CHANCE TO PLAY IT ALL BECAUSE THEY CHANGED HOW THE MAIN CHARACTER LOOKED!
    Never ever do that, even if sometimes that complaining gets a bit stupid.
    Why?
    Xbox One.

    2. Stop pirating games. If you are so poor that you cannot afford to buy games then your broke ass should be out making money somehow instead of sitting in front of your tv/computer. Unfortunately many people fail to realize that playing video games is a L-U-X-U-R-Y and not a "god given right."
    If youre so poor, that you cant afford games, then you were never a customer to begin with. Meaning, the developers could have never gotten money from you, cause there wasn't any. So does it really matter if you choose to pirate or not?
    Gaming is a luxury, but something being a luxury does not translate to expensive.
    Wine is a luxury. You can spend money on cheap wine for few dollars or on a expensive wine with hundreds of dollars. Same applies for games, there are cheap games and expensive ones.
    Support what you love when you can and how you can. You canít do anything else.

    Side note: If piracy wasn't such a problem then developers wouldn't have to implement things like DRM into their games.
    Nice argument. However it falls flat when you think about how little drm actually does.
    Who really suffers from drm? Is it pirates or the paying customers?
    Hint: not the pirates.

    3. Stop buying used games. The developers see 0% percent of that money. The less money they make, the less money they can put towards new game development. The less money they can put towards new game development, the more likely it is they will simply stop making games in franchises that aren't selling well.
    I agree with youÖ kinda.
    Thing is, that used games was new ones. It has been bought and paid for and the developer got their money from it and the owner has to have their right to re-sell.
    However games are quite weird with this ďusedĒ thing. What is used game and how is your experience different with it compared to a new one? How does coding on a disc come used? And how does it become different from a new copy?

    There are lots of points against and for the used games market, but imho the important one is this:
    Do you want give most of your support to the people who made the game, the people who sold it to you or just yourself?

    Another note for this thing:
    Nintendo has said that their game sales arenít really affected by used games. Why? According to them its because they make good games that people want to keep and replay.
    If only that was the case with all developersÖ

    To end this on a rather painful but truthful note: Do you want to know the real reason why all those recent Megaman titles were cancelled? The market for them is dead. Yes, the few fans that remain are very (annoyingly and retardedly) vocal but compared to most of the other franchises Capcom has it is not worth wasting the money to make them since they will not sell enough copies. They would need at LEAST 2-2.5 million copies sold to make even a small amount of profit but they would be lucky to get just under a million mostly because many people would wait to buy it secondhand or would boycott it over some petty and minor change the developers implemented.
    I canít really speak for megaman, because itís one of those weird titles that I have no experience with. Like noneÖ I knowÖ I suckÖ.
    I do have couple of points though.

    Why do they have to make the game for 2.5 million fans that you say donít exist? Why cant they make it smaller for that much smaller fandom that does exist? It doesnít have to be gigantic game, if there is no market for it. Think your goals and budgets.
    This is the real problem we have with gaming now days. Lot of developers/publishers want all their games to sell 6 million copies, because reasons, even when everyone can tell that it wont happen. If there is going to be a gaming crash, itís going to happen to triple-a gaming. Luckily triple-a games donít represent the whole gaming industry.

    As for genre being deadÖ thatís bullshit.
    Not so many years ago point and click adventure games were supposedly a dead genre. Then Telltale pops up, starts making point and click adventure games, eventually makes the walking dead and is rolling on cash, praise and game of the year prices.
    There are no dead genres on gaming. Sometimes they disappear, but eventually they come back.
    Also, genres donít die because of one game is not getting made anymore. 2D platformers are still a thing. We just had a Mario game and Rayman is coming soon aswell, remember?


    I want a wise opnion on this question: Was delaying Rayman Legends by turning into a multi-platform title a good financial idea? Could they at least release early for Wii U and then to the other consoles?
    Not sure if wise, but stillÖ

    I cant think any reason what would have made it a bad idea.
    It will now reach much bigger audience and maybe make more money. It still looks great and people are excited. Itís also getting new content. I donít see downside there.
    They probably could have released for the WiiU first and help it's sales, however they would have had a risk of upsetting gamers if one console gets the game before others. There are a lot more gamers that can get pissed on the 5 other consoles then there are on the WiiU.
    Also ZombieU flopped. So they got scared.

  13. #33

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    You need only look at SE to see why the gaming industry would crash.

    They had games like Tomb Raider get great critical and fan receptions. They also sold like 4 million or so copies.

    Yet somehow they didnt' make any money and had to do a shit ton of restructuring due to that game, and I think Hitman's poor poorformance, which btw also sold like 4 million.

    That is what is wrong with the gaming industry. The companies are giving games too big of budgets. Plain and simple. If you can't make money on 1 million or more sales, then you are doing something wrong.

  14. #34

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Quote Originally Posted by Hinscher View Post
    You need only look at SE to see why the gaming industry would crash.

    They had games like Tomb Raider get great critical and fan receptions. They also sold like 4 million or so copies.

    Yet somehow they didnt' make any money and had to do a shit ton of restructuring due to that game, and I think Hitman's poor poorformance, which btw also sold like 4 million.

    That is what is wrong with the gaming industry. The companies are giving games too big of budgets. Plain and simple. If you can't make money on 1 million or more sales, then you are doing something wrong.
    Also we often hear reports about marketing budgets matching or exceeding the development budget. And in a world where a game like dark souls only sells about half as much as some of the aforementioned square titles and is a huge success I see no reason how those budgets can/should be justified.
    I mention dark souls because I seriously don't see any difference worth mentioning in production value compared to, for example, tomb raider.

  15. #35

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    My thing is it's hard to say companies are spending too much money on development costs when we seldom hear how much it costs to make a game. Even if the game is a huge seller, in the case of Tomb Raider though we're talking about a game that was about 4-5 years in the making unlike your COD's or Madden's. So who knows how much money was spent on the game and how many copies the game would've need to sell to turn a profit (though Square are the only ones stating the game's sales were disappointing). Also I think Square's restructuring efforts had more to do with legit disasters like FF14 than it it did Tomb Raider.
    Last edited by Green_vs_Red; July 30th, 2013 at 09:56 PM.

  16. #36

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    http://www.gamedesignideas.com/video...ublishing.html
    For those curious of an example of % of how budget is split up

    http://www.zippygamer.com/2010/03/th...nd-publishing/
    Essentially, that cites a ~30% return rate from price tag to developer/publisher.
    Assuming a list price of 50 USD and that return rate; 3.4 million sales should be a gross of 170 million USD. 30% of that is 51 million. Eh, nowadays I can believe AAA development budget being in that area. And who knows how much was poured into marketing.

    Edit:
    Now, I personally don't require all that much graphics. The lot of us here presumably don't demand all that much either.
    But honest question: Do you think that the general gaming audience shares similar sentiments?
    For example, the Wii U does gets slammed for being underpowered relative to other consoles. There is this general expectation of things (most of the time graphics) improving over time. I don't think that the current gaming audience at large would accept stagnation (nevermind going backwards); hence the arms race ever since the beginning.
    Last edited by Somewhere; August 1st, 2013 at 09:12 AM.

  17. #37

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Quote Originally Posted by Somewhere View Post
    Now, I personally don't require all that much graphics. The lot of us here presumably don't demand all that much either.
    But honest question: Do you think that the general gaming audience shares similar sentiments?
    For example, the Wii U does gets slammed for being underpowered relative to other consoles. There is this general expectation of things (most of the time graphics) improving over time. I don't think that the current gaming audience at large would accept stagnation (nevermind going backwards); hence the arms race ever since the beginning.
    Agreed, and I think this is the dark truth at the heart of the current conundrum. Many gamers like to claim that they "don't need fancy graphics," and to some extent it might be true...but how many times have you checked out a game and thought, "Wow, this looks like garbage." You don't know if the game is actually bad or not. In fact, it might be incredible, but you can't tell if you haven't played it, and the visual look is the quickest and most effective marketing tool that speaks directly to the buyer's subconscious. We've all undergone that decision process and arrived at a decision not to buy something because of the image we see, and if anyone claims they haven't, then they're lying either to us or to themselves.

    There are many different kinds of gamers out there, including some who just want to play Dwarf Fortress in ASCII characters and don't want anything else, but the vast VAST majority of us continue to play games because they continue to provide new things, new experiences that excite us. The difference between a "gamer" who is committed to their hobby and someone who played a few video games here and there (maybe tried Call of Duty or Mario Kart or Rock Band with their friends) but isn't spending money every few months to get something new, is that the former had an experience that they found thrilling and intoxicating, and they want MORE! We remember beating incredible bosses, seeing unforgettable scenes, having an experience we'd never had before, and we want that feeling of excitement again and again, and in order to continue pouring money into this hobby requires a good faith expectation that your average game will give you that euphoria. Otherwise you get fatigued by games that look the same as what you played two, three, five years ago, you grow jaded and eventually stop spending money on it.

  18. #38
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Carmack is talking at QuakeCon about a bunch of different issues in video games at the moment and I agree with some of the stuff he's talking about. Such as framerate should always take precedent over graphics. Having good graphics is all well and good (and I still think graphics shouldn't stagnate) but if it's running at 20 fps that's pretty abysmal. 60 fps should be a bigger thing next gen but it still seems that a lot of games are focusing on 30 fps.

  19. #39

    Default Re: Armchair analysis of the current state of the videogame industry

    Quote Originally Posted by Somewhere View Post
    http://www.gamedesignideas.com/video...ublishing.html For those curious of an example of % of how budget is split up http://www.zippygamer.com/2010/03/th...nd-publishing/ Essentially, that cites a ~30% return rate from price tag to developer/publisher. Assuming a list price of 50 USD and that return rate; 3.4 million sales should be a gross of 170 million USD. 30% of that is 51 million. Eh, nowadays I can believe AAA development budget being in that area. And who knows how much was poured into marketing. Edit: Now, I personally don't require all that much graphics. The lot of us here presumably don't demand all that much either. But honest question: Do you think that the general gaming audience shares similar sentiments? For example, the Wii U does gets slammed for being underpowered relative to other consoles. There is this general expectation of things (most of the time graphics) improving over time. I don't think that the current gaming audience at large would accept stagnation (nevermind going backwards); hence the arms race ever since the beginning.
    I think the criticism Nintendo gets on the Wii U being graphically underwhelming would be a lot less vocal if they didn't do the same thing with the Wii. I mean yeah putting that cheap tech in the system means lower costs for both Nintendo and the consumer. But when you put out a console that has graphical capabilities on par with the PS3 & 360 (which have been around for years) with the succesors to those systems coming out pretty soon. It's like you're deliberately shooting yourselves in the foot.

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